SP+ has Gophs at 17

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swingman

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TEAMRATINGOFFENSEDEFENSESPECIAL TEAMS
1. Ohio St. (7-1)29.847.5 (1)18.3 (15)0.7 (1)
2. Georgia (8-0)29.138.8 (8)9.9 (1)0.2 (33)
3. Alabama (7-1)26.742.8 (3)16.4 (10)0.3 (22)
4. Clemson (5-3)21.132.2 (46)11.2 (4)0.1 (41)
5. Michigan (7-1)20.835.9 (18)15.7 (8)0.6 (3)
6. Wisconsin (5-3)20.029.6 (64)10.0 (2)0.4 (14)
7. Texas A&M (6-2)19.735.0 (24)15.6 (7)0.4 (17)
8. Oklahoma (9-0)18.843.3 (2)25.0 (53)0.5 (7)
9. Florida (4-4)18.139.1 (7)20.5 (24)-0.5 (127)
10. Cincinnati (8-0)17.834.2 (30)16.3 (9)-0.1 (82)
11. Penn St. (5-3)17.631.8 (49)14.3 (5)0.2 (35)
12. Pittsburgh (6-2)16.536.4 (14)20.1 (21)0.3 (27)
13. Notre Dame (7-1)16.235.7 (21)19.5 (18)0.0 (69)
14. Michigan St. (8-0)15.733.0 (42)17.2 (12)-0.1 (87)
15. Auburn (6-2)15.533.7 (34)18.5 (16)0.3 (19)
16. Iowa St. (5-3)15.435.9 (17)20.6 (25)0.1 (52)
17. Minnesota (6-2)15.334.7 (25)19.4 (17)0.1 (56)
18. Iowa (6-2)15.225.9 (84)11.2 (3)0.5 (4)
19. Baylor (7-1)14.832.7 (44)18.2 (14)0.2 (29)
20. Tennessee (4-4)14.135.1 (23)21.4 (29)0.4 (13)
21. Ole Miss (6-2)14.139.5 (5)25.7 (59)0.3 (26)
22. N. Carolina (4-4)13.841.0 (4)27.2 (72)0.0 (67)
23. Oregon (7-1)13.736.5 (13)23.4 (44)0.5 (6)
24. Nebraska (3-6)13.634.1 (31)20.0 (19)-0.5 (128)
25. Miami (4-4)13.436.3 (15)23.0 (42)0.1 (39)
26. NC St. (6-2)13.231.1 (51)18.0 (13)0.2 (37)
27. Texas (4-4)12.537.3 (11)25.3 (57)0.5 (8)
28. Wake Forest (8-0)12.237.8 (10)25.7 (61)0.2 (34)
29. Arizona St. (5-3)12.134.0 (32)21.6 (31)-0.2 (103)
30. Utah (5-3)11.934.4 (27)22.0 (34)-0.5 (126)
31. Oklahoma St. (7-1)11.928.7 (69)16.8 (11)-0.1 (80)
32. Miss. St. (5-3)11.631.9 (47)20.0 (20)-0.3 (114)
33. Arkansas (5-3)11.333.2 (38)21.9 (33)0.0 (74)
34. Coastal Caro. (7-1)11.038.4 (9)27.4 (74)0.0 (68)
35. Virginia (6-3)10.839.4 (6)28.5 (80)0.0 (66)
36. Liberty (7-2)10.633.9 (33)23.1 (43)-0.2 (97)
37. Florida St. (3-5)9.533.5 (35)24.2 (49)0.3 (23)
38. Kansas St. (5-3)9.433.2 (39)23.8 (48)0.1 (51)
39. Va. Tech (4-4)9.130.7 (57)21.6 (32)0.1 (53)
40. Maryland (5-3)8.934.2 (29)25.2 (56)-0.1 (84)
41. Louisville (4-4)8.935.9 (16)27.1 (71)0.1 (57)
42. San Diego St. (7-1)8.823.2 (101)14.8 (6)0.4 (15)
43. Marshall (5-3)8.030.4 (58)22.3 (37)-0.2 (92)
44. Fresno St. (7-2)7.934.3 (28)26.4 (65)0.0 (76)
45. Kentucky (6-2)7.830.0 (60)22.3 (38)0.1 (42)
46. Purdue (5-3)7.328.7 (70)21.0 (26)-0.5 (122)
47. SMU (7-1)7.135.9 (19)28.5 (79)-0.3 (109)
48. W. Virginia (4-4)7.030.8 (56)23.7 (47)0.0 (71)
49. Syracuse (5-4)6.929.6 (65)22.3 (39)-0.4 (115)
50. USC (4-4)6.835.9 (20)29.1 (86)0.0 (58)
51. Boise St. (4-4)6.629.8 (62)23.5 (46)0.3 (21)
52. App. St. (6-2)6.631.7 (50)25.5 (58)0.4 (11)
53. LSU (4-4)6.633.5 (36)27.2 (73)0.3 (18)
54. BYU (7-2)6.434.5 (26)27.8 (77)-0.4 (116)
55. UCLA (5-4)6.135.6 (22)29.5 (89)0.0 (63)
56. UCF (5-3)5.933.3 (37)27.4 (75)0.1 (54)
57. Louisiana (7-1)5.630.9 (54)25.2 (55)-0.1 (86)
58. Ga. Tech (3-5)5.630.9 (55)25.2 (54)-0.1 (91)
59. Washington (4-4)5.528.1 (75)22.5 (40)-0.1 (85)
60. TCU (3-5)5.433.0 (41)27.7 (76)0.1 (47)
61. Indiana (2-6)5.328.2 (74)22.8 (41)-0.1 (89)
62. Nevada (6-2)5.131.0 (52)26.0 (63)0.1 (48)
63. Houston (7-1)5.028.6 (71)23.5 (45)-0.1 (88)
64. Oregon St. (5-3)4.636.8 (12)32.4 (108)0.3 (24)
65. Texas Tech (5-4)4.633.1 (40)28.9 (85)0.4 (10)
66. UAB (5-3)4.525.1 (91)20.3 (22)-0.3 (110)
67. UTSA (8-0)4.430.3 (59)26.0 (62)0.1 (44)
68. Boston Coll. (4-4)4.331.0 (53)26.8 (68)0.1 (50)
69. Rutgers (4-4)3.424.7 (94)21.1 (27)-0.2 (94)
70. California (3-5)3.429.9 (61)26.7 (67)0.2 (38)
71. Air Force (6-2)3.425.8 (85)22.2 (35)-0.3 (111)
72. Wash. St. (5-4)3.232.8 (43)29.7 (90)0.0 (59)
73. Missouri (4-4)2.632.2 (45)30.3 (96)0.6 (2)
74. WKU (4-4)2.531.8 (48)29.7 (91)0.4 (16)
75. Memphis (4-4)2.029.0 (68)27.0 (70)0.0 (75)
76. Toledo (4-4)1.523.9 (99)22.2 (36)-0.2 (96)
77. Wyoming (4-4)1.222.1 (105)20.4 (23)-0.4 (120)
78. Colorado St. (3-5)0.822.2 (104)21.6 (30)0.1 (43)
79. San Jose St. (5-4)0.725.4 (88)25.0 (51)0.2 (28)
80. S. Carolina (4-4)0.124.6 (95)25.0 (50)0.5 (9)
81. Army (4-3)0.026.9 (77)26.9 (69)0.0 (70)
82. Illinois (3-6)-0.424.2 (98)25.0 (52)0.4 (12)
83. FAU (5-3)-0.525.4 (89)25.7 (60)-0.2 (93
 

would be a pick em with Iowa on neutral field
would be 1.7 point dogs vs WI in MPLS
 



Wisconsins defense a shade below Georgia is shocking.
 


Ahead of nebraska. Love it. Keep Scunt Frost.
 







GVBadger said:
Their defense is really, really good. Shouldn’t be shocking.
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Georgia is on pace to be the best defense in 20 years with all 11 starters drafted. I don't know how SP+ works, as in whats the difference between 9.9 and 10.0, but I am shocked to see Wisconsin compared to what may be an all time defense.
 

noamfromm said:
Georgia is on pace to be the best defense in 20 years with all 11 starters drafted. I don't know how SP+ works, as in whats the difference between 9.9 and 10.0, but I am shocked to see Wisconsin compared to what may be an all time defense.
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The Badgers probably have 6 or 7 that will be drafted and are extremely well coached. Not really surprising.
 

Notice all the "prestige programs" that rank so much higher than the eye/resume test:

5-3 Clemson #4
5-3 Wisconsin #6
4-4 Florida #9
4-4 Tennessee #20
3-6 Nebraska #24
4-4 Miami #25
4-4 Texas #27
3-5 Florida St #35

I wonder if all these teams started the season ranked in the 50s if they still would be this high? Is Clemson just getting incredibly unlucky to score under 20 points in most of their games? Is Nebraska hiding a bunch of awesome in spite of not being able to beat anyone in their conference?
 



fmlizard said:
Notice all the "prestige programs" that rank so much higher than the eye/resume test:

5-3 Clemson #4
5-3 Wisconsin #6
4-4 Florida #9
4-4 Tennessee #20
3-6 Nebraska #24
4-4 Miami #25
4-4 Texas #27
3-5 Florida St #35

I wonder if all these teams started the season ranked in the 50s if they still would be this high? Is Clemson just getting incredibly unlucky to score under 20 points in most of their games? Is Nebraska hiding a bunch of awesome in spite of not being able to beat anyone in their conference?
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Preseason factors are baked into S&P

like “talent”

Basically they cook the formula to have traditional powers ranked higher. And it is usually correct because it’s college football.
 

17 is the best defensive ranking I can remember. Next week breaks right and they might be favored at Iowa.
 

I read a quick description of S&P+ online, and if I understand it correctly, it actually does not factor in whether or not a team wins a game. It wasn't a formal readout of the math, so maybe some nuance was glossed over, but if I'm right, that explains how a team as bad as Nebraska gets so much love.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I read a quick description of S&P+ online, and if I understand it correctly, it actually does not factor in whether or not a team wins a game. It wasn't a formal readout of the math, so maybe some nuance was glossed over, but if I'm right, that explains how a team as bad as Nebraska gets so much love.
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Correct. It only looks at individual plays, not the result of any given game. It calculates its own post-game win expectancy which is different from the actual outcome.
 

hello-world said:
Correct. It only looks at individual plays, not the result of any given game. It calculates its own post-game win expectancy which is different from the actual outcome.
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So that explains why a bad team like Nebraska never seems to be punished for losing games.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
So that explains why a bad team like Nebraska never seems to be punished for losing games.
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The counterpoint to that argument is that Nebraska probably isn't as bad as their record. (For example, they probably should have beat Minnesota).
 

hello-world said:
The counterpoint to that argument is that Nebraska probably isn't as bad as their record. (For example, they probably should have beat Minnesota).
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They are exactly as good as their record. Part of the game is putting up yards, but part of it is finding ways to finish in close games. There is clearly some part of football they are failing at that results in them continuously losing.
 

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