SP+ has Gophs 23rd

Donate To GopherHole
Pompous Elitist said:
The Bowling Green game you forgot about is a bad loss. I can’t recall the basic SP+ algorithm off the top of my head but strength of opponent factors into the ratings.

Special teams is a weak spot for us, would be interested to see the subset factors for that. I have some suspicions.
Click to expand...
Gophs are probably ranked 11 or 12 with a BG win.
 

Rescooter said:
The real surprise is undefeated Michigan State at 21 (behind Nebraska), undefeated Wake Forest at 37, and undefeated SMU at 53 (one ahead of terrible Syracuse). That's a tough strength of schedule discount.
Click to expand...
There's a big "prove it" type quality to SP+.
 

With scores for Clemson and Nebraska I am wondering if they add in recruiting rankings. Only way they could be counted this high, this late in the season.
 

gophernut1 said:
With scores for Clemson and Nebraska I am wondering if they add in recruiting rankings. Only way they could be counted this high, this late in the season.
Click to expand...
They do. They normalize for “talent”

they normalize for SOS

their SOS rating bakes in the “talent” rating.


so they double count in their formula. Which basically makes the formula non mathematical. They do this because ranking just based on efficiency would yield odd results. They basically bake this into the formula to make it more accurate as a predictive measure.
 

Regarding SP+ shortcoming of course it isn’t perfect but it’s far more objective than the eye test or wins and losses. Luck also plays a role.

SP+ noticed Iowa was laughably overrated, for example. Fair to argue, and ultimately things should be settled on the field (not a committee…)
 


23rd puts us one spot higher than where we finished 2016

kind of had adjusted for Gophers tough schedule and close losses in 2015 when Gophers were 6-7, but SP+ had them at #46.
 


Boomtime said:
Not surprising, tho. The only good offensive team we faced shredded our defense.
Click to expand...
If I'm not mistaken, Nebraska, Purdue, and Maryland are all in the top half of the B1G in offensive efficiency. So if you thought they were bad, wait until you get a load of the teams MN plays from here on out. You'll be VERY unimpressed.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Regarding SP+ shortcoming of course it isn’t perfect but it’s far more objective than the eye test or wins and losses. Luck also plays a role.

SP+ noticed Iowa was laughably overrated, for example. Fair to argue, and ultimately things should be settled on the field (not a committee…)
Click to expand...
I can’t believe you said SP+ was more objective than wins and losses but then said it should be settled on the field

Lol
 



MGGopher said:
If I'm not mistaken, Nebraska, Purdue, and Maryland are all in the top half of the B1G in offensive efficiency. So if you thought they were bad, wait until you get a load of the teams MN plays from here on out. You'll be VERY unimpressed.
Click to expand...
Everything you said is true, until you look at each of the three games you referenced.

Purdue game weather limited Purdue's offense, Maryland was missing their top two receivers to injury, and Martinez is Nebraska's only threat.
Now, NW has injuries to key offensive guys after losing their best rb before the season started, Illinois loses their starting QB for the season, and Iowa wins with defense.

The "stars are aligned" for the Gopher defense to put up some really good stats in the next three games.

Sometimes a unit just gets lucky.

Good for us fans.
 

Some guy said:
I can’t believe you said SP+ was more objective than wins and losses but then said it should be settled on the field

Lol
Click to expand...

You think poll rankings and w/l after week 7 have high predictive value for season end record at this point in the season? Many teams start strong and flounder later and vice versa.By the end of the season the data points for wins and losses are a little more accurate and the champion is determined on the field and not by polls or a statistics exercise, but SP+ and similar systems fill in the picture a little bit and as I said are more informative IMO this time of year. In other words, the accuracy of both SP+ and record will converge some by the end of the year, but there are a lot more data points supporting SP+ in terms of future predictive value right now. Neither tells the whole story, as I said.
 

Boomtime said:
Not surprising, tho. The only good offensive team we faced shredded our defense.
Click to expand...
And our offense scored just 10 points against the worst defense it faced this year.
 

matt said:
And our offense scored just 10 points against the worst defense it faced this year.
Click to expand...

Is their a coaching SP+? Maybe should be? Things like mind-boggling play choices or design, time management, dumb penalties, punting from an opponents 36 yard line, and overall team performance could be factors, and vice versa.
 



matt said:
And our offense scored just 10 points against the worst defense it faced this year.
Click to expand...
And...?????

The recent discussion is in regards to the performance of the Gophers defense.
 


Pompous Elitist said:
You think poll rankings and w/l after week 7 have high predictive value for season end record at this point in the season? Many teams start strong and flounder later and vice versa.By the end of the season the data points for wins and losses are a little more accurate and the champion is determined on the field and not by polls or a statistics exercise, but SP+ and similar systems fill in the picture a little bit and as I said are more informative IMO this time of year. In other words, the accuracy of both SP+ and record will converge some by the end of the year, but there are a lot more data points supporting SP+ in terms of future predictive value right now. Neither tells the whole story, as I said.
Click to expand...
I don’t disagree with you. I just think it’s funny the way you put it.

what are you going to say when Nebraska finishes 4-8 and is SP+ top 40?
 

Some guy said:
I don’t disagree with you. I just think it’s funny the way you put it.

what are you going to say when Nebraska finishes 4-8 and is SP+ top 40?
Click to expand...

I’ll say they were unlucky as hell, or genuinely good at shooting themselves in the foot.

I mean you have to feel a little bit bad for Frost, don’t you? Don’t answer that, lol.

I’m not going to fight this to the death but year after year SP+ has been pretty informative, overall.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
I’ll say they were unlucky as hell, or genuinely good at shooting themselves in the foot.

I mean you have to feel a little bit bad for Frost, don’t you? Don’t answer that, lol.

I’m not going to fight this to the death but year after year SP+ has been pretty informative, overall.
Click to expand...
Yeah I agree

As long as people admit it is a predictive tool,
Not an evaluation of a quality season.


that’s what bothers me:
I have no issue with a predictive tool saying Nebraska is pretty good. But if you start selling me they’re the actual 20th best team in the country I’m out
 

Some guy said:
Yeah I agree

As long as people admit it is a predictive tool,
Not an evaluation of a quality season.


that’s what bothers me:
I have no issue with a predictive tool saying Nebraska is pretty good. But if you start selling me they’re the actual 20th best team in the country I’m out
Click to expand...

Well yeah but we do that all the time. MN lost to Bowling Green. Black mark but people still think they’re pretty good for various reasons. I remember TCU 2013 had a 4-8 year but were ranked 31 in SP+ and had a bunch of close losses. Sure enough, they kicked our butts the next season and had a great year.

Nebraska might actually be a top 25 team if enough games were played. I don’t know. Teams move up and down the SP+ rankings every year so they are only near term predictors at best.
 


Pompous Elitist said:
Well yeah but we do that all the time. MN lost to Bowling Green. Black mark but people still think they’re pretty good for various reasons. I remember TCU 2013 had a 4-8 year but were ranked 31 in SP+ and had a bunch of close losses. Sure enough, they kicked our butts the next season and had a great year.

Nebraska might actually be a top 25 team if enough games were played. I don’t know. Teams move up and down the SP+ rankings every year so they are only near term predictors at best.
Click to expand...
The problem is college football has always been a sport where not enough games are played. One fluke loss has cost you a national championship for the entirety of the sport. That’s what makes the college football regular season different from everything else.
 

Boomtime said:
Everything you said is true, until you look at each of the three games you referenced.

Purdue game weather limited Purdue's offense, Maryland was missing their top two receivers to injury, and Martinez is Nebraska's only threat.
Now, NW has injuries to key offensive guys after losing their best rb before the season started, Illinois loses their starting QB for the season, and Iowa wins with defense.

The "stars are aligned" for the Gopher defense to put up some really good stats in the next three games.

Sometimes a unit just gets lucky.

Good for us fans.
Click to expand...
Martinez is Nebraska's only threat? They rank near the top of the conference in pretty much every single offensive category.

Dude, find another hobby, trolling here is just making you look kind of sad at this point. Is your hatred for the Gophers that high that you can't find anything better to do with your time then to come here and try and tear the program down for the flimsiest of reasons?

Suppose in your world we should put an * next to each win since clearly there was some factor at play that made it possible for us to win the game above and beyond the way the team actually played.
 
Last edited:

Rescooter said:
The real surprise is undefeated Michigan State at 21 (behind Nebraska), undefeated Wake Forest at 37, and undefeated SMU at 53 (one ahead of terrible Syracuse). That's a tough strength of schedule discount.
Click to expand...
I actually think 21 is far closer to where MSU should be ranked as opposed to their current top 10 ranking. They have had a crazy soft schedule to this point and haven't looked like a top 10 team in a lot of those games.
 


MGGopher said:
If I'm not mistaken, Nebraska, Purdue, and Maryland are all in the top half of the B1G in offensive efficiency. So if you thought they were bad, wait until you get a load of the teams MN plays from here on out. You'll be VERY unimpressed.
Click to expand...
Nebraska had some crazy high scoring % in the red zone.

Then they played us ;)
 

Boomtime said:
And...?????

The recent discussion is in regards to the performance of the Gophers defense.
Click to expand...

Defense is beating down good offenses. Must be tough for you to deal with.
 



MNVCGUY said:
Martinez is Nebraska's only threat? They rank near the top of the conference in pretty much every single offensive category.

Dude, find another hobby, trolling here is just making you look kind of sad at this point. Is your hatred for the Gophers that high that you can't find anything better to do with your time then to come here and try and tear the program down for the flimsiest of reasons?

Suppose in your world we should put an * next to each win since clearly there was some factor at play that made it possible for us to win the game above and beyond the way the team actually played.
Click to expand...
I think the fact that I'm looking at statistics and results from a little more objective POV is wearing on some people?

Doesn't matter. When all is said and done, the record will speak for itself.
 

Boomtime said:
I think the fact that I'm looking at statistics and results from a little more objective POV is wearing on some people?

Doesn't matter. When all is said and done, the record will speak for itself.
Click to expand...
lol....yeah....it is your objective POV that is wearing on people.....thanks.....needed a chuckle this morning.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom