Penn State has a really good defense. The only team to get more than one touchdown against them so far is Michigan. Their only opponents with more than 100 net yards rushing are Michigan and Buffalo. It will be hard to get yards on the ground against them. Comparatively, they're okay against the pass, but not elite. For the running game to get going, and we will need rushing yardage to some extent if we are going to pull the upset, then we need to give Morgan time to get the ball in the air for some early completions. If we can get the passing game in tune in the first quarter and make the Nittany Lions use more defenders in pass coverage, there's a chance to get some space to run. We are underdogs for a reason, but have plenty of chances to pull this off if we play well early and don't get stuck in the mud by falling too far behind.
Our schedule so far has been knocked as soft and objectively that isn't a lie. It wasn't intentionally meant to be that poor, but Fresno State, Nebraska, and to a lesser extent Maryland have played below expectations, our hardest games wound up back loaded into November, and a forgiving schedule rotation has enabled us to skip Ohio State (arguably the best team in the nation), Michigan (having a good season despite the early struggles and the constant moaning of their fans), Michigan State (having a down year, but dangerous), and a surprisingly good Indiana (they'd get a lot more national press if we weren't the Big Ten's top underdog making good). Penn State is the top team we've played so far by a great distance and we need to play our best game of the season to win.