Since Field of 68, 40/44 teams with .500 or better Big 10 record earned at-large bids

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SelectionSunday

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Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2010-11, the Big Ten has received 47 NCAA Tournament bids, 40 of those via the at-large route. Only 2 of those 40 (Gophers & Illinois, both in 2013) finished under .500 (8-10) during the Big Ten regular season.

Conversely, during that same time span only 4 teams finished .500 or better during the Big Ten regular season but failed to garner at-large bids. ... 9-9 Iowa (2013), 9-9 Illinois (2015), 11-7 Ohio State (2016), and 10-8 Iowa (2017).

I think it's safe to say on Selection Sunday 2018 we'll be adding a team or two to the latter list.

Here's the breakdown:

2011
Auto Bid (Tourney Champ): Ohio State (16-2)

At-Large Bids (6): Purdue (14-4), Wisconsin (13-5), Illinois (9-9), Michigan (9-9), Michigan State (9-9), Penn State (9-9)

2012
Auto Bid: Michigan State (13-5)

At-Large Bids (5): Michigan (13-5), Ohio State (13-5), Wisconsin (12-6), Indiana (11-7), Purdue (10-8)

2013
Auto Bid: Ohio State (13-5)

At-Large Bids (6): Indiana (14-4), Michigan State (13-5), Michigan (12-6), Wisconsin (12-6), Illinois (8-10), Minnesota (8-10)

Missed the Cut: Iowa (9-9)

2014
Auto Bid: Michigan State (12-6)

At-Large Bids (5): Michigan (15-3), Wisconsin (12-6), Nebraska (11-7), Ohio State (10-8), Iowa (9-9)

2015
Auto Bid: Wisconsin (16-2)

At-Large Bids (6): Maryland (14-4), Iowa (12-6), Michigan State (12-6), Purdue (12-6), Ohio State (11-7), Indiana (9-9)

Missed the Cut: Illinois (9-9)

2016
Auto Bid: Michigan State (13-5)

At-Large Bids (6): Indiana (15-3), Iowa (12-6), Maryland (12-6), Purdue (12-6), Wisconsin (12-6), Michigan (10-8)

Missed the Cut: Ohio State (11-7)

2017
Auto Bid: Michigan (10-8)

At-Large Bids (6): Purdue (14-4), Maryland (12-6), Wisconsin (12-6), Minnesota (11-7), Michigan State (10-8), Northwestern (10-8)

Missed the Cut: Iowa (10-8)
 

They have a looooong way to go to get into the tourney. Their schedule and inability to beat top 100 teams is killing them.

I'm sorry, I know this will offend the sensitive homers we have around here....but they're not making the tourney this year. They shot out of their minds and still couldn't beat an average, at best, team in regulation (in part a result of some horrendous coaching). They fold in the second half like they're getting paid (again, coaching). That's as good as the current group can possibly play, IMO (without Lynch and Coffey).
 

SelectionSunday said:
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2010-11, the Big Ten has received 47 NCAA Tournament bids, 40 of those via the at-large route. Only 2 of those 40 (Gophers & Illinois, both in 2013) finished under .500 (8-10) during the Big Ten regular season.

Conversely, during that same time span only 4 teams finished .500 or better during the Big Ten regular season but failed to garner at-large bids. ... 9-9 Iowa (2013), 9-9 Illinois (2015), 11-7 Ohio State (2016), and 10-8 Iowa (2017).

I think it's safe to say on Selection Sunday 2018 we'll be adding a team or two to the latter list.

Here's the breakdown:

2011
Auto Bid (Tourney Champ): Ohio State (16-2)

At-Large Bids (6): Purdue (14-4), Wisconsin (13-5), Illinois (9-9), Michigan (9-9), Michigan State (9-9), Penn State (9-9)

2012
Auto Bid: Michigan State (13-5)

At-Large Bids (5): Michigan (13-5), Ohio State (13-5), Wisconsin (12-6), Indiana (11-7), Purdue (10-8)

2013
Auto Bid: Ohio State (13-5)

At-Large Bids (6): Indiana (14-4), Michigan State (13-5), Michigan (12-6), Wisconsin (12-6), Illinois (8-10), Minnesota (8-10)

Missed the Cut: Iowa (9-9)

2014
Auto Bid: Michigan State (12-6)

At-Large Bids (5): Michigan (15-3), Wisconsin (12-6), Nebraska (11-7), Ohio State (10-8), Iowa (9-9)

2015
Auto Bid: Wisconsin (16-2)

At-Large Bids (6): Maryland (14-4), Iowa (12-6), Michigan State (12-6), Purdue (12-6), Ohio State (11-7), Indiana (9-9)

Missed the Cut: Illinois (9-9)

2016
Auto Bid: Michigan State (13-5)

At-Large Bids (6): Indiana (15-3), Iowa (12-6), Maryland (12-6), Purdue (12-6), Wisconsin (12-6), Michigan (10-8)

Missed the Cut: Ohio State (11-7)

2017
Auto Bid: Michigan (10-8)

At-Large Bids (6): Purdue (14-4), Maryland (12-6), Wisconsin (12-6), Minnesota (11-7), Michigan State (10-8), Northwestern (10-8)

Missed the Cut: Iowa (10-8)
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Great info as always SelectionSunday! You're a great asset for all of us on Gopherhole!
 

ForecastingAWin said:
Great info as always SelectionSunday! You're a great asset for all of us on Gopherhole!
Click to expand...

Thanks. Now I'm trying to round up some historical RPI information on the at-large teams listed above. A lot harder to find than it used to be!
 

RPI of Big 10 At-Larges since expansion to Field of 68 (2010-11 season)

This is the at-large qualifiers only; the automatic qualifiers (Big 10 tourney champions) are excluded. Data also includes RPIs of all Big 10 teams that finished with a .500 or better regular season Big 10 record, but were not selected as an at-large (4 occasions).

2011 At-Larges: Purdue (12), Wisconsin (16), Penn State (39), Michigan State (45), Illinois (48), Michigan (52)

2012 At-Larges: Ohio State (7), Michigan (13), Indiana (17), Wisconsin (23), Purdue (47)

2013 At-Larges: Indiana (8), Michigan State (9), Michigan (21), Wisconsin (32), Minnesota (34), Illinois (40)

Not Selected: 9-9 Iowa (81)

2014 At-Larges: Wisconsin (6), Michigan (11), Ohio State (24), Nebraska (48), Iowa (56)

2015 At-Larges: Maryland (13), Michigan State (23), Ohio State (41), Iowa (43), Purdue (56), Indiana (61)

Not Selected: 9-9 Illinois (73)

2016 At-Larges: Maryland (14), Purdue (15), Indiana (24), Iowa (29), Wisconsin (43), Michigan (57)

Not Selected: 11-7 Ohio State (74)

2017 At-Larges: Purdue (19), Minnesota (20), Maryland (34), Wisconsin (36), Michigan State (50), Northwestern (51)

Not Selected: 10-8 Iowa (81)
 


Big 10 NCAA Tournament Bids Since Expansion to Field of 68 (2010-11)

Rutgers is the only Big 10 team not to make the tournament in this 7-year span.

NCAA Bids Since 2011
Michigan State (7)
Wisconsin (7)
Michigan (6)
Ohio State (5)
Purdue (5)
Indiana (4)
Iowa (3)
Maryland (3)
Illinois (2)
Minnesota (2)
Nebraska (1)
Northwestern (1)
Penn State (1)
Rutgers (0)
 

In recent years, the selection committee seems (IMHO) to account more for key injuries to teams, and what your record was with the players on the team at the end of the year. If the gophs struggle or don't play great for the next couple weeks, but get Coffey back in February and play well down the stretch to get to 9-9; do you think the committee would look more favorably on us (favorably enough to get in the tourney) since at times Coffey was playing, the team's record would be much more impressive?
 

ForecastingAWin said:
In recent years, the selection committee seems (IMHO) to account more for key injuries to teams, and what your record was with the players on the team at the end of the year. If the gophs struggle or don't play great for the next couple weeks, but get Coffey back in February and play well down the stretch to get to 9-9; do you think the committee would look more favorably on us (favorably enough to get in the tourney) since at times Coffey was playing, the team's record would be much more impressive?
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To a certain extent, yes, but I don't think 9-9 is sufficient for Gophers this year with a Coffey recovery, unless there's a win or two over @ Michigan, Michigan State, vs. Ohio State, and/or @ Purdue. But if they do that & then get to 9-9 (I'm skeptical that will occur) and then beat 1 of those 4 (again) in the Big Ten Tournament, I could see a scenario where they get a sniff.

However, even doing all that, the hard part is Gophers keeping their RPI/KenPom respectable, something at least in the 50's. That will be difficult to do with all the land mines (bad opponents) remaining on their schedule.
 

I agree that 9-9 may be a bit difficult looking at the remaining schedule, but I love playing the hypotheticals anyway... :)
 



Heracles said:
They have a looooong way to go to get into the tourney. Their schedule and inability to beat top 100 teams is killing them.

they're not making the tourney this year. They shot out of their minds and still couldn't beat an average, at best, team in regulation (in part a result of some horrendous coaching). They fold in the second half like they're getting paid (again, coaching). That's as good as the current group can possibly play, IMO (without Lynch and Coffey).
Click to expand...


I agree with you that the performance in the PSU game is probably close to about as good as we can expect from this team right now and they are very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament. However, Penn State is a well above average D1 team. They are an average or slightly below average Big Ten team.
 


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