I point out those setbacks not for the sake of negativity or to rip anyone, but to demonstrate that if the Gophers are going to break through and convert casual fans to committed diehards, they have to keep the momentum of this season going into next year. I believe that the average person who doesn't live and die with this team right now isn't going to be impressed with another non New Year's Day bowl and won't go out of the way to watch what many will perceive, incorrectly, as a third rate bowl game on a Saturday night when there are many entertainment options, activities, and family obligations. On New Year's Day, there's not much to do by comparison. Watching football is a national institution, and playing that day provides a captive audience that perceives the games as meaning more than those on other days. I think a Holiday Bowl bid instead of a Citrus or Outback Bowl bid will wind up being a missed opportunity to get people's attention and hook them further into investing in this team all the way.
Your analysis is really a stretch. A casual fan watching football on New Years afternoon will likely do one or both of the following: 1) switch back and forth between games without focusing on one or the other very much until one of the games seems tighter and more exciting and/or 2) drift in and out between watching football and doing something else (like maybe eating, or drinking, or talking).
Casual fans do not become more dedicated fans because a certain team happens to play on New Years day. They become more dedicated fans through:
1) hanging around with dedicated fans of a particular team;
2) a particular experience where they watch an exciting game (often in an atmosphere where there is a lot of fan excitement);
3) a gradual process where they transform from being a more casual fan to a more interested fan over time.