Sid: It seems like the University of Minnesota is preparing to have fans in the stands for the 2020 football season

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While I am a strongly in the camp of "most people aren't taking this seriously enough" I understand the massive economic implications of stay at home. I think this pandemic is serving as a lesson in "We need to have a plan". Hopefully there is not another pandemic in my lifetime, but if there is I hope the lessons from this one can make it so that we can still properly handle it without as much of an economic impact.

Anyway, I think we play, but have minimal to no fans. With the way the athletic department budget is set up currently, it can't survive not having the season happen (which would likely result in no TV money, which is the biggest draw).

I also think we see HUGE changes in the way athletic departments run their budgets over the next 5 to 10 years. I think we see not only a re-evaluation of coach salaries (I don't think we'll see a decrease in existing coaches salaries, but future hires may see smaller salaries), but also a re-evaluation of day-to-day operation of athletic facilities to make them as price-efficient as they can be to run while still operating properly. I think ticket prices will also be radically changed to optimize profit from them. I can also see the process of renting out TCF as a venue for events during the off-season get easier, so more revenue comes from that as well.

I could also see the concept of coaches having a "season" salary and an "off season" salary.

Lots will change, hopefully all for the better. Just airing some of my thoughts, not saying any of this is the way things should be or will be.
 

fmlizard said:
Great. No chance of happening. Look how cautious other sports are being with their bubbles and daily tests.

Add in amateurism and highly risk-averse university administrators and this is just a mirage.
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University administrators being risk averse is exactly why they might play the season.

it might be a bigger risk to not play than play considering Healthy college kids are almost as likely to die of alcohol poisoning as Covid
 

It was just announced that the PGA's 3M Championship in Blaine, July 23-26 will be taking place but without a gallery. They hoped to allow 6000 fans, but that was nixed.

The Gophers opening game is roughly 5 weeks later, I am not sure how much will change by then as social distancing would seem to be easier to pull off at a golf event.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Bad math /= bad information that you use to do the math.

We'll see a few years from now when the science comes back as to what the risks were and how accurate any of that math is.
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Garbage in equals garbage out. No matter what the future holds, this was an incredible shitshow for all the "experts" involved!
 



Actually, the big numbers were without the social distancing and state measures put in place. The numbers are actually pretty close to what was predicted having put those intervention methods put in place.
 

DMB123 said:
30,500 cases overall in Minnesota, 1,300 deaths. Do the math: .04% overall death rate.

4,870 cases of people age 40-49, 14 deaths. Simple math again says that is a death rate of .003%.

So if you’re in your 40’s and contract the virus, you have a 99.997% chance of survival. Unless we are playing home games inside a nursing home there shouldn’t be an issue. This has turned out to be a big fat nothingburger.

If you’re scared of contracting a virus that only gives you a fighting chance of 99.997% to survive, then stay home. Life goes on though for the rest of the sane population.
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Thank you
 

PMWinSTP said:
Actually, the big numbers were without the social distancing and state measures put in place. The numbers are actually pretty close to what was predicted having put those intervention methods put in place.
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Yup.

The "it's all a hoax/ based on 'bad math'" folks seem to conveniently forget that, don't they?

Let's see what happens in the states that opened early. Follow the bouncing ball...
 

As someone who lives in TN, life is getting back to normal here. I went to the comedy club 2 weekends ago and it was pretty much business as usual. All age ranges are out and about. From friends who work at the medical center, it sounds like hospitalizations and icu bed rates being occupied are pretty flat. The positive tests are slightly up but testing is also up. Testing numbers by themselves really don’t mean anything. Plus, hospitals are improving their treatment of the virus as knowledge is gained I am optimistic the death rate should only continue to go down. I have already booked 3 flights for home games this year.
 



MplsGopher said:
They'll have fans up to some % of capacity more than zero. Socially distance groups of seats. Force people to wear masks to enter the stadium (and kick out assholes who take them off once inside, forcefully if need be).
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I agree. Probably somewhere around 25% capacity. We still have 2 and a half months so maybe some changes.
 

AtTheLibrary said:
As someone who lives in TN, life is getting back to normal here. I went to the comedy club 2 weekends ago and it was pretty much business as usual. All age ranges are out and about. From friends who work at the medical center, it sounds like hospitalizations and icu bed rates being occupied are pretty flat. The positive tests are slightly up but testing is also up. Testing numbers by themselves really don’t mean anything. Plus, hospitals are improving their treatment of the virus as knowledge is gained I am optimistic the death rate should only continue to go down. I have already booked 3 flights for home games this year.
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Four of the top six days for new cases have happened in the last two weeks in Tenn, and cases have trended back up since the re-opening May 1.
 

If stadiums are only partially full I think the students should get the tickets first and then season ticket holders. People who have suites shouldn't really have a problem cause they should be able to keep distance the easiest. This way the stadium is filled with a lot of younger healthier people and season ticket holders also get to go to the games.
 

GopherGuy8 said:
If stadiums are only partially full I think the students should get the tickets first and then season ticket holders. People who have suites shouldn't really have a problem cause they should be able to keep distance the easiest. This way the stadium is filled with a lot of younger healthier people and season ticket holders also get to go to the games.
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I agree with this 100 percent, take care of the students first (10K for sure),, make sure the whole band is fit in somewhere as well, then the big dollar types up in the suites. I have zero expectation of this playing out the way I want it too, and fully expect no one will be happy with the outcome, so I'll be happy to watch on TV this year, if they do not allow us all in.

Maybe a system could be put in place for the elderly, plus the at risk with the contributing conditions so they can be encouraged to self identify , and be removed from any list of season ticket holders competing for the 20, or 25K passes.
 



PMWinSTP said:
Four of the top six days for new cases have happened in the last two weeks in Tenn, and cases have trended back up since the re-opening May 1.
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I can also provide stats. Hospitalization are down 12.7% from last week and way down from 6 weeks ago (TN Dept. Health). There were also 13,865 tests reported. The 14 day SMA for the state is 8,460. A higher # people are getting tested now. If you go to hospital now they are testing you for covid which is partly reason for the increase testing numbers. This will also drive an increase of positives as we know a lot of cases are asymptomatic. For personal reference, I know 1 person who has caught it, tested positive and recovered. I feel like many family members up north I speak with haven’t don’t/personally know a person who has tested positive.

Edit: to link this back to gopher football.. the county which Tennessee Tech is located in has 145 active cases, 9 of which are new today.
 
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GopherGuy8 said:
If stadiums are only partially full I think the students should get the tickets first and then season ticket holders. People who have suites shouldn't really have a problem cause they should be able to keep distance the easiest. This way the stadium is filled with a lot of younger healthier people and season ticket holders also get to go to the games.
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Stadiums will have as many fans in them as want to go to the game. There will be some precautions and measures for getting into the stadium perhaps, but there will most definitely be football with fans this fall.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Stadiums will have as many fans in them as want to go to the game. There will be some precautions and measures for getting into the stadium perhaps, but there will most definitely be football with fans this fall.
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I really hope your right but I sadly nobody truly knows yet.
 


I believe this pandemic has been overblown originally they were saying 2 million people would die. Don't get me wrong a lot of people died was that close up number. Now we know older people need to stay at home for the most part younger people are safe. I believe I had it and my youngest daughter had it and my dog had it honestly the dog had it worse then any of us.
 

Cedar Rapids Gopher said:
I believe this pandemic has been overblown originally they were saying 2 million people would die. Don't get me wrong a lot of people died was that close up number. Now we know older people need to stay at home for the most part younger people are safe. I believe I had it and my youngest daughter had it and my dog had it honestly the dog had it worse then any of us.
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You know you can go get tested instead of guessing ...
 

Cedar Rapids Gopher said:
I believe this pandemic has been overblown originally they were saying 2 million people would die. Don't get me wrong a lot of people died was that close up number. Now we know older people need to stay at home for the most part younger people are safe. I believe I had it and my youngest daughter had it and my dog had it honestly the dog had it worse then any of us.
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Again, those early estimates were based on no precautionary intervention being put in place. As I have said before the few people I know who got sick with it said it was horrible. There are also early studies starting to come out about the after affects of it, most common so far is heart and lung damage.
 

DMB123 said:
30,500 cases overall in Minnesota, 1,300 deaths. Do the math: .04% overall death rate.

4,870 cases of people age 40-49, 14 deaths. Simple math again says that is a death rate of .003%.

So if you’re in your 40’s and contract the virus, you have a 99.997% chance of survival. Unless we are playing home games inside a nursing home there shouldn’t be an issue. This has turned out to be a big fat nothingburger.

If you’re scared of contracting a virus that only gives you a fighting chance of 99.997% to survive, then stay home. Life goes on though for the rest of the sane population.
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great post
 


I posted this on the OTB yesterday but feel it's relevant with the discussion here.

People need to stop pretending that an increase in cases is some sort of proof that things are getting worse. They're only bad in the small fraction of the population that can't handle the disease.

We are entering week 4 in Minnesota since our week with the highest cases. Yet hospitalizations have decreased by 42% from the peak at the end of May.

There has been no subsequent '3-4 week lag' in hospitalizations and deaths due to an increase in cases.

Deaths continue to tank nationally, and now there is news of a more effective steroid treatment for the worst cases. Across the US and Europe, the median age of death is 80+.

There is nothing in the data that should prevent fans from filling stadiums to capacity, if they so choose.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I posted this on the OTB yesterday but feel it's relevant with the discussion here.

People need to stop pretending that an increase in cases is some sort of proof that things are getting worse. They're only bad in the small fraction of the population that can't handle the disease.

We are entering week 4 in Minnesota since our week with the highest cases. Yet hospitalizations have decreased by 42% from the peak at the end of May.

There has been no subsequent '3-4 week lag' in hospitalizations and deaths due to an increase in cases.

Deaths continue to tank nationally, and now there is news of a more effective steroid treatment for the worst cases. Across the US and Europe, the median age of death is 80+.

There is nothing in the data that should prevent fans from filling stadiums to capacity, if they so choose.
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I hope they allow people the freedom to attend. Provide hand sanitizer and ask people to be respectful of others. We all take calculated risks everyday. This should be the same. Some may decide to stay home, others may decide to go.
 

GWG’s argument is essentially that people with higher risk of death should be banned from the stadium, so that low risk people can fill it to capacity. Rather than maximizing safety and risk of spreading infection in the stadium, with reduced capacity.

Isn’t that a similar argument to saying that handicapped seats should be removed to make more room for able-bodied people to enter??
 

MplsGopher said:
GWG’s argument is essentially that people with higher risk of death should be banned from the stadium, so that low risk people can fill it to capacity. Rather than maximizing safety and risk of spreading infection in the stadium, with reduced capacity.

Isn’t that a similar argument to saying that handicapped seats should be removed to make more room for able-bodied people to enter??
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Do you think people that are at high risk would attend the games if they were at 50% capacity? My dad is in that category and he would not risk it. I don't think most doctors would advise people at high risk to attend games even at 50% capacity.
 

DMB123 said:
Sorry I messed that up, did it too quickly. Didn’t mean to add the % signs. Point remains, nothing to be scared of.
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Death rate of 4% is nothing to be scared of? Obviously biased toward older folks but guess what - so is the age of season ticket holders. Planning on taking your father in law that you don’t like?
 
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Word said:
Do you think people that are at high risk would attend the games if they were at 50% capacity? My dad is in that category and he would not risk it. I don't think most doctors would advise people at high risk to attend games even at 50% capacity.
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50 seems pretty high.

The virus hasn’t changed, and there is no vaccine yet. It’s great that there aren’t mass deaths, and that the IFR will be very low, but there is no possible way to predict who might get seriously ill or die if they get infected, only generic statistic correlation, but with plenty of outliers. And most importantly, there is no way to predict if you’ll be an outlier.

Therefore, you either have to minimize the risk of infection in the stadium, for all attendees (which I predict the U will try to do), or you say F it and give the middle finger to anyone who doesn’t want to or can’t risk it.
 

The younger, healthier can go to the game approach works only if those fans stay isolated. The risk is that transmission occurs at the game and the virus moves from one community to another which will include at risk populations. We value personal liberty, but we do live in communities. You may be okay accepting the risk, but your choice does not impact you alone.

How many deaths and significant, potentially life changing, illnesses are reasonable to accept for watching football?
 

If students are living in the dorms, attending classes and attending the games the contact points for the virus are already through the roof. Just pack the building and make people sign waivers & wear masks ( I.E. The NASCAR Model) .. That being said, I’m guessing no marching bands.
 

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