Sid: It seems like the University of Minnesota is preparing to have fans in the stands for the 2020 football season

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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per Sid:

Jottings

• It seems like the University of Minnesota is preparing to have fans in the stands for the 2020 football season. The school has started promoting season-ticket sales after it announced it will have in-person classes this fall.

Tony Dungy's success story stands atop University of Minnesota list

www.startribune.com www.startribune.com

Go Gophers!!
 

Great. No chance of happening. Look how cautious other sports are being with their bubbles and daily tests.

Add in amateurism and highly risk-averse university administrators and this is just a mirage.
 

What is happening in Florida, the Carolinas, and nineteen other states who relaxed restrictions early is scary.

It is just a devastatingly tough decision all around. The future of college sports is in peril without revenue stream.

You have 30K-50K fans in the stand yelling and cheering, how much CoVid-19 exposure potential do the coaches, staff, referees, and players have of CoVid-19 infection/transmission?
 

hungan1 said:
What is happening in Florida, the Carolinas, and nineteen other states who relaxed restrictions early is scary.

It is just a devastatingly tough decision all around. The future of college sports is in peril without revenue stream.

You have 30K-50K fans in the stand yelling and cheering, how much CoVid-19 exposure potential do the coaches, staff, referees, and players have of CoVid-19 infection/transmission?
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You're right. It is scary. And expensive. People say "just test everybody". Well none of this is free, and 5 minutes after a test someone can get it. We don't know everything about this thing, and it can get even worse.

On a lighter note, I'd sacrifice myself for the good of the team!!!!!!!!!!!! But I would need to see the National Title before I croaked. I would die a happy man.
 



BTChamp said:
You're right. It is scary. And expensive. People say "just test everybody". Well none of this is free, and 5 minutes after a test someone can get it. We don't know everything about this thing, and it can get even worse.

On a lighter note, I'd sacrifice myself for the good of the team!!!!!!!!!!!! But I would need to see the National Title before I croaked. I would die a happy man.
Click to expand...

I'm with you man I am a croaker too. ?
 

30,500 cases overall in Minnesota, 1,300 deaths. Do the math: .04% overall death rate.

4,870 cases of people age 40-49, 14 deaths. Simple math again says that is a death rate of .003%.

So if you’re in your 40’s and contract the virus, you have a 99.997% chance of survival. Unless we are playing home games inside a nursing home there shouldn’t be an issue. This has turned out to be a big fat nothingburger.

If you’re scared of contracting a virus that only gives you a fighting chance of 99.997% to survive, then stay home. Life goes on though for the rest of the sane population.
 

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DMB123 said:
30,500 cases overall in Minnesota, 1,300 deaths. Do the math: .04% overall death rate.

4,870 cases of people age 40-49, 14 deaths. Simple math again says that is a death rate of .003%.

So if you’re in your 40’s and contract the virus, you have a 99.997% chance of survival. Unless we are playing home games inside a nursing home there shouldn’t be an issue. This has turned out to be a big fat nothingburger.

If you’re scared of contracting a virus that only gives you a fighting chance of 99.997% to survive, then stay home. Life goes on though for the rest of the sane population.
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Did you learn math at Wisconsin? I don’t think a MN grad would divide 1,500 by 30,500 and come up with 0.04%...you’re off by 2 orders of magnitude.
 



They'll have fans up to some % of capacity more than zero. Socially distance groups of seats. Force people to wear masks to enter the stadium (and kick out assholes who take them off once inside, forcefully if need be).
 

Of course they're planning on having fans in the stands. More than likely there will be stadiums full of fans with some possible precautions and measures for entering the stadium.

At the very least, it's obviously a lot smarter to plan on football with fans in the stadium than to not plan and then be caught with your pants down if/when things improve dramatically in the next month or two
 

LaXGoph said:
Did you learn math at Wisconsin? I don’t think a MN grad would divide 1,500 by 30,500 and come up with 0.04%...you’re off by 2 orders of magnitude.
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Sorry I messed that up, did it too quickly. Didn’t mean to add the % signs. Point remains, nothing to be scared of.
 




DMB123 said:
Sorry I messed that up, did it too quickly. Didn’t mean to add the % signs. Point remains, nothing to be scared of.
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So you mean to say “0.04 death rate”? That’s a nonsensical way of presenting statistics.

You may also want to go back and actually fix the mistake so you don’t leave it up to be misinterpreted...
 

DMB123 said:
30,500 cases overall in Minnesota, 1,300 deaths. Do the math: .04% overall death rate.

4,870 cases of people age 40-49, 14 deaths. Simple math again says that is a death rate of .003%.

So if you’re in your 40’s and contract the virus, you have a 99.997% chance of survival. Unless we are playing home games inside a nursing home there shouldn’t be an issue. This has turned out to be a big fat nothingburger.

If you’re scared of contracting a virus that only gives you a fighting chance of 99.997% to survive, then stay home. Life goes on though for the rest of the sane population.
Click to expand...

I would also back out the 1,000 plus people who have died while in LTC. I think the point is if you're under 50 you have a better chance of dying from a tick bite or lightning strike.
 

Fun with Math!
  • Approx. 5,640,000 people live in MN
  • COVID-19 has claimed 1,305 to date
  • 7 home games slated for 2020
  • 2019 average attendance was 46,190
  • Rough guesstimate for 2020 attendance = 323,330
  • Assumption: football game crowd age make-up roughly mirrors the general state population
  • Result?
  • ***Only*** 75 people will die from COVID-19 after watching a Gophers football game @ TCF Bank Stadium! Don't worry - that's for the entire season, not just a single game.
The good news, as an astute earlier poster noted, is that the risk is highest for the older fan base. Who need$ tho$e turkey$ anyway$, right guy$?

You might die, but that's a chance [insert your name here] is willing to take.
 
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Bad math kills.

I don't want to be in a Ring-Around-The-Rosie in a pocket full of posies (non-mask wearers) and be one of the 4.3% that fell down.
 

I want in on this bad math thing.

100% of people who died from COVID... died from COVID.... that's pretty shocking.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
I want in on this bad math thing.

100% of people who died from COVID... died from COVID.... that's pretty shocking.
Click to expand...

I learned this a long time ago in Kentucky Fried Movie. #1 killer in the United States is....

"Death"
 

Fun with bad math.
-as of today 6/15
-1,298 dead from covid in MN.
-1,030 were in LTC
-268 died with out the needing long term care facility and would have gone to the game or had the ability to go.
-30,471 have tested positive
-26,090 no longer needed isolation and have recovered.

What does it all mean? Go about your daily lives. You have a better chance of dying in a car crash going to the game.
 

Dances With Gophers said:
Fun with Math!
  • Approx. 5,640,000 people live in MN
  • COVID-19 has claimed 1,305 to date
  • 7 home games slated for 2020
  • 2019 average attendance was 46,190
  • Rough guesstimate for 2020 attendance = 323,330
  • Assumption: football game crowd age make-up roughly mirrors the general state population
  • Result?
  • ***Only*** 75 people will die from COVID-19 after watching a Gophers football game @ TCF Bank Stadium! Don't worry - that's for the entire season, not just a single game.
The good news, as an astute earlier poster noted, is that the risk is highest for the older fan base. Who need$ tho$e turkey$ anyway$, right guy$?

You might die, but that's a chance [insert your name here] is willing to take.
Click to expand...
There won’t be 323k unique people attending the games.

And being outdoors is a much lower chance of transmission than indoors. Non-still air makes the droplets much less likely to be inhaled.
 


Bad math is what got us into the whole shut down the economy mess in the first place. Assumptions were for a much higher infection and death rate. Of course we all know what happens when you assume something....
 

Maverick said:
Bad math is what got us into the whole shut down the economy mess in the first place. Assumptions were for a much higher infection and death rate. Of course we all know what happens when you assume something....
Click to expand...

Bad math /= bad information that you use to do the math.

We'll see a few years from now when the science comes back as to what the risks were and how accurate any of that math is.
 

Dances With Gophers said:
Fun with Math!
  • Approx. 5,640,000 people live in MN
  • COVID-19 has claimed 1,305 to date
  • 7 home games sated for 2020
  • 2019 average attendance was 46,190
  • Rough guesstimate for 2020 attendance = 323,330
  • Assumption: football game crowd age make-up roughly mirrors the general state population
  • Result?
  • ***Only*** 75 people will die all year long from COVID-19! Don't worry - that's for the entire season, not just a single game.
The good news, as an astute earlier poster noted, is that the risk is highest for the older fan base. Who need$ tho$e turkey$ anyway$, right guy$?

You might die, but that's a chance [insert your name here] is willing to take.
Click to expand...

Boy, I feel much better now Doctor. You better not grow old. Oh, but wait. That means you have to die young.
 


caught part of an interview on NPR with some female doctor. Short version, she said the highest risk of infection is when two people stand face-to-face less than 6-feet apart and converse for at least 10 minutes, while indoors. definitely said that air-borne infection is more risky than from touching a surface that might carry the virus.

also said it appears the risk of infection is lower when outdoors. But, she also said she still encourages people to wear masks.

If I had to guess, I would say that they allow fans at 50% of stadium capacity - so about 25,000 for a home game. that would cover the season ticket holders, some students and a few visiting fans.

Unless there is a big upward spike in cases this fall. then all bets are off.
 


hungan1 said:
Bad math kills.

I don't want to be in a Ring-Around-The-Rosie in a pocket full of posies (non-mask wearers) and be one of the 4.3% that fell down.
Click to expand...

Then don't go to the game.

There isn't any data at this point suggests people shouldn't be allowed to make their own decisions on whether or not to attend, at 100% capacity.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Then don't go to the game.

There isn't any data at this point suggests people shouldn't be allowed to make their own decisions on whether or not to attend, at 100% capacity.
Click to expand...

It's a free country.
 

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