Shocking Early Line for Gophers at Illini

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Moses87

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When is the last time the Gophers were road favorites in Champaign?

I was shocked to see the Gophers favored by 1.5 in the early betting line from the "vegasinsider.com" site - The post the earliest lines I've found on the web.

The shocking part is that they just took apart OSU by 20 at home. I'm very surprised as I expected the Illini to be 4 point faves at home.
 

Four-point favorites? That would mean the game would be a PK on a neutral court.
 

Not too surprised that we are the favorite. I mean. We didn't lose to Purdue.
 

I think the Illinois game is a lot more important than the Indiana game. If we truly want to contend, we have to beat Illinois. However, I don't think even the top teams have the expectation of winning IN Indiana... Basically, I feel like a loss against Illinois hurts a bit but a loss at Indiana is more of a missed opportunity than actually damaging, particularly if we've already won on Wednesday.

I would have also expected Illinois to be about a 3-4 point favorite... I do think the Gophers will win, but I'm not sure I'd bet on it without getting a few points.
 

afurry91 said:
Not too surprised that we are the favorite. I mean. We didn't lose to Purdue.
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There's no such thing as an easy road game in the B1G, Purdue included. #12 Illinois has already beaten #9 Gonzaga @ Gonzaga, pounded then #8 OSU by 20, beat #14 Butler (who beat Indiana), beat G Tech, beat the same USC team we did by 30 & played Mizzou neck & neck until the last minute of the game. Honest question....when's the last time we won at Assembly Hall? To beat the #12 team in the nation at Assembly Hall is no small feat.
 


Costa Rican Gopher said:
There's no such thing as an easy road game in the B1G, Purdue included. #12 Illinois has already beaten #9 Gonzaga @ Gonzaga, pounded then #8 OSU by 20, beat #14 Butler (who beat Indiana), beat G Tech, beat the same USC team we did by 30 & played Mizzou neck & neck until the last minute of the game. Honest question....when's the last time we won at Assembly Hall? To beat the #12 team in the nation at Assembly Hall is no small feat.
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They have also beat Hawaii by 1, Gardner Webb by 1 (at home), and Auburn by 2 (at home), and lost by 7 to Purdue (The same Purdue team that lost to Michigan State by 23. The same Michigan State that we beat). I don't know how the other top teams have faired but I'd be willing to bet they are one of the most inconsistent top 25 teams in the country and the most inconsistent top 15 team in the country.
 


The Swing

Plinnius said:
Four-point favorites? That would mean the game would be a PK on a neutral court.
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I believe that with these 2 teams, because of the home court advantage that both enjoy, I believe the swing is larger than what you espouse.

I believe Minnesota would be a 2 point favorite on a neutral court. Remember, they beat Butler, Gonzaga and OSU...Those are three legit, top 25 teams.

I believe Minnesota would be favored by 8 at home but the Illni should be favored by 4 in their home court. I believe the home court in this matchup is 12.

I really hope the Gophers can avoid the turnovers and guard the three pointers, but my brain tells me, we'll struggle with both of those things and the Illini will make us pay.

I suspect we could get beat by double digits, mostly because of turnovers and their transition baskets and hot shooting.
 

Because of B1G Home Cookin', home court in the B1G is worth 4-6 points (more for Wiscy or if you have Eddie Hightower reffing), IMO and Illinois should be on the high end of that range. I would expect the Gophers to be favored by about 3 on a neutral court, so I expected them to be 3 point underdogs give or take. This is a bit suprising. Please don't let us have Eddie Hightower.
 



I was not expecting the Gophers to be favored in either game. if Illinois is hitting from outside, this could be a tough game.
 

XMan said:
I was not expecting the Gophers to be favored in either game. if Illinois is hitting from outside, this could be a tough game.
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It's going to be a tough game for sure. I like that Illinois is going to be willing to go up and down the floor with us and our guys love that type of game.
 

bga1 said:
It's going to be a tough game for sure. I like that Illinois is going to be willing to go up and down the floor with us and our guys love that type of game.
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I agree that we love up-tempo because we are a great transition team and very good at finishing or getting fouls...I think they would be better served to slow it down and make it a half court game...It should be interesting to see if Groce does what's right for his team's chances, or sticks to his guns...
 

I am surprised the Gophers are favored as well, especially with the Illini coming off such a strong performance. What concerns me the most about this game is that the Gophers have had scoring lapses in both Big Ten games. It will be tough to win on the road if they have one of those stretches where they score 4 points or less in a 5-6 minutes of court time.

I do think it is a very good sign that the Gophers are favored though as I would imagine that Illinois is more of a public team than Minnesota.
 



I like our team a lot, but I wouldn't be shocked if we lose our next 3 games. It would certainly be disappointing but we're talking about 3 of the top 15 teams right now, with Mich arguably the best team in the country. Win 0-1 we can still be in the hunt. Win 2-3 we can contend for regular season title. I'm just trying to temper my expectations a bit on a brutal week starting tomorrow. Tomorrow is going to be really tough as any road BIG games, but I like our team on a neutral or home court vs. IL.
 

afurry91 said:
They have also beat Hawaii by 1, Gardner Webb by 1 (at home), and Auburn by 2 (at home), and lost by 7 to Purdue (The same Purdue team that lost to Michigan State by 23. The same Michigan State that we beat). I don't know how the other top teams have faired but I'd be willing to bet they are one of the most inconsistent top 25 teams in the country and the most inconsistent top 15 team in the country.
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You seem to be saying that Illinois isn't a good team because they lost to Purdue & played close games with those non-con teams? Are they beatable? Absolutely! Make no mistake though, Illinois is a very good team, as are Mich St, OSU & maybe Wisconsin (maybe) in that pack. Winning on the road in the B1G is quite a feat. The older you get, the more you respect how hard it is to win on the road in the B1G. People look back so fondly on Clem Haskins, but aside from the one season even the mighty Clem couldn't buy a road win in the B1G. If we beat Illinois it'll really send a message to the rest of the conference & I think we have a real chance, but as a guy who knows a bit about handicapping & setting lines, I'm surprised the line is that high & expect it to drop down to maybe -1 or a pick by game time.
 

I think after the OSU game, Illini is a ripe for a letdown, just a hunch, but this is still a group of Weber's players, they're known for having letdowns.
 

Personally excited about this teams possibilities, but cautious about ranking and expectations...Not because I am wearing maroon shades, but simply because the B1G is a very tough conference. Not feeling the need to get to up or down about any win or loss or ranking. The team simply needs to take on each opponent that they come against.
 

The line is of course a PREDICTION but not of the outcome of the game. It is a prediction of what number will split the bettors in half. Half will take the fave, half will take the dog. If 1.5 proves to be that number, it says that the Gophers and Tubby have been noticed out there to an extent that the Illini have not, despite the fact that Illinois is something of a perennial and we obviously are not. Or maybe because of that fact. I guess if I'm a bettor somewhere like TX or CA or NJ or wherever and I don't really know a lot about the Gophers, I would have to pick the Illini as a dog. But if enough people do that, the Illini are no longer the dog.
 

Im not surprised we are favorites. That said, I would not be surprised if we lost our next two games. At this point, I am pretty comfortable with our squad. That said, I don't expect us to be a #1 type seed, winning most every game in a stacked conference. We will lose, maybe tonight? Maybe not. My main concern is playing well at the end of the season.. peaking. Hopefully we build and build. Point is, I think win or lose, this team won't fold after tonight. They seem different.. a lot different, than previous Gopher squads.
 

I like that they played extremely well against OSU - they can't be that good again and that we struggled vs. NW - we can't play that bad again...
 

book said:
I like that they played extremely well against OSU - they can't be that good again and that we struggled vs. NW - we can't play that bad again...
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And that is exactly why this will be a "go for the jugular" type of game.
 

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