Shama: Expanded Playoff Breath of Fresh Air for Gopher Football

[BleedGopher]

Per Shama:

The University of Minnesota football team hasn’t won’t a Big Ten championship since 1967 and that’s not likely to change in the foreseeable future with the conference adding premier programs from the west coast to join dominant schools in place for decades like Michigan and Ohio State.

But there is a development that realistically could sooner or later juice the Golden Gophers program—the expanded college football playoff starting in 2024. The expansion from four to 12 playoff teams should put a smile on the face of every loyal Gopher fan. Now this program can potentially be nationally relevant without winning the league title.

“P.J. and I are very excited with the 12-game expansion,” athletic director Mark Coyle told Sports Headliners.

Head coach P.J. Fleck’s 2019 team went 11-2 including an Outback Bowl win over Auburn. That group finished tied for first in the Big Ten West Division standings. Minnesota was ranked No. 10 in the country by two polls following its bowl win.

That 2019 outfit exemplifies a Gopher team worthy of being invited to participate in a 12-team playoff. As a member of the Big Ten, the Gophers belong to a conference exceeded in prestige and reputation only by the SEC. Talk this spring is those two leagues could annually have four or even five teams each in forthcoming playoffs.

David Shama's Minnesota Sports Headliners

Go Gophers!!

 

[HitMeAgainIAmStillMoving]

My current projection has the Gophers slotted in the 11th or 12th spot. From there anything can happen.

 

[GopherEnEspaña]

Imagine a playoff night game in Minneapolis in December.

 

[GopherJack]

I’ll have what Shama’s drinking. In this new age of NIL and transfers, I just don’t see it happening here……sorry.

 

[HitMeAgainIAmStillMoving]

Imagine a playoff night game in Minneapolis in December.

We could give out shirtsleeved Bud Grant dolls to all ticket holders.

 

[gopherbadgerman]

Lazy article. Typical talk of the power schools in the B10 and says the gophers dont have a realistic shot at a title.

 

[ergopher]

I’ll have what Shama’s drinking. In this new age of NIL and transfers, I just don’t see it happening here……sorry.

We've been punching above our weight with NIL and transfers, though. Obviously it benefits the best programs disproportionately, but we have still gained more than we have lost through those new resources. I could very plausibly see Minnesota making a CFP appearance before the 2020s are over.

 

[fmlizard]

I’ll have what Shama’s drinking. In this new age of NIL and transfers, I just don’t see it happening here……sorry.

All of this change is creating some possible paths for the Gophers to be a top 10 team again.

I'm not saying any are likely or imminent, but in my view the increasing professionalization of the sport could end up leveling the playing field over time. Minnesota, as a major media market flagship university from one of the Big 2 conferences could have a seat at the table. MSP hosts pro teams in literally every other sport, why not the newly professional college league? That league may have spending limits or a draft.

All of this change could also end up with the Gophers as part of a permanent deep underclass or a 2nd tier league and with us all looking back on the Big 14 era as the modern peak of Gopher football. We'll see...

 

[Johnny Olson]

Starting in 2025 there will be up to 22 million a year for mostly gopher football and Basketball players. Figure it out.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

I don't think Shama is being far-fetched. If the Gophers can have another season like 2019, they have a good shot at being in the Playoffs.

but for teams like the Gophers, everything has to fall in place: the right players with the right schedule, everyone stays healthy and catch a couple of breaks.

as noted before, 2019 is arguably the best season for a Gopher FB team since the early 1960's.

the question is whether they can pull it off again.

 

[upnorthkid]

Minus that this ignores that we would’ve missed the playoff and mightve missed the opportunity to play auburn (probably end up with cinci or Boise) .For a team like mn it’s going to take 11-1 in all likelihood

 

[Some guy]

Minus that this ignores that we would’ve missed the playoff and mightve missed the opportunity to play auburn (probably end up with cinci or Boise) .For a team like mn it’s going to take 11-1 in all likelihood

Completely depends on the schedule.

+ what happens with other teams.

The gophers would have a shot at the playoff if they go 9-3 against the 2024 schedule depending on how things play out elsewhere.
The gophers could also go 10-2 and miss it if there are a lot of 11-1 or better power 5 teams

 

[mngg11]

We've been punching above our weight with NIL and transfers, though. Obviously it benefits the best programs disproportionately, but we have still gained more than we have lost through those new resources. I could very plausibly see Minnesota making a CFP appearance before the 2020s are over.

If we can continue to gain more than we lose or at least stay even in terms of personnel in the portal, we'll field a team full of B10 caliber players every week and be in a position to be able to compete with almost anyone as long as the gameplan is solid. Only caveat is that we'll always need an above average qb to run the offense.

 

[mngg11]

Completely depends on the schedule.

+ what happens with other teams.

The gophers would have a shot at the playoff if they go 9-3 against the 2024 schedule depending on how things play out elsewhere.
The gophers could also go 10-2 and miss it if there are a lot of 11-1 or better power 5 teams

And let's be real, if we're 10-2, I think we'll still be pretty satisfied whether or not we make the playoffs. Most of us, anyways!

Looking back at how this message board used to be about a decade ago, it's amazing seeing these conversations being had with complete seriousness. And it's legit!

 

[Great Plains Gopher]

The 12-team playoff is a jerry-bult mess - 4 teams can skip the first round, conference champions get in ahead of higher rated teams, it creates a second season, and the Gophers, with PAC heavyweights now wrongly in the conference are unlikely to get near the playoffs. NIL is not on our side, but Nebraska should do ok in it with all the money and facilities they have. In a stack of 18 teams, fans have little to hope for. The NCAA, supposedly the government of amateur sports has lost control because of govt interference, court decisions, lawsuits, and we have anarchy. As coach said, everyone is a free agent and there are no salary caps. It will get worse before it gets better and may just stay worse. Transfer rules could be tightened up, but won't be, so the carousel will go on. Stealing players will be the new recruiting.

 

[upnorthkid]

Completely depends on the schedule.

+ what happens with other teams.

The gophers would have a shot at the playoff if they go 9-3 against the 2024 schedule depending on how things play out elsewhere.
The gophers could also go 10-2 and miss it if there are a lot of 11-1 or better power 5 teams

I’d be shocked if they’re in the top 20 if they go 9-3 with losses to say Michigan, PSU and Wisconsin. Teams like mn will not get the benefit of the “eye test” that still stupidly exists. That’s why I’m saying it’s going to take them leaving no doubt, efficient with growing conference sizes as you won’t play everyone in conference to have that head to head which will make it easier to “jump” teams based on whatever faulty logic the committee wants to come up with

 

[Some guy]

I’d be shocked if they’re in the top 20 if they go 9-3 with losses to say Michigan, PSU and Wisconsin. Teams like mn will not get the benefit of the “eye test” that still stupidly exists. That’s why I’m saying it’s going to take them leaving no doubt, efficient with growing conference sizes as you won’t play everyone in conference to have that head to head which will make it easier to “jump” teams based on whatever faulty logic the committee wants to come up with

If they do that they would have wins against
Iowa
USC
North Carolina and it would mean they were 9-1 and probably in the top 10 on Nov 22

 

[upnorthkid]

If they do that they would have wins against
Iowa
USC
North Carolina and it would mean they were 9-1 and probably in the top 10 on Nov 22

yep and when we lost to WI we dropped from 8 to 18. i'm just saying things are not the same for the "non-helmet" schools. Hopefully if we can continue to win 8-10 games/year things change. oddly enough that same week michigan lost to OSU by 30 and they dropped one spot from 13 to 14 (they also lost to WI by 21 earlier that year)

 

[Some guy]

yep and when we lost to WI we dropped from 8 to 18. i'm just saying things are not the same for the "non-helmet" schools. Hopefully if we can continue to win 8-10 games/year things change. oddly enough that same week michigan lost to OSU by 30 and they dropped one spot from 13 to 14 (they also lost to WI by 21 earlier that year)

2019 the team only had one real quality win and won a lot of games close

Florida state in 2023 faced the same issues the 2019 gophers faced and it was a bad schedule. Thats why they dropped.

Michigan dropped from 10 to 17 for losing to Ohio state.
But while Minnesota had a win over Penn state…Minnesota was 1-2 against the top 25

Michigan had 3 losses. But were 2-3 against the top 25

Talking AP rankings. Not sure what you’re talking about.
Michigan had no non top 25 losses and more top 25 wins
Minnesota rated two spots higher than Michigan following the last week of the regular season


Minnesota was the lowest rated 2 loss power 5 team.
Of other 2 loss power 5 teams
Florida had 3 top 25 wins
Alabama had 0 - Alabama jumped the gophers unjustly IMO
Wisconsin had 3 top 25 wins
Penn state had 2 top 25 wins
Oregon had just 1 top 25 win - you could argue Minnesota should’ve been rated higher but once they beat Utah in the conference title game I think that argument goes away
Notre Dame had 2 top 25 wins



But Minnesota only ranked lower than 1 3 loss team.
That team had 2 top 25 wins but both were top 12 wins and the 3 losses were to number 1, 4, and 9….although number 9 in my opinion was the most overrated team.

Did this whole analysis looking at AP instead of CFP. Which was dumb and makes it useless

 

[upnorthkid]

2019 the team only had one real quality win and won a lot of games close

Florida state in 2023 faced the same issues the 2019 gophers faced and it was a bad schedule. Thats why they dropped.

Michigan dropped from 10 to 17 for losing to Ohio state.
But while Minnesota had a win over Penn state…Minnesota was 1-2 against the top 25

Michigan had 3 losses. But were 2-3 against the top 25

Talking AP rankings. Not sure what you’re talking about.
Michigan had no non top 25 losses and more top 25 wins
Minnesota rated two spots higher than Michigan following the last week of the regular season


Minnesota was the lowest rated 2 loss power 5 team.
Of other 2 loss power 5 teams
Florida had 3 top 25 wins
Alabama had 0 - Alabama jumped the gophers unjustly IMO
Wisconsin had 3 top 25 wins
Penn state had 2 top 25 wins
Oregon had just 1 top 25 win - you could argue Minnesota should’ve been rated higher but once they beat Utah in the conference title game I think that argument goes away
Notre Dame had 2 top 25 wins



But Minnesota only ranked lower than 1 3 loss team.
That team had 2 top 25 wins but both were top 12 wins and the 3 losses were to number 1, 4, and 9….although number 9 in my opinion was the most overrated team.

Did this whole analysis looking at AP instead of CFP. Which was dumb and makes it useless

It isn’t entirely though, as you know the committee also looks at it which is egregiously silly on their part with how biased it is

also fsu dropped because their qb got hurt. The committee said as much

 

[Some guy]

It isn’t entirely though, as you know the committee also looks at it which is egregiously silly on their part with how biased it is

also fsu dropped because their qb got hurt. The committee said as much

I am surprised the non big ten non sec conference agreed to an expanded playoffs without an objective criteria. Like a formula.

A subjective committee favors conventional wisdom I would think