Gopher Warrior
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Setting Expectations: Andre Hollins
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This is the first year I did not buy a preview magazine and I specifically didn't because of all of the great previews that GopherWarrior and SelectionSunday have done on this site. You guys have done a great job. This article is great as well.
I expect Hollins to average 7ppg, and will lead the team in assists and probably turnovers, but hopefully will limit those as the season goes on.
I expect Hollins to average 7ppg, and will lead the team in assists and probably turnovers, but hopefully will limit those as the season goes on.
It may be true that Freshmen are not likely to start from day one. But if they have the talent they are often important impact players early on. It is not unusual for 4 and 5 star players to start for their colleges as freshmen and move on to the pros in a year or two. In fact, Learning a coaches' system to earn a starting spot and having the ability to impact play are not the same thing in basketball. I am inclined to say that talent is more likely to be obvious immediately than it to be taught or magically appear later on.
As far as Hollins is concerned, he only needs to prove he can shoot to be a complete player. I think he will quickly gain confidence and prove that ability.
This doesn't mean that Welch is not a better player. He may be. We'll have to wait and see.
As far as Hollins is concerned, he only needs to prove he can shoot to be a complete player. I think he will quickly gain confidence and prove that ability.
This doesn't mean that Welch is not a better player. He may be. We'll have to wait and see.
Gold Vision
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On the other hand, Bryce Cartwright (JC) and Aaron Craft (Fr) are two examples left out of your article of first year PG's that made a significant impact last year.
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@Stan - thank you for the comments; check is in the mail!
Depends on your definition of 'significant'. I was, however, trying to show progression as well as the fact that often very good players look ho-hum as freshman.
But, consider Craft - he was excellent as a freshman. Great defender which was a known, but his offense was very good as well. However, he was only used in possessions 16.7% of the time and his %Shots was down at just 11.8%. Like I said in the Ohio State preview, look for his shots attempted to rise significantly this year. Also, Craft's turnover rate was higher than his assist rate at 26.6. His offensive numbers will jump as a sophomore and you will see the same type of progression seen in so many other players from freshman to sophomore year. It'll be the same story.. although he was very good as first year guy.
As for Cartwright, I had made the comment about JUCOs briefly.. it's a different animal, but you could note that he played D1 basketball as a freshman out in California as did Julian Welch... sure, his points and assists look pretty good, but his shooting was poor, he didn't rebound, wasn't great taking care of the ball, didn't draw a lot of contact... when you get down to it, statistically, he wasn't any better than any average D1 replacement guy (bench player)... offensive rating of 91.6, %Poss 26.2 and %Shots 25.4... yes, he made a significant impact, and it was a bad one.
Depends on your definition of 'significant'. I was, however, trying to show progression as well as the fact that often very good players look ho-hum as freshman.
But, consider Craft - he was excellent as a freshman. Great defender which was a known, but his offense was very good as well. However, he was only used in possessions 16.7% of the time and his %Shots was down at just 11.8%. Like I said in the Ohio State preview, look for his shots attempted to rise significantly this year. Also, Craft's turnover rate was higher than his assist rate at 26.6. His offensive numbers will jump as a sophomore and you will see the same type of progression seen in so many other players from freshman to sophomore year. It'll be the same story.. although he was very good as first year guy.
As for Cartwright, I had made the comment about JUCOs briefly.. it's a different animal, but you could note that he played D1 basketball as a freshman out in California as did Julian Welch... sure, his points and assists look pretty good, but his shooting was poor, he didn't rebound, wasn't great taking care of the ball, didn't draw a lot of contact... when you get down to it, statistically, he wasn't any better than any average D1 replacement guy (bench player)... offensive rating of 91.6, %Poss 26.2 and %Shots 25.4... yes, he made a significant impact, and it was a bad one.
matt
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I'm the opposite of what you thought... I felt before that Welch would start at point, but now I'm warming up to the idea that Andre will start/spend more time leading the offense.
gopherbadgerman
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Probably because you saw Welch play last night. He is not a D1 difference maker, IMO...
SelectionSunday
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You've come to that conclusion after watching him play 18 minutes of basketball with a bum ankle? OK, got it.
RoyalGopher
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Dre's not a 4 or 5 star. So.....
GophersOnTheRise
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Got to love when people use their expert analysis to conclude exactly how good a player is with a sample size of less than 20 minutes in an exhibition when the player was coming off an injury. Classic.
captain.hindsight
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Both players will be fine, I just think Andre will be better because of natural abilities. It takes a while for teammates to mesh, both looked uncomfortable last night on the floor.
Even the best professional players take time to find chemistry, look at the Miami Heat who started off rough last season. Give them time, and don't panic if we lose a couple non-conference games we should in theory win.
Even the best professional players take time to find chemistry, look at the Miami Heat who started off rough last season. Give them time, and don't panic if we lose a couple non-conference games we should in theory win.
RoyalGopher
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Sorry, I didn't do my research before I posted. But whether he's 3 or 4 stars it doesn't really matter. My point was that he's not a one-and-done or a guaranteed impact player. My interpretation of Figi's posting, " But if they have the talent they are often important impact players early on. It is not unusual for 4 and 5 star players to start for their colleges as freshmen and move on to the pros in a year or two, " was that he was comparing Andre to a possible one-and-done or a guaranteed impact player, which Andre is not. I'm not bashing Andre at all. He's an excellent player, and I'm excited to have him in the program. I just don't want people to have too high of expectations for him.
freshtrout
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From what I've seen in these two exhibitions, Andre Hollins is well built, not likely to get pushed around once the BT starts. He has shown quickness and the ability to pass the ball for assists. Scoring comes later. Julian Welch (w/limited minutes played last night) is smart. He made a very nice move to the basket and scored on his own, after he had been in the game for just a few minutes. Give these two time to get into the flow of the team and other players. I expect both to improve nicely over the n/c schedule. Time with the team is what they need. Both are playing (for the first time) with all new people, on a big stage. They'll be just fine.
Me too. I think most people though Welch would be better prepared to start. Welch wasn't around for HP and there was some buzz about Andre's play.
Bayfieldgopher
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I will say we will be stronger at PG than last year with Al and Ahanmisi(sp) as his backup. Sorry Hoff.
gopherbadgerman
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You honestly think Welch will be a difference maker in the B10? I am asking...
If he turns out to be a all B10 type of player, I'll be shocked and eat my words...
I think you should add to that you'll leave the site and never come back.
SelectionSunday
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I'm certainly not going to make a determination either way having seen him play only 18 minutes of basketball on a bum wheel. Clearly, you have.
While we're here, define difference-maker for me. 1st team All-American? 2nd-team All-American? 1st-team All-Big Ten? 2nd-team All-Big Ten?
HOOP DREAMS
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Hollins > Welch
GW = Wrong again just like with the Trevor "Uh Oh"
GW did some research on freshman Big Ten pg's & why we shouldn't expect Andre to play at a high level. Lets see how they stacked up now that the season is coming to an end.
________________
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/113184?referrer_id=388419
For months, the expectations have been steadily high for Minnesota freshman combo guard Dre Hollins. Contrary to the majority of the media and fan base, I’ve always believed that incoming junior Julian Welch would be the best point guard option for the Gophers in 2011-12 and continue to believe so. Over time, both the majority of the media and fans have gradually drifted toward accepting the idea of Welch as a possibility to begin the year at point guard, even though he is still is a relatively unknown quantity.
However, the expectations of Andre continue to be high and with Welch still affected somewhat by a tender ankle, the youngster from Tennessee may very well start in Friday’s opener against a good Bucknell team.
Regardless of who starts, Hollins has the opportunity to earn a lot of minutes this year. What are reasonable expectations to place on this young man who had 8 assists and no turnovers in the team's first exhibition game? As some like to point out, he is a "top 100 recruit" that scored 46 against Findlay Prep and was the 2011 Class AAA Mr. Basketball in Tennessee. Then again, he wasn't really a top 100 recruit under most definitions (not in the RSCI top 100, or Scout top 100, but #110 Rivals and #79 ESPN) and being Mr. Basketball doesn't assure success in Division I basketball (see TN '09 Mr. Basketball Drew Kelly, who in one game scored 67 points on 26/33 shooting his senior year of high school, but did nothing at Miami (OH) and has done little at Morehead State).
Just how good Hollins' career at Minnesota can be is debatable, but Gopher fans should be glad that he is at the ‘U’. He’s a good ball player. Dre hasn't played a ton at the point guard position, but he's smart and a hard worker, both of which should help him. In addition, it's likely he'll see some of his floor time playing off the ball. If the Gophers were really going to be the running and pressing team that is currently being advertised, his adjustment to the speed of the college game would be even more difficult, but in reality the team's pace of play will only be a little faster than a year ago and will be a far cry from a "run and gun" style. The biggest problem facing Andre Hollins as a point guard is that he is in his first year of college. As Al McGuire said, “the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores”.
A freshman guard that adds significant value to his team is rare. (As a side note, first year JUCO players are rarely studs either.) A good year for Dre would be one in which he plays good perimeter defense, is average when shooting the ball and has an assist rate that is higher than his turnover rate. An inconsistent guard who averages 6 points per game, is a mediocre shooter and turns the ball over at a higher-than-average rate may not live up to the expectations of some followers of the Gophers, but that type of a performance is in line with what I’m looking for.
Some players are incredible from day one, but they are the exception. Even most highly sought after recruits usually show a fraction of their eventual selves in their first year. Listed below are certain statistics for a number of recent Big Ten point guards. These figures illustrate the progression over the players' careers, but also just how mediocre (or relatively poor) some very good players were in their first year.
Notes: The recruiting rankings don't mean a lot to me, but are included for the reader. Figures for ORtg (offensive rating), Poss% (possessions used), eFG% (effective field goal percentage), Ast (assist rate) and TO (turnover rate) were obtained from kenpom.com
Talor Battle, Penn State (N/A RSCI; #92 ESPN, #131 Rivals)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 38.1 20.2 111.9 28.5 52.3 19.8 12.0
JR 37.0 18.5 106.5 29.0 49.8 28.0 13.7
SO 37.4 16.7 109.9 27.0 49.5 29.6 15.4
FR 30.2 10.2 93.6 23.2 42.3 22.7 20.1
Demetri McCamey, Illinois (#71 RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 33.4 14.6 110.7 25.3 55.3 35.9 20.8
JR 34.5 15.1 105.7 26.8 52.0 40.8 21.9
SO 30.6 11.5 99.1 24.6 49.3 30.5 20.4
FR 27.3 8.2 91.1 22.3 45.5 26.0 26.2
Kalin Lucas, Michigan State (#34 RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 33.4 17.0 105.8 26.9 48.7 23.7 17.1
JR 31.1 14.8 110.1 25.4 50.1 25.8 18.4
SO 31.9 14.7 110.4 25.4 44.2 29.6 16.2
FR 25.1 10.3 103.4 25.3 46.3 30.0 19.8
Al Nolen, Minnesota (N/A RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 29.1 8.4 102.4 19.4 39.7 23.4 22.2
JR 25.4 6.7 108.7 18.7 42.9 31.9 19.6
SO 26.5 6.5 100.4 19.1 38.9 31.6 21.1
FR 22.6 4.3 97.0 16.1 41.2 28.3 30.3
Darius Morris, Michigan (N/A RSCI; 77 Rivals; 100 ESPN)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SO 34.8 15.0 108.9 29.3 50.9 44.4 18.4
FR 24.3 4.4 88.7 15.5 43.4 21.6 27.0
Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin (N/A RSCI; 124 Rivals)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
JR 36.5 18.1 126.9 27.4 51.7 30.4 8.5
SO 29.5 10.0 110.1 22.3 45.7 25.8 11.8
FR 13.2 1.6 80.9 13.7 29.5 17.2 19.1
Looking at mpg Andre Hollins is right there at the top.
GW = Wrong again just like with the Trevor "Uh Oh"
In only 20.5mpg.
GW did some research on freshman Big Ten pg's & why we shouldn't expect Andre to play at a high level. Lets see how they stacked up now that the season is coming to an end.
________________
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/113184?referrer_id=388419
For months, the expectations have been steadily high for Minnesota freshman combo guard Dre Hollins. Contrary to the majority of the media and fan base, I’ve always believed that incoming junior Julian Welch would be the best point guard option for the Gophers in 2011-12 and continue to believe so. Over time, both the majority of the media and fans have gradually drifted toward accepting the idea of Welch as a possibility to begin the year at point guard, even though he is still is a relatively unknown quantity.
However, the expectations of Andre continue to be high and with Welch still affected somewhat by a tender ankle, the youngster from Tennessee may very well start in Friday’s opener against a good Bucknell team.
Regardless of who starts, Hollins has the opportunity to earn a lot of minutes this year. What are reasonable expectations to place on this young man who had 8 assists and no turnovers in the team's first exhibition game? As some like to point out, he is a "top 100 recruit" that scored 46 against Findlay Prep and was the 2011 Class AAA Mr. Basketball in Tennessee. Then again, he wasn't really a top 100 recruit under most definitions (not in the RSCI top 100, or Scout top 100, but #110 Rivals and #79 ESPN) and being Mr. Basketball doesn't assure success in Division I basketball (see TN '09 Mr. Basketball Drew Kelly, who in one game scored 67 points on 26/33 shooting his senior year of high school, but did nothing at Miami (OH) and has done little at Morehead State).
Just how good Hollins' career at Minnesota can be is debatable, but Gopher fans should be glad that he is at the ‘U’. He’s a good ball player. Dre hasn't played a ton at the point guard position, but he's smart and a hard worker, both of which should help him. In addition, it's likely he'll see some of his floor time playing off the ball. If the Gophers were really going to be the running and pressing team that is currently being advertised, his adjustment to the speed of the college game would be even more difficult, but in reality the team's pace of play will only be a little faster than a year ago and will be a far cry from a "run and gun" style. The biggest problem facing Andre Hollins as a point guard is that he is in his first year of college. As Al McGuire said, “the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores”.
A freshman guard that adds significant value to his team is rare. (As a side note, first year JUCO players are rarely studs either.) A good year for Dre would be one in which he plays good perimeter defense, is average when shooting the ball and has an assist rate that is higher than his turnover rate. An inconsistent guard who averages 6 points per game, is a mediocre shooter and turns the ball over at a higher-than-average rate may not live up to the expectations of some followers of the Gophers, but that type of a performance is in line with what I’m looking for.
Some players are incredible from day one, but they are the exception. Even most highly sought after recruits usually show a fraction of their eventual selves in their first year. Listed below are certain statistics for a number of recent Big Ten point guards. These figures illustrate the progression over the players' careers, but also just how mediocre (or relatively poor) some very good players were in their first year.
Notes: The recruiting rankings don't mean a lot to me, but are included for the reader. Figures for ORtg (offensive rating), Poss% (possessions used), eFG% (effective field goal percentage), Ast (assist rate) and TO (turnover rate) were obtained from kenpom.com
Talor Battle, Penn State (N/A RSCI; #92 ESPN, #131 Rivals)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 38.1 20.2 111.9 28.5 52.3 19.8 12.0
JR 37.0 18.5 106.5 29.0 49.8 28.0 13.7
SO 37.4 16.7 109.9 27.0 49.5 29.6 15.4
FR 30.2 10.2 93.6 23.2 42.3 22.7 20.1
Demetri McCamey, Illinois (#71 RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 33.4 14.6 110.7 25.3 55.3 35.9 20.8
JR 34.5 15.1 105.7 26.8 52.0 40.8 21.9
SO 30.6 11.5 99.1 24.6 49.3 30.5 20.4
FR 27.3 8.2 91.1 22.3 45.5 26.0 26.2
Kalin Lucas, Michigan State (#34 RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 33.4 17.0 105.8 26.9 48.7 23.7 17.1
JR 31.1 14.8 110.1 25.4 50.1 25.8 18.4
SO 31.9 14.7 110.4 25.4 44.2 29.6 16.2
FR 25.1 10.3 103.4 25.3 46.3 30.0 19.8
Al Nolen, Minnesota (N/A RSCI)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SR 29.1 8.4 102.4 19.4 39.7 23.4 22.2
JR 25.4 6.7 108.7 18.7 42.9 31.9 19.6
SO 26.5 6.5 100.4 19.1 38.9 31.6 21.1
FR 22.6 4.3 97.0 16.1 41.2 28.3 30.3
Darius Morris, Michigan (N/A RSCI; 77 Rivals; 100 ESPN)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
SO 34.8 15.0 108.9 29.3 50.9 44.4 18.4
FR 24.3 4.4 88.7 15.5 43.4 21.6 27.0
Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin (N/A RSCI; 124 Rivals)
Year MPG PPG ORtg Poss% eFG% Ast TO
JR 36.5 18.1 126.9 27.4 51.7 30.4 8.5
SO 29.5 10.0 110.1 22.3 45.7 25.8 11.8
FR 13.2 1.6 80.9 13.7 29.5 17.2 19.1
Looking at mpg Andre Hollins is right there at the top.
Gopher Warrior
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I'd still start Welch over Hollins and I wasn't wrong about anything re: the other topic you brought up. However, I can understand why some would prefer Hollins over Welch at this point in time.
HOOP DREAMS
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I'd still start Welch over Hollins and I wasn't wrong
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/135/minnesota-golden-gophers
Please enplane what you see that makes Julian the better options? Because I don't see it at all. Not on the stat sheet, potential or on the court.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/135/minnesota-golden-gophers
Please enplane what you see that makes Julian the better options? Because I don't see it at all. Not on the stat sheet, potential or on the court.
Gopher Warrior
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Julian is the better option to start at point guard this year because he gives the team a better chance to win. A big reason is the very topic of article - that is, Andre is a freshman. This team has stars on the inside. A point guard with more poise and experience is the better option. Thus, Welch. I also think Welch is capable of knocking down threes with more accuracy this year than Dre is.
Stat sheet - You might be able to score 13 points against Mount St. Mary's. Too early to look at.
Potential - I agree with you. Andre has a higher ceiling than does Welch. Dre is a good player and could enjoy great success in college. However, back to the topic of the article.
On the court - I have seen it on the court. I would also remind you that Welch has been injured.
"Stat sheet - You might be able to score 13 points against Mount St. Mary's. Too early to look at."
OK,GW. You used an 18 minute sampling of Welch with a bum ankle to talk against and judge him, then used the Mt.St.Mary's game to use as a conclusion about Andre. Amazing, small samplings to comment both ways. I finally follow you.
OK,GW. You used an 18 minute sampling of Welch with a bum ankle to talk against and judge him, then used the Mt.St.Mary's game to use as a conclusion about Andre. Amazing, small samplings to comment both ways. I finally follow you.
Andre to me is the better option. He seems to be more confident and really gets the team to "run" which is what Tubby stressed he wanted more of this year.
Welch might be older, but unlike a fine wine, that doesn't make him better. Now, I would have no problem with them both on the court for a period when Austin is getting a rest. Other than that, it seems like Tubby might be leaning towards have Mav be the second guy off the bench to play the 1, not Welch.
Granted, like it's been said, he has not been 100% and maybe when it is that will change things. For now though, I see no reason to start Welch ahead of Dre'.
It is still a young season and everything we are saying now is based off of a small sample size and against NIT bubble teams (Not saying the teams are bad, but based on the leagues they are in, they pretty much have to win their championship to make the dance) so I think we need to let this thing play out until a few games before the B1G season starts.
We might have all changed our minds by then.
Welch might be older, but unlike a fine wine, that doesn't make him better. Now, I would have no problem with them both on the court for a period when Austin is getting a rest. Other than that, it seems like Tubby might be leaning towards have Mav be the second guy off the bench to play the 1, not Welch.
Granted, like it's been said, he has not been 100% and maybe when it is that will change things. For now though, I see no reason to start Welch ahead of Dre'.
It is still a young season and everything we are saying now is based off of a small sample size and against NIT bubble teams (Not saying the teams are bad, but based on the leagues they are in, they pretty much have to win their championship to make the dance) so I think we need to let this thing play out until a few games before the B1G season starts.
We might have all changed our minds by then.
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Take another read through, Doc. You might have me mixed up with someone else. That's precisely what I did not do.
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Looks like you missed the part about poise and being a better outside shooting weapon, as well as seeing both players prior to their arrival at their current school.
Gold Vision
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I'm all for playing whoever is the better option and I really haven't made up my mind on who that is with the small sample size. I think they will/should get some run on the court together.
With that said, what makes you think Welch is a better outside shooter? Dre Hollins was originally recruited as a spot up 2 man scouted for his 3pt accuracy. He has also shot a higher percentage (very small sample size) through the first four games. I also read that he lead the team in preseason practices for 3pt percentage.