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Game Preview: Gophers vs. Penn State 3/2/13
By J.B. Bauer
Penn State & Minnesota are Back to Work after Big Wins
D.J. Newbill and the Penn State Nittany Lions (9-18, 1-14) visit Williams Arena on Senior Day after upsetting #4 Michigan on Wednesday. The Minnesota Golden Gophers 19-9, 7-8) are coming off an impressive win of their own after beating #1 Indiana on Tuesday. Now, it's back to work for both squads. Tip off is scheduled for 2pm CT and the game can be seen on the Big Ten Network.
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/233350?referrer_id=331171
Minnesota and Penn State are coming off emotional and important victories, but both need to maintain focus as the calendar turns to March.
The Gophers used 23 offense rebounds and an inspired performance by Trevor Mbakwe to beat #1 Indiana Tuesday night. Minnesota didn’t shoot particularly well, but their effort on the boards, controlling the basketball and on defense were enough to edge out the Hoosiers 77-73.
On Wednesday Penn State won their first Big Ten game in 15 tries this season, completing an improbable late-game comeback at home against #4 Michigan. The Nittany Lions trailed 66-51 with 10 and a half minutes left but a 33-12 run to close out the game gave them an 84-78 win.
Against Michigan’s mediocre defense Penn State’s scored .106 points per possession more than it had against any other opponent this season. That number may seem small, but in a 69 possession game it equals more than 7 points.
The Gophers should beat Penn State by double-digits and earn their first back-to-back victory in a month, but "should" doesn't always count for much.
FOUR FACTORS (in Big Ten games)
Minnesota Offense vs. Penn State Defense
MN O PSU D
eFG% 47.7% 49.8%
TO% 22.2% 16.7%
OR% 42.0% 30.0%
FTR 40.1% 58.9%
Penn State Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
PSU O MN D
eFG% 42.3% 48.9%
TO% 19.2% 17.4%
OR% 29.7% 31.8%
FTR 32.7% 38.2%
SHOOTING
Penn State’s poor offensive and defensive eFG% are why they find themselves in the conference cellar.
The Nits don’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers but a 10-for-20 performance against Michigan was a big factor in their win. The Gophers have allowed the highest 3FG% against in the Big Ten this season.
Penn State is in 12th place in both offensive and defensive 2FG%.
The Nits have shot the ball much better as of late, posting an eFG% of 52.0% over their last four games. However, their six games of less than 36% eFG-shooting earlier in the Big Ten season continue to weigh down their average.
Minnesota didn’t have a great shooting game against Indiana (46.0% eFG%), but their 16-for-17 night on layups and dunks was enough to win. Approximately 41% of the team’s attempts were 2-point jumpers and the Gophers made only 26.9% of them. Their shot selection could be improved upon.
When Minnesota makes more than 47.2% of their 2-point field goal attempts they are 6-0 in the Big Ten. When at 47.2% or lower, they’re 1-8.
TURNOVERS
A slight edge may go to Penn State, but the Gophers were able to limit their turnovers (15.7% TO rate) against Indiana.
PSU doesn’t turn their opponents over a lot, but Michigan’s 15 turnovers (21.9%) earlier this week helped push the Nits to victory.
REBOUNDING
Minnesota certainly has the advantage here because of what they can do on the offensive boards. Penn State’s big guards are capable of doing decent work on the defensive glass, but it’s Minnesotan Ross Travis who is their best rebounder (and one of the better defensive rebounders in the Big Ten at about 20% DR%).
Six of Minnesota’s 23 offensive boards against Indiana were team rebounds. On average this season (including nonconference games) the Gophers have been getting two team rebounds per game.
In his four previous games Austin Hollins had 2 offensive boards over 139 minutes. Against the Hoosiers, the junior wing was credited with 4 offensive rebounds in 35 minutes.
FREE THROWS
Getting to the line more often than Minnesota would greatly help Penn State’s chances of pulling off a major upset, but it’ll be difficult to do. Not only does Minnesota have a healthy 40% conference free throw rate, but the Nittany Lions defense has allowed an extraordinarily high rate of 59%.
Including all D1 games played, Penn State’s defensive free throw rate ranks 345th out of 347 teams according to KenPom.com. Their 17 fouls committed against Michigan tied a season-low.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Guards D.J. Newbill (15.9p, 4.8r, 4.2a, 42.8% eFG) and Jermaine Marshall (15.4 ppg 4.5r, 2.7a, 46.3% eFG, 33.3% 3FG) are the main offensive weapons for Penn State. They’re both 6’4” guards that will shoot often but Newbill also carries a nice assist rate (30%). The redshirt sophomore transfer took over some point guard duties when Tim Frazier went out with a season-ending injury early in the 2012-13 campaign.
Other than Newbill, Marshall and the injured Frazier, no one is averaging more than 7 points per game scoring this season for second-year head coach Pat Chambers.
Forward Ross Travis (Chaska HS, Minn.) is 9/64 (14.1%) from 3-point range in his career and his eFG% this season is just 35.6%. However, the cousin of Harvard sophomore Jonah and 2014 DeLaSalle HS (Minn.) star Reid is a versatile player and has been excellent on the defensive boards.
By J.B. Bauer
Penn State & Minnesota are Back to Work after Big Wins
D.J. Newbill and the Penn State Nittany Lions (9-18, 1-14) visit Williams Arena on Senior Day after upsetting #4 Michigan on Wednesday. The Minnesota Golden Gophers 19-9, 7-8) are coming off an impressive win of their own after beating #1 Indiana on Tuesday. Now, it's back to work for both squads. Tip off is scheduled for 2pm CT and the game can be seen on the Big Ten Network.
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/233350?referrer_id=331171
Minnesota and Penn State are coming off emotional and important victories, but both need to maintain focus as the calendar turns to March.
The Gophers used 23 offense rebounds and an inspired performance by Trevor Mbakwe to beat #1 Indiana Tuesday night. Minnesota didn’t shoot particularly well, but their effort on the boards, controlling the basketball and on defense were enough to edge out the Hoosiers 77-73.
On Wednesday Penn State won their first Big Ten game in 15 tries this season, completing an improbable late-game comeback at home against #4 Michigan. The Nittany Lions trailed 66-51 with 10 and a half minutes left but a 33-12 run to close out the game gave them an 84-78 win.
Against Michigan’s mediocre defense Penn State’s scored .106 points per possession more than it had against any other opponent this season. That number may seem small, but in a 69 possession game it equals more than 7 points.
The Gophers should beat Penn State by double-digits and earn their first back-to-back victory in a month, but "should" doesn't always count for much.
FOUR FACTORS (in Big Ten games)
Minnesota Offense vs. Penn State Defense
MN O PSU D
eFG% 47.7% 49.8%
TO% 22.2% 16.7%
OR% 42.0% 30.0%
FTR 40.1% 58.9%
Penn State Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
PSU O MN D
eFG% 42.3% 48.9%
TO% 19.2% 17.4%
OR% 29.7% 31.8%
FTR 32.7% 38.2%
SHOOTING
Penn State’s poor offensive and defensive eFG% are why they find themselves in the conference cellar.
The Nits don’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers but a 10-for-20 performance against Michigan was a big factor in their win. The Gophers have allowed the highest 3FG% against in the Big Ten this season.
Penn State is in 12th place in both offensive and defensive 2FG%.
The Nits have shot the ball much better as of late, posting an eFG% of 52.0% over their last four games. However, their six games of less than 36% eFG-shooting earlier in the Big Ten season continue to weigh down their average.
Minnesota didn’t have a great shooting game against Indiana (46.0% eFG%), but their 16-for-17 night on layups and dunks was enough to win. Approximately 41% of the team’s attempts were 2-point jumpers and the Gophers made only 26.9% of them. Their shot selection could be improved upon.
When Minnesota makes more than 47.2% of their 2-point field goal attempts they are 6-0 in the Big Ten. When at 47.2% or lower, they’re 1-8.
TURNOVERS
A slight edge may go to Penn State, but the Gophers were able to limit their turnovers (15.7% TO rate) against Indiana.
PSU doesn’t turn their opponents over a lot, but Michigan’s 15 turnovers (21.9%) earlier this week helped push the Nits to victory.
REBOUNDING
Minnesota certainly has the advantage here because of what they can do on the offensive boards. Penn State’s big guards are capable of doing decent work on the defensive glass, but it’s Minnesotan Ross Travis who is their best rebounder (and one of the better defensive rebounders in the Big Ten at about 20% DR%).
Six of Minnesota’s 23 offensive boards against Indiana were team rebounds. On average this season (including nonconference games) the Gophers have been getting two team rebounds per game.
In his four previous games Austin Hollins had 2 offensive boards over 139 minutes. Against the Hoosiers, the junior wing was credited with 4 offensive rebounds in 35 minutes.
FREE THROWS
Getting to the line more often than Minnesota would greatly help Penn State’s chances of pulling off a major upset, but it’ll be difficult to do. Not only does Minnesota have a healthy 40% conference free throw rate, but the Nittany Lions defense has allowed an extraordinarily high rate of 59%.
Including all D1 games played, Penn State’s defensive free throw rate ranks 345th out of 347 teams according to KenPom.com. Their 17 fouls committed against Michigan tied a season-low.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Guards D.J. Newbill (15.9p, 4.8r, 4.2a, 42.8% eFG) and Jermaine Marshall (15.4 ppg 4.5r, 2.7a, 46.3% eFG, 33.3% 3FG) are the main offensive weapons for Penn State. They’re both 6’4” guards that will shoot often but Newbill also carries a nice assist rate (30%). The redshirt sophomore transfer took over some point guard duties when Tim Frazier went out with a season-ending injury early in the 2012-13 campaign.
Other than Newbill, Marshall and the injured Frazier, no one is averaging more than 7 points per game scoring this season for second-year head coach Pat Chambers.
Forward Ross Travis (Chaska HS, Minn.) is 9/64 (14.1%) from 3-point range in his career and his eFG% this season is just 35.6%. However, the cousin of Harvard sophomore Jonah and 2014 DeLaSalle HS (Minn.) star Reid is a versatile player and has been excellent on the defensive boards.
