Selection Sunday's The Road to Selection Sunday: Field of 68 Projection/Buzz Clips

[GopherHole Staff]

It's Zantac time for college basketball coaches and fans across the country. Tomorrow (February 1st) means college basketball's version of crunch time has arrived, and to this point our Golden Gophers -- despite much angst and consternation on this board due to on and off-court issues -- have placed themselves in excellent position to garner their third straight NCAA Tournament appearance under fourth-year head coach Tubby Smith.

http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1308

 

[station19]

SS

I see you voted for a record of 10-8 in the poll. I voted 9-9 and even considered 8-8(I'm very concerned about the guard and bench situations.

Do you think 9-9 will 'get us into the big dance' or on the bubble? Play-in game maybe?

 

[SelectionSunday]

If they get to 10-8 they'll be a lock. At 9-9 I still think their chances would be pretty solid (let's say 70-75% range), so long as 2 of the wins down the stretch are among Illinois, Michigan State and Penn State (two chances). Those are teams the Gophers most likely will be battling for positioning.

 

[howeda7]

SS: A question: Do you really think Alabama is in as an at-large with that RPI or did you just grant them the SEC 'automatic' bid for some reason?

As for the question about Penn State: While State College is a perfectly nice college town, that's pretty much all it is, and it's more in the middle of nowhere then you would think. Combine this with the awful fan support (the game I attended there couldn't have been 7,000 people there) and the fact that there are many good basketball programs in the state (Pitt, Villanova, Temple, St. Joe's etc.) and you see the problem. They can surely raid Philly and Pittsburg for the best football players. They have a much harder time doing so in basketball.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Alabama is in as the SEC automatic (they have the best conference record). Certainly not an at-large candidate at this point of the season.

 

[howeda7]

Alabama is in as the SEC automatic (they have the best conference record). Certainly not an at-large candidate at this point of the season.

OK. Since the auto-bid goes to the tournament winner and that's unlikely to be Alabama, that's somewhat misleading to put them in? Not a big deal, just clarifiying.

 

[SelectionSunday]

That's why I note (at the top of every projection) that an asterisk in multiple-bid leagues denotes the conference leader. I have to assume someone as the automatic bid for every conference, so I use the team with the best conference record or -- in the event of a tie -- the best RPI.

 

[howeda7]

That's why I note (at the top of every projection) that an asterisk in multiple-bid leagues denotes the conference leader. I have to assume someone as the automatic bid for every conference, so I use the team with the best conference record or -- in the event of a tie -- the best RPI.

I understand, and obviously you have to do that for the auto-bid leagues. It's just rare in a BCS/multi-bid league for the designated 'leader' at this point in the season to have so little chance of actually getting in.

 

[SelectionSunday]

It's just rare in a BCS/multi-bid league for the designated 'leader' at this point in the season to have so little chance of actually getting in.

I agree. In essence, the net result is another (mythical) at-large bid will open up for someone else as soon as Alabama starts to falter, which I suspect will start to happen Saturday when the Tide travels to Knoxville and follows it up with a trip to Nashville.

 

[josh087]

I agree. In essence, the net result is another (mythical) at-large bid will open up for someone else as soon as Alabama starts to falter, which I suspect will start to happen Saturday when the Tide travels to Knoxville and follows it up with a trip to Nashville.

There are probably going to be multiple bid-stealers that pop up during Championship week anyway, so even though it probably wasn't intended that way, having the Tide in there at this point is a more realistic snapshot for the teams on the bubble.

 

[howeda7]

There are probably going to be multiple bid-stealers that pop up during Championship week anyway, so even though it probably wasn't intended that way, having the Tide in there at this point is a more realistic snapshot for the teams on the bubble.

Fair point. I've just come to expect SS's projections to be perfect, so having on in there that we know is almost certianly 'wrong' threw me for a loop.

 

[josh087]

Fair point. I've just come to expect SS's projections to be perfect, so having on in there that we know is almost certianly 'wrong' threw me for a loop.

I predict this year SS will get more at large bids correct than he has in any other previous year.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I hope you are right.

I'm worried about those extra 3 bids, especially with all the junk it appears we'll have at the tail end of the bubble this season. That's where I'll have to earn my stripes. Lord help me if the tournament expands to 96 in the near future, which I think it will.

 

[josh087]

I hope you are right.

I'm worried about those extra 3 bids, especially with all the junk it appears we'll have at the tail end of the bubble this season. That's where I'll have to earn my stripes. Lord help me if the tournament expands to 96 in the near future, which I think it will.

Either way, I don't think any of us are disappointed in your work. PM me if you need a "Bracketologist Assistant" when we go to 96 teams.

 

[station19]

I hope you are right.

I'm worried about those extra 3 bids, especially with all the junk it appears we'll have at the tail end of the bubble this season. That's where I'll have to earn my stripes. Lord help me if the tournament expands to 96 in the near future, which I think it will.

Put every team in the tournament, make it best of three and dump the regular season.

 

[howeda7]

Put every team in the tournament, make it best of three and dump the regular season.

Hey, wouldn't it be nice to know that we're already a lock on Feb. 1 and all these pesky remaining games don't really matter? I bet that would motivate folks like yourself even more to drive through snowstorms to see the Michigan game, etc. And just think, Indiana would be the bubble and super motivated to beat us tomorrow.

 

[Drake University Gopher]

I can tell from your history that you are relatively proficient at selecting tournament teams, but omitting Wichita State out of the MVC is quite outrageous. After watching games all season long, they are undoubtedly the best team in the conference and the conference's only legitimate shot at an at large bid. UNI has too many bad losses (Milwaukee, Iowa, Southern Illinois, and Indiana State) and Missouri State has a relatively boring resume (wins- @UNI,@WSU). Odds are the MVC only gets one bid, unless UNI or Missouri State wins the MVC tournament by beating Wichita State in the final or UNI/MSU go on a great streak until finally losing in the tournament to Wichita.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Wichita State

All fair points, but I think Wichita State has the weakest resume of the three. The Shockers are the classic "no quality wins, but no bad losses" bubble team. They have no top-50 wins (not to mention they're 0-2 vs. Missouri State & UNI, with both games played in Wichita), but they haven't lost to anyone outside the top 100. Who knows. ... with the 3 extra at-large bids a team like that may be able to sneak away with an at-large bid, but I think the Shockers' resume to this point spells wrong side of the bubble.

I would argue that if, as you say, "They (Wichita State) are undoubtedly the best team in the conference," why are the Shockers 0-2 at home vs. the other 2 top teams in the conference?

When push comes to shove, I'll usually take a team with a couple/several top-50 wins even if they have a few bad losses, as opposed to a team with no bad losses but that hasn't really beaten anyone of note. Somehow, I think the MVC will get 2 bids this year. My best guess would be Missouri State along with one of the other two (UNI, Wichita State).