SelectionSunday
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@Fieldof68Freak
ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN -- Our look at Week 3 of the college basketball season, as always starting with our weekly “Field of 68” projection. Projected automatic qualifiers in multiple-bid conferences are noted with an *. When the NCAA releases its initial NET rankings, the projection will include team rankings.
FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through November 23, 2024)
America East (1): UMass-Lowell
American (1): Memphis
ACC (4): *Duke, Pitt, Wake Forest, North Carolina
ASUN (1): Lipscomb
Atlantic 10 (2): *Dayton, Saint Joseph’s
Big East (5): *UConn, Marquette, Saint John’s, Xavier, Creighton
Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado
Big South (1): High Point
Big Ten (10): Ohio State, Wisconsin, *Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Penn State, Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers
Big XII (9): *Houston, Kansas, Baylor, UCF, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona State
Big West (1): UC-Irvine
Coastal (1): College of Charleston
Conference USA (1): Liberty
Horizon (1): Purdue Fort Wayne
Ivy (1): Yale
MAAC (1): Saint Peter’s
MAC (1): Kent State
MEAC (1): Norfolk State
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (3): *Boise State, Nevada, Utah State
NEC (1): Central Connecticut
OVC (1): Little Rock
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (10): *Auburn, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Texas, Arkansas
SoCon (1): Furman
Southland (1): McNeese
SWAC (1): Grambling State
Summit (1): St. Thomas (ineligible for NCAA, replaced by South Dakota State)
Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State
WCC (2): *Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
WAC (1): Grand Canyon
--------------------------------------
Last 4 In: Arizona State, Arkansas, Rutgers, Saint Joseph’s
First 4 Out: Clemson, New Mexico, Ole Miss, Oregon
Next 4 Out: Arizona, Loyola-Chicago, NC State, UCLA
Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Nevada, Saint Joseph’s, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
-----------------------------------------
Power 5 Head to Head (Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State earn Power 5 status)
1 Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State (4-1, 80%)
2 SEC (15-7, 68.2%)
3 Big East (6-5, 54.5%)
4 Big Ten (8-8, 50%)
5 Big XII (8-11, 42.1%)
6 ACC (7-16, 30.4%)
(Team) Record vs. Power 5
3-0 – Gonzaga, Marquette, Tennessee
2-0 – Kansas, Mississippi State, Pitt, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt
1-0 – Auburn, Butler, Cincinnati, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Saint Mary’s, Texas Tech, Xavier
2-2 – Baylor
1-1 – Alabama, Cal, Duke, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Saint John’s, Texas, Texas A&M, UCF, Wake Forest
1-2 – Virginia
0-1 – Arizona State, Arkansas, Creighton, Florida State, Georgetown, Houston, Illinois, Kansas State, Louisville, Maryland, Miami, Michigan State, North Carolina, San Diego State, Seton Hall, South Carolina, TCU, USC, Utah, Villanova, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
0-2 – Arizona, Georgia Tech, SMU, Syracuse
(Conference) Non-Power 5 Wins over Power 5 (6 this week)
Atlantic 10 (5) -- Saint Joseph’s over Texas Tech
ASUN (4) – Jacksonville over Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4) – Utah State over Iowa
American (3) – FAU over Oklahoma State
Coastal (2) – Elon over Notre Dame
Ivy League (1)
Missouri Valley (1) – Drake over Miami
(Team) Non-Power 5 Wins over Power 5 (20)
2 -- North Florida, Saint Joseph’s
1 -- Austin Peay, Boise State, Columbia, Dayton, Drake, Elon, FAU, Fordham, Hofstra, Jacksonville, Memphis, Nevada, New Mexico, North Texas, Utah State, VCU
Gophers Non-Conference Opponents (record vs. D1)
Bethune-Cookman (1-4)
Central Michigan (2-2)
Cleveland State (2-4)
Fairleigh Dickinson (1-4)
Morgan State (1-4)
North Texas (2-1)
Omaha (1-5)
Oral Roberts (0-4)
Wichita State (5-0)
Yale (3-3)
Totals: (18-31, 36.7%)
Tommies (D1) Non-Conference Opponents (record vs. D1)
Arizona State (5-1)
Bowling Green (1-4)
Chicago State (0-6)
Green Bay (2-4)
Milwaukee (3-2)
Montana (0-3)
Northern Colorado (3-2)
Oklahoma State (4-1)
Portland State (1-3)
UC-Riverside (2-3)
Western Michigan (1-4)
Wofford (1-4)
Totals: (23-37, 38.3%)
The Tenuous Trio – Big Ten squads hoping to make it to Weakling Wednesday
My weekly opine on the 3 Big Ten teams tracking toward an early end to their 2024-25 season (no invitation to Indianapolis & the Big Ten Tournament).
(no changes from last week)
#16 USC
#17 Washington
#18 Minnesota
Bracket Racket
There are 27 bracketed tournaments in November/December. Tipping off this week, with the projected championship game prediction, are:
Cayman Islands Classic (Nov. 24-26) – Boise State over High Point
Fort Myers Tip-Off/Palms (Nov. 25-26) – Miami-Ohio over Jacksonville
Sunshine Slam/Ocean (Nov. 25-26) – Purdue Fort Wayne over Radford
Sunshine Slam/Beach (Nov. 25-26) – Penn State over Clemson
Fort Myers Tip-Off/Beach (Nov. 25, 27) – Xavier over Michigan
Maui Invitational (Nov. 25-27) – Auburn over UConn
Acrisure Holiday Invitational (Nov. 26-27) – Washington State over SMU
Cancun Challenge/Mayan (Nov. 26-27) – Gardner-Webb over North Dakota
Cancun Challenge/Riviera (Nov. 26-27) – Belmont over Wyoming
Battle 4 Atlantis (Nov. 27-29) – Gonzaga over Oklahoma
Acrisure Classic (Nov. 28-29) – Saint Mary’s over Arizona State
Acrisure Invitational (Nov. 28-29) – TCU over Washington
Arizona Tip-Off/Cactus (Nov. 28-29) – Northwestern over Mississippi State
ESPN Events Invitational (Nov. 28-29) – Florida over Wichita State
NIT Season Tip-Off (Nov. 28-29) – Utah State over North Texas
Rady Children’s Invitational (Nov. 28-29) – BYU over Purdue
Arizona Tip-Off (Nov. 29-30) – New Mexico State over Bowling Green
Bracketed Tournament Winners to Date (4): Tennessee/SEC (Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas), Texas (SEC/Legends Classic), UC-San Diego/Big West (Boardwalk Battle), UTRGV/Southland (Greenbrier River Tip-Off)
Random Ramblin’Musings
1 The SEC far and away has been the best Power 5 conference so far (see Power 5 head-to-head performance rankings above), already with two MTE tournament titles (Tennessee & Texas). Contrarily, the ACC has been mostly hot garbage.
2 The Gophers enter their most critical week of the non-conference season. Three games, 3 wins required. … Central Michigan (Monday), vs. Wichita State (Thanksgiving Day), vs. Florida or Wake Forest (Friday). Tall task, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
3 “Look” like Final 4 material: Alabama, Auburn, Gonzaga, Houston, Marquette, Tennessee
4 Under the radar/pleasant surprises through Week 3: Arizona State, Arkansas State, Columbia, DePaul, Drake, High Point, Longwood, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Nevada, Northern Colorado, Penn State, Saint Joseph’s, San Francisco, Stanford, Utah State, UTRGV, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
5 Off to a good/OK start but not buying them yet: Arkansas, Boise State, Indiana, Kansas, McNeese, Michigan State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Providence
6 Underachieving: Arizona, Colgate, Grand Canyon, Kansas City, Miami-Florida, Princeton, Santa Clara, UAB, Vermont, Villanova, VCU
7 Long season ahead: Minnesota, Northern Illinois, San Jose State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
8 Potential “Feast Week” upsets: Colorado over Michigan State (Maui quarterfinal), San Francisco over Clemson (Sunshine Slam semifinal), Louisville over Indiana (Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinal), Oklahoma over Arizona (potential Battle 4 Atlantis semifinal)
Teams With Multiple Wins over the Top 25% (91 teams) of KenPom Rankings
Gonzaga 3
Marquette 3
Memphis 3
Baylor 2
Drake 2
FAU 2
Kansas 2
Mississippi State 2
Nevada 2
Pitt 2
Purdue 2
Saint Joseph's 2
Tennessee 2
UCF 2
Wisconsin 2
5 Highest Ranked KenPom Teams Without a Win over the Top 25%
#1 Houston
#6 UConn
#7 Cincinnati
#9 Iowa State
#12 North Carolina
#1 in KenPom
Houston (3-1)
#91 (top 25% cutoff) in KenPom
UNLV (4-1)
#182 (stuck in the middle) in KenPom
Drexel (4-2)
#364 (The Dregs) in KenPom
Mississippi Valley State (1-5)
Week 4 Power 5 Head to Head
Sunday
Georgia vs. Saint John’s
LSU vs. UCF
Maryland vs. Villanova
Pitt vs. Wisconsin
Monday
Auburn vs. Iowa State
Colorado vs. Michigan State
Michigan vs. Virginia Tech
South Carolina vs. Xavier
Tuesday
Alabama vs. Houston
Creighton vs. San Diego State
Duke vs. Kansas
Notre Dame vs. Rutgers
Oregon vs. Texas A&M
Wednesday
Alabama vs. Rutgers
Creighton vs. Texas A&M
Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Houston vs. Notre Dame
Indiana vs. Louisville
Oklahoma vs. Providence
Oregon vs. San Diego State
Thanksgiving Day
Arkansas vs. Illinois
BYU vs. Ole Miss
Butler vs. Northwestern
Florida vs. Wake Forest
NC State vs. Purdue
Saint Mary’s vs. USC
Friday
Pitt @ Ohio State
Other Games to Eyeball
St. Thomas @ Milwaukee (Sunday)
Nevada vs. Oklahoma State (Sunday)
Longwood vs. McNeese (Sunday)
Drake vs. Vanderbilt (Sunday)
Memphis vs. UConn (Monday)
Clemson vs. San Francisco (Monday)
Dayton vs. North Carolina (Monday)
Grand Canyon vs. Stanford (Tuesday)
Minnesota vs. Wichita State (Thanksgiving Day)
Saint Bonaventure vs. Utah State (Thanksgiving Day)
Mississippi State vs. UNLV (Thanksgiving Day)
Arizona State vs. New Mexico (Thanksgiving Day)
The Local Guys
Minnesota Gophers – 4-1, #82 KenPom
St. Thomas Tommies – 4-3, #154 KenPom
Week 3 Teams of the Week
Power 5
Tennessee – The 6-0 Vols cruised through the Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship, drilling both Virginia (64-42) and Baylor (77-62).
Non-Power 5
Drake – The 4-0 Bulldogs advanced to the finals of the Charleston Classic with double-digit wins of 80-69 over previously unbeaten Miami-Florida and 75-63 over FAU. They’ll take on unbeaten Vanderbilt and former Michigan State PG AJ Hoggard in the championship game at 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN.
Next (planned) Field of 68: December 1
ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN -- Our look at Week 3 of the college basketball season, as always starting with our weekly “Field of 68” projection. Projected automatic qualifiers in multiple-bid conferences are noted with an *. When the NCAA releases its initial NET rankings, the projection will include team rankings.
FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through November 23, 2024)
America East (1): UMass-Lowell
American (1): Memphis
ACC (4): *Duke, Pitt, Wake Forest, North Carolina
ASUN (1): Lipscomb
Atlantic 10 (2): *Dayton, Saint Joseph’s
Big East (5): *UConn, Marquette, Saint John’s, Xavier, Creighton
Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado
Big South (1): High Point
Big Ten (10): Ohio State, Wisconsin, *Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Penn State, Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers
Big XII (9): *Houston, Kansas, Baylor, UCF, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona State
Big West (1): UC-Irvine
Coastal (1): College of Charleston
Conference USA (1): Liberty
Horizon (1): Purdue Fort Wayne
Ivy (1): Yale
MAAC (1): Saint Peter’s
MAC (1): Kent State
MEAC (1): Norfolk State
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (3): *Boise State, Nevada, Utah State
NEC (1): Central Connecticut
OVC (1): Little Rock
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (10): *Auburn, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Texas, Arkansas
SoCon (1): Furman
Southland (1): McNeese
SWAC (1): Grambling State
Summit (1): St. Thomas (ineligible for NCAA, replaced by South Dakota State)
Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State
WCC (2): *Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
WAC (1): Grand Canyon
--------------------------------------
Last 4 In: Arizona State, Arkansas, Rutgers, Saint Joseph’s
First 4 Out: Clemson, New Mexico, Ole Miss, Oregon
Next 4 Out: Arizona, Loyola-Chicago, NC State, UCLA
Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Nevada, Saint Joseph’s, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
-----------------------------------------
Power 5 Head to Head (Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State earn Power 5 status)
1 Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State (4-1, 80%)
2 SEC (15-7, 68.2%)
3 Big East (6-5, 54.5%)
4 Big Ten (8-8, 50%)
5 Big XII (8-11, 42.1%)
6 ACC (7-16, 30.4%)
(Team) Record vs. Power 5
3-0 – Gonzaga, Marquette, Tennessee
2-0 – Kansas, Mississippi State, Pitt, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt
1-0 – Auburn, Butler, Cincinnati, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Saint Mary’s, Texas Tech, Xavier
2-2 – Baylor
1-1 – Alabama, Cal, Duke, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Saint John’s, Texas, Texas A&M, UCF, Wake Forest
1-2 – Virginia
0-1 – Arizona State, Arkansas, Creighton, Florida State, Georgetown, Houston, Illinois, Kansas State, Louisville, Maryland, Miami, Michigan State, North Carolina, San Diego State, Seton Hall, South Carolina, TCU, USC, Utah, Villanova, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
0-2 – Arizona, Georgia Tech, SMU, Syracuse
(Conference) Non-Power 5 Wins over Power 5 (6 this week)
Atlantic 10 (5) -- Saint Joseph’s over Texas Tech
ASUN (4) – Jacksonville over Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4) – Utah State over Iowa
American (3) – FAU over Oklahoma State
Coastal (2) – Elon over Notre Dame
Ivy League (1)
Missouri Valley (1) – Drake over Miami
(Team) Non-Power 5 Wins over Power 5 (20)
2 -- North Florida, Saint Joseph’s
1 -- Austin Peay, Boise State, Columbia, Dayton, Drake, Elon, FAU, Fordham, Hofstra, Jacksonville, Memphis, Nevada, New Mexico, North Texas, Utah State, VCU
Gophers Non-Conference Opponents (record vs. D1)
Bethune-Cookman (1-4)
Central Michigan (2-2)
Cleveland State (2-4)
Fairleigh Dickinson (1-4)
Morgan State (1-4)
North Texas (2-1)
Omaha (1-5)
Oral Roberts (0-4)
Wichita State (5-0)
Yale (3-3)
Totals: (18-31, 36.7%)
Tommies (D1) Non-Conference Opponents (record vs. D1)
Arizona State (5-1)
Bowling Green (1-4)
Chicago State (0-6)
Green Bay (2-4)
Milwaukee (3-2)
Montana (0-3)
Northern Colorado (3-2)
Oklahoma State (4-1)
Portland State (1-3)
UC-Riverside (2-3)
Western Michigan (1-4)
Wofford (1-4)
Totals: (23-37, 38.3%)
The Tenuous Trio – Big Ten squads hoping to make it to Weakling Wednesday
My weekly opine on the 3 Big Ten teams tracking toward an early end to their 2024-25 season (no invitation to Indianapolis & the Big Ten Tournament).
(no changes from last week)
#16 USC
#17 Washington
#18 Minnesota
Bracket Racket
There are 27 bracketed tournaments in November/December. Tipping off this week, with the projected championship game prediction, are:
Cayman Islands Classic (Nov. 24-26) – Boise State over High Point
Fort Myers Tip-Off/Palms (Nov. 25-26) – Miami-Ohio over Jacksonville
Sunshine Slam/Ocean (Nov. 25-26) – Purdue Fort Wayne over Radford
Sunshine Slam/Beach (Nov. 25-26) – Penn State over Clemson
Fort Myers Tip-Off/Beach (Nov. 25, 27) – Xavier over Michigan
Maui Invitational (Nov. 25-27) – Auburn over UConn
Acrisure Holiday Invitational (Nov. 26-27) – Washington State over SMU
Cancun Challenge/Mayan (Nov. 26-27) – Gardner-Webb over North Dakota
Cancun Challenge/Riviera (Nov. 26-27) – Belmont over Wyoming
Battle 4 Atlantis (Nov. 27-29) – Gonzaga over Oklahoma
Acrisure Classic (Nov. 28-29) – Saint Mary’s over Arizona State
Acrisure Invitational (Nov. 28-29) – TCU over Washington
Arizona Tip-Off/Cactus (Nov. 28-29) – Northwestern over Mississippi State
ESPN Events Invitational (Nov. 28-29) – Florida over Wichita State
NIT Season Tip-Off (Nov. 28-29) – Utah State over North Texas
Rady Children’s Invitational (Nov. 28-29) – BYU over Purdue
Arizona Tip-Off (Nov. 29-30) – New Mexico State over Bowling Green
Bracketed Tournament Winners to Date (4): Tennessee/SEC (Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas), Texas (SEC/Legends Classic), UC-San Diego/Big West (Boardwalk Battle), UTRGV/Southland (Greenbrier River Tip-Off)
Random Ramblin’Musings
1 The SEC far and away has been the best Power 5 conference so far (see Power 5 head-to-head performance rankings above), already with two MTE tournament titles (Tennessee & Texas). Contrarily, the ACC has been mostly hot garbage.
2 The Gophers enter their most critical week of the non-conference season. Three games, 3 wins required. … Central Michigan (Monday), vs. Wichita State (Thanksgiving Day), vs. Florida or Wake Forest (Friday). Tall task, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
3 “Look” like Final 4 material: Alabama, Auburn, Gonzaga, Houston, Marquette, Tennessee
4 Under the radar/pleasant surprises through Week 3: Arizona State, Arkansas State, Columbia, DePaul, Drake, High Point, Longwood, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Nevada, Northern Colorado, Penn State, Saint Joseph’s, San Francisco, Stanford, Utah State, UTRGV, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
5 Off to a good/OK start but not buying them yet: Arkansas, Boise State, Indiana, Kansas, McNeese, Michigan State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Providence
6 Underachieving: Arizona, Colgate, Grand Canyon, Kansas City, Miami-Florida, Princeton, Santa Clara, UAB, Vermont, Villanova, VCU
7 Long season ahead: Minnesota, Northern Illinois, San Jose State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
8 Potential “Feast Week” upsets: Colorado over Michigan State (Maui quarterfinal), San Francisco over Clemson (Sunshine Slam semifinal), Louisville over Indiana (Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinal), Oklahoma over Arizona (potential Battle 4 Atlantis semifinal)
Teams With Multiple Wins over the Top 25% (91 teams) of KenPom Rankings
Gonzaga 3
Marquette 3
Memphis 3
Baylor 2
Drake 2
FAU 2
Kansas 2
Mississippi State 2
Nevada 2
Pitt 2
Purdue 2
Saint Joseph's 2
Tennessee 2
UCF 2
Wisconsin 2
5 Highest Ranked KenPom Teams Without a Win over the Top 25%
#1 Houston
#6 UConn
#7 Cincinnati
#9 Iowa State
#12 North Carolina
#1 in KenPom
Houston (3-1)
#91 (top 25% cutoff) in KenPom
UNLV (4-1)
#182 (stuck in the middle) in KenPom
Drexel (4-2)
#364 (The Dregs) in KenPom
Mississippi Valley State (1-5)
Week 4 Power 5 Head to Head
Sunday
Georgia vs. Saint John’s
LSU vs. UCF
Maryland vs. Villanova
Pitt vs. Wisconsin
Monday
Auburn vs. Iowa State
Colorado vs. Michigan State
Michigan vs. Virginia Tech
South Carolina vs. Xavier
Tuesday
Alabama vs. Houston
Creighton vs. San Diego State
Duke vs. Kansas
Notre Dame vs. Rutgers
Oregon vs. Texas A&M
Wednesday
Alabama vs. Rutgers
Creighton vs. Texas A&M
Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Houston vs. Notre Dame
Indiana vs. Louisville
Oklahoma vs. Providence
Oregon vs. San Diego State
Thanksgiving Day
Arkansas vs. Illinois
BYU vs. Ole Miss
Butler vs. Northwestern
Florida vs. Wake Forest
NC State vs. Purdue
Saint Mary’s vs. USC
Friday
Pitt @ Ohio State
Other Games to Eyeball
St. Thomas @ Milwaukee (Sunday)
Nevada vs. Oklahoma State (Sunday)
Longwood vs. McNeese (Sunday)
Drake vs. Vanderbilt (Sunday)
Memphis vs. UConn (Monday)
Clemson vs. San Francisco (Monday)
Dayton vs. North Carolina (Monday)
Grand Canyon vs. Stanford (Tuesday)
Minnesota vs. Wichita State (Thanksgiving Day)
Saint Bonaventure vs. Utah State (Thanksgiving Day)
Mississippi State vs. UNLV (Thanksgiving Day)
Arizona State vs. New Mexico (Thanksgiving Day)
The Local Guys
Minnesota Gophers – 4-1, #82 KenPom
St. Thomas Tommies – 4-3, #154 KenPom
Week 3 Teams of the Week
Power 5
Tennessee – The 6-0 Vols cruised through the Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship, drilling both Virginia (64-42) and Baylor (77-62).
Non-Power 5
Drake – The 4-0 Bulldogs advanced to the finals of the Charleston Classic with double-digit wins of 80-69 over previously unbeaten Miami-Florida and 75-63 over FAU. They’ll take on unbeaten Vanderbilt and former Michigan State PG AJ Hoggard in the championship game at 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN.
Next (planned) Field of 68: December 1
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