Saturday, March 15 Snapshot Look at the Field of 68: 4 Bids Available Heading Into Saturday

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Weakling Wednesday in the B1G has no bearing on the bubble, just as the planners in the dark room desired. Word was they eliminated the three doormats to protect the 9 seed from getting upset and potentially losing a bid. I hate it when the elites machinations win! 💵😂
 

Full disclosure:

I’m considering rescinding San Diego State’s “lock” status if the Aztecs lose to Boise State on Thursday night. I don’t do it often, but sometimes a revisit of a team’s resume makes it necessary. TBD.
 

Oklahoma gets their 20th win. They're surely in now. Probably not even first four.
 


Through March 12. … tomorrow morning will be the last report until Sunday's final projection.

Available At-Large Bids = 6
Auto Bids Earned = 14 (17 remain)

Automatic Bid/Placeholders (31) -- bold/italic = clinched auto bid
America East: #1 Bryant
American: #1 Memphis
ACC: #1 Duke
ASUN: #1 LIPSCOMB
Atlantic 10: #1 VCU
Big East: #1 Saint John's
Big Sky: #2 MONTANA
Big South: #1 HIGH POINT
Big Ten: #1 Michigan State
Big XII: #1 Houston
Big West: #1 UC-San Diego
Coastal: #2 UNC-WILMINGTON
Conference USA: #1 Liberty
Horizon: #1 ROBERT MORRIS
Ivy: #1 Yale
MAAC: #1 Quinnipiac
MAC: #1 Akron
MEAC: #1 Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: #1 DRAKE
Mountain West: #1 New Mexico
NEC: #3 SAINT FRANCIS
OVC: #2 SIU-EDWARDSVILLE
Patriot: #2 AMERICAN
SEC: #1 Auburn
SoCon: #6 WOFFORD
Southland: #1 McNEESE
SWAC: #2 Jackson State
Summit: #1 OMAHA
Sun Belt: #3 TROY
WCC: #2 GONZAGA
WAC: #1 Utah Valley

Non-Auto Bid Locks (31)
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
BYU
Clemson
Creighton
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Iowa State
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Missouri
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Oregon
Purdue
Saint Mary’s
San Diego State
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA
UConn
Utah State
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Almost There; Win Next Game & They're Locked In (2)
Baylor (v. Texas Tech)
Indiana (vs. Oregon)

Squarely on the Bubble (8 for 4 spots)
Boise State
Colorado State
North Carolina
Texas
UC-Irvine
Vanderbilt — season complete
Wake Forest
Xavier

Longshots (4)
Dayton
North Texas
Ohio State — season complete
SMU

Lurking As Potential At-Larges If Don't Win Conference Tourney (2)
UC-San Diego (Big West)
VCU (Atlantic 10)

Thursday Bracket Notes
1. We added two locks, both from the SEC, Arkansas and Oklahoma. The Sooners did what they had to do, adding another quality win (Georgia) to their resume. Despite the 7-12 conference record (includes SEC Tournament results), there's now no way I'm leaving OU out of the field. The Sooners have 9 wins over the NET top 50, 6 of those on the road or at a neutral site.

Arkansas' resume is not quite as strong as the Sooners, but the Hogs have 8 wins vs. the top 50, 4 of which are road/neutral. Beating quality opponents, espcially AWAY FROM HOME, matters.

2. Random thought: I think Vanderbilt is in some peril. Commodores still can make the field, but if they're one of the last few teams being looked at, that (current) #331 non-conference SOS could reach out and bite them.

3. No automatic bids today or Friday. The bubble starts getting real today.

4. Bubblicious games:
Indiana (vs. Oregon), 11 (BTN)
Xavier (vs. Marquette), 1:30 (Peacock)
North Carolina vs. Wake Forest, 1:30 (ESPN)
Texas (vs. Texas A&M), 2:30 (SECN)
Boise State (vs. San Diego State), 4:30 (CBSSN)
Baylor (vs. Texas Tech), 6 (ESPN)
Colorado State (vs. Nevada), 8 (CBSSN)
SMU (vs. Clemson), 8:30 (ESPN2)
 
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Through March 13. … the final projection will be late Saturday night/early Selection Sunday morning.

Available At-Large Bids = 5
Auto Bids Earned = 14 (17 remain)

Automatic Bid/Placeholders (31) -- bold/italic = clinched auto bid
America East: #1 Bryant
American: #1 Memphis
ACC: #1 Duke
ASUN: #1 LIPSCOMB
Atlantic 10: #1 VCU
Big East: #1 Saint John's
Big Sky: #2 MONTANA
Big South: #1 HIGH POINT
Big Ten: #1 Michigan State
Big XII: #1 Houston
Big West: #1 UC-San Diego
Coastal: #2 UNC-WILMINGTON
Conference USA: #1 Liberty
Horizon: #1 ROBERT MORRIS
Ivy: #1 Yale
MAAC: #1 Quinnipiac
MAC: #1 Akron
MEAC: #1 Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: #1 DRAKE
Mountain West: #1 New Mexico
NEC: #3 SAINT FRANCIS
OVC: #2 SIU-EDWARDSVILLE
Patriot: #2 AMERICAN
SEC: #1 Auburn
SoCon: #6 WOFFORD
Southland: #1 McNEESE
SWAC: #2 Jackson State
Summit: #1 OMAHA
Sun Belt: #3 TROY
WCC: #2 GONZAGA
WAC: #1 Utah Valley

Non-Auto Bid Locks (32)
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas -- season complete
Baylor -- season complete
BYU
Clemson
Creighton
Florida
Georgia -- season complete
Illinois
Iowa State -- season complete
Kansas -- season complete
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Missouri
Oklahoma -- season complete
Ole Miss
Oregon
Purdue
Saint Mary’s -- season complete
San Diego State -- season complete
Tennessee
Texas A&M -- season complete
Texas Tech
UCLA
UConn
Utah State
West Virginia -- season complete
Wisconsin

Squarely on the Bubble (9 teams for 5 spots)
Boise State
Colorado State
Dayton
Indiana -- season complete
North Carolina -- locked in if they beat Duke today
Texas -- locked in if they beat Tennessee today
UC-Irvine
Vanderbilt — season complete
Xavier -- season complete

Longshots (3)
North Texas
Ohio State — season complete
Wake Forest -- season complete

Lurking As Potential Bid-Stealers If Don't Win Conference Tourney (2)
UC-San Diego (Big West)
VCU (Atlantic 10)

Friday Bracket Notes
1. No automatic bids today.

2. I locked in Baylor overnight. Also took another look at San Diego State and decided Aztecs will retain their lock status. Don't be surprised if they end up in the "last 4 in".

3. The two Mountain West semifinals are filled with bubble intrigue. To remain in the at-large conversation, Boise State needs to beat Richard Pitino's Lobos, while Colorado State needs to beat Utah State. Lose and both are almost certainly toast.

4. Bubblicious games:
Texas (vs. Tennessee), 2:30 (ESPN)
North Carolina (vs. Duke), 6 (ESPN)
North Texas (vs. Tulsa), 6 (ESPNU)
Dayton (vs. Saint Joseph's), 6:30 (Peacock)
Boise State (vs. New Mexico), 8:30 (CBSSN)
UC-Irvine (vs. Cal Poly), 10:30 (ESPN2)
Colorado State (vs. Utah State), 11 (CBSSN)
 

SelectionSunday said:
Available At-Large Bids = 5
Auto Bids Earned = 14 (17 remain)

Automatic Bid/Placeholders (31) -- bold/italic = clinched auto bid
America East: #1 Bryant
American: #1 Memphis
ACC: #1 Duke
ASUN: #1 LIPSCOMB
Atlantic 10: #1 VCU
Big East: #1 Saint John's
Big Sky: #2 MONTANA
Big South: #1 HIGH POINT
Big Ten: #1 Michigan State
Big XII: #1 Houston
Big West: #1 UC-San Diego
Coastal: #2 UNC-WILMINGTON
Conference USA: #1 Liberty
Horizon: #1 ROBERT MORRIS
Ivy: #1 Yale
MAAC: #1 Quinnipiac
MAC: #1 Akron
MEAC: #1 Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: #1 DRAKE
Mountain West: #1 New Mexico
NEC: #3 SAINT FRANCIS
OVC: #2 SIU-EDWARDSVILLE
Patriot: #2 AMERICAN
SEC: #1 Auburn
SoCon: #6 WOFFORD
Southland: #1 McNEESE
SWAC: #2 Jackson State
Summit: #1 OMAHA
Sun Belt: #3 TROY
WCC: #2 GONZAGA
WAC: #1 Utah Valley

Non-Auto Bid Locks (32)
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas -- season complete
Baylor -- season complete
BYU
Clemson
Creighton
Florida
Georgia -- season complete
Illinois
Iowa State -- season complete
Kansas -- season complete
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Missouri
Oklahoma -- season complete
Ole Miss
Oregon
Purdue
Saint Mary’s -- season complete
San Diego State -- season complete
Tennessee
Texas A&M -- season complete
Texas Tech
UCLA
UConn
Utah State
West Virginia -- season complete
Wisconsin

Squarely on the Bubble (9 teams for 5 spots)
Boise State
Colorado State
Dayton
Indiana -- season complete
North Carolina -- locked in if they beat Duke today
Texas -- locked in if they beat Tennessee today
UC-Irvine
Vanderbilt — season complete
Xavier -- season complete

Longshots (3)
North Texas
Ohio State — season complete
Wake Forest -- season complete

Lurking As Potential Bid-Stealers If Don't Win Conference Tourney (2)
UC-San Diego (Big West)
VCU (Atlantic 10)

Friday Bracket Notes
1. No automatic bids today.

2. I locked in Baylor overnight. Also took another look at San Diego State and decided Aztecs will retain their lock status. Don't be surprised if they end up in the "last 4 in".

3. The two Mountain West semifinals are filled with bubble intrigue. To remain in the at-large conversation, Boise State needs to beat Richard Pitino's Lobos, while Colorado State needs to beat Utah State. Lose and both are almost certainly toast.

4. Bubblicious games:
Texas (vs. Tennessee), 2:30 (ESPN)
North Carolina (vs. Duke), 6 (ESPN)
North Texas (vs. Tulsa), 6 (ESPNU)
Dayton (vs. Saint Joseph's), 6:30 (Peacock)
Boise State (vs. New Mexico), 8:30 (CBSSN)
UC-Irvine (vs. Cal Poly), 10:30 (ESPN2)
Colorado State (vs. Utah State), 11 (CBSSN)
Click to expand...
Hoping I can stay awake for the two MWC games. A lot riding on those games. Colorado State has really come on, and Boise grinded out a tough win yesterday.
 

Looking forward to Selection's update (today?). Niko Medved and Leon Rice have put the committee in a challenging spot, with New Mexico a lock, and also San Diego State in the mix. I think this will be the first year in a long while when Dutcher's team does NOT make the tourney? No matter on SDSU, if Colorado State wins today, some other team is losing out, maybe SEC like Texas, Oklahoma or similar. Unless both Boise State and SDSU are left out. I suspect Colorado State still needs to win today, not sure they're in unless auto-bid.
 

Through March 14 (8:30 p.m.). … the final projection will be late tonight/early Selection Sunday morning.

Available At-Large Bids = 4
Auto Bids Earned = 21 (10 remain)

Automatic Bid/Placeholders (31) -- bold/italic = clinched auto bid
America East: #1 BRYANT
American: #1 Memphis
ACC: #1 Duke
ASUN: #1 LIPSCOMB
Atlantic 10: #1 VCU
Big East: #1 SAINT JOHN'S
Big Sky: #2 MONTANA
Big South: #1 HIGH POINT
Big Ten: #3 Michigan
Big XII: #1 HOUSTON
Big West: #1 UC-San Diego
Coastal: #2 UNC-WILMINGTON
Conference USA: #1 Liberty
Horizon: #1 ROBERT MORRIS
Ivy: #1 Yale
MAAC: #6 MOUNT SAINT MARY'S
MAC: #1 AKRON
MEAC: #1 NORFOLK STATE
Missouri Valley: #1 DRAKE
Mountain West: #2 COLORADO STATE
NEC: #3 SAINT FRANCIS
OVC: #2 SIU-EDWARDSVILLE
Patriot: #2 AMERICAN
SEC: #2 Florida
SoCon: #6 WOFFORD
Southland: #1 McNEESE
SWAC: #2 Jackson State
Summit: #1 OMAHA
Sun Belt: #3 TROY
WCC: #2 GONZAGA
WAC: #1 Utah Valley

Non-Auto Bid Locks (33)
Alabama -- season complete
Arizona -- season complete
Arkansas -- season complete
Auburn -- season complete
Baylor -- season complete
BYU -- season complete
Clemson -- season complete
Creighton -- season complete
Georgia -- season complete
Illinois -- season complete
Iowa State -- season complete
Kansas -- season complete
Kentucky -- season complete
Louisville
Marquette -- season complete
Maryland -- season complete
Michigan State -- season complete
Missouri - season complete
New Mexico -- season complete
Oklahoma -- season complete
Ole Miss -- season complete
Oregon -- season complete
Purdue -- season complete
Saint Mary’s -- season complete
San Diego State -- season complete
Tennessee
Texas A&M -- season complete
Texas Tech -- season complete
UCLA -- season complete
UConn -- season complete
Utah State -- season complete
West Virginia -- season complete
Wisconsin

Squarely on the Bubble (6 teams for 4 spots)
Boise State -- season complete
Indiana -- season complete
Texas -- season complete
UC-Irvine/UC-San Diego loser
Vanderbilt — season complete
Xavier -- season complete

No Longer Under Consideration (6)
Dayton -- season complete
North Carolina -- season complete
Ohio State — season complete
SMU -- season complete
Wake Forest -- season complete

Lurking As Potential Bid-Stealers If Don't Win Conference Tourney (3)
UC-San Diego (Big West)

Saturday Bracket Notes
1. Twelve automatic bids will be doled out today:
America East -- #3 Maine @ #1 Bryant, 10 (ESPN2)
MEAC -- #1 Norfolk State vs. #2 South Carolina State, noon (ESPN2)
Big XII -- #1 Houston vs. #3 Arizona, 5 (ESPN)
Mountain West -- #2 Colorado State vs. #5 Boise State, 5 (CBS)
Big East -- #1 Saint John's vs. #2 Creighton, 5:30 (FOX)
MAAC -- #4 Iona vs. #6 Mount Saint Mary's, 6:30 (ESPNU)
MAC -- #1 Akron vs. #2 Miami-Ohio, 6:40 (ESPN2)
ACC -- #1 Duke vs. #2 Louisville, 7:30 (ESPN)
Conference USA -- #1 Liberty vs. #2 Jacksonville State, 7:30 (CBSSN)
SWAC -- #2 Jackson State vs. #5 Alabama State, 8:30 (ESPNU)
Big West -- #1 UC-San Diego vs. #2 UC-Irvine, 8:30 (ESPN2)
WAC -- #1 Utah Valley vs. #2 Grand Canyon, 10:30 (ESPN2)

2. New Mexico becomes our 33rd non-auto bid lock after falling to Boise State in the Mountain West semifinals. I think Boise State has a better chance for an at-large bid than fellow MW finalist Colorado State, but both are better off not leaving things to chance. The loser very well could be squeezed out, especially with a couple other potential bid-stealers (UC-San Diego, VCU) lurking.

3. Bubblicious games:
Boise State (vs. Colorado State)
UC-Irvine (vs. UC-San Diego)
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Through March 14. … the final projection will be late tonight/early Selection Sunday morning.

Available At-Large Bids = 4
Auto Bids Earned = 14 (17 remain)

Automatic Bid/Placeholders (31) -- bold/italic = clinched auto bid
America East: #1 Bryant
American: #1 Memphis
ACC: #1 Duke
ASUN: #1 LIPSCOMB
Atlantic 10: #1 VCU
Big East: #1 Saint John's
Big Sky: #2 MONTANA
Big South: #1 HIGH POINT
Big Ten: #1 Michigan State
Big XII: #1 Houston
Big West: #1 UC-San Diego
Coastal: #2 UNC-WILMINGTON
Conference USA: #1 Liberty
Horizon: #1 ROBERT MORRIS
Ivy: #1 Yale
MAAC: #4 Iona
MAC: #1 Akron
MEAC: #1 Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: #1 DRAKE
Mountain West: #2 Colorado State
NEC: #3 SAINT FRANCIS
OVC: #2 SIU-EDWARDSVILLE
Patriot: #2 AMERICAN
SEC: #1 Auburn
SoCon: #6 WOFFORD
Southland: #1 McNEESE
SWAC: #2 Jackson State
Summit: #1 OMAHA
Sun Belt: #3 TROY
WCC: #2 GONZAGA
WAC: #1 Utah Valley

Non-Auto Bid Locks (33)
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas -- season complete
Baylor -- season complete
BYU -- season complete
Clemson -- season complete
Creighton
Florida
Georgia -- season complete
Illinois -- season complete
Iowa State -- season complete
Kansas -- season complete
Kentucky -- season complete
Louisville
Marquette -- season complete
Maryland
Michigan
Missouri - season complete
New Mexico -- season complete
Oklahoma -- season complete
Ole Miss -- season complete
Oregon -- season complete
Purdue -- season complete
Saint Mary’s -- season complete
San Diego State -- season complete
Tennessee
Texas A&M -- season complete
Texas Tech -- season complete
UCLA -- season complete
UConn -- season complete
Utah State -- season complete
West Virginia -- season complete
Wisconsin

Squarely on the Bubble (6 teams for 4 spots)
Boise State
Indiana -- season complete
Texas -- season complete
UC-Irvine
Vanderbilt — season complete
Xavier -- season complete

No Longer Under Consideration (6)
Dayton -- season complete
North Carolina -- season complete
North Texas
Ohio State — season complete
SMU -- season complete
Wake Forest -- season complete

Lurking As Potential Bid-Stealers If Don't Win Conference Tourney (3)
Colorado State (Mountain West)
UC-San Diego (Big West)
VCU (Atlantic 10)

Saturday Bracket Notes
1. Twelve automatic bids will be doled out today:
America East -- #3 Maine @ #1 Bryant, 10 (ESPN2)
MEAC -- #1 Norfolk State vs. #2 South Carolina State, noon (ESPN2)
Big XII -- #1 Houston vs. #3 Arizona, 5 (ESPN)
Mountain West -- #2 Colorado State vs. #5 Boise State, 5 (CBS)
Big East -- #1 Saint John's vs. #2 Creighton, 5:30 (FOX)
MAAC -- #4 Iona vs. #6 Mount Saint Mary's, 6:30 (ESPNU)
MAC -- #1 Akron vs. #2 Miami-Ohio, 6:40 (ESPN2)
ACC -- #1 Duke vs. #2 Louisville, 7:30 (ESPN)
Conference USA -- #1 Liberty vs. #2 Jacksonville State, 7:30 (CBSSN)
SWAC -- #2 Jackson State vs. #5 Alabama State, 8:30 (ESPNU)
Big West -- #1 UC-San Diego vs. #2 UC-Irvine, 8:30 (ESPN2)
WAC -- #1 Utah Valley vs. #2 Grand Canyon, 10:30 (ESPN2)

2. New Mexico becomes our 33rd non-auto bid lock after falling to Boise State in the Mountain West semifinals. I think Boise State has a better chance for an at-large bid than fellow MW finalist Colorado State, but both are better off not leaving things to chance. The loser very well could be squeezed out, especially with a couple other potential bid-stealers (UC-San Diego, VCU) lurking.

3. Bubblicious games:
Boise State (vs. Colorado State)
UC-Irvine (vs. UC-San Diego)
Click to expand...
That UCSD-UCI game could be a good one. UCSD coach sure is solid. Not sure he's leaving the state of California for another job, but we'll see.
 

SS, what are your thoughts on St John's and the likelihood they make a deep run?

They are tough, imo.
 

Hodger, call me surprised that you haven’t highlighted the Maine Black Bears being on the cusp of an automatic bid. Kind of unbelievable how they are that close after being so consistently bad for so long.

As always, thanks for the effort you put in on this and allowing the rest of us to glide on your work.
 

BarnBurner said:
SS, what are your thoughts on St John's and the likelihood they make a deep run?

They are tough, imo.
Click to expand...
I think St. John’s and Michigan State are very similar. Legendary coaches, physical, play defense, but don’t shoot the 3 very well. They’ll have to grind out wins. Not sure I’d trust either one beyond the Sweet 16.
 



SelectionSunday said:
I think St. John’s and Michigan State are very similar. Legendary coaches, physical, play defense, but don’t shoot the 3 very well. They’ll have to grind out wins. Not sure I’d trust either one beyond the Sweet 16.
Click to expand...
Yup, that's what I see as well. Just love the way St. John's plays.
 

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