Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
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- Reaction score
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Welcome back to the sometimes entertaining, never-quite-correct Sagarin predictions for 2015. This year, I'll be using three different numbers - the GOLDEN_MEAN spreads, the PREDICTOR spreads, and the newly unveiled RECENT spreads, found here. For the first week of the season, all three numbers are the exact same, so you won't see them all listed below. That won't be the case in subsequent weeks.
How did it end up at the conclusion of last year? Not terribly. It retroactively predicted a win against Illinois (we lost) and retroactively predicted a loss against Nebraska (we won). How did it do at the beginning of the season? Worse, predicting losses against Michigan, Iowa and Nebraska and a win against the Fighting Illini.
So all that said, the key thing to keep in mind is that these numbers are strictly for entertainment purposes only, and particularly at the beginning of the season, they may be pretty far off. The formula is taking a lot of last year into account as Mr. Sagarin ranks teams, and as we all know, college football changes a lot from year-to-year.
Still, enjoy these, debate over them, and relish the fact that we're just two and a half weeks away from kicking off the season under the lights at TCF.
Without further ado ...
vs TCU (+13.5)
@ Colorado State (-5.5)
vs Kent State (-23)
vs Ohio (-19)
@ Northwestern (-0.5)
@ Purdue (-8.5)
vs Nebraska (+3)
vs Michigan (-1)
@ Ohio State (+17)
@ Iowa (+3)
vs Illinois (-10)
vs Wisconsin (+8.5)
Predicted Record 7-5 (4-4)
Likely wins (>6 point difference in favor of Minnesota): vs Kent State, vs Ohio, @ Purdue, vs Illinois
Likely toss-ups (within 6 points): @ Colorado State, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska, vs Michigan, @ Iowa
Likely losses (>6 point difference in favor of opponent): vs TCU, @ Ohio State, vs Wisconsin
So there it is. A lot of toss-up games this early in the season (not surprisingly) shows a lot of opportunity available for this team this year.
How did it end up at the conclusion of last year? Not terribly. It retroactively predicted a win against Illinois (we lost) and retroactively predicted a loss against Nebraska (we won). How did it do at the beginning of the season? Worse, predicting losses against Michigan, Iowa and Nebraska and a win against the Fighting Illini.
So all that said, the key thing to keep in mind is that these numbers are strictly for entertainment purposes only, and particularly at the beginning of the season, they may be pretty far off. The formula is taking a lot of last year into account as Mr. Sagarin ranks teams, and as we all know, college football changes a lot from year-to-year.
Still, enjoy these, debate over them, and relish the fact that we're just two and a half weeks away from kicking off the season under the lights at TCF.
Without further ado ...
vs TCU (+13.5)
@ Colorado State (-5.5)
vs Kent State (-23)
vs Ohio (-19)
@ Northwestern (-0.5)
@ Purdue (-8.5)
vs Nebraska (+3)
vs Michigan (-1)
@ Ohio State (+17)
@ Iowa (+3)
vs Illinois (-10)
vs Wisconsin (+8.5)
Predicted Record 7-5 (4-4)
Likely wins (>6 point difference in favor of Minnesota): vs Kent State, vs Ohio, @ Purdue, vs Illinois
Likely toss-ups (within 6 points): @ Colorado State, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska, vs Michigan, @ Iowa
Likely losses (>6 point difference in favor of opponent): vs TCU, @ Ohio State, vs Wisconsin
So there it is. A lot of toss-up games this early in the season (not surprisingly) shows a lot of opportunity available for this team this year.