Sagarin Predictions: Week 9

[Gopher07]

What a difference a week makes. On the outside looking in with just one close win on the horizon, following the Purdue shellacking we now have one "good chance to win" - @ Illinois has turned into a 9-point predicted spread in favor of the Gophers. The Illini are by far the worst B1G team, with a predictor score actually less than New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, the Michigan line comes back down following their loss but we're still a long-shot, and Michigan State flirts with that 6-point margin. A loss for Sparty to either Northwestern or Nebraska, and a win for the Gophers over Illinois, could push that to a very close line for the season ender.

This week was the first time the directionality of the prediction was incorrect (going in it has Purdue -3). Finally scored a statistical upset!

Week eight can be found here: http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showthread.php?41040-Sagarin-Predictions-Week-8

Sagarin's ratings can be found here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

I take [home team rating + 3.25 (home field advantage)] - [away team rating] to show spreads.

Minnesota, #69, 69.30 PREDICTOR rating. Results/predicted lines in parentheses.

@ UNLV (W, 30-27)
vs UNH (W, 44-7)
vs Western Michigan (W, 28-23)
vs Syracuse (W, 17-10)
@ Iowa (L, 31-13)
vs Northwestern (L, 21-13)
@ Wisconsin (L, 38-13)
vs Purdue (W, 44-28)
vs Michigan (+9.5)
@ Illinois (-9)
@ Nebraska (+15)
vs Michigan State (+5.5)

Final record: 6-6 (2-6).

Good chance to win (>6 spread favoring Gophers): @Illinois
Close wins (0-6 spread favoring Gophers):
Toss up (Pick 'em):
Close losses (0-6 spread favoring opponent): Michigan State
Good chance to lose (>6 spread favoring opponent): Michigan, @Nebraska

 

[Atl Gopher]

What a difference a week makes. On the outside looking in with just one close win on the horizon, following the Purdue shellacking we now have one "good chance to win" - @ Illinois has turned into a 9-point predicted spread in favor of the Gophers. The Illini are by far the worst B1G team, with a predictor score actually less than New Hampshire.

I am sure Sagarin has a computer that does stuff for him, but can someone explain how Syracuseis #60, Purdue 61 and the Gophers 69?

60 Syracuse A = 71.34 4 4 70.06( 50) 0 0 | 0 1 | 69.15 69 | 71.53 60
College Football 2012 through games of October 27 Saturday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.02] [ 2.98] [ 3.25]
61 Purdue A = 71.27 3 5 71.79( 36) 0 1 | 0 3 | 68.19 71 | 71.65 58
69 Minnesota A = 69.82 5 3 67.81( 64) 0 0 | 0 0 | 71.36 60 | 69.30 70

 

[Costa Rican Gopher]

What a difference a week makes. On the outside looking in with just one close win on the horizon, following the Purdue shellacking we now have one "good chance to win" - @ Illinois has turned into a 9-point predicted spread in favor of the Gophers. The Illini are by far the worst B1G team, with a predictor score actually less than New Hampshire.

I am sure Sagarin has a computer that does stuff for him, but can someone explain how Syracuseis #60, Purdue 61 and the Gophers 69?

60 Syracuse A = 71.34 4 4 70.06( 50) 0 0 | 0 1 | 69.15 69 | 71.53 60
College Football 2012 through games of October 27 Saturday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.02] [ 2.98] [ 3.25]
61 Purdue A = 71.27 3 5 71.79( 36) 0 1 | 0 3 | 68.19 71 | 71.65 58
69 Minnesota A = 69.82 5 3 67.81( 64) 0 0 | 0 0 | 71.36 60 | 69.30 70

Sagarin's ratings are fun to analyze & discuss, especially for stats guys or novice gamblers, but I sometimes see/hear people referencing them as if they're meaningful, which they're not. Just understand they're for novelty purposes & will not consistently predict anything. To put it in perspective, they're given away free in the USA Today.