Sagarin Predictions: Week 7

[Gopher07]

Hooray for wins! The big win over Purdue has things looking on the up and up for the Gophers, at least as far as bowl eligibility goes.

That said, the schedule gets extremely difficult after the Nebraska game. In our last five games, we play #3 Michigan, #14 Ohio State, #22 Wisconsin and #26 Iowa.

If the Gophers want to go bowling this year, dare I say they have to find a way to win this weekend against Nebraska. Upsetting one of the four teams above is certainly possible (looking at that Wisconsin game in particular) but upsetting two is going to be extremely tough.

Of course, things will continue to change throughout the year and it's never set in stone, but so far the Sagarin numbers have been correct in calling the wins and losses this season. This weekend is the first time since Colorado State that the Gophers are in a true (by the numbers) toss-up game and we know how that one went.

I'm using three lines this year - the GOLDEN_MEAN spreads, the PREDICTOR spreads, and the RECENT spreads, found here.

Last week's post can be found here.

vs #4 TCU L
@ #101 Colorado State W
vs #144 Kent State W
vs #72 Ohio W
@ #29 Northwestern L
@ #113 Purdue W
vs #51 Nebraska (-1, +4, -2)
vs #3 Michigan (+13.5, +21.5, +11)
@ #14 Ohio State (+18.5, +18, +18.5)
@ #26 Iowa (+13.5, +14.5, +12)
vs #55 Illinois (-3, +3, -6)
vs #22 Wisconsin (+6.5, +10.5, +6)

Predicted Record [based on an average of the three models] 5-7 (2-6)

Likely wins (>6 point difference [average] in favor of Minnesota): [none]
Likely toss-ups (within 6 points [average]): vs Nebraska, vs Illinois
Likely losses (>6 point difference [average] in favor of opponent): vs Michigan, @ Ohio State, @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin

 

[Hollinsanity]

Don't forget about the Illinois game, but overall I agree with you - huge game this week if we want to make a decent bowl game.


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[Great Plains Gopher]

Don't forget about the Illinois game, but overall I agree with you - huge game this week if we want to make a decent bowl game.


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Ditto that - this is a really big game and another sellout. To echo others, can't wait.

 

[cjbfbp]

huge game this week if we want to make a decent bowl game.


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huge game if we want to make any bowl game. Unless we pull an upset (or two), this game and Illinois are likely the only games we would be favored in the rest of the year.

 

[1983]

Those teams wont be the same teams they are today. Wisconsin and Iowa are suspect. Michigan is always a tough game and its for the Jug. We are not afraid of Michigan. Osu might be running out of gas.

 

[BroncoRedux]

I like the way you think

 

[Hollinsanity]

huge game if we want to make any bowl game. Unless we pull an upset (or two), this game and Illinois are likely the only games we would be favored in the rest of the year.

I agree with this sentiment, although I'm not as scared of Wisconsin at home as many posters here.

What I was trying convey as concisely as possible when I said "decent bowl game" is that if we don't win this week 6-6 is more than likely the ceiling, which would put us in a mediocre bowl game.

Sure, the Gophers could win 2/4 games vs Mich/tOSU/Iowa/Wisconsin - but I'd say that's somewhat unlikely.


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[Gopher07]

I'll give you Wisconsin looking suspect, Iowa hasn't done anything to say they're a worse team than we are this season (though this weekend will tell a lot), Michigan is in the midst of one of the best streaks of defensive play for any team in any conference in the past several decades, and Ohio State is Ohio State, the defending national champs that haven't lost a regular-season conference game since 2011.

We can and will go out and compete in all of the games but I don't think it's unreasonable to foresee probable losses in at least three of those four games.

 

[homermn]

I'm not buying into the Iowa has the West all wrapped up club. They had a good defensive stand against Wisconsin, that was a good win. But, who else have they really played, they essentially played3 FCS games while Illinois gave them a run until a bad fumble at the end. if we can get some guys healthy by the 14th and these freshman continue to build experience, it's going to be an exciting game.

Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin. I see no reason this team can't grow up to beat them.
Michigan, Ohio St. - Both teams have the depth and talent to grind out wins no matter at what level they play. I'm hoping for a blizzard on Halloween.

No matter what I think this season is going to be stressful as hell, but I haven't given into the 5-6 win mentality.