Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
- 9,008
- Reaction score
- 15
- Points
- 38
No huge shifts in the formula as the Gophers were off this week. Probably the biggest change week over week involved Nebraska shifting further in our favor ... and there's a better-than-zero chance the Huskers are winless when we go to Lincoln. Smells like a trap game, if we can have such a thing. We also inched the spread slightly higher against Indiana and slightly lower against Purdue and Northwestern, but nothing notable.
This weekend is our first "likely loss" game of the year. As far as I can tell and remember, the last time we won a "likely loss" game was against Nebraska in 2014. Hopefully the week off gave the team a chance to get things right after Maryland and put in a few wrinkles to get the offense going against a really tough Iowa defense. Looking forward to the battle for Floyd on Saturday!
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.
vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa +9
at Ohio State +28
at Nebraska -4
vs Indiana -4
at Illinois -8
vs Purdue -2.5
vs Northwestern -1.5
at Wisconsin +17.5
Final record: 8-4 (5-4)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Nebraska, vs Indiana, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin
NEW FEATURE!
Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I have also included some likely destinations for teams should they finish as predicted. Because of the Wisconsin loss to BYU, I'd say Iowa has the best shot to make the NY6 from the B1G West in the below standings. If the Badgers win the West at 7-2, they'd likely head into bowl season at 10-4 after a conference title game loss, while the Hawkeyes would be sitting at 10-2.
From the East, Ohio State seems to be an odds-on-favorite to make the CFP at 14-0, while Penn State looks good to make the NY6. Michigan is next in line but making the NY6 might be difficult if they lose to Ohio State and Penn State in addition to ND.
B1G West
Wisconsin: 7-2
Iowa: 7-2 - maybe NY6
Minnesota: 5-4
Northwestern: 4-5
Purdue: 2-7
Illinois: 1-8
Nebraska: 1-8
B1G East
Ohio St: 9-0 - likely CFP
Penn St: 8-1 - maybe CFP / likely NY6
Michigan: 7-2 - maybe NY6
Michigan St: 6-3
Maryland: 4-5
Indiana: 2-7
Rutgers: 0-9
Crossover Games
West: 6-15
East: 15-6
Interesting B1G Notes
- Wisconsin has 1 toss up left. Notable games: +4 @ Mich, +8 @ PSU, -11 @ NW, -12 @ Purdue.
- Iowa has 0 toss ups. Notable games: +11 @ PSU, -9 @ Purdue, -9 @ Minn.
- Ohio St has 0 toss ups. Notable games: -12 vs Mich, -14.5 @ MSU.
- Rutgers is +6 vs Illinois this week. After that, closest games are +18.5 vs NW, +25.5 @ MD, +31 @ MSU…
- Minn and NW are projected very similar - go 1-2 in crossovers and beat the same teams in the West. The difference is the Minn vs NW game which we are projected to win with homefield advantage.
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
This weekend is our first "likely loss" game of the year. As far as I can tell and remember, the last time we won a "likely loss" game was against Nebraska in 2014. Hopefully the week off gave the team a chance to get things right after Maryland and put in a few wrinkles to get the offense going against a really tough Iowa defense. Looking forward to the battle for Floyd on Saturday!
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.
vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa +9
at Ohio State +28
at Nebraska -4
vs Indiana -4
at Illinois -8
vs Purdue -2.5
vs Northwestern -1.5
at Wisconsin +17.5
Final record: 8-4 (5-4)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Nebraska, vs Indiana, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin
NEW FEATURE!
Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I have also included some likely destinations for teams should they finish as predicted. Because of the Wisconsin loss to BYU, I'd say Iowa has the best shot to make the NY6 from the B1G West in the below standings. If the Badgers win the West at 7-2, they'd likely head into bowl season at 10-4 after a conference title game loss, while the Hawkeyes would be sitting at 10-2.
From the East, Ohio State seems to be an odds-on-favorite to make the CFP at 14-0, while Penn State looks good to make the NY6. Michigan is next in line but making the NY6 might be difficult if they lose to Ohio State and Penn State in addition to ND.
B1G West
Wisconsin: 7-2
Iowa: 7-2 - maybe NY6
Minnesota: 5-4
Northwestern: 4-5
Purdue: 2-7
Illinois: 1-8
Nebraska: 1-8
B1G East
Ohio St: 9-0 - likely CFP
Penn St: 8-1 - maybe CFP / likely NY6
Michigan: 7-2 - maybe NY6
Michigan St: 6-3
Maryland: 4-5
Indiana: 2-7
Rutgers: 0-9
Crossover Games
West: 6-15
East: 15-6
Interesting B1G Notes
- Wisconsin has 1 toss up left. Notable games: +4 @ Mich, +8 @ PSU, -11 @ NW, -12 @ Purdue.
- Iowa has 0 toss ups. Notable games: +11 @ PSU, -9 @ Purdue, -9 @ Minn.
- Ohio St has 0 toss ups. Notable games: -12 vs Mich, -14.5 @ MSU.
- Rutgers is +6 vs Illinois this week. After that, closest games are +18.5 vs NW, +25.5 @ MD, +31 @ MSU…
- Minn and NW are projected very similar - go 1-2 in crossovers and beat the same teams in the West. The difference is the Minn vs NW game which we are projected to win with homefield advantage.
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5