Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
- 9,008
- Reaction score
- 15
- Points
- 38
That sound you heard was the Gopher train screeching to a halt. With a 42-14 beatdown at the hands of Maryland, the Gophers now stand at 1-1 in toss-up games for the year. Of course, it was a big margin of defeat and that shows up in the numbers to a point. Games that looks to be trending in the Gophers' favor have swung the other way - especially Purdue, which closed the gap significantly after their first win of the year over Boston College.
But, those opponents haven't completely left Minnesota in the dust. There are still five toss-up games left on the schedule, and the Gophers are favorites in all five. If Minnesota can manage to win three of those five, there will be a bowl game at the end of the rainbow.
Losing Winfield hurts but the bye came at a great time for this team to get their heads right and re-energize for homecoming. Looking forward to seeing what the numbers do between now and then.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.
vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa +8.5
at Ohio State +28.5
at Nebraska -2.5
vs Indiana -2
at Illinois -7.5
vs Purdue -4
vs Northwestern -2.5
at Wisconsin +18.5
Final record: 8-4 (5-4)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Nebraska, vs Indiana, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin
NEW FEATURE!
Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula.
B1G West
Iowa: 7-2
Wisconsin: 7-2
Minnesota: 5-4
Northwestern: 4-5
Purude: 2-7
Illinois: 1-8
Nebraska: 1-8
B1G East
Ohio St: 9-0
Penn St: 8-1
Michigan: 7-2
Michigan St: 6-3
Maryland: 3.5-5.5 (@ IU is a PICK)
Indiana: 2.5-6.5 (vs MD is a PICK)
Rutgers: 0-9
Crossover Games
West: 6-15
East: 15-6
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
But, those opponents haven't completely left Minnesota in the dust. There are still five toss-up games left on the schedule, and the Gophers are favorites in all five. If Minnesota can manage to win three of those five, there will be a bowl game at the end of the rainbow.
Losing Winfield hurts but the bye came at a great time for this team to get their heads right and re-energize for homecoming. Looking forward to seeing what the numbers do between now and then.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.
vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa +8.5
at Ohio State +28.5
at Nebraska -2.5
vs Indiana -2
at Illinois -7.5
vs Purdue -4
vs Northwestern -2.5
at Wisconsin +18.5
Final record: 8-4 (5-4)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Nebraska, vs Indiana, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin
NEW FEATURE!
Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula.
B1G West
Iowa: 7-2
Wisconsin: 7-2
Minnesota: 5-4
Northwestern: 4-5
Purude: 2-7
Illinois: 1-8
Nebraska: 1-8
B1G East
Ohio St: 9-0
Penn St: 8-1
Michigan: 7-2
Michigan St: 6-3
Maryland: 3.5-5.5 (@ IU is a PICK)
Indiana: 2.5-6.5 (vs MD is a PICK)
Rutgers: 0-9
Crossover Games
West: 6-15
East: 15-6
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4