Sagarin Predictions: Week 5

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SonOfTheVarsity said:
Here's the Gophers total yards/game during non-con in the last 3 seasons:

2013: 387.5 yds/game
2014: 336 yds/game
2015: 377.5 yds/game

The last 2 games alone, we've averaged 378 yds/game. And I'll say that this year's non-con schedule is undoubtedly the toughest of the 3 years.

Do you see any reason why this year's offense won't cut it in the B1G and will doom us to a 1-win B1G season, but last year's got us 5 wins, and the year before that got us 4?

I'm not a huge fan of this offense (look at my posts last week), but this argument is pretty weak.

Now I'll discontinue my "deep, professional analysis" that took 2 minutes.
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GophersInIowa said:
Believe it or not, those things happen with everyone. Our defense has dropped several interceptions this year as well.



I get the Kent St game, but Ohio was a completely different performance. Our offense averaged over 58 yards per drive and 6.9 yards per play on Saturday. That is very good. That kind of performance absolutely will cut it in the B1G.
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You can make numbers say whatever you'd like them to say.
 

'13Gopher said:
You can make numbers say whatever you'd like them to say.
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Would appreciate if you would post numbers that say something entirely different.

You will have to admit, past years' OOC games made the season prospects look pretty bleak. Kill & Co. made the necessary adjustments and personnel changes to make turn things around.
 

Rescooter said:
Would appreciate if you would post numbers that say something entirely different.

You will have to admit, past years' OOC games made the season prospects look pretty bleak. Kill & Co. made the necessary adjustments and personnel changes to make turn things around.
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Avg. points scored Avg. points allowed
2014 27 17
2015 20.75 20.25

We score a TD less per game and give up 3 more points per game. How's that?
 

'13Gopher said:
You can make numbers say whatever you'd like them to say.
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I didn't make the numbers say anything. Those are the actual numbers. How would you determine offensive efficiency? If our average starting position was the 50 yard line, we had 12 offensive possessions and scored 40 points, would that really mean the offense played better?
 

'13Gopher said:
Avg. points scored Avg. points allowed
2014 27 17
2015 20.75 20.25

We score a TD less per game and give up 3 more points per game. How's that?
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2 defensive TDs last year. So, offense scored 23.5/game last year; 20.75/game this year.

Last year, defense forced 13 turnovers in non-con. This year, 6. A difference in almost 2 turnovers a game affects the offensive production.

Also, again, this year's non-con schedule was MUCH more difficult than last year's.
 









vagopher said:
I think he might be a certain Iowa fan whose name cannot be mentioned.
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Yes! I am looking forward to the day when a person types Sonny Garcia and it come back as ***** ******.:clap:
 

sonnygarcia said:
Remember when the blind homers on the board were ripping Vegas's 5.5 wins and predicting 8-10. I'm sure they all still want to extend Kill another 5 years, so we can battle to make bowl games and watch us slug it out with the likes of Kent St and Ohio. This is what we get for the next however many years, status quo for Gopher football, but I just have to giggle at the Jerry Kill kool-aid everyone drinks around here. He'll continue to benefit from a bad BIG West and we'll all still love him for 6-7 wins a year, I'm sure.
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I predicted 4-6 wins and that was before Michigan's rise. Offense has been a problem here for five years. Maybe the younger recruits will make a difference next year.
 

sonnygarcia said:
Remember when the blind homers on the board were ripping Vegas's 5.5 wins and predicting 8-10. I'm sure they all still want to extend Kill another 5 years, so we can battle to make bowl games and watch us slug it out with the likes of Kent St and Ohio. This is what we get for the next however many years, status quo for Gopher football, but I just have to giggle at the Jerry Kill kool-aid everyone drinks around here. He'll continue to benefit from a bad BIG West and we'll all still love him for 6-7 wins a year, I'm sure.
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Glad to see you're coming around! Better to drink the kool-aid than that poison you've been dishing out all year. By the way, Sonny, you realize this is just predictions, right? We're still going to go ahead and play the games to see who actually wins.
 



Im pretty confident we will gut out 4-5 wins in the conference with none of them by more than a touchdown.
 

In terms of our won-loss record, I think we are exactly where most everyone thought we would be at the end of our non-conference schedule: 3-1. What has been troublesome is how much we have had to struggle to achieve those wins, creating concerns over how well we will do from here on out. I think much depends on how healthy we are. Our offense has been hampered by injuries especially on the line, and injuries have begun to impact adversely what has been a very strong defense. Yes, there have been other issues as well, such a QB play and play calling, but QB play has been improving, and I expect to see improvement in play calling as well. I for one am hopeful that, as happened last year, things will come together soon. But even if they do not, I see no reason to embrace the kind of unrelenting pessimism of sonnygarcia. Kill and his staff, as we all know, have an impressive record of building programs, including taking Northern Illinois, a mid-major program, to top 25 status. Thus far he has followed a similar pattern here, and the annual improvement in our recruiting classes, I submit, bodes well for our future. I, in fact, fully expect Kill and company to restore the Gophers to the elite levels that we once enjoyed, and I absolutely detest the posts of those who contend that the Gophers will never achieve more than mediocrity. For most of the first half of Gopher Football history, we were an elite program, and I see no reason why we can’t do it again. It’s matter of commitment. Our years of mediocrity, in my opinion, relate directly to a conscious decision made in the late 60s to de-emphasis the football program, and it’s only recently that we have seen a change in that attitude. With new facilities and continued on field improvement the future should be bright and we should embrace it; not look for every opportunity to pour cold water on it.
 

Here's the thing, right now we are only favored, slightly in 3 of our last 8 games. Most of you are barking out like Foghorn Leghorn... I I I told ya so boy, I say the Gophers, they just aint that good, the football team that is.... Because Sagarin says so, well I say poppy cock! If the Gophers go to Evanston and come away with a win, then we become favorites in a couple more games. The point is that it is still way to early to predict where Minnesota finishes in the West. I think the Gophers worst case scenario is 4-4 with an upside of 6-2. Did ya'll watch Northwestern beat Ball State? Please, we can play with Northwestern, this game is decided by less than 4 points, unless we go all Iowa on them. Go Gophers!
 

People seem to throw out a 6 win conference prediction like it's no big deal. We have done that exactly 5 times in the history of our program...with the last time being in the 1970s. Let's put things into perspective, and just be happy we aren't Purdon't.
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
I predicted 4-6 wins and that was before Michigan's rise. Offense has been a problem here for five years. Maybe the younger recruits will make a difference next year.
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You predicted 4-6 wins because you're among the most ardent pessimists who post here.
 

I think people just have to enjoy every win we can get and hopefully we get enough at the end of the year to go to a bowl game. Fans of this team that are expecting 10-12 wins will be greatly disappointed and fans that are saying, "Oh but it's just Ohio or Kent St. - big deal" will never be able to enjoy this team. As a Gopher fan, I have I have witnessed more gut-wrenching and heart breaking losses maybe than any other fanbase over the years. I have seen 30 point leads evaporate, blocked punts, blocked field goal returned for a TD with no time remaining, referees make horrific calls costing the game, timekeepers who fell asleep allowing the other team to score and win and more Hail Mary passes to lose the game in the final seconds.

Us Gopher fans have seen just about every possible bad thing that can possibly happen to a football team happen and have kept coming back!! The only way you can do this is to just enjoy every win you get realizing it sure beats the alternative. All three of these victories were games I have seen them lose in the past but somehow we are finding a way to win. Not sure how many more we have in the tanks here, but I will keep supporting the boys and I will appreciate every one we get!!!
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
Here's the thing, right now we are only favored, slightly in 3 of our last 8 games. Most of you are barking out like Foghorn Leghorn... I I I told ya so boy, I say the Gophers, they just aint that good, the football team that is.... Because Sagarin says so, well I say poppy cock! If the Gophers go to Evanston and come away with a win, then we become favorites in a couple more games. The point is that it is still way to early to predict where Minnesota finishes in the West. I think the Gophers worst case scenario is 4-4 with an upside of 6-2. Did ya'll watch Northwestern beat Ball State? Please, we can play with Northwestern, this game is decided by less than 4 points, unless we go all Iowa on them. Go Gophers!
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Not great to throw stones when we beat Ohio and Kent State by 3 points each.

I'm thinking 4-4 or 5-3 this year in the Big Ten, which given our crossover games is nothing to be ashamed of.
 

The Lorax said:
Not great to throw stones when we beat Ohio and Kent State by 3 points each.

I'm thinking 4-4 or 5-3 this year in the Big Ten, which given our crossover games is nothing to be ashamed of.
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I think that is his point. We can play with NW.
 


Hey Gophers--

It's been a few weeks since I checked in. From a distance, I've noticed the Gophers and Frogs have had similar fates since we traveled up North––very close/scary games, but all Ws. The units that were expected to do well have (TCU's O and Minn's D), and the preseason concerns (TCU's D and Minn's O) are, well....even bigger concerns.

Pulling for the Gophers in Evanston this weekend (and all season). Your defense is excellent and will keep it close. Hoping Leidner has a big day and you guys can get the big W.

Good luck!

p.s.---wtf, Michigan, you were supposed to suck this year?!
 

sonnygarcia said:
Remember when the blind homers on the board were ripping Vegas's 5.5 wins and predicting 8-10. I'm sure they all still want to extend Kill another 5 years, so we can battle to make bowl games and watch us slug it out with the likes of Kent St and Ohio. This is what we get for the next however many years, status quo for Gopher football, but I just have to giggle at the Jerry Kill kool-aid everyone drinks around here. He'll continue to benefit from a bad BIG West and we'll all still love him for 6-7 wins a year, I'm sure.
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Ya, because there are so many really good coaches that want to come here. So many people that would work as hard to get the facilities upgraded by over 100 million dollars. Easy to criticize, but what would you like to see in your dream world Sonny?


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"All three of these victories were games I have seen them lose in the past but somehow we are finding a way to win."


Amen!



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