Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
- 9,008
- Reaction score
- 15
- Points
- 38
A new high-water mark for the season after the Gophers take care of business and several of our conference opponents didn't. Though we have four "toss-up" games on the schedule, the formula has us favored in all four, starting this Saturday in College Park. A win there and Iowa might creep into toss-up territory by the time we play them. A dominating win on the road and I don't think it's out of the question to start feeling like 7 wins is the floor for this team. But lots still to come and even though the Terps looked positively bad on Saturday, it's our closest game in terms of predicted spread the rest of the way and should tell us a lot about what to expect in the conference season.
One interesting note, Indiana is looking tougher and tougher by the week and keeps creeping up - now out of "likely W" to "toss up." Though I expect they'll crash back to earth from a win/loss perspective before we play them (they get MSU, OSU, Iowa, and PSU before then) they could be a sneaky-good team that may give us fits after our tough two-game road trip.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.
vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland -1.5
vs Iowa +7
at Ohio State +26
at Nebraska -2.5
vs Indiana -5.5
at Illinois -10
vs Purdue -11
vs Northwestern -6.5
at Wisconsin +12.5
Final record: 9-3 (6-3)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Maryland, @ Nebraska, vs Indiana, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin
NEW FEATURE!
Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I'll be including these in my posts going forward.
B1G West
Iowa: 8-1
Minnesota: 6-3
Wisconsin: 6-3
Northwestern: 4-5
Nebraska: 2-7
Illinois: 1-8
Purdue: 1-8
B1G East
Ohio St: 9-0
Penn St: 8-1
Michigan: 7-2
Michigan St: 6-3
Indiana: 3-6
Maryland: 2-7
Rutgers: 0-9
Crossover Games
West: 7-14
East: 14-7
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
One interesting note, Indiana is looking tougher and tougher by the week and keeps creeping up - now out of "likely W" to "toss up." Though I expect they'll crash back to earth from a win/loss perspective before we play them (they get MSU, OSU, Iowa, and PSU before then) they could be a sneaky-good team that may give us fits after our tough two-game road trip.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.
vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland -1.5
vs Iowa +7
at Ohio State +26
at Nebraska -2.5
vs Indiana -5.5
at Illinois -10
vs Purdue -11
vs Northwestern -6.5
at Wisconsin +12.5
Final record: 9-3 (6-3)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Maryland, @ Nebraska, vs Indiana, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin
NEW FEATURE!
Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I'll be including these in my posts going forward.
B1G West
Iowa: 8-1
Minnesota: 6-3
Wisconsin: 6-3
Northwestern: 4-5
Nebraska: 2-7
Illinois: 1-8
Purdue: 1-8
B1G East
Ohio St: 9-0
Penn St: 8-1
Michigan: 7-2
Michigan St: 6-3
Indiana: 3-6
Maryland: 2-7
Rutgers: 0-9
Crossover Games
West: 7-14
East: 14-7
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
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