Sagarin Predictions: Week 3

[Gopher07]

While we're not favorites by the formula for the rest of the way, there are certainly some close matchups on the horizon. Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan and Illinois are all within a field goal or less and the game at Illinois is a pick 'em as of now. Only two games - Wisconsin and Nebraska - project to be touchdown or more losses at this point.

Week three can be found here: http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showthread.php?40134-Sagarin-Predictions-Week-3

Sagarin's ratings can be found here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

I take [home team rating + 2.42 (home field advantage)] - [away team rating] to show spreads.

Minnesota, #60, 71.96 PREDICTOR rating. Results/predicted lines in parentheses.

@ UNLV (W, 30-27)
vs UNH (W, 44-7)
vs Western Michigan (W, 28-23)
vs Syracuse (W, 17-10)
@ Iowa (+1.5)
vs Northwestern (+1.5)
@ Wisconsin (+8)
vs Purdue (+5.5)
vs Michigan (+3)
@ Illinois (Pick)
@ Nebraska (+14.5)
vs Michigan State (+4)

Final record: 4-8 (0-8)/5-7 (1-7).

Good chance to win (>6 spread favoring Gophers):
Close wins (0-6 spread favoring Gophers):
Toss up (Pick 'em): @Illinois
Close losses (0-6 spread favoring opponent): @Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State
Good chance to lose (>6 spread favoring opponent): @Wisconsin, @Nebraska

 

[Gopher07]

Oops, that should be titled Week 4. Oh well.

 

[Rescooter]

I can't remember: what was the Sagarin prediction for the Syracuse Game? I'm thinking we were Underdogs for that as well. If anything, it's a nice motivator.

 

[Gopher07]

I can't remember: what was the Sagarin prediction for the Syracuse Game? I'm thinking we were Underdogs for that as well. If anything, it's a nice motivator.

The numbers had us at -4.5 against the Orange. This Saturday will be the first game this year where the formula has us losing going in.

 

[Sparlimb]

What will change is our SOS will start getting a lot better as we go through the Big Ten season. Saturday will be an interesting game, with Iowa having a tough year so far and us having momentum. The kind of things the computer can't quantify. I think we either win big or lose if it is close.