Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
- 9,008
- Reaction score
- 15
- Points
- 38
Another week, another insane result for our Gophers. From losing by three scores as a double-digit favorite to winning by four scores as a double-digit underdog, the numbers just cannot figure out Minnesota this year. It's probably a symptom of youth and coaching change, as well as conference opponents that seem mostly mediocre (particularly the teams in the West .. a whole lot of "blah"). Very hard to figure out, but for now it would seem we have a dogfight on our hands this Saturday.
Northwestern are minor favorites at TCF, and so far this year we've split the toss up games - wins over Fresno and Indiana, losses at Maryland and Nebraska. The good news is, we've won the two home toss ups. The bad news is, when we lose toss ups, we've been hammered. Which one will it be on Saturday? One thing is for sure, a bowl game is a real possibility, and that's exciting. Senior day, bowl eligibility on the line ... if the team doesn't come out fired up I'm not sure what they're waiting for.
One other side note, it looks like the preseason predictions are trending toward correct again (for the third straight year). Before any games were played, the predicted record was 5-7 or 6-6.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.
vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa L (Predicted +9; Actual +17)
at Ohio State L (Predicted +26.5; Actual +16)
at Nebraska L (Predicted -4.5; Actual +25)
vs Indiana W (Predicted -3; Actual -7)
at Illinois L (Predicted -10.5; Actual +24)
vs Purdue W (Predicted +10; Actual -31)
vs Northwestern +3
at Wisconsin +11.5
Final record: 5-7 (2-7)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): None
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Wisconsin
Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I have also included some likely destinations for teams should they finish as predicted.
B1G West Predicted Standings
COMING
B1G East Predicted Standings
COMING
Crossover Games
COMING
Interesting Notes
COMING
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Northwestern are minor favorites at TCF, and so far this year we've split the toss up games - wins over Fresno and Indiana, losses at Maryland and Nebraska. The good news is, we've won the two home toss ups. The bad news is, when we lose toss ups, we've been hammered. Which one will it be on Saturday? One thing is for sure, a bowl game is a real possibility, and that's exciting. Senior day, bowl eligibility on the line ... if the team doesn't come out fired up I'm not sure what they're waiting for.
One other side note, it looks like the preseason predictions are trending toward correct again (for the third straight year). Before any games were played, the predicted record was 5-7 or 6-6.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.
vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa L (Predicted +9; Actual +17)
at Ohio State L (Predicted +26.5; Actual +16)
at Nebraska L (Predicted -4.5; Actual +25)
vs Indiana W (Predicted -3; Actual -7)
at Illinois L (Predicted -10.5; Actual +24)
vs Purdue W (Predicted +10; Actual -31)
vs Northwestern +3
at Wisconsin +11.5
Final record: 5-7 (2-7)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): None
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Wisconsin
Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I have also included some likely destinations for teams should they finish as predicted.
B1G West Predicted Standings
COMING
B1G East Predicted Standings
COMING
Crossover Games
COMING
Interesting Notes
COMING
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
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