Sagarin Predictions: Week 12

[Gopher07]

We comin' (ever so slightly)! But unfortunately, we're still looking like blowouts in our last two.

Hey, that's why they play the games.

I use RATING for the scores.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2013/team/

vs Wisconsin +14
@ Michigan State +14.5

Predicted Record 8-4 (4-4)

Likely toss-ups (within 6 points):
Likely losses (>6 point difference): vs Wisconsin, @ MSU

BYE WEEK EXTRA: How should the rest of the season play out? Looking at all the B1G teams, what do the numbers say about final standings (if this week's numbers held constant)?

Legends:
Michigan State 11-1 (8-0)
Nebraska 8-4 (5-3)
Minnesota 8-4 (4-4)
Iowa 7-5 (4-4)
Northwestern 6-6 (2-6)
Michigan 6-6 (2-6)

Leaders:
Ohio State 12-0 (8-0)
Wisconsin 10-2 (7-1)
Penn State 7-5 (4-4)
Indiana 5-7 (3-5)
Illinois 4-8 (1-7)
Purdue 1-11 (0-8)

Week 11 Prediction: http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showthread.php?50024-Sagarin-Predictions-Week-11

 

[diehard]

I don't mind seeing Sagarin turned upside down by playing the games. Thanks, interesting stuff. I hope Wisky and Sparty take us for granted.

We beat the BADgers and Sparty is a toss up in the real world of college football.

 

[Gopher07]

I don't mind seeing Sagarin turned upside down by playing the games. Thanks, interesting stuff. I hope Wisky and Sparty take us for granted.

We beat the BADgers and Sparty is a toss up in the real world of college football.

Certainly, beating Wisconsin would be big - and if Sparty loses to Nebraska next weekend, the season finale would probably be close to a toss-up in the computer-simulated world of Sagarin ratings as well (due to their drop and our gain).

 

[matt]

Nebraska 8-4 (5-3)
Minnesota 8-4 (4-4)
Iowa 7-5 (4-4)
Northwestern 6-6 (2-6)
Michigan 6-6 (2-6)

So here's what it comes down to - rank these teams in order of how attractive they would be to the bowls. Is a 7 win Iowa or 6 win Michigan more attractive than an 8 win Minnesota? Personally, I think the bowls would rank them as such:

1/2/3) Ohio St/Mich St/Wisconsin

4) Nebraska
5) Iowa
6) Minnesota
7) Michigan
8) Northwestern

That would put us in the Gator Bowl if the Big Ten gets 2 BCS bids and the Texas Bowl with only 1 bid. Obviously this will likely change as the games are played, but it's one possible scenario (and maybe the most likely one).

 

[upnorthkid]

We comin' (ever so slightly)! But unfortunately, we're still looking like blowouts in our last two.

Hey, that's why they play the games.

I use RATING for the scores.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2013/team/

vs Wisconsin +14
@ Michigan State +14.5

Predicted Record 8-4 (4-4)

Likely toss-ups (within 6 points):
Likely losses (>6 point difference): vs Wisconsin, @ MSU

BYE WEEK EXTRA: How should the rest of the season play out? Looking at all the B1G teams, what do the numbers say about final standings (if this week's numbers held constant)?

Legends:
Michigan State 11-1 (8-0)
Nebraska 8-4 (5-3)
Minnesota 8-4 (4-4)
Iowa 7-5 (4-4)
Northwestern 6-6 (2-6)
Michigan 6-6 (2-6)

Leaders:
Ohio State 12-0 (8-0)
Wisconsin 10-2 (7-1)
Penn State 7-5 (4-4)
Indiana 5-7 (3-5)
Illinois 4-8 (1-7)
Purdue 1-11 (0-8)

Week 11 Prediction: http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showthread.php?50024-Sagarin-Predictions-Week-11

i find it interesting that our projection vs. wisc got worse despite the upset and got better against msu despite them not playing at all. kind of weird

 

[upnorthkid]

Nebraska 8-4 (5-3)
Minnesota 8-4 (4-4)
Iowa 7-5 (4-4)
Northwestern 6-6 (2-6)
Michigan 6-6 (2-6)

So here's what it comes down to - rank these teams in order of how attractive they would be to the bowls. Is a 7 win Iowa or 6 win Michigan more attractive than an 8 win Minnesota? Personally, I think the bowls would rank them as such:

1/2/3) Ohio St/Mich St/Wisconsin

4) Nebraska
5) Iowa
6) Minnesota
7) Michigan
8) Northwestern

That would put us in the Gator Bowl if the Big Ten gets 2 BCS bids and the Texas Bowl with only 1 bid. Obviously this will likely change as the games are played, but it's one possible scenario (and maybe the most likely one).

i think i agree with your ranking. Iowa and us could easily flip but i think Mich is going to have major apathy towards their bowl and that will factor in. whoever we play in the bowl will be a test that a victory against will really help in recruiting.

 

[GopherHomer]

+14 against Wisconsin sounds about right. I really hope we can keep the game close to allow for something goofy to happen...I just don't like this match-up for us at all.