Sagarin Predictions: Week 10

[Gopher07]

Last week, Sagarin had us losing (but closer than the Vegas line). This week, same story. But, the future is looking a lot brighter!

I will be using RATING moving forward.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2013/team/

@ Indiana +6
vs Penn State -0.5
vs Wisconsin +11.5
@ Michigan State +15.5

Predicted Record 7-5 (3-5)

Likely toss-ups (within 6 points): @ Indiana, vs Penn State
Likely losses (>6 point difference): vs Wisconsin, @ MSU

Week nine prediction: http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showthread.php?49433-Sagarin-Predictions-Week-9

 

[Sparlimb]

Actually favored in a game. Nice. I still think we have a much better chance to beat Indiana then Penn St, but we will see my friends.

In the consolidated spread sheet we are #43 with 2 ratings systems that have us as #25. Penn St, Nebraska and Indiana are all rated below us...

Massey's Ranking Comparison

 

[book]

Penn State is not very good - Gophers by 2 TDs for that game.

 

[Sparlimb]

Penn State is not very good - Gophers by 2 TDs for that game.

Michigan would argue differently. They also are an "us against the world" kind of team, so it should be a real close game when we play them.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

Michigan would argue differently. They also are an "us against the world" kind of team, so it should be a real close game when we play them.

They are not a bad team, but have been pretty lousy on the road this year.

 

[MaxyJR1]

Michigan would argue differently. They also are an "us against the world" kind of team, so it should be a real close game when we play them.

OSU pretty much told them where to take the "us against world" thinking. They're rush defense is just a hair above Northwestern and Nebraska. Our Michigan game may have been a bit different (in score, not outcome) had Nelson been able to play.

 

[e.bigelow]

OSU pretty much told them where to take the "us against world" thinking. They're rush defense is just a hair above Northwestern and Nebraska. Our Michigan game may have been a bit different (in score, not outcome) had Nelson been able to play.

+1. My thoughts as well.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

OSU pretty much told them where to take the "us against world" thinking. They're rush defense is just a hair above Northwestern and Nebraska. Our Michigan game may have been a bit different (in score, not outcome) had Nelson been able to play.

I just hope we start the game with the hot hand (Nelson) this week and not forfeit the first quarter by putting in the other guy.

 

[Costa Rican Gopher]

Not trying to be a dick but Sagarin offers "ratings", not "predictions".

 

[Gopher07]

Not trying to be a dick but Sagarin offers "ratings", not "predictions".

Fair, but he does offer his ratings as a basis for predictions.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 79.

...

The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two somewhat different SCORE BASED methods, DIMIN_CURVE and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR), and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.

I just take the next step from his ratings, and calculate the predicted spread.