Road to Selection Sunday Part 3/3: Time for Gophers To Make More News On Ct than Off

[GopherHole Staff]

Road to Selection Sunday Part 3 of 3: It's Time for Gophers To Make More News On Court Than Off
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/189353?referrer_id=388419

DINKYTOWN, MN -- With the recent off-court developments surrounding first Trevor Mbakwe and then assistant coach Saul Smith, the start of the college basketball season can't come soon enough for the Gopher basketball program. And their fans, too.

The time has arrived for the Gophers to start making more news on the court than they do off it. The Gophers appear to have the goods to compete for a top-4 finish in the Big Ten Conference (provided there's no more court-blotter news), and the expectation here is 2012-13 should be the Gophers' best season since the 1997 "I-saw-it-but-it-didn't-happen" Big Ten championship/Final Four campaign.

No, I don't think this Gopher squad is "Final Four good"; I don't see a stone-cold, clutch assassin like Bobby Jackson on the roster. However, I have no problem saying this should be Tubby Smith's best team, one with the potential (a dangerous word, I know) to inflict damage in both the Big Ten (12-6/11-7ish) and the NCAA Tournament (a trip to the second weekend). That's the bar I'm putting in front of this year's Gopher squad, and I can't wait to find out if the Maroon & Gold can reach those heights. This team absolutely should not be flirting with the bubble -- a Gopher tradition seemingly passed down from Clem, to Dan, and now Tubby -- when Selection Sunday (March 17) rolls around.

So with another college basketball season on our front doorstep, we roll out Part 3 of Gopher Hole's 2012-13 Road to Selection Sunday debut. For the series finale we'll make a few predictions, as well as trot out our annual preseason "Field of 68" projection. To borrow the opening words from college basketball's anthem, One Shining Moment, "The ball is tipped. ..."

Puttin' On My Prognostication Cap
1. The Gophers will:
A. Finish 1-2 in the Bahamas;
B. Go 10-3 during nonconference play;
C. Finish 11-7 (5th or 6th) in the B1G;
D. Be 21-10 heading to Chicago for the B1G Tournament; and
E. Depending on how they finish at the BTT, be a #5, #6, or #7 seed for the NCAA Tournament.

2. Best non-BCS conference? The Atlantic 10, and it's not even close. With the addition of Butler and VCU, we might as well start calling the A-10 a power league.

3. Most likely non-BCS program to crack the Final Four? Gonzaga. This program is just too darn, consistently good. ... it's gonna' happen someday. Why not now?

4. Michigan State sophomore wing Branden Dawson will be a superstar much sooner rather than later.

5. Louisville and Duke will get most of the pre-Battle 4 Atlantis attention, but it'll be Mizzou cutting down the nets in the Bahamas.

6. On multiple occasions, Dick Vitale will cause me to consider throwing a tennis shoe at my television. In most instances it will involve his incestuous man-crush on Duke.

7. No offense to Christian Ponder (well done, young man), but I predict Samantha Steele will not make me forget Erin Andrews' absence from ESPN. I'll miss Doug Gottlieb's excellent though sometimes too brash analysis, too.

8. Though all three are capable, Rodney Williams -- not Andre Hollins or Trevor Mbakwe -- will be the Gopher most likely to garner the highest postseason conference honors (2nd-team All-B1G?).

9. The SEC, in addition to the Big Ten, will send more teams to the Sweet 16 than the Big East.

10. 1st-Team All B1G? Trey Burke (Michigan), Tim Frazier (Penn State), Cody Zeller (Indiana), Drew Crawford (Northwestern), Deshaun Thomas (Ohio State) -- Can't believe I just excluded Ohio State PG Aaron Craft -- my favorite non-Gopher in the Big Ten -- but I couldn't justify putting two players from a non-title winning squad on the 1st team. Now if the Buckeyes win the Big Ten regular season, that's another story.

11. B1G Coach of the Year? Fran McCaffery (Iowa). I'm willing to forgive Fran for his pathetic nonconference schedule.

12. B1G Newcomer of the Year? Gary Harris (Michigan State). He already reminds me of former Spartan guard Charlie Bell, and he wears the same number (#14).

13. B1G Player of the Year? Cody Zeller (Indiana). And something tells me he'll stick around at least for 2013-14.

14. Seven is the more likely number, but don't be shocked if the Big Ten nabs an all-time (conference) best 8 NCAA tourney bids.

15. One-bid league most likely to make a splash in the NCAA Tournament? Let's go with the Patriot League, which boasts Bucknell and Lehigh as potential bracket busters.

16. Coach most likely to get fired? Jeff Bzdelik (Wake Forest). His two years in Winston-Salem have been nothing short of a a disaster, including a 5-27 ACC mark.

17. The Final Four and a national champion? Indiana, Louisville, Michigan State, and Missouri -- Not since Sparty in 2000 has the B1G won a national championship, but that streak finally ends in Atlanta. Tom "The Pacing & Clapping Maniac" Crean brings IU all the way back to its glory days, and for good measure Crean might defeat his mentor (Tom Izzo) along the way. Note, last year I had two of the Final Four correct (Kansas & Ohio State), but missed on the other two semifinalists (Elite 8 squads North Carolina & Syracuse) and the national champ (North Carolina).

We conclude our 2012-13 RTSS debut with a NCAA Tournament "Field of 68" projection. Last year we pegged 40 of 68 (58.8%) correctly.

"FIELD OF 68" PROJECTION (Nov. 2, 2012)
America East (1): Stony Brook

ACC (5): Duke, Florida State, Miami-Florida, North Carolina, NC State

Atlantic Sun (1): Mercer

Atlantic 10 (4): Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis, Temple, VCU

Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, USF

Big Sky (1): Montana

Big South (1): Coastal Carolina

B1G (7): Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Big 12 (6): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, West Virginia

Big West (1): Fullerton State

Colonial (1): Drexel

Conference USA (2): Marshall, Memphis

Horizon (1): Green Bay

Ivy (1): Penn

Metro Atlantic (1): Iona

MAC (1): Ohio

MEAC (1): Savannah State

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Illinois State

Mountain West (4): Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast (1): Long Island

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State

Pac 12 (4): Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, UCLA

Patriot (1): Bucknell

SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Southern (1): Davidson

Southland (1): Oral Roberts

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M

Summit (1): South Dakota State

Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

WAC (1): Denver
____________________
Non-BCS At-Larges (9): Colorado State, Illinois State, Marshall, New Mexico, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, Temple, VCU.

Last 4 In (see ya' in Dayton): Colorado, Marshall, New Mexico, Ole Miss.

First Four Automatic Qualifiers (also Dayton-bound): Coastal Carolina, Mercer, Prairie View A&M, Stony Brook.

First 4 Out: Butler, Cincinnati, Illinois, UMass.

Others Considered: Alabama, BYU Cal, Drake, LaSalle, Lehigh, Maryland, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Oregon, Southern Miss, Virginia.

 

[BleedGopher]

Great stuff Hodger, I really enjoyed your series of columns this week.

I have the exact same prediction for the season:

10-3 in non-conference
11-7 in BT play
Go 1-1 in BT Tourney
6th seed in NCAA Tourney

Go Gophers!!

 

[SelectionSunday]

Thanks Bleed. Great minds think alike.

I wouldn't even be opposed to upping those marks (11-2 pre-Big Ten, 12-6 BT) a smidge.

 

[scools12]

Good stuff SS. I feel as though we have heard this all before though. Until the season goes without any further off court issues and they at least protect home court during the conference season I remain skeptical they can keep themselves off the bubble.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Until the season goes without any further off court issues and they at least protect home court during the conference season I remain skeptical they can keep themselves off the bubble.

Valid point. That is our history (the bubble), yes.

No time like the present to change all that, starting (most significantly) with the conference opener. Again, it will tell us a lot. If the Gophers are truly better, we set the tone and beat Michigan State at The Barn. Don't care how good Sparty is, it's at Williams Arena. Last season we had a chance to set a good B1G tone in Champaign-Urbana and let it slip away. We know the rest of the story. Never recovered.

 

[Dr.Don]

I hate the history of being on "The Bubble".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvuOtlpSAeY

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

My expectations for this year are to find our way into the field of 32 (I don't want to say just win a tournament game, because I would not be happy if we beat a mediocre team in one of the play in games but didn't survive until the field of 32), an above .500 B1G season, a trip to the B1G semifinals, and at least a split with Wisconsin. I like your optimism though SS, hope you are right about top 4 and finding our way into that second weekend.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Living to play another day would be a start. That would be very cool. It's been awhile for the Gophers (15, going on 16 seasons).

Would be nice to be part of the Madness for more than 2 hours like was the case in '99, '05, '09, and '10, for sure.

 

[dpodoll68]

It's been awhile for the Gophers (15, going on 16 seasons).

It's actually been 22, going on 23 seasons.

 

[SelectionSunday]

It's actually been 22, going on 23 seasons.

I did that strictly for your entertainment, dp. Really.

 

[dpodoll68]

I did that strictly for your entertainment, dp. Really.

You rascal, you.

 

[tmvander]

I really hope that the 10-3 non conference record will hold.

There is an outside shot that we could play 4 ranked teams (depending on where you find the rankings) within a week. Duke#8, Memphis#16, Missouri #15 or Louisville #2, Florida State #25. None of these games are at home. Two other games cannot be overlooked as well. Home vs South Dakota State, and @ USC. The Gophers should stomp both, but they are two others to pay attention to.

However, I do like to intensify games to peak the interest of my wife so I can control the TV and avoid watching Kardashians

 

[fan of Ray Williams]

Thanks for the series SS. It's obvious you put a good deal of time and effort into it. My hope is that the club improves over the course of the year. Seems Tubby's squads, for one reason or another, fail to to do this. (I'm somewhat discounting the NIT run from last year, which I really enjoyed.) A sweep of the Badgers would do my heart well also. Let's stay injury free and drama free and good things will happen.

 

[OSUfan]

SS, you have done a great job obviously. You deserve a lot of credit for picking Kansas in the preseason last year, as that was a pick that turned out perfect even though at times it did not look good for them, and it looked doubtful at the beginning of the year.

Everyone expects Indiana and Louisville to make the F4, but both teams had some weak areas last year (Louisville offense, IU defense) that could rear their ugly head this season. Missouri has a higher likelihood to make it than Michigan State, but I don't think Missouri will make it. For a wild guess, I'll go with Indiana, Louisville, NC State and Arizona.

 

[SelectionSunday]

This weekend

Can't wait for it to get started this weekend. Am especially intrigued by the South Dakota State-Alabama game on Friday (8 p.m. ESPNU). A chance for Jackrabbits to make an early statement for the mid-majors. I gotta' remember to DVR that one.