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Road to Selection Sunday: Optimism; Tubby's First 5 vs Dan's First 5; A Rewind & more
Road to Selection Sunday: Optimism; Tubby's First 5 vs. Dan's First 5; A Rewind; and Until We Meet Again
By SelectionSunday
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/142208?referrer_id=331171
ALWAYS NEXT SEASON, MINN. -- Folks, as Carol Burnett used to croon at the end of her variety show ("I'm so glad we've had this time together. ..."), once again it's been a pleasure sharing the 2011-12 college basketball season with all of you, well, all of you except the trolls, that is. It was another disappointing regular season for the Gophers, certainly, but unlike 2010-11 I think most would agree 2011-12 had a mostly fulfilling ending.
The nice run in the NIT allowed the Gophers and their fans to salvage something from a season marred by gut-wrenching late-game missed opportunities. More importantly, the NIT offered some legitimate reasons for optimism entering 2012-13. Optimism for 2012-13? You say you're a skeptic by nature? I give you the return of Rodney Williams and Andre Hollins, the possible (I'd say likely) return of Trevor Mbakwe, and dare I say it the addition of a battle-tested and proven Power 6 performer (Trent Lockett) to an already experienced and solid player rotation. (if you don't think Lockett would help the Gophers significantly -- especially after last night's debacle -- you're nuts)
So with that hint of optimism toward the Gophers and their 2012-13 season and with the usual tinge of melancholy ("One Shining Moment" is dancing through my head), it's time to put the 2011-12 season to bed, highlighted by our second annual "Tubby Smith vs. Dan Monson" comparison. In this space we'll compare Monson's first five seasons at the U (1999-2004) to Smith's first five seasons at the helm (2007-12), using a variety of statistical data.
To be clear, the intent of these stats isn't to turn this into a mind-numbing Smith/Monson debate, though constructive comments certainly are encouraged. Nor is its intent to illustrate whether or not Smith has reached the expectations some of us (myself included) had for him when he was ceremoniously hired in March of 2007. Simply stated, these are their numbers through Year 5 of their respective terms at the University of Minnesota. Raw numbers, no agenda. Feel free to interpret these numbers however you desire.
Please note that when referencing records I do not count games played vs. non-Division I opponents, and that when referencing RPI numbers my source is Jerry Palm's CollegeRPI.com site.
DAN MONSON (1999-2004) and TUBBY SMITH (2007-12)
Overall Record
Smith 102-68 (60%)
Monson 77-75 (50.7%)
Overall Record at Williams Arena
Smith 65-23 (73.9%)
Monson 61-24 (71.8%)
Overall Record in True Road Games
Smith 20-34 (37%)
Monson 13-41 (24.1%)
Overall Record at Neutral Sites
Smith 17-11 (60.7%)
Monson 3-10 (23.1%)
B1G Record (excluding B1G Tournament)
Smith 38-52 (42.2%)
Monson 29-51 (36.3%)
B1G Record at Williams Arena
Smith 24-21 (53.3%)
Monson 21-19 (52.5%)
B1G Road Record
Smith 14-31 (31.1%)
Monson 8-32 (20%)
B1G Tournament Record
Smith 7-5 (58.3%)
Monson 2-5 (28.6%)
Record vs. B1G Opponents Finishing .500 or Better during Conference Season
Smith 15-42 (26.3%)
Monson 10-38 (20.8%)
Record in February/March
Smith 27-40 (40.3%)
Monson 22-38 (36.7%)
Record vs. Current B1G Programs
Illinois -- Smith (3-6), Monson (0-10)
Indiana -- Smith (6-5), Monson (4-4)
Iowa -- Smith (6-2), Monson (3-6)
Michigan -- Monson (5-2), Smith (3-7)
Michigan State -- Monson (2-6), Smith (1-11)
Nebraska -- Smith (2-0), Monson (2-3)
Northwestern -- Smith (9-5), Monson (5-3)
Ohio State -- Smith (3-7), Monson (1-7)
Penn State -- Smith (7-3), Monson (6-3)
Purdue -- Monson (4-6), Smith (2-6)
Wisconsin -- Smith (3-5), Monson (1-9)
NCAA Tournament Appearances/Record
Smith 2/0-2 (0%)
Monson 0/0-0 (-)
NIT Appearances/Record
Monson 3/5-4 (55.6%)
Smith 2/4-2 (66.7%)
Record vs. Power 6 Conferences (non-B1G)
Smith 10-7 (58.8%)
Monson 10-15 (40%)
Record vs. RPI Top 25
Smith 11-30 (26.8%)
Monson 6-25 (19.4%)
Record vs. RPI Top 50
Smith 17-44 (27.9%)
Monson 12-46 (20.7%)
RPI Top 50 Wins
Smith (17) -- vs. #4 Louisville (2008-09), vs. #6 North Carolina (2010-11), vs. #12 Butler (2009-10), #12 Purdue (2010-11), vs. #16 Purdue (2009-10), @ #17 Indiana (2011-12), vs. #21 West Virginia (2010-11), #21 Wisconsin (2009-10), vs. #22 Indiana (2008-09), #22 Illinois (2008-09), #22 Ohio State (2009-10), vs. #28 Michigan State (2009-10), #32 Ohio State (2008-09), #43 South Dakota State (2011-12), @ #45 Wisconsin (2008-09), #45 Wisconsin (2008-09), #49 Ohio State (2007-08)
Monson (12) -- #5 Georgia (2002-03), #16 Indiana (2000-01), #17 Ohio State (2001-02), #19 Wisconsin (2000-01), #20 Indiana (1999-00), #20 Indiana (2001-02), #27 Georgia (2000-01), #30 Purdue (2002-03), #31 Michigan State (2002-03), #34 Oregon (2001-02), #35 Michigan State (2001-02), **#45 Villanova (2000-01)
**denotes win occurred in NIT
Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers (All)
Smith 22-44 (33.3%)
Monson 14-47 (23%)
Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers (Home)
Monson 14-16 (46.7%)
Smith 12-18 (40%)
Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers (Road)
Smith 3-20 (13%)
Monson 0-26 (0%)
Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers (Neutral)
Smith 7-6 (53.8%)
Monson 0-5 (0%)
Average Gophers RPI
Smith -- 76 (best of #42, worst of #101)
Monson -- 97 (best of #71, worst of #156)
Strength of Schedule Average
Smith -- 52.6 (best of #34, worst of #113)
Monson -- 61.2 (best of #31, worst of #98)
Average RPI of Nonconference Opponents (regular season only)
Monson -- 149.357
Smith -- 177.216
Average RPI of Nonconference Home Opponents (regular season only)
Monson -- 180.55
Smith -- 204.357
HITS, MISSES & MISC.
Revisiting some RTSS preseason predictions and tidbits from way back on Oct. 11, 2011. ...
(1) The RTSS preseason top 4 were North Carolina, Ohio State, Kentucky and Duke, however, RTSS' preseason Final 4 were #1 North Carolina, #2 Ohio State, #7 Syracuse, and #8 Kansas. Got two of the Final 4 correct (with the other two advancing to the Elite 8), but missed on the national champion (North Carolina).
(2) 21 of RTSS' preseason top 25 made the NCAA Tournament. The ones that didn't were #9 Arizona, #11 Pitt, #21 Texas A&M, and #22 Old Dominion.
(3) The Gophers, Maryland and Texas A&M were the only D-I programs (of 344) that did not play a true road game during their nonconference schedule. Not that it's related, but none of those three made the NCAA Tournament.
(4) RTSS picked Ohio State to win the B1G regular season championship, which it did, but the Buckeyes shared it with Michigan State (picked #4 by RTSS) and Michigan (picked #3). The only teams RTSS had slotted in the correct position for the B1G Tournament were #6 Purdue, #11 Nebraska, and #12 Penn State. RTSS tabbed the Gophers at #5.
(5) RTSS pegged Draymond Green, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Trevor Mbakwe, Jared Sullinger and Jordan Taylor as All-B1G 1st teamers. Green, Sullinger and Taylor (coaches vote) made it, but they were joined by Robbie Hummel and Tim Frazier (media vote).
(6) RTSS said folks should "buy" Iowa State, and that proved to be correct. The Cyclones were a nice story and advanced to the Round of 32. The Cyclones will be an interesting team again in 2012-13, this time to find out if The Mayor can sustain his program's momentum without Royce White.
(7) RTSS had nine "coaches with hot pants" (read: on the hot seat) prior to the season. Only one was fired, Chris Lowery of Southern Illinois, though a second one (Ted Woodward/Maine) certainly should have joined him. Hot-seaters Stan Heath (USF) and Derek Kellogg (UMass) came through with flying colors, advancing to the NCAA Round of 32 and NIT Final Four, respectively.
(8) RTSS' most likely non-BCS team to crack the Final Four, Xavier, made it to the Sweet 16.
(9) RTSS correctly pegged 40 of the 68 teams that would make the NCAA Tournament, picking seven conferences right on the button -- Atlantic Sun (Belmont); Big South (UNC-Asheville); Big West (Long Beach State); Ivy (Harvard); Missouri Valley (Creighton & Wichita State); Northeast (LIU); and the West Coast (BYU, Gonzaga & Saint Mary's).
MY #1 CONCERN FOR 2012-13 GOPHERS
The Gophers are careless with the basketball with a capital "C", and not just the guards. They need to shore that up or it's going to be another disappointing B1G season. The Badgers get a lot of grief here (as you'd expect, they're our chief rivals), but there are reasons the Badgers win a lot of basketball games season after season. One of those reasons is they value the basketball. They don't throw away many possessions. Would like to see the Gophers take on that trait next season.
And now, back to Carol Burnett. ... "Seems we just get started and before you know it, comes the time we have to say so long."
Good night everybody, see ya' all on the Road to Atlanta '13.
Road to Selection Sunday: Optimism; Tubby's First 5 vs. Dan's First 5; A Rewind; and Until We Meet Again
By SelectionSunday
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/142208?referrer_id=331171
ALWAYS NEXT SEASON, MINN. -- Folks, as Carol Burnett used to croon at the end of her variety show ("I'm so glad we've had this time together. ..."), once again it's been a pleasure sharing the 2011-12 college basketball season with all of you, well, all of you except the trolls, that is. It was another disappointing regular season for the Gophers, certainly, but unlike 2010-11 I think most would agree 2011-12 had a mostly fulfilling ending.
The nice run in the NIT allowed the Gophers and their fans to salvage something from a season marred by gut-wrenching late-game missed opportunities. More importantly, the NIT offered some legitimate reasons for optimism entering 2012-13. Optimism for 2012-13? You say you're a skeptic by nature? I give you the return of Rodney Williams and Andre Hollins, the possible (I'd say likely) return of Trevor Mbakwe, and dare I say it the addition of a battle-tested and proven Power 6 performer (Trent Lockett) to an already experienced and solid player rotation. (if you don't think Lockett would help the Gophers significantly -- especially after last night's debacle -- you're nuts)
So with that hint of optimism toward the Gophers and their 2012-13 season and with the usual tinge of melancholy ("One Shining Moment" is dancing through my head), it's time to put the 2011-12 season to bed, highlighted by our second annual "Tubby Smith vs. Dan Monson" comparison. In this space we'll compare Monson's first five seasons at the U (1999-2004) to Smith's first five seasons at the helm (2007-12), using a variety of statistical data.
To be clear, the intent of these stats isn't to turn this into a mind-numbing Smith/Monson debate, though constructive comments certainly are encouraged. Nor is its intent to illustrate whether or not Smith has reached the expectations some of us (myself included) had for him when he was ceremoniously hired in March of 2007. Simply stated, these are their numbers through Year 5 of their respective terms at the University of Minnesota. Raw numbers, no agenda. Feel free to interpret these numbers however you desire.
Please note that when referencing records I do not count games played vs. non-Division I opponents, and that when referencing RPI numbers my source is Jerry Palm's CollegeRPI.com site.
DAN MONSON (1999-2004) and TUBBY SMITH (2007-12)
Overall Record
Smith 102-68 (60%)
Monson 77-75 (50.7%)
Overall Record at Williams Arena
Smith 65-23 (73.9%)
Monson 61-24 (71.8%)
Overall Record in True Road Games
Smith 20-34 (37%)
Monson 13-41 (24.1%)
Overall Record at Neutral Sites
Smith 17-11 (60.7%)
Monson 3-10 (23.1%)
B1G Record (excluding B1G Tournament)
Smith 38-52 (42.2%)
Monson 29-51 (36.3%)
B1G Record at Williams Arena
Smith 24-21 (53.3%)
Monson 21-19 (52.5%)
B1G Road Record
Smith 14-31 (31.1%)
Monson 8-32 (20%)
B1G Tournament Record
Smith 7-5 (58.3%)
Monson 2-5 (28.6%)
Record vs. B1G Opponents Finishing .500 or Better during Conference Season
Smith 15-42 (26.3%)
Monson 10-38 (20.8%)
Record in February/March
Smith 27-40 (40.3%)
Monson 22-38 (36.7%)
Record vs. Current B1G Programs
Illinois -- Smith (3-6), Monson (0-10)
Indiana -- Smith (6-5), Monson (4-4)
Iowa -- Smith (6-2), Monson (3-6)
Michigan -- Monson (5-2), Smith (3-7)
Michigan State -- Monson (2-6), Smith (1-11)
Nebraska -- Smith (2-0), Monson (2-3)
Northwestern -- Smith (9-5), Monson (5-3)
Ohio State -- Smith (3-7), Monson (1-7)
Penn State -- Smith (7-3), Monson (6-3)
Purdue -- Monson (4-6), Smith (2-6)
Wisconsin -- Smith (3-5), Monson (1-9)
NCAA Tournament Appearances/Record
Smith 2/0-2 (0%)
Monson 0/0-0 (-)
NIT Appearances/Record
Monson 3/5-4 (55.6%)
Smith 2/4-2 (66.7%)
Record vs. Power 6 Conferences (non-B1G)
Smith 10-7 (58.8%)
Monson 10-15 (40%)
Record vs. RPI Top 25
Smith 11-30 (26.8%)
Monson 6-25 (19.4%)
Record vs. RPI Top 50
Smith 17-44 (27.9%)
Monson 12-46 (20.7%)
RPI Top 50 Wins
Smith (17) -- vs. #4 Louisville (2008-09), vs. #6 North Carolina (2010-11), vs. #12 Butler (2009-10), #12 Purdue (2010-11), vs. #16 Purdue (2009-10), @ #17 Indiana (2011-12), vs. #21 West Virginia (2010-11), #21 Wisconsin (2009-10), vs. #22 Indiana (2008-09), #22 Illinois (2008-09), #22 Ohio State (2009-10), vs. #28 Michigan State (2009-10), #32 Ohio State (2008-09), #43 South Dakota State (2011-12), @ #45 Wisconsin (2008-09), #45 Wisconsin (2008-09), #49 Ohio State (2007-08)
Monson (12) -- #5 Georgia (2002-03), #16 Indiana (2000-01), #17 Ohio State (2001-02), #19 Wisconsin (2000-01), #20 Indiana (1999-00), #20 Indiana (2001-02), #27 Georgia (2000-01), #30 Purdue (2002-03), #31 Michigan State (2002-03), #34 Oregon (2001-02), #35 Michigan State (2001-02), **#45 Villanova (2000-01)
**denotes win occurred in NIT
Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers (All)
Smith 22-44 (33.3%)
Monson 14-47 (23%)
Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers (Home)
Monson 14-16 (46.7%)
Smith 12-18 (40%)
Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers (Road)
Smith 3-20 (13%)
Monson 0-26 (0%)
Record vs. NCAA Qualifiers (Neutral)
Smith 7-6 (53.8%)
Monson 0-5 (0%)
Average Gophers RPI
Smith -- 76 (best of #42, worst of #101)
Monson -- 97 (best of #71, worst of #156)
Strength of Schedule Average
Smith -- 52.6 (best of #34, worst of #113)
Monson -- 61.2 (best of #31, worst of #98)
Average RPI of Nonconference Opponents (regular season only)
Monson -- 149.357
Smith -- 177.216
Average RPI of Nonconference Home Opponents (regular season only)
Monson -- 180.55
Smith -- 204.357
HITS, MISSES & MISC.
Revisiting some RTSS preseason predictions and tidbits from way back on Oct. 11, 2011. ...
(1) The RTSS preseason top 4 were North Carolina, Ohio State, Kentucky and Duke, however, RTSS' preseason Final 4 were #1 North Carolina, #2 Ohio State, #7 Syracuse, and #8 Kansas. Got two of the Final 4 correct (with the other two advancing to the Elite 8), but missed on the national champion (North Carolina).
(2) 21 of RTSS' preseason top 25 made the NCAA Tournament. The ones that didn't were #9 Arizona, #11 Pitt, #21 Texas A&M, and #22 Old Dominion.
(3) The Gophers, Maryland and Texas A&M were the only D-I programs (of 344) that did not play a true road game during their nonconference schedule. Not that it's related, but none of those three made the NCAA Tournament.
(4) RTSS picked Ohio State to win the B1G regular season championship, which it did, but the Buckeyes shared it with Michigan State (picked #4 by RTSS) and Michigan (picked #3). The only teams RTSS had slotted in the correct position for the B1G Tournament were #6 Purdue, #11 Nebraska, and #12 Penn State. RTSS tabbed the Gophers at #5.
(5) RTSS pegged Draymond Green, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Trevor Mbakwe, Jared Sullinger and Jordan Taylor as All-B1G 1st teamers. Green, Sullinger and Taylor (coaches vote) made it, but they were joined by Robbie Hummel and Tim Frazier (media vote).
(6) RTSS said folks should "buy" Iowa State, and that proved to be correct. The Cyclones were a nice story and advanced to the Round of 32. The Cyclones will be an interesting team again in 2012-13, this time to find out if The Mayor can sustain his program's momentum without Royce White.
(7) RTSS had nine "coaches with hot pants" (read: on the hot seat) prior to the season. Only one was fired, Chris Lowery of Southern Illinois, though a second one (Ted Woodward/Maine) certainly should have joined him. Hot-seaters Stan Heath (USF) and Derek Kellogg (UMass) came through with flying colors, advancing to the NCAA Round of 32 and NIT Final Four, respectively.
(8) RTSS' most likely non-BCS team to crack the Final Four, Xavier, made it to the Sweet 16.
(9) RTSS correctly pegged 40 of the 68 teams that would make the NCAA Tournament, picking seven conferences right on the button -- Atlantic Sun (Belmont); Big South (UNC-Asheville); Big West (Long Beach State); Ivy (Harvard); Missouri Valley (Creighton & Wichita State); Northeast (LIU); and the West Coast (BYU, Gonzaga & Saint Mary's).
MY #1 CONCERN FOR 2012-13 GOPHERS
The Gophers are careless with the basketball with a capital "C", and not just the guards. They need to shore that up or it's going to be another disappointing B1G season. The Badgers get a lot of grief here (as you'd expect, they're our chief rivals), but there are reasons the Badgers win a lot of basketball games season after season. One of those reasons is they value the basketball. They don't throw away many possessions. Would like to see the Gophers take on that trait next season.
And now, back to Carol Burnett. ... "Seems we just get started and before you know it, comes the time we have to say so long."
Good night everybody, see ya' all on the Road to Atlanta '13.
