Road to Selection Sunday: No Such Thing As Magic Number, But 21 Should Do It For U

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Road to Selection Sunday: No Such Thing As Magic Number, But 21 Should Do It For Gophers
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/305355?referrer_id=388419

DESTINATION BRACKETVILLE, MINN. -- We all know the road to Selection Sunday is a long and winding road, but please indulge me this late October as I do my "level best" to lay out exactly what the Gophers need accomplish to hear their name called on Sunday, March 16.

When the Gophers and young gun coach Richard Pitino make their debut Friday night vs. Cardinal Stritch in the first of two exhibition games, these things we know almost certainly to be true. Between now and Selection Sunday, there will be joy and there will be pain. There will be potholes, there will be injuries, there will be fantastic finishes, and there will be heartbreak. There will be an unexpected win (or two) that instantly raises our expectations, and there will be a defeat (or two) that causes excessive angst in Gopher Nation (Tim Brewster's term, not mine).

Highs and lows, ebbs and flows. It's why we should savor every single college basketball season, and why it's mandatory we always take time to enjoy the journey, no matter how our favorite team is performing. The college hoops season always is a marathon, never a sprint. A great start to the season doesn't mean there will be a strong finish (U fans know that), nor does a poor start mandate a poor finish. College buckets has a nice, steady pace to it, broken neatly into three sections: the dip-our-toes-in-the-water nonconference season (November-December); the dive-head-long-into-it conference season (January-March); and the dramatic denouement, the Madness we call March (conference and NCAA tournaments).

So with that backdrop, let's discuss the 2013-14 Gophers. The prevailing feeling nationally, if not locally, is the Gophers will finish eighth or ninth in the Big Ten. I think that projection is fair, if not slightly off. Me, personally, I feel strongly Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin will finish ahead of the Gophers. Indiana, because of its youth, I'm not quite all in on, but I'll add the Hoosiers to that group to complete the top half of the Big Ten. All six should safely make the NCAA tourney.

That leaves the Gophers, Illinois, Purdue, and (maybe) Northwestern in the 7-10 slots picking up the scraps and trying to earn the B1G another 1 or 2 at-large bids to the tournament. Which leads to the question, what will it take for the Gophers to go dancing in 2014? Is there a magic number of conference (9) and overall (20) wins that will get them in? (The answer is no, but there still are folks who believe the Selection Committee deals in magic numbers and rewarding schools in part because of their conference affiliation)

Here's one man's estimate on what the Gophers need to get done to have a NCAA-worthy Selection Sunday. The Gophers' 31 games are divided into 5 levels. Level 1 games are projected to be the most difficult, Level 2 the next most difficult, and so on. As I mentioned above, there is no such thing as a magic number, but if there were I'd set the number at 21 for the Gophers. ... the goal is a 21-10 mark. We'll start with the easiest games. ...

Level 5 Games (must go 6-0)
These are the Gophers' most delicious pastries. Soft and gooey in the middle, these foes should serve as nothing more than glorified scrimmages. Enjoy watching the Gophers run, dunk, harass, rain 3s, and dominate. You may find yourself leaving early to beat the traffic.

Lehigh (Nov. 8)
Coastal Carolina (Nov. 19)
Wofford (Nov. 21)
New Orleans (Dec. 7)
Omaha (Dec. 20)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Dec. 28)

Level 4 (go 3-0)
These games might not be decided by halftime. I can see the Gophers with no more than a 10-point lead at the break, but they'll pull away in the second half.

Montana (Nov. 12)
South Dakota State (Dec. 10)
Penn State (March 8/9)

Level 3 (go 5-2)
At this level we're looking at teams I'd expect the Gophers to beat, but teams certainly capable of beating the Gophers, especially if it's on the road or at a neutral site.

vs. Arkansas (Nov. 26) -- projecting Gophers will play Razorbacks in Maui consolation semifinals
vs. Dayton (Nov. 27) -- projecting Gophers will play Flyers in consolation championship
Florida State (Dec. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 8)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 26)
Northwestern (Feb. 1)
@ Northwestern (Feb. 16)

Level 2 (go 4-1)
The Gophers need to make hay here. These are opponents I'd consider most similar to the Gophers, and certainly the location of the game (i.e. @ Richmond) plays into that equation. At the end of the season, it's important to have some head-to-head wins over teams who also may be sitting on that NCAA tourney fence.

@ Richmond (Nov. 16)
Purdue (Jan. 5)
@ Purdue (Feb. 5)
Indiana (Feb. 8)
Illinois (Feb. 19)

Level 1 (go 3-7)
These are the big boys, and the Gophers will have plenty of opportunities for "signature wins" similar to the one the Gopher footballers recorded Saturday vs. Nebraska. I think I can find 3 wins in this group, but man, 4 would be a significant accomplishment.

vs. Syracuse (Nov. 25)
Michigan (Jan. 2)
@ Michigan State (Jan. 11)
Ohio State (Jan. 16)
@ Iowa (Jan. 19)
Wisconsin (Jan. 22)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 13)
@ Ohio State (Feb. 22)
Iowa (Feb. 25)
@ Michigan (March 1)

Do this and I think odds are on Selection Sunday the Gophers will be in the neighborhood of .500 in the Big Ten and sitting there with 5 or 6 RPI top-50 wins. Generally speaking, those numbers would bode well for a major-conference bubble team. Blackjack should do it for the 2013-14 Gophers.

Thoughts, constructive criticisms, etc., are strongly encouraged. I say it every year at this time, make sure you enjoy the journey!
 

Hodger, fantastic read. I love the breakdown. I like your annual reminder of "enjoying the journey" and I certainly will, but now I have "21" as my target, I'll begin to focus on that!

Go Gophers!!
 

love it ss!! thanks for doing this, a very insightful column. going 3-7 in level 1 will the be the hardest of the group.
 

Thanks Bleed. I think last season's Gophers are a perfect example of the highs and lows & the back and forth that can take place several times throughout one basketball season.

The 15-1 start.

Getting blitzed at half @ Indiana, then they almost come all the way back to beat the Hoosiers.

Then 8 losses in an 11-game stretch, including embarrassing, non-competitive stinkers @ Northwestern, Iowa, and Ohio State.

Then, with their recent play having shown no signs they were capable of it, inexplicably beat the #1 team in the country for a court-storming moment. ...

To be followed one game later by horrendous road performances vs. Big Ten also-rans Nebraska and Purdue.

Then the punch in the gut buzzer beater by Brandon Paul in Chicago. ...

Yet despite all this the Gophers still managed to finish the season on an up note, logging their first NCAA Tournament victory since 1997. It was nice to stick around the NCAA tourney for more than a couple hours.

Highs and lows. I'm ready for more.
 

Great read! Arkansas should not be in Level 3 though... Will be a battle of whose strongest area plays the best; the Gophers' experienced guards vs the young, incredibly talented big men of Arkansas. You're not giving enough respect to Bobby Portis & Moses Kingsley if you think the Razorbacks are Level 3. Only complaint!
 


GopherDude said:
Great read! Arkansas should not be in Level 3 though... Will be a battle of whose strongest area plays the best; the Gophers' experienced guards vs the young, incredibly talented big men of Arkansas. You're not giving enough respect to Bobby Portis & Moses Kingsley if you think the Razorbacks are Level 3. Only complaint!
Click to expand...

Appreciate the comments. I did struggle with whether to put the Hogs in Level 2 or Level 3. I hope you are correct. The more top quality opponents the Gophers play the better.
 

Level 5 6-0
Level 4 3-0
Level 3 6-1 (loss @NW)
Level 2 4-1 (loss @ Purdue)
Level 1 2-8 (wins vs Iowa and Wisconsin)
Although I can see us losing at Penn State or at Nebraska and I can see us winning at Northwestern. As for level 2, I could see us having a hick up at Richmond. Level 1, I always picks us to beat Iowa and Wiscky at home, but who really knows where the wins will come from in that part of the schedule. 21 wins can get us in, but we need to at least get to the quarters of the conference tourney. If this scenerio that's just my opinion plays out and we lose on Thursday to say NW, selection sunday will be nerve racking on all of us
 

Go4 said:
love it ss!! thanks for doing this, a very insightful column. going 3-7 in level 1 will the be the hardest of the group.
Click to expand...

Agreed. That's a brutal grouping. An early win over Syracuse in Maui would certainly be a great way to start it.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Agreed. That's a brutal grouping. An early win over Syracuse in Maui would certainly be a great way to start it.
Click to expand...

SS, how would that change the projected record in group 3? If we win vs. Syracuse, do you see us going 1-2 in Maui? If not, who do we beat; if so, is that better than 2-1 with the Syracuse loss?
 



fryguy22 said:
SS, how would that change the projected record in group 3? If we win vs. Syracuse, do you see us going 1-2 in Maui? If not, who do we beat; if so, is that better than 2-1 with the Syracuse loss?
Click to expand...

If we beat Syracuse, I think that ups the ante quite a bit in Maui. I'd still be thinking 2-1 with potential winners-bracket & final round games vs. Cal/Arkansas and likely Baylor/Gonzaga. Either way, there's so much more to gain by getting on the winners side of the bracket. To a certain extent I think going 1-2 with a win over Syracuse would be more beneficial (resume-wise) than 2-1 with wins over 2 of Arkansas/Cal/Dayton.
 

SS, I am glad I don't have to do what you do. You do an awesome job with all of the plots, and part of "enjoying the journey" for me is reading your input. I am basically very lazy, and you definitely help me. Thank you. Doc
 

I expect this team will get better as the season goes on but with a lot of new players and a whole new system I wouldn't be surprise if after Maui the record is 5-3.
 

scools12 said:
I expect this team will get better as the season goes on but with a lot of new players and a whole new system I wouldn't be surprise if after Maui the record is 5-3.
Click to expand...

Well if worse comes to worse we can always beat up on Charminade in the toilet bowl
 



I think SS's thoughts are good. 12-1 and 9-9 for 21-10 or 11-2 and 10-8 for 21-10 should put Minnesota in good shape. Anything less probably brings in a lot of worry and may require a win or more at the BTT.

If anyone is interested in how the RPI might look for the Gophers if they had the same win-loss results as last year (i.e., assume they only lose to Syracuse in NC; then go 8-10 in conference and lose in the first round of the BTT), LNH went through some fairly involved calcs and predictions... whereas the Gophers were ranked #34 in the RPI last year... this year with the same win-loss results they'd probably be up in the 50's.

Many variables involved, but I think the Gophers will need to win 9 conference games or more to reach the tourney. Should be a team that can upset others with a good 3-point shooting night though... just need a couple close ones to fall their way..
 

Well the road to 21 starts with the first three.

Wins against Level 5, Level 4, and Level 2 to this point.

Will be interesting to track against the analysis cited in this thread.
 

I love this reference schedule that I can check on as the season keeps going. It's a great article to track where we are. Although I will say that I think 20 wins would get it done, and therefore the goal would to go 3-2 in level 2 games. It's unlikely, but very possible we could make it! I'm really looking forward to the Maui Invitational in a little over a week!
 

Glad to hear you guys are using it as a reference tool. That was my hope when I put it together.

Richmond was the first significant step to 21.
 

I just happened to see your article today. I like it. With the schedule broken down into segments, seems attainable to make the tourney. You never know. Thanks for the research. Appreciate it. (1/7 of the way there.)
 

I suspect Nebraska might be on par with Purdue and Illinois this year, so I would say the home games with Purdue and Illinois are more likely wins than the game at Nebraska. Nebraska has a brand new arena sold out all year long and strong fan support - should be a tough environment to go in and get a win, and Nebraska has upgraded their athleticism significantly from last year.
 

GopherHole Staff said:
Road to Selection Sunday: No Such Thing As Magic Number, But 21 Should Do It For Gophers
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/305355?referrer_id=388419


Level 5 Games (must go 6-0)
These are the Gophers' most delicious pastries. Soft and gooey in the middle, these foes should serve as nothing more than glorified scrimmages. Enjoy watching the Gophers run, dunk, harass, rain 3s, and dominate. You may find yourself leaving early to beat the traffic.

Lehigh (Nov. 8)
Coastal Carolina (Nov. 19)
Wofford (Nov. 21)
New Orleans (Dec. 7)
Omaha (Dec. 20)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Dec. 28)

Level 4 (go 3-0)
These games might not be decided by halftime. I can see the Gophers with no more than a 10-point lead at the break, but they'll pull away in the second half.

Montana (Nov. 12)
South Dakota State (Dec. 10)
Penn State (March 8/9)

Level 3 (go 5-2)
At this level we're looking at teams I'd expect the Gophers to beat, but teams certainly capable of beating the Gophers, especially if it's on the road or at a neutral site.

vs. Arkansas (Nov. 26) -- projecting Gophers will play Razorbacks in Maui consolation semifinals
vs. Dayton (Nov. 27) -- projecting Gophers will play Flyers in consolation championship
Florida State (Dec. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 8)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 26)
Northwestern (Feb. 1)
@ Northwestern (Feb. 16)

Level 2 (go 4-1)
The Gophers need to make hay here. These are opponents I'd consider most similar to the Gophers, and certainly the location of the game (i.e. @ Richmond) plays into that equation. At the end of the season, it's important to have some head-to-head wins over teams who also may be sitting on that NCAA tourney fence.

@ Richmond (Nov. 16)
Purdue (Jan. 5)
@ Purdue (Feb. 5)
Indiana (Feb. 8)
Illinois (Feb. 19)

Level 1 (go 3-7)
These are the big boys, and the Gophers will have plenty of opportunities for "signature wins" similar to the one the Gopher footballers recorded Saturday vs. Nebraska. I think I can find 3 wins in this group, but man, 4 would be a significant accomplishment.

vs. Syracuse (Nov. 25)
Michigan (Jan. 2)
@ Michigan State (Jan. 11)
Ohio State (Jan. 16)
@ Iowa (Jan. 19)
Wisconsin (Jan. 22)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 13)
@ Ohio State (Feb. 22)
Iowa (Feb. 25)
@ Michigan (March 1)

Do this and I think odds are on Selection Sunday the Gophers will be in the neighborhood of .500 in the Big Ten and sitting there with 5 or 6 RPI top-50 wins. Generally speaking, those numbers would bode well for a major-conference bubble team. Blackjack should do it for the 2013-14 Gophers.

Thoughts, constructive criticisms, etc., are strongly encouraged. I say it every year at this time, make sure you enjoy the journey!
Click to expand...

BUMP.....

Level 5 -- 5-0 (need 7-0, assuming Chaminade moves up to this category. It is unclear if that means we need another win somewhere else. I'm assuming 22 wins now if you include Chaminade, as this doesn't count in the minds of the NCAA, per other posters.)

Level 4 -- 2-0 (need 3-0)

Level 3 -- 1-1 (need 5-1, one less opportunity with no Dayton game here)

Level 2 -- 1-0 (need 4-1)

Level 1 -- 0-1 (need 3-7)

Also interesting to note that the "big boys" really haven't disappointed. It still looks like Wisconsin/Ohio State/Michigan State/Iowa/Michigan are the first tier and the level two's are a step below (Indiana/Illinois/Purdue). Will be interesting to see how this plays out in conference.
 

golfing18now said:
BUMP.....

Level 5 -- 5-0 (need 7-0, assuming Chaminade moves up to this category. It is unclear if that means we need another win somewhere else. I'm assuming 22 wins now if you include Chaminade, as this doesn't count in the minds of the NCAA, per other posters.)

Level 4 -- 2-0 (need 3-0)

Level 3 -- 1-1 (need 5-1, one less opportunity with no Dayton game here)

Level 2 -- 1-0 (need 4-1)

Level 1 -- 0-1 (need 3-7)

Also interesting to note that the "big boys" really haven't disappointed. It still looks like Wisconsin/Ohio State/Michigan State/Iowa/Michigan are the first tier and the level two's are a step below (Indiana/Illinois/Purdue). Will be interesting to see how this plays out in conference.
Click to expand...

22 wins would mean an 11 win bigten campaighn, we will be safely in, heck will get a home game with 11 wins, I do believe 10 or even nine wins, provided we don't **** the bed thursday in the conference tourney would get us in as well.
 

bemidjigopher said:
22 wins would mean an 11 win bigten campaighn, we will be safely in, heck will get a home game with 11 wins, I do believe 10 or even nine wins, provided we don't **** the bed thursday in the conference tourney would get us in as well.
Click to expand...

I would agree that 11 wins in conference would be a lock. Ten wins in conference would be interesting and might hinge on the B1G tourney, depending on how the other teams stacked up. Nine wins would make me nervous w/o any signature wins.

Obviously much basketball to be played between now and then.
 

golfing18now said:
I would agree that 11 wins in conference would be a lock. Ten wins in conference would be interesting and might hinge on the B1G tourney, depending on how the other teams stacked up. Nine wins would make me nervous w/o any signature wins.

Obviously much basketball to be played between now and then.
Click to expand...
Agreed 9-9 would be nerve racking, depends on who we beat, the conference tourney, the 09 team got in at 9-9 course they had a win over Louisville and two wins vs Wisconsin
 

Don't want to put the cart before the horse before the Omaha game (don't sleep on UNO, they're much better than I thought), but if the Gophers finish the nonconference season 10-2 (excluding Chaminade win) I think 10-8 in the Big Ten should pose very minimal problems for their NCAA tourney chances. In effect, the lack of a third D-I game in Maui kind of slid the "magic number" (so to speak) from 21 (D-I wins) to 20/21. One less opportunity = 20 (D-I wins) should probably do it. Make sense?

Beat Omaha. Am a little worried about the game Friday. Coming off final exams, and vs. a decent opponent. Can't afford a slip-up before the Big Ten starts.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Don't want to put the cart before the horse before the Omaha game (don't sleep on UNO, they're much better than I thought), but if the Gophers finish the nonconference season 10-2 (excluding Chaminade win) I think 10-8 in the Big Ten should pose very minimal problems for their NCAA tourney chances. In effect, the lack of a third D-I game in Maui kind of slid the "magic number" (so to speak) from 21 (D-I wins) to 20/21. One less opportunity = 20 (D-I wins) should probably do it. Make sense?

Beat Omaha. Am a little worried about the game Friday. Coming off final exams, and vs. a decent opponent. Can't afford a slip-up before the Big Ten starts.
Click to expand...

Agree that Omaha has looked very good. A loss @Iowa by 8, a loss @UNLV by 3, and a loss @Drake by 8 means this team could very well be 11-0 had a few things fell differently. With so much time in between games this one makes me nervous.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Don't want to put the cart before the horse before the Omaha game (don't sleep on UNO, they're much better than I thought), but if the Gophers finish the nonconference season 10-2 (excluding Chaminade win) I think 10-8 in the Big Ten should pose very minimal problems for their NCAA tourney chances. In effect, the lack of a third D-I game in Maui kind of slid the "magic number" (so to speak) from 21 (D-I wins) to 20/21. One less opportunity = 20 (D-I wins) should probably do it. Make sense?
Click to expand...


Yes, I agree. 20-10, 10-8 would be a virtual lock for the tourney. Getting to TEN wins in the Big Ten would mean at least 2 "key" wins against quality opponents (and probably more).

A 19-11, 9-9 Gopher team could be a strong bubbling team. I think if the Gophers can win the "right" games in the Big Ten schedule, they can be somewhat comfortable. Of course, the quality of wins will impact the quality of sleep we might get the night before Selection Sunday. Iowa was left out with a 20-11, 9-9 record last year but had no "signature" win to speak of and a couple of atrocious losses. If it comes down to MN being 9-9 (and I think 9-9 would be a nice season), then we should become fans of Richmond and Florida State to be good to get us a couple OOC Top 75ish wins, hope our conference losses are to upper end/middle teams (avoid bad losses), and that we get 2-3 wins against top Big Ten teams.
 

Does anyone here honestly think we can win 10 big ten games? I give it as much of a chance as Wisconsin winning a rose bowl.
 


afurry91 said:
Does anyone here honestly think we can win 10 big ten games? I give it as much of a chance as Wisconsin winning a rose bowl.
Click to expand...

7 or 8 is more realistic, but I can see 10 as a ceiling. It will require a good start. Win those first two at home and I think the bar gets raised.
 

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