SelectionSunday
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By Buzz King (@Fieldof68Freak)
ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY – As always, we start with a weekly “Field of 68” projection. In multiple-bid conferences, projected automatic qualifiers (best conference record or, if a tie, best NET ranking) are noted with a *.
FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played 2/8/25)
America East (1): Bryant (158)
American (1): Memphis (45)
ACC (5): *Duke (2), Louisville (28), Clemson (30), North Carolina (46), Wake Forest (59)
ASUN (1): Lipscomb (89)
Atlantic 10 (1): George Mason (63)
Big East (4): *Saint John’s (20), Marquette (24), Creighton (32), UConn (33)
Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado (140)
Big South (1): High Point (94)
Big Ten (10): *Purdue (8), Illinois (12), Wisconsin (15), Maryland (16), Michigan (18), Michigan State (19), UCLA (25), Ohio State (27), Oregon (35), Nebraska (49)
Big XII (7): *Houston (3), Arizona (7), Texas Tech (9), Iowa State (10), Kansas (11), Baylor (26), West Virginia (38)
Big West (1): UC-San Diego (50)
Coastal (1): Towson (162)
Conference USA (1): Jacksonville State (111)
Horizon (1): Cleveland State (160)
Ivy (1): Yale (68)
MAAC (1): Merrimack (181)
MAC (1): Akron (88)
MEAC (1): Norfolk State (180)
Missouri Valley (1): Drake (57)
Mountain West (4): *New Mexico (36), Utah State (39), Boise State (48), San Diego State (52)
NEC (1): Central Connecticut (163)
OVC (1): Little Rock (195)
Patriot (1): American (234)
SEC (12): *Auburn (1), Tennessee (4), Florida (5), Alabama (6), Texas A&M (13), Kentucky (17), Ole Miss (22), Missouri (23), Mississippi State (29), Texas (31), Vanderbilt (42), Oklahoma (44)
SoCon (1): Samford (100)
Southland (1): McNeese (70)
SWAC (1): Southern U (210)
Summit (1): Omaha (201)
Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State (91)
WCC (2): Gonzaga (14), *Saint Mary’s (21)
WAC (1): Utah Valley (116)
--------------------------------------
Last 4 In: Texas (31), Oklahoma (44), North Carolina (46), Boise State (48)
First 4 Out: Georgia (34), VCU (37), SMU (40), Arkansas (43)
Next 4 Out: BYU (41), Cincinnati (51), UC-Irvine (62), Kansas State (73)
On the Radar O’Reilly (5): Pitt (47), Xavier (55), Indiana (61), Arizona State (64), UCF (72)
Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Little Rock (195), Omaha (201), Southern U (210), American (234)
Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Gonzaga (14), Utah State (38), Boise State (48), San Diego State (52)
-----------------------------------------
At-Larges (Record vs. the At-Large Field + Automatic Qualifiers in NET Top 75)
Alabama (10-3, .769)
Texas A&M (10-4, .714)
Florida (6-3, .667)
Tennessee (8-4, .667)
Michigan State (5-3, .625)
Utah State (3-2, .600)
Kentucky (7-5, .583)
UConn (4-3, .571)
Maryland (5-4, .556)
Marquette (5-4, .556)
UCLA (6-5, .545)
Clemson (3-3, .500)
Iowa State (4-4, .500)
Michigan (3-3, .500)
San Diego State (4-4, .500)
Texas Tech (3-3, .500)
West Virginia (4-4, .500)
Missouri (5-6, .455)
Creighton (4-5, .444)
Illinois (4-5, .444)
Louisville (4-5, .444)
Mississippi State (4-5, .444)
Nebraska (4-5, .444)
Oregon (5-7, .417)
Arizona (4-6, .400)
Boise State (2-3, .400) – LAST 4 IN
Kansas (4-6, .400)
Oklahoma (4-6, .400) – LAST 4 IN
Ole Miss (4-6, .400)
Wisconsin (3-5, .375)
Ohio State (4-7, .364)
Vanderbilt (3-6, .333)
Gonzaga (2-5, .286)
Wake Forest (2-5, .286)
Texas (3-8, .273) – LAST 4 IN
Baylor (2-6, .250)
North Carolina (1-8, .111) – LAST 4 IN
Received Consideration
UC-Irvine (1-1, .500)
Arizona State (3-6, .333)
Kansas State (3-6, .333)
Xavier (3-6, .333)
Georgia (3-7, .300) – FIRST 4 OUT
Pitt (3-7, .300)
Arkansas (3-8, .273) – FIRST 4 OUT
UCF (2-7, .222)
BYU (1-4, .200)
Indiana (1-8, .111)
VCU (0-1, .000) – FIRST 4 OUT
SMU (0-4, .000) – FIRST 4 OUT
Cincinnati (0-5, .000)
Heart of Bubblicious (NET #45-55)
45 Memphis (IN)
46 North Carolina (IN)
47 Pitt (OUT)
48 Boise State (IN)
49 Nebraska (IN)
50 UC-San Diego (IN)
51 Cincinnati (OUT)
52 San Diego State (IN)
53 Villanova (OUT)
54 Santa Clara (OUT)
55 Villanova (OUT)
6-Pack That Had a Great Week. …
Creighton, Nebraska, Saint John’s, Tennessee, UC-San Diego, Wisconsin
6-Pack That Had a Rough Week. …
Indiana, Marquette, Morehead State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pitt
Path of Least Resistance to Weakling Wednesday
It appears 7 conference wins (perhaps only 6) will be the number needed for teams to insure themselves a spot in the Big Ten Tournament. The Gophers’ smoothest path to Weakling Wednesday seems obvious. Back-to-back home games Feb. 22 vs. Penn State and Feb. 25 vs. Northwestern (minus out-for-the-season starters Brooks Barnhizer & Jalen Leach) have to be wins. HAVE TO. Win those two and then it’s just a matter of picking up one other win (they’ll be underdogs in the other 5) somewhere along the line.
Conquerors of Champions?
The Gophers hold victories over three opponents leading their respective conferences: Omaha (Summit League); Yale (Ivy League); and Cleveland State (Horizon League). And then there’s Michigan, currently in a 3-way dogfight with Purdue and Michigan State for the Big Ten regular season title.
Nothing But Blue Skies vs. the Big Sky
Three of St. Thomas’ 10 non-conference victories have come vs. the three teams sitting atop the Big Sky standings, co-leaders Northern Colorado & Montana, as well as (tied for) third-place Portland State. Interestingly, in their fourth season of Division 1, the Tommies have yet to defeat a NCAA Tournament qualifier. There’s a decent chance that will change in March with those wins over Northern Colorado/Montana combined with a Summit League win over SL kingpin South Dakota State.
Potential Bid-Stealing Conferences
Several conferences are looking like potential “bid-stealers” if the conference favorite(s) fails to win the conference tournament:
American: if Memphis loses
Atlantic 10: if VCU loses
Big West: if UC-San Diego loses in title game to UC-Irvine
Missouri Valley: if Drake loses
WCC: if someone other than Saint Mary’s or Gonzaga wins it
Beware of the Championship Week bid thieves!!!!
Not A Great Bubble (again) This Season
In recent years, the bubble more often than not has been weak. That's likely the case once again this season. How else can I explain returning middling North Carolina (14-10, 7-5 in a weak ACC) and its 1-9 Quad 1 record to the Field of 68 this week, with “first 4 out” teams VCU (zero NET top 50 wins) and SMU (zero Quad 1 wins) right there waiting in the wings?
And to think two seasons from now, you can bet the farm the tournament will expand to 72 or 76 teams, adding more garbage to the end of the bracket. Yuck!
A Shortlist, But There Are Plenty Others Out There
A compilation of some names thrown out there for a Big Ten job, if one were to become available. I would have no issue with any of these guys.
Bryce Drew (Grand Canyon)
Andy Kennedy (UAB)
Chris Mack (Charleston)
Ben McCollum (Drake)
Niko Medved (Colorado State)
Ryan Odom (VCU)
Micah Shrewsberry (Notre Dame)
There are plenty quality sitting head coaches who’d love a shot at a Big Ten job. It doesn't have to be one of these dudes (in case that needs to be said).
B1G Weakling Wednesday Dropouts – B1G Tournament no-shows?
** The 3 Big Ten teams tracking toward an early end to their 2024-25 season with no invitation to Indianapolis:
#16 Northwestern (4-9)
#17 Washington (3-9)
#18 Penn State (3-10)
The Local NETters
#99 Minnesota (12-12, 4-9 Big Ten)
#114 St. Thomas (19-7, 9-2 Summit League)
Big Ten +/- Power Rankings (Road Wins – Home Losses)
1 Michigan (+5)
2 Purdue (+4)
3 Michigan State (+4)
4 Wisconsin (+3)
5 Maryland (+2)
6 UCLA (+2)
7 Illinois (+2)
8 Ohio State (even)
9 Nebraska (even)
10 Indiana (-1)
11 Oregon (-1)
12 USC (-1)
13 Rutgers (-2)
14 Minnesota (-3)
15 Iowa (-3) – no road wins
16 Northwestern (-3) – no road wins
17 Washington (-4)
18 Penn State (-4) – no road wins
Summit League +/- Power Rankings (Road Wins – Home Losses)
1 Omaha (+4)
2 St. Thomas (+4)
3 South Dakota State (+2)
4 South Dakota (+2)
5 North Dakota State (+1)
6 North Dakota (-2)
7 Kansas City (-3) – no road wins
8 Denver (-4)
9 Oral Roberts (-4) – no road wins
Gophers Week Ahead
Saturday -- @ #71 USC
Tommies Week Ahead
Saturday – host #201 Omaha (for at least a share of Summit League lead)
Gophers Stat Leaders
Dawson Garcia (19.8 points per game), Garcia (7.4 rebounds per game), Lu’Cye Patterson (3.6 assists per game), Femi Odukale (1.4 steals per game), Isaac Asuma (37.5% 3PFG), Parker Fox (1.2 blocks per game)
Tommies Stat Leaders
Miles Barnstable (14.7 points per game), Kendall Blue (4.2 rebounds per game), Drake Dobbs (3.7 assists per game), Nolan Minessale (1.1 steals per game), Ben Oosterbaan (48.8% 3PFG), Minessale (1.1 blocks per game)
NET Kings
#1 Auburn (21-2)
Kinda’ Bubble Cutline
#50 UC-San Diego (18-4)
Stuck in the Middle with You
#182 Longwood (13-9)
Bottom of the Barrel
#364 Mississippi Valley State (1-20)
Deep (College Hoops) Thoughts, by Buzz Studley
Duke is really good, and Cooper Flagg is living up to his billing. But despite being in my preseason Final Four, I now can’t see the Dukies making it to the final weekend. They’ll get tripped up by a veteran team, perhaps even in the second round. Playing in a weak ACC where they’re rarely challenged probably isn’t the best prep for the one-and-done meat grinder of March Madness.
Next Road to Selection Sunday/Field of 68: Sunday, February 16
ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY – As always, we start with a weekly “Field of 68” projection. In multiple-bid conferences, projected automatic qualifiers (best conference record or, if a tie, best NET ranking) are noted with a *.
FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played 2/8/25)
America East (1): Bryant (158)
American (1): Memphis (45)
ACC (5): *Duke (2), Louisville (28), Clemson (30), North Carolina (46), Wake Forest (59)
ASUN (1): Lipscomb (89)
Atlantic 10 (1): George Mason (63)
Big East (4): *Saint John’s (20), Marquette (24), Creighton (32), UConn (33)
Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado (140)
Big South (1): High Point (94)
Big Ten (10): *Purdue (8), Illinois (12), Wisconsin (15), Maryland (16), Michigan (18), Michigan State (19), UCLA (25), Ohio State (27), Oregon (35), Nebraska (49)
Big XII (7): *Houston (3), Arizona (7), Texas Tech (9), Iowa State (10), Kansas (11), Baylor (26), West Virginia (38)
Big West (1): UC-San Diego (50)
Coastal (1): Towson (162)
Conference USA (1): Jacksonville State (111)
Horizon (1): Cleveland State (160)
Ivy (1): Yale (68)
MAAC (1): Merrimack (181)
MAC (1): Akron (88)
MEAC (1): Norfolk State (180)
Missouri Valley (1): Drake (57)
Mountain West (4): *New Mexico (36), Utah State (39), Boise State (48), San Diego State (52)
NEC (1): Central Connecticut (163)
OVC (1): Little Rock (195)
Patriot (1): American (234)
SEC (12): *Auburn (1), Tennessee (4), Florida (5), Alabama (6), Texas A&M (13), Kentucky (17), Ole Miss (22), Missouri (23), Mississippi State (29), Texas (31), Vanderbilt (42), Oklahoma (44)
SoCon (1): Samford (100)
Southland (1): McNeese (70)
SWAC (1): Southern U (210)
Summit (1): Omaha (201)
Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State (91)
WCC (2): Gonzaga (14), *Saint Mary’s (21)
WAC (1): Utah Valley (116)
--------------------------------------
Last 4 In: Texas (31), Oklahoma (44), North Carolina (46), Boise State (48)
First 4 Out: Georgia (34), VCU (37), SMU (40), Arkansas (43)
Next 4 Out: BYU (41), Cincinnati (51), UC-Irvine (62), Kansas State (73)
On the Radar O’Reilly (5): Pitt (47), Xavier (55), Indiana (61), Arizona State (64), UCF (72)
Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Little Rock (195), Omaha (201), Southern U (210), American (234)
Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Gonzaga (14), Utah State (38), Boise State (48), San Diego State (52)
-----------------------------------------
At-Larges (Record vs. the At-Large Field + Automatic Qualifiers in NET Top 75)
Alabama (10-3, .769)
Texas A&M (10-4, .714)
Florida (6-3, .667)
Tennessee (8-4, .667)
Michigan State (5-3, .625)
Utah State (3-2, .600)
Kentucky (7-5, .583)
UConn (4-3, .571)
Maryland (5-4, .556)
Marquette (5-4, .556)
UCLA (6-5, .545)
Clemson (3-3, .500)
Iowa State (4-4, .500)
Michigan (3-3, .500)
San Diego State (4-4, .500)
Texas Tech (3-3, .500)
West Virginia (4-4, .500)
Missouri (5-6, .455)
Creighton (4-5, .444)
Illinois (4-5, .444)
Louisville (4-5, .444)
Mississippi State (4-5, .444)
Nebraska (4-5, .444)
Oregon (5-7, .417)
Arizona (4-6, .400)
Boise State (2-3, .400) – LAST 4 IN
Kansas (4-6, .400)
Oklahoma (4-6, .400) – LAST 4 IN
Ole Miss (4-6, .400)
Wisconsin (3-5, .375)
Ohio State (4-7, .364)
Vanderbilt (3-6, .333)
Gonzaga (2-5, .286)
Wake Forest (2-5, .286)
Texas (3-8, .273) – LAST 4 IN
Baylor (2-6, .250)
North Carolina (1-8, .111) – LAST 4 IN
Received Consideration
UC-Irvine (1-1, .500)
Arizona State (3-6, .333)
Kansas State (3-6, .333)
Xavier (3-6, .333)
Georgia (3-7, .300) – FIRST 4 OUT
Pitt (3-7, .300)
Arkansas (3-8, .273) – FIRST 4 OUT
UCF (2-7, .222)
BYU (1-4, .200)
Indiana (1-8, .111)
VCU (0-1, .000) – FIRST 4 OUT
SMU (0-4, .000) – FIRST 4 OUT
Cincinnati (0-5, .000)
Heart of Bubblicious (NET #45-55)
45 Memphis (IN)
46 North Carolina (IN)
47 Pitt (OUT)
48 Boise State (IN)
49 Nebraska (IN)
50 UC-San Diego (IN)
51 Cincinnati (OUT)
52 San Diego State (IN)
53 Villanova (OUT)
54 Santa Clara (OUT)
55 Villanova (OUT)
6-Pack That Had a Great Week. …
Creighton, Nebraska, Saint John’s, Tennessee, UC-San Diego, Wisconsin
6-Pack That Had a Rough Week. …
Indiana, Marquette, Morehead State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pitt
Path of Least Resistance to Weakling Wednesday
It appears 7 conference wins (perhaps only 6) will be the number needed for teams to insure themselves a spot in the Big Ten Tournament. The Gophers’ smoothest path to Weakling Wednesday seems obvious. Back-to-back home games Feb. 22 vs. Penn State and Feb. 25 vs. Northwestern (minus out-for-the-season starters Brooks Barnhizer & Jalen Leach) have to be wins. HAVE TO. Win those two and then it’s just a matter of picking up one other win (they’ll be underdogs in the other 5) somewhere along the line.
Conquerors of Champions?
The Gophers hold victories over three opponents leading their respective conferences: Omaha (Summit League); Yale (Ivy League); and Cleveland State (Horizon League). And then there’s Michigan, currently in a 3-way dogfight with Purdue and Michigan State for the Big Ten regular season title.
Nothing But Blue Skies vs. the Big Sky
Three of St. Thomas’ 10 non-conference victories have come vs. the three teams sitting atop the Big Sky standings, co-leaders Northern Colorado & Montana, as well as (tied for) third-place Portland State. Interestingly, in their fourth season of Division 1, the Tommies have yet to defeat a NCAA Tournament qualifier. There’s a decent chance that will change in March with those wins over Northern Colorado/Montana combined with a Summit League win over SL kingpin South Dakota State.
Potential Bid-Stealing Conferences
Several conferences are looking like potential “bid-stealers” if the conference favorite(s) fails to win the conference tournament:
American: if Memphis loses
Atlantic 10: if VCU loses
Big West: if UC-San Diego loses in title game to UC-Irvine
Missouri Valley: if Drake loses
WCC: if someone other than Saint Mary’s or Gonzaga wins it
Beware of the Championship Week bid thieves!!!!
Not A Great Bubble (again) This Season
In recent years, the bubble more often than not has been weak. That's likely the case once again this season. How else can I explain returning middling North Carolina (14-10, 7-5 in a weak ACC) and its 1-9 Quad 1 record to the Field of 68 this week, with “first 4 out” teams VCU (zero NET top 50 wins) and SMU (zero Quad 1 wins) right there waiting in the wings?
And to think two seasons from now, you can bet the farm the tournament will expand to 72 or 76 teams, adding more garbage to the end of the bracket. Yuck!
A Shortlist, But There Are Plenty Others Out There
A compilation of some names thrown out there for a Big Ten job, if one were to become available. I would have no issue with any of these guys.
Bryce Drew (Grand Canyon)
Andy Kennedy (UAB)
Chris Mack (Charleston)
Ben McCollum (Drake)
Niko Medved (Colorado State)
Ryan Odom (VCU)
Micah Shrewsberry (Notre Dame)
There are plenty quality sitting head coaches who’d love a shot at a Big Ten job. It doesn't have to be one of these dudes (in case that needs to be said).
B1G Weakling Wednesday Dropouts – B1G Tournament no-shows?
** The 3 Big Ten teams tracking toward an early end to their 2024-25 season with no invitation to Indianapolis:
#16 Northwestern (4-9)
#17 Washington (3-9)
#18 Penn State (3-10)
The Local NETters
#99 Minnesota (12-12, 4-9 Big Ten)
#114 St. Thomas (19-7, 9-2 Summit League)
Big Ten +/- Power Rankings (Road Wins – Home Losses)
1 Michigan (+5)
2 Purdue (+4)
3 Michigan State (+4)
4 Wisconsin (+3)
5 Maryland (+2)
6 UCLA (+2)
7 Illinois (+2)
8 Ohio State (even)
9 Nebraska (even)
10 Indiana (-1)
11 Oregon (-1)
12 USC (-1)
13 Rutgers (-2)
14 Minnesota (-3)
15 Iowa (-3) – no road wins
16 Northwestern (-3) – no road wins
17 Washington (-4)
18 Penn State (-4) – no road wins
Summit League +/- Power Rankings (Road Wins – Home Losses)
1 Omaha (+4)
2 St. Thomas (+4)
3 South Dakota State (+2)
4 South Dakota (+2)
5 North Dakota State (+1)
6 North Dakota (-2)
7 Kansas City (-3) – no road wins
8 Denver (-4)
9 Oral Roberts (-4) – no road wins
Gophers Week Ahead
Saturday -- @ #71 USC
Tommies Week Ahead
Saturday – host #201 Omaha (for at least a share of Summit League lead)
Gophers Stat Leaders
Dawson Garcia (19.8 points per game), Garcia (7.4 rebounds per game), Lu’Cye Patterson (3.6 assists per game), Femi Odukale (1.4 steals per game), Isaac Asuma (37.5% 3PFG), Parker Fox (1.2 blocks per game)
Tommies Stat Leaders
Miles Barnstable (14.7 points per game), Kendall Blue (4.2 rebounds per game), Drake Dobbs (3.7 assists per game), Nolan Minessale (1.1 steals per game), Ben Oosterbaan (48.8% 3PFG), Minessale (1.1 blocks per game)
NET Kings
#1 Auburn (21-2)
Kinda’ Bubble Cutline
#50 UC-San Diego (18-4)
Stuck in the Middle with You
#182 Longwood (13-9)
Bottom of the Barrel
#364 Mississippi Valley State (1-20)
Deep (College Hoops) Thoughts, by Buzz Studley
Duke is really good, and Cooper Flagg is living up to his billing. But despite being in my preseason Final Four, I now can’t see the Dukies making it to the final weekend. They’ll get tripped up by a veteran team, perhaps even in the second round. Playing in a weak ACC where they’re rarely challenged probably isn’t the best prep for the one-and-done meat grinder of March Madness.
Next Road to Selection Sunday/Field of 68: Sunday, February 16
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