Road to Selection Sunday: Heading Into New Year B1G Looking At Only 5 NCAA Bids

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Road to Selection Sunday: Heading Into New Year, B1G Looking At Only 5 NCAA Tournament Bids
By Selection Sunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/591598?referrer_id=

B1G DISAPPOINTMENT, U.S.A. -- The following is Road to Selection Sunday's final 2015 look at the projected NCAA Tournament field, before the field really starts to take shape with the start of conference play across the country. For the Big Ten, which currently has only five teams projected into the bracket, that conference season begins Dec. 29 when Purdue @ Wisconsin (6 p.m.) and Michigan State @ Iowa (8 p.m.) play a doubleheader on the Big Ten Network.

Despite beating the ACC 8-6 in the ACC/B1G Challenge, the B1G thus far has been something of a disappointment in 2015-16. The conference is a dead-even .500 (24-24) in head-to-head matchups vs. the other Power 6 conferences, percentage-wise ranking behind the Big XII (18-12, 60%), Big East (25-17, 59.5%), and ACC (28-24, 53.8%). The B1G is tied with the Pac 12 (13-13, 50%), and leads only the dreadful SEC (13-31, 29.5%).

There's still plenty of time for the B1G to add to its bid total. The conference usually can count on six or seven tourney bids, but this season it's going to take teams the likes of Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern, and Wisconsin to improve their stock between now and March 13 (Selection Sunday). For now, of those four schools, RTSS has only Indiana (just barely) in the tournament field.

Here's the rest. An * denotes the current conference leader and/or team with the best RPI in a multiple-bid conference.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (December 21)
America East (1): Albany

American (2): Cincinnati, *Tulsa

ACC (7): Duke, Louisville, Miami, *North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia, Wake Forest

Atlantic Sun (1): NJIT

Atlantic 10 (2): *Dayton, George Washington

Big East (5): Butler, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, *Xavier

Big Sky (1): Idaho

Big South (1): High Point

B1G (5): Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, *Michigan State, Purdue

Big XII (7): Baylor, *Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Big West (1): Hawaii

Colonial (1): College of Charleston

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee

Horizon (1): Valparaiso

Ivy (1): Yale

Metro Atlantic (2): *Iona, Monmouth

MAC (1): Eastern Michigan

MEAC (1): North Carolina A&T

Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, *Wichita State

Mountain West (1): New Mexico

Northeast (1): Wagner

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, *Colorado, Oregon, UCLA, Utah

Patriot (1): Army

SEC (5): *Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Southern (1): Chattanooga

Southland (1): Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC (1): Southern

Summit (1): Oral Roberts

Sun Belt (3): *Louisiana-Monroe, Texas-Arlington, UALR

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, *Saint Mary's

WAC (1): Kansas City
______________________________
Last 4 In: Baylor, Indiana, Seton Hall, Wake Forest

First 4 Out: Alabama, Kansas State, Oregon State, UNLV

Others Considered (8): Cal, Davidson, Michigan, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Richmond, Saint Joseph's, USC

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (7): Cincinnati, George Washington, Gonzaga, Monmouth, Northern Iowa, Texas-Arlington, UALR
 

The pressure will be on Northwestern, to get a couple signature wins in conference play, because their non-conference schedule is atrocious. I think they will end up on the wrong side of the bubble for that reason.
 

When is the last time the Big Ten only had 5?
 


When is the last time the Big Ten only had 5?

2010. That year B1G was represented by Michigan State, the Gophers, Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin.

Since then:

7 in 2011;
6 in 2012;
7 in 2013;
6 in 2014; and
7 in 2015.
 


The pressure will be on Northwestern, to get a couple signature wins in conference play, because their non-conference schedule is atrocious. I think they will end up on the wrong side of the bubble for that reason.

Excellent point. Wildcats absolutely must top several of the big boys, some combination of Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue, and perhaps Indiana and/or Iowa. Because of the poor non-conference schedule they won't get in simply by beating the teams they're supposed to beat.
 

Has the Sun Belt ever had 3 bids before?
 


Expect TT to hold on. Baylor, ISU, Kansas, Oklahoma and WVU are all tough teams?
 



2010. That year B1G was represented by Michigan State, the Gophers, Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin.

Since then:

7 in 2011;
6 in 2012;
7 in 2013;
6 and 2014; and
7 in 2015.
Dang it! I knew I should have left that question for an expert. :)
 


Has the Sun Belt ever had 3 bids before?

Looks like they have done it a couple of times.
84-85 season, Alabama-Birmingham, Old Dominion and VCU
85-86 season, Alabama-Birmingham, Old Dominion, Jacksonville and Western Kentucky.
Both seasons, 8 team conference.
 




2011, I think. Not that long ago.

Yeah but two teams have been added since then, as well. That suggests the B1G, even at its "lowest" moment, would still be looking at 6 minimum, given that statistic.
 

I think it is a VERY safe bet that there will be more than 5 teams from the B1G make the NCAA tourney this season. It just isn't likely that so few will be in, given that there are so many teams in the league and there will be plenty of quality win opportunities to go around (most games will be against top-100 opponents, and winning one's share will help to build a resume worth being included even if you only have a few wins over tourney teams). At least one B1G team made the tourney as an at-large with 12 or more losses in each of the past 5 seasons.
 

I think it is a VERY safe bet that there will be more than 5 teams from the B1G make the NCAA tourney this season. It just isn't likely that so few will be in, given that there are so many teams in the league and there will be plenty of quality win opportunities to go around (most games will be against top-100 opponents, and winning one's share will help to build a resume worth being included even if you only have a few wins over tourney teams). At least one B1G team made the tourney as an at-large with 12 or more losses in each of the past 5 seasons.

Agree. It (6 or more) just isn't the sure thing like it's been recently. I'd put my money on Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue.
 




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