Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Spending Their Last Week Off the Bubble?

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BEEN HERE BEFORE, Minn. -- Officially the University of Minnesota men's basketball team won't be near the NCAA tournament cutline until after Wednesday night's expected loss to Ohio State, so its fans should enjoy this one final Monday with a "bubbleless" Gophers. Though the Gophers have all the necessary numbers required of a bubble team hoping to be selected for the NCAA field (#15 RPI, #2 overall SOS, #12 nonconference SOS, more than sufficient RPI top-50 and top-100 wins), a late-season slide (sound familiar?) has the Gophers slipping perilously close to the cutline/chopping block.

As of Monday morning this humble RTSS columnist still has the Gophers, at worst, approximately 10 spots from sitting directly on the bubble, not all bad considering the caliber of basketball the Gophers have produced since the second-half meltdown in Evanston. This week we'll take a closer look at the bubble; where the Gophers sit relative to it, who's close to it, who's on it, and who's still on the fringes, simply trying to get into the Bubblicious conversation.

THE AUTO BIDS (31)
31 conferences receive automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament. These are the current conference leaders, listed in order by RPI: #2 Miami-Florida (ACC); #3 New Mexico (Mountain West); #4 Florida (SEC); #5 Michigan State (Big 10); #6 Kansas (Big 12); #9 Syracuse (Big East); #11 Gonzaga (WCC); #24 Memphis (Conference USA); #25 Belmont (OVC); #27 Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt); #33 Wichita State (MVC); #36 VCU (A-10); #39 Oregon (Pac 12); #46 Louisiana Tech (WAC); #48 Akron (MAC); #60 Bucknell (Patriot); #67 South Dakota State (Summit); #82 Stephen F. Austin (Southland); #84 Valparaiso (Horizon); #87 Stony Brook (America East); #94 Davidson (Southern); #96 Harvard (Ivy); #107 Montana (Big Sky); #116 Long Beach State (Big West); #129 Robert Morris (NEC); #131 Niagara (MAAC); #145 Mercer (Atlantic Sun); #150 Northeastern (Colonial); #190 Norfolk State (MEAC); #192 Southern U (SWAC); and #235 High Point (Big South).

THE LOCKS (12)
Don't expect a free-fall from any of these squads. I feel very comfortable saying these 12 are certainties for the tournament: #1 Duke (ACC); #7 Louisville (Big East); #8 Michigan (Big 10); #10 Arizona (Pac 12); #12 Indiana (Big 10); #13 Colorado State (Mountain West); #14 Marquette (Big East); #16 Georgetown (Big East); #18 Butler (A-10); #20 Kansas State (Big 12); #23 Oklahoma State (Big 12); and #26 Wisconsin (Big 10).

So that gets us to 43 teams in the tournament. ...

SAFELY IN. ... FOR NOW (15)
As of today these 15 teams are comfortably in the tournament field, but in the next two weeks with simply a couple "Ws" could improve to "lock" status or, with a decline, drop to the bubble: #15 GOPHERS (Big 10); #17 Oklahoma (Big 12); #19 UNLV (Mountain West); #21 Colorado (Pac 12); #22 NC State (ACC); #28 Ohio State (Big 10); #29 Illinois (Big 10); #32 Pitt (Big East); #34 San Diego State (Mountain West); #35 LaSalle (A-10); #38 Missouri (SEC); #40 UCLA (Pac 12); #41 Cincinnati (Big East); #45 Saint Louis (A-10); and #50 Notre Dame (Big East).

Now we have 58 of the 68 spots filled. ...

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE (20)
Of these 20, by my estimation 10 would make the tournament: #30 North Carolina (ACC); #42 Boise State (Mountain West); #43 Creighton (MVC); #44 Kentucky (SEC); #47 Saint Mary's (WCC); #49 Iowa State (Big 12); #51 Ole Miss (SEC); #52 Temple (A-10); #53 Cal (Pac 12); #54 Baylor (Big 12); #56 Charlotte (A-10); #57 Villanova (Big East); #58 Saint John's (Big East); #59 Alabama (SEC); #61 Indiana State (MVC); #62 Maryland (ACC); #71 Arizona State (Pac 12); #77 Arkansas (SEC); #79 Virginia (ACC); and #80 Iowa (Big 10).

Of those 10, the first six I'd select are North Carolina, Creighton, Iowa State, Temple, Baylor, and Villanova.

My "last 4 in" would be #59 Alabama, #61 Indiana State, #62 Maryland, and #79 Virginia.

My "first 4 out" would be #42 Boise State, #44 Kentucky, #51 Ole Miss, and #71 Arizona State.

That leaves #47 Saint Mary's, #53 Cal, #56 Charlotte, #58 Saint John's, #77 Arkansas, and #80 Iowa also on the outside looking in, but still near the bubble equator.

LONGSHOTS (9)
I haven't forgotten about these nine squads, but they need a major push in the next couple weeks just to join the conversation: #37 Southern Miss (Conference USA); #55 UMass (A-10); #63 BYU (WCC); #64 Wyoming (Mountain West); #65 Florida State; #73 Stanford (Pac 12); #74 Ohio (MAC); #86 Providence (Big East); and #98 Xavier (A-10).

THIS WEEK'S BUBBLE SLATE
Monday
Rutgers @ Villanova
Tuesday
Florida State @ NC State
Maryland @ Boston College
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech
Southern Illinois @ Creighton
Virginia @ Miami-Florida
Wichita State @ Indiana State
Wyoming @ San Diego State
Wednesday
Air Force @ Boise State
Eastern Michigan @ Ohio
Iowa State @ Baylor
Mississippi State @ Alabama
Providence @ Syracuse
UMass @ Saint Bonaventure
USF @ Saint John's
UTEP @ Southern Miss
Washington State @ Arizona State
Xavier @ Rhode Island
Thursday
BYU @ Saint Mary's
Cal @ Oregon
Georgia @ Arkansas
Iowa @ Nebraska
LaSalle @ Temple
Stanford @ Oregon State
Saturday
Alabama @ LSU
Arkansas @ Florida
Auburn @ Ole Miss
Baylor @ Oklahoma
Boise State @ Fresno State
Cal @ Oregon State
Clemson @ Maryland
Creighton @ Saint Mary's (BracketBusters)
Dayton @ UMass
Iona @ Indiana State (BracketBusters)
Marquette @ Villanova
Missouri @ Kentucky
NC State @ North Carolina
Ohio @ Belmont (BracketBusters)
Providence @ Rutgers
Southern Miss @ Memphis
Stanford @ Oregon
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
UNLV @ Wyoming
VCU @ Xavier
Washington @ Arizona State
Sunday
Florida State @ Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech @ Virginia
Pitt @ Saint John's
Temple @ Charlotte

GOPHERS NONCONFERNCE OPPONENTS IN THE RPI
1. Duke (22-3)
24. Memphis (22-3)
65. Florida State (14-11)
67. South Dakota State (18-7)
73. Stanford (15-11)
78. North Dakota State (18-7)
81. Richmond (15-11)
93. Tennessee State (13-11)
100. USC (12-14)
174. Toledo (12-11)
199. Lafayette (12-14)
236. North Florida (9-17)
247. American (10-15)

GOPHER RESUME NUMBERS
Just in case these numbers become more relevant on Selection Sunday (if the slide continues), currently the Gophers are 4-6 vs. the RPI top 50 (a solid mark), 12-7 vs. the top 100 (a great number), and 5-5 in road/neutral games vs. the RPI top 100 (also solid). It certainly wouldn't hurt to win in Columbus on Wednesday. If the Gophers beat either Ohio State or Indiana -- doesn't seem possible at this point, I know -- I can't envision any scenario where they'd get left out of the tournament. Beating the Buckeyes or Hoosiers would be a final huge notch in the belt, erasing any doubt about their March destination (NCAA or NIT).

BUFFALO WILD WINGS COMMERCIAL ("WE'RE IN?")
**Love the new BWW commercial where it's announced the NCAA Tournament field will expand to 256 teams. Hilarious ("We're in?"), and true 'dat indeed if in the future the NCAA attempts to ruin March Madness by continuing to expand the field. Nothing says "NCAA Tournament" like, for example, Central Michigan (8-16 and currently #256 in the RPI) getting a spot in the tournament.

UPSET SPECIAL
With my current record, I'm goin' big this week; have nothing to lose. ...
Record: 2-9
Streak: L-1
Last Week: Air Force over Colorado State (L -- Colton Iverson & Company beat the AFA, 89-86)
This Week: Providence over Syracuse (Wednesday; a Friars win would snap the nation's longest home winning streak)
 

It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see them beat Ohio State or Indiana. This team is so momentum based, if they get a good feeling in one of those games, without the pressure of feeling like they "should" win, I can see it happening. It seems to me that this team really struggles though when they're in that position of feeling like they "should" win a game and they get heat from the opponent. But like @ IU last year, if they get those good vibes early, a few guys hit some outside shots they weren't hitting before, suddenly this team is very dangerous.

On that note, wouldn't shock me at all to see us finish 7-11 either. I don't even know what to think anymore. I'm just gonna take it a game at a time and just (hopefully) enjoy the ride. I'm done trying to project what this team may or may not do.
 

Monty519 said:
It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see them beat Ohio State or Indiana.
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It would surprise the heck out of me after the lay-down we saw yesterday.

Think our chances are better against OSU than Indiana, simply because the Buckeyes really have only one true scorer. If the Gophers can keep Thomas from going nuts, Wednesday has a chance to be one of those butt-ugly close games that perhaps we can dig out (see Iowa & Wisconsin home games) at the very end. The bigger question is, can we score 60 points? Gophers have hit that mark only twice in the last 8 games.
 

Maybe my lack of surprise they could beat either of those team is because I didn't see a second of yesterday's meltdown haha.

But yeah, feels like eternity ago when we were scoring 76 against MSU, 84 against Illinois, 81 against IU, and 75 against Michigan. You can say our offense is horrible, but at one point, it was at least pretty darn good. Confidence is a crazy thing though. If we were able to find 65 points against OSU, I feel pretty confident we'd win. I just don't think that will happen.
 

SelectionSunday said:
It would surprise the heck out of me after the lay-down we saw yesterday.

Think our chances are better against OSU than Indiana, simply because the Buckeyes really have only one true scorer. If the Gophers can keep Thomas from going nuts, Wednesday has a chance to be one of those butt-ugly close games that perhaps we can dig out (see Iowa & Wisconsin home games) at the very end. The bigger question is, can we score 60 points? Gophers have hit that mark only twice in the last 8 games.
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OSU also isn't great at the 3. A big benefit for us.

Dre will really have his hands full being guarded by Craft though. Hope Rodney can handle Thomas somewhat too.
 


scher215 said:
OSU also isn't great at the 3. A big benefit for us.

Dre will really have his hands full being guarded by Craft though. Hope Rodney can handle Thomas somewhat too.
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This is where his injury will hurt us.
 

mnsports1 said:
This is where his injury will hurt us.
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Agree. For all the knocking Rodney takes he is a very very good perimeter defender. The thing is he is an offensive center, defensive SG/SF with the body of a SF. Do you play him for D and kill your offense or play him for offense and kill your defense. Or you need to get creative and change matchups around like Tubby did against Wisconsin by putting Joe on Evans/Dekker instead of Rodney.
 

scher215 said:
Agree. For all the knocking Rodney takes he is a very very good perimeter defender. The thing is he is an offensive center, defensive SG/SF with the body of a SF. Do you play him for D and kill your offense or play him for offense and kill your defense. Or you need to get creative and change matchups around like Tubby did against Wisconsin by putting Joe on Evans/Dekker instead of Rodney.
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To me it comes down to if he can lift his arm well enough to rebound. If yes, give him big minutes for the D.
 

The only thing I question is why someone would assume losing on the road to Ohio St would push us onto the bubble?!


Don't you people realize this is a FREE WEEK for us. No shame in losing a ROAD game to OSU, who will probably be RPI Top 25 after beating us. And no shame in losing a home game to the #1 ranked team in the country, either.



By this time next week, we just might have 10 losses, with NINE of them coming against teams in the Top 30 of the Sagarin and Ken-Pom rankings.

And possibly 8 of them vs Top 25 RPI teams. And FOUR wins vs that same Top 25.

Illinois and Wisconsin are both on the rise, and at #26 and #29 in the RPI right now, both could easily move up into the Top 25, and both teams we've beaten.


Think about that, 4-8 vs the Top 25. What bubble team can even come close to that?!


After this next week, we'll be #1 in SOS and may never relinquish that ranking the rest of the year?!



Now if we somehow pulled off an upset of IU. We'd move to 5-7 vs the Top 25.


I think we could go 0-2 this week, and STILL maintain a Top 20 RPI rating.


No, the only thing that will get us moving towards the bubble is a loss to PSU, Nebraska , or Purdue.
 



#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
I think we could go 0-2 this week, and STILL maintain a Top 20 RPI rating.
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I agree that the Gophers would likely remain in the RPI top 20, but it will be impossible to go 0-2 this week. We only play once.

Respectfully, even teams with a stellar RPI and resume (like the Gophers have) must start winning (late-season) games at some point. The Gophers will be an interesting case for the Selection Committee if they finish 8-10 or 7-11 with a 1st-round or quarterfinal dump in Chicago. Not saying they'd have no chance to get a bid, but the SC would have to think long & hard about the late-season collapse despite an overall impressive (in terms of bubble teams) resume.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
 

Currently 5 differences with Jerry Palm

For this late in the season that's a significant difference. Usually I'm off by 2 or 3 with Palm and Joe Lunardi this far into February. That tells me 2 things:

(1) The bubble is going to have a plethora of teams with suspect resumes, which is good news for. ...

(2) the Gophers, whose resume looks Titanic compared to most if not all of the bubble teams. I'm now nearly 100% convinced that all the Gophers have to do to make the tournament is go 8-10. Probably doesn't even matter if they do a 1st-round face-plant in Chicago. Can the Gophers win 2 more games in the regular season?

Jerry Palm has Boise State, Cal, Charlotte, Ole Miss and Saint Mary's in the field of 68, in their places I have Alabama, Indiana State, Iowa State, Maryland and Virginia.
 


SelectionSunday said:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Gophers down to a #8 seed in Lundardi's bracket. ... inching closer & closer to that dangerous 11,12 range.

Lunard differs with me on 4. He has Arizona State, Cal, Ole Miss and Saint mary's "in", in their places I have Alabama, Indiana State, Maryland, and Temple.
Click to expand...

I'd take the way that bracket is right now and move forward. Ha.

I don't really have confidence in us beating much of anyone right now, but in the grand scheme of things, that draw would be about the best case scenario for us (assuming a seed somewhere in the 7-10 range). If we assume that's the bracket, and assuming (big assumption given recent play) that we beat CO, Miami is basically the same team that they were last year when we beat them, albeit playing much, much better, so we'd have a chance.

Moving away from my somewhat stupid hypothetical above, I tend to agree with you, SS. Our resume looks wonderful compared with the bubble teams, but the selection committee will certainly notice/take into account that we've looked like a completely unworthy team the last 1.5 months... so if we fall to actually on the bubble, relying purely on our RPI and such may be false confidence given our impressive slide..
 



JDGopher said:
Our resume looks wonderful compared with the bubble teams, but the selection committee will certainly notice/take into account that we've looked like a completely unworthy team the last 1.5 months... so if we fall to actually on the bubble, relying purely on our RPI and such may be false confidence given our impressive slide..
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Agree with you 100%. Couldn't have said it better myself.
 

I'd sure like to see us win one of these next two and get out of the 8/9 line. While it's happened a few times, the odds of getting out of the first week-end aren't good. Frankly, you're better off being a 10/11. I guess either way, we're likely to move off of it by this time next week.
 

Yep, my stess-ometer (and blood pressure) will go down significantly if the Gophers win one of the next two, as improbable as that seems right now. Adding a win @ OSU or a win over IU makes it pretty much impossible for the Selection Committe to leave the Gophers out.

That said, if I were a betting man, I'd bet the farm the Gophers will do the absolute minimum these last 5 games. It's our destiny to have no margin for error heading to the BTT & to sweat out Selection Sunday, even when our talent and resume says we're so much better than that. To that end, the percentages say:

@ OSU (L)
IU (L)
PSU (W)
@ Neb (W)
@ Pur (L)

vs. Nebraska/Northwestern/Purdue (W)
vs. Indiana/Michigan/Michigan State/Wisconsin (L)

Total = 21-12, 9-11 (including BTT)

Give me a hankie to wipe my brow on Selection Sunday.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Yep, my stess-ometer (and blood pressure) will go down significantly if the Gophers win one of the next two, as improbable as that seems right now. Adding a win @ OSU or a win over IU makes it pretty much impossible for the Selection Committe to leave the Gophers out.

That said, if I were a betting man, I'd bet the farm the Gophers will do the absolute minimum these last 5 games. It's our destiny to have no margin for error heading to the BTT & to sweat out Selection Sunday, even when our talent and resume says we're so much better than that. To that end, the percentages say:

@ OSU (L)
IU (L)
PSU (W)
@ Neb (W)
@ Pur (L)

vs. Nebraska/Northwestern/Purdue (W)
vs. Indiana/Michigan/Michigan State/Wisconsin (L)

Total = 21-12, 9-11 (including BTT)

Give me a hankie for Selection Sunday.
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I think Nebraska has a better chance of beating the Gophers than Purdue does. Purdue sucks they might be the second worst team in the Big Ten.
 

Johnnyboy18 said:
I think Nebraska has a better chance of beating the Gophers than Purdue does. Purdue sucks they might be the second worst team in the Big Ten.
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Certainly that could happen. We could flip-flop the W/L for the Nebraska/Purdue season-ending road trip.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Yep, my stess-ometer (and blood pressure) will go down significantly if the Gophers win one of the next two, as improbable as that seems right now. Adding a win @ OSU or a win over IU makes it pretty much impossible for the Selection Committe to leave the Gophers out.

That said, if I were a betting man, I'd bet the farm the Gophers will do the absolute minimum these last 5 games. It's our destiny to have no margin for error heading to the BTT & to sweat out Selection Sunday, even when our talent and resume says we're so much better than that. To that end, the percentages say:

@ OSU (L)
IU (L)
PSU (W)
@ Neb (W)
@ Pur (L)

vs. Nebraska/Northwestern/Purdue (W)
vs. Indiana/Michigan/Michigan State/Wisconsin (L)

Total = 21-12, 9-11 (including BTT)

Give me a hankie to wipe my brow on Selection Sunday.
Click to expand...

If we get in at 9-10 or 9-11 we don't deserve it.
 


station19 said:
If we get in at 9-10 or 9-11 we don't deserve it.
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I understand your frustration, but so says who? The Selection Committtee has a lot more pertinent information at their disposal than any of us do. They'll decide if the Gophers deserve it, none of us will.
 

Johnnyboy18 said:
Who does then? St.Johns?
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I have nooooooooo idea, but we could start with going back to 64 teams.

It's the eye test I guess.
CBS-Logo.jpg
 

SelectionSunday said:
I understand your frustration, but so says who? The Selection Committtee has a lot more pertinent information at their disposal than any of us do. They'll decide if the Gophers deserve it, none of us will.
Click to expand...

There will be 68 teams that make the tournament. That doesn't mean there are 68 teams that deserve it. Interpretation of deserve I guess. Oh well.
 





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