Road to Selection Sunday: For the First Time, Gophers on the Outside Looking In

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Road to Selection Sunday: For the First Time, Gophers on the Outside Looking In
By Selection Sunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/134006?referrer_id=331171

IT's GO TIME, U.S.A. -- It took until mid-February to do it, but much like last season the Gophers have played their way onto the wrong side of the bubble. Now the question is, unlike last season, can the Gophers play their way back to the right side of the bubble?

The answer starts becoming clearer tonight when the Gophers (17-8, 5-7, #60 RPI) have the unenviable task of facing a talented and surely motivated Ohio State (21-4, 9-3, #11) squad coming off a disappointing home loss to Michigan State. Even with a loss tonight the Gophers still will be in the NCAA mix, but losing to the Buckeyes means a win over fellow bubble-boy Northwestern (15-9, 5-7, #42) on Saturday in Evanston becomes mandatory, not an option. Currently I have Northwestern as one of the "last 4 in" the NCAA Tournament and the Gophers as one of the "first 4 out". Gopher fans can only hope those names are flip-flopped at about 8 p.m. Saturday night.

As always, RPI's listed are courtesy of Jerry Palm at CollegeRPI.com.

FIELD OF 68 (2/14/12)
America East (1): Stony Brook (161)

ACC (5): Duke (2), North Carolina (7), Florida State (27), Virginia (34), NC State (50)

Atlantic 10 (4): Temple (18), Saint Louis (22), Xavier (56), Dayton (71)

Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont (79)

Big East (8): Syracuse (1), Marquette (12), Georgetown (13), UConn (20), Louisville (23), Seton Hall (31), Notre Dame (40), West Virginia (41)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (86)

Big South (1): UNC-Asheville (121)

Big Ten (8): Michigan State (4), Ohio State (11), Michigan (14), Indiana (15), Wisconsin (24), Northwestern (42), Illinois (47), Purdue (54)

Big 12 (6): Kansas (5), Baylor 96), Missouri (8), Iowa State (38), Texas (49), Kansas State (63)

Big West (1): Long Beach State (43)

Colonial (1): Drexel (82)

Conference USA (2): Southern Miss (10), Memphis (19)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (92)

Ivy (1): Harvard (37)

Metro Atlantic (1): Iona (53)

Mid-American (1): Akron (59)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (125)

Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State (17), Creighton (29)

Mountain West (3): UNLV (9), San Diego State (21), New Mexico (33)

Northeast (1): LIU (97)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (55)

Pac 12 (2): Cal (36), Arizona (68)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (70)

SEC (5): Kentucky (3), Florida (26), Vanderbilt (30), Alabama (32), Mississippi State (44)

Southern (1): Davidson (72)

Southland (1): Texas-Arlington (116)

SWAC (1): Mississippi Valley State (145)

Summit (1): Oral Roberts (45)

Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee State (39)

West Coast (3): Gonzaga (16), St. Mary's (25), BYU (46)

WAC (1): Nevada (57)
__________________________

Last 4 In: Northwestern (42), Xavier (56), Arizona (68), Dayton (71)

First 4 Out: Miami-Florida (35), Saint Joseph's (48), GOPHERS (60), Washington (61)

Non-BCS At-Larges (9): Gonzaga (16), Memphis (19), San Diego State (21), Saint Louis (22), Creighton (29), New Mexico (33), BYU (46), Xavier (56), Dayton (71)

Others Considered: Colorado State (28), Ole Miss (51), Northern Iowa (52), UCF (58), USF (62), Oregon (66), Arkansas (67), UMass (73), Colorado (74), VCU (83), Cincinnati (93)

Lunardi/SS Differences: Currently ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi and I differ on 3 at-large teams. Lunardi has Cincinnati, Miami-Florida and the Gophers in the Field of 68, in their place I have Dayton, Northwestern and Xavier.

Note: Among the non-BCS conferences, I would consider the following conference leaders for an at-large bid if they failed to win their conference's automatic bid: UNLV (9), Southern Miss (10), Wichita State (17), Temple (18), St. Mary's (25), Harvard (37), Middle Tennessee State (39), Long Beach State (43), Oral Roberts (45), Iona (53), Murray State (55), Nevada (57), Akron (59) & Drexel (82). Translation? They'd get thrown into my at-large pool for at least a "quick look-see" at their resumes. Obviously, some of them (i.e. UNLV, Wichita State, Temple, St. Mary's) will be "locks", anyways.
 

In the end, I think the Gophers will take the place of the Illini. They are falling off the face of the earth...fast.
 

Illinois

I respectfully disagree. All the Illini really have to do to get a bid is win 3 more regular-season conference games. They should be able to manage that with their remaining schedule. Of the Big Ten's bubble teams (also Gophers, Northwestern, Purdue), the Illini easily are sitting the best. They're the only one with wins over the conference's best 2 teams (MSU & OSU), and the win over Gonzaga looks awfully nice, too. If there's a B1G team that gets in at 8-10, it's most likely gonna' be Illinois.
 

I agree that if they can get to 8-10, they will be in. But they are just flat right now. As we all know, or at least it has been said, the selection committee likes teams that are playing well down the stretch. As of now, the Illini don't fit that bill.

What do you think it takes the Gophs to get in? With a win tonight, they will have some really nice wins (Indiana, OSU, Illini, Northwestern) I added Illini and NW because they are currently ahead of us as far as having a better chance of making the tourney.


I say if they win tonight, the Gophs could sneak in at 8-10 in conference and would be a lock if they reach 9-9.

After this game they have the following:

@NW
Mich St
Indiana
@Wisc
Nebraska

So, even if they can't pull it off tonight, they still have 4 games that could get them big wins and would probably have a nice chance for a good win in the B1G tourney. Will it be hard? Yes. Can they do it? I really think so.

To even have this conversation after Trevor got hurt is awesome in my mind.
 

9-9 should be a lock for the Gophers, no matter what happens in Indy. To be considered at 8-10, I think it'll require a win over Ohio State or Michigan State + probably avoiding a "1 and out" at BTT.
 


sidefx182 said:
I agree that if they can get to 8-10, they will be in. But they are just flat right now. As we all know, or at least it has been said, the selection committee likes teams that are playing well down the stretch. As of now, the Illini don't fit that bill.

A losing conf. record will not buy a ticket to the dance.
Click to expand...
 

SS... Do you think our RPI would improve even with a loss today due to Ohio Stat's strong RPI? I seem to remember our RPI holding strong before after we played but lost, to a good team. Although at home, could hurt more. Just curious.
 

I'd guess it will stay about the same.

Generally speaking, if the Gophers get to 8-10 with a RPI somewhere in the 50's, I'll feel like we have a fighter's chance heading to Indy. And by fighter's chance, that probably means getting to the semis.

The goal remains 9-9 (NCAA lock city), but unfortunately I don't think that's a path the Gophers are on.
 

Take out bama.. losses to LSU and South Carolina recently plus their 2 best players are suspended for the Florida game tonight. A game they must have to add to their resume. 5-5 right now in a very weak SEC won't even get you on the bubble IMO. I'd put MN in over Alabama
 



SelectionSunday said:
I'd guess it will stay about the same.

Generally speaking, if the Gophers get to 8-10 with a RPI somewhere in the 50's, I'll feel like we have a fighter's chance heading to Indy. And by fighter's chance, that probably means getting to the semis.
Click to expand...

How about this scenario.. 8-10 in conference. Win one game in the conference tourney. Have an RPI of 60-64... decent chance this year, assuming one of the wins is a 'good win' (i.e., @WISC or OSU/MSU)?
 

Gopher Warrior said:
How about this scenario.. 8-10 in conference. Win one game in the conference tourney. Have an RPI of 60-64... decent chance this year, assuming one of the wins is a 'good win' (i.e., @WISC or OSU/MSU)?
Click to expand...

GW, decent chance sounds about right. I'd probably put that scenario in the 40% range.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
How about this scenario.. 8-10 in conference. Win one game in the conference tourney. Have an RPI of 60-64... decent chance this year, assuming one of the wins is a 'good win' (i.e., @WISC or OSU/MSU)?
Click to expand...

I think we have to win two in the conference tourney for us to have a chance. In that scenario, our first game in the tourney would probably be NW or Iowa, which wouldn't be a good win as far as RPI goes. Our second game would be against one of the top four.
 

IMO a team with a losing conference record should not get in without winning their conference tourney. However, with the possibility of expanding it to 96 at some point that will become common place.
 



notagopherfan said:
5-5 right now in a very weak SEC won't even get you on the bubble IMO.
Click to expand...

Alabama is certainly a bubble team, but despite their SEC affiliation (as you put it) they still have a better overall and nonconference strength of schedule than the Gophers. Alabama overall SOS is 22, nonconference SOS is 48. Gophers' overall SOS is 62, nonconference SOS is 193. And LSU (#75 RPI) isn't a bad loss for the Tide. South Carolina (#176) is Tide's only "bad loss" (RPI 101+), Gophers have two (both Iowa).

Gophers have more top-50 wins (3 to 1). I still like Alabama a little more at this point, but not by a lot. Both teams certainly have work to do.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Alabama is certainly a bubble team, but despite their SEC affiliation (as you put it) they still have a better overall and nonconference strength of schedule than the Gophers. Alabama overall SOS is 22, nonconference SOS is 48. Gophers' overall SOS is 62, nonconference SOS is 193. And LSU (#75 RPI) isn't a bad loss for the Tide. South Carolina (#176) is Tide's only "bad loss" (RPI 101+), Gophers have two (both Iowa).

Gophers have more top-50 wins (3 to 1). I still like Alabama a little more at this point, but not by a lot. Both teams certainly have work to do.
Click to expand...

I consider LSU a bad loss though they did beat marquette in the Non Conference they haven't done much in the weak SEC. Their 4 conference wins have come against teams aren't above 500 in the conference. Granted only 4 of 12 SEC teams are above 500 in conference which are the 4 that definetly in barring a complete meldown the last 6 games. But LSU and Iowa are sort of similar teams. Top 50 RPI wins are very important.. though I don't know if Michigan state had one last year and they got in at 19-14 and 9-9 in conference. They didn't beat a top 25 team all year I don't think. They get in on Reputation last year? Tubby has a good reputation as well, that could be a factor?
 

SS, over the years do you have a general idea of how many spots upset winners of the minor conference tournaments get, "stealing" a berth that a BCS school would have gotten? How much am I going to have to root against these Cinderellas?
 

notagopherfan said:
I consider LSU a bad loss though they did beat marquette in the Non Conference they haven't done much in the weak SEC. Their 4 conference wins have come against teams aren't above 500 in the conference. Granted only 4 of 12 SEC teams are above 500 in conference which are the 4 that definetly in barring a complete meldown the last 6 games. But LSU and Iowa are sort of similar teams. Top 50 RPI wins are very important.. though I don't know if Michigan state had one last year and they got in at 19-14 and 9-9 in conference. They didn't beat a top 25 team all year I don't think. They get in on Reputation last year? Tubby has a good reputation as well, that could be a factor?
Click to expand...

Michigan State had 5 top-50 wins last season (#32 Washington, #39 Penn State, #48 Illinois) that included 2 top-25 wins (#11 Purdue, #16 Wisconsin). If the Gophers make the NCAA's it won't be because of Tubby Smith's reputation. If reputation meant something a coach like Jim Boeheim would never have been left out on a couple occasions when his team landed on the wrong side of the bubble.
 

Mulligan said:
SS, over the years do you have a general idea of how many spots upset winners of the minor conference tournaments get, "stealing" a berth that a BCS school would have gotten? How much am I going to have to root against these Cinderellas?
Click to expand...

This is a general guess, but I'd say it's usually in the neighborhood of 3-5 bids that get stolen. This year that number could be a little higher because there's a lot of quality non-BCS teams who'll steal bids if they fail to win their conference tourney.
 

Illinois is tanking. I think they will play themselves out of it.. they've lost 6 out 7, rumors of firing the coach.. they have a lot of talent on paper but are a major disappointment.
 


SelectionSunday said:
We're in agreement on that.
Click to expand...

If Illinois loses out, I assume they'd be out of the tourney? How bad of a colapse would it have to be for that to happen? Not sure of their remaining schedule, but as the Gophers showed last year, early success combined with a free fall doesn't get you far.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I'd guess it will stay about the same.

Generally speaking, if the Gophers get to 8-10 with a RPI somewhere in the 50's, I'll feel like we have a fighter's chance heading to Indy. And by fighter's chance, that probably means getting to the semis.

The goal remains 9-9 (NCAA lock city), but unfortunately I don't think that's a path the Gophers are on.
Click to expand...

Time to change the path tonight. It's about time we that score a major upset on our home floor.
 


so would you say OSU, MSU, Wisc, Michigan and Indiana are locks. Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota and Purdue being outside looking in. I consider all 4 of those Bubble teams. The big Ten could get 5 or 7 teams depending on how it plays out?
 


notagopherfan said:
so would you say OSU, MSU, Wisc, Michigan and Indiana are locks. Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota and Purdue being outside looking in. I consider all 4 of those Bubble teams. The big Ten could get 5 or 7 teams depending on how it plays out?
Click to expand...

That's exactly how I see it. 5 B1G locks barring complete collapse (the ones you mentioned) and 4 B1G bubblers (Ill, Minn, NW, Pur). Illinois has the best path & easily has the best resume to become the 6th team. If things fall perfectly for the B1G (a couple bubble teams get hot in Indy) the number could reach 8, but in the end I think 7 bids is most likely scenario.
 

bga1 said:
Time to change the path tonight. It's about time we that score a major upset on our home floor.
Click to expand...

Spot on, BGA. Major upsets happen everywhere else across the country, why not here? Seems like all our best wins now occur away from home. Let's flip that tonight.
 

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