Road to Selection Sunday: Field of 68 (at the bottom) Not Looking So Great

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Road to Selection Sunday: Field of 68 (at the bottom) Not Looking So Great
By Selection Sunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/132003?referrer_id=331171

Stop me if you've heard this before. ... "The (NCAA Tournament) bubble is looking exceedingly weak."

If you've heard me say that quite a bit in the last several years, well, you're not imagining things. For what I believe is the third straight season, it appears the bottom of the NCAA Tournament field will be littered with at-large resumes that would not have sniffed the bracket 5-6 years ago. Even if the tournament field still consisted of 65 teams, I'd be saying the same thing.

You thought UAB getting in last year was a farce? Wait 'til you see some of the resumes sure to go dancing in early March. How bad is it? Currently there are at least five at-large teams in my field whose current resumes, shall we say, leave a lot to be desired. I expect that number to increase in the coming weeks.

Some of those who think the #40 Gophers' resume is lacking pop (I wouldn't disagree) will feel better about the Gophers' accomplishments if they take a close look at the resumes of a Colorado State (#18), a Memphis (#26), a New Mexico (#38), a Xavier (#50) or, especially, a Washington (#73). You're likely to be unimpressed, but those five are prime examples of teams who for various reasons are good enough to be selected at this point of the season. That I'm even considering teams like NC State (#63) and LaSalle (#66) is more evidence of a weak bubble.

And yet, most coaches -- like the lapdogs they are -- continue to line up behind Jim Boeheim, pushing for additional tournament expansion so that more "quality and deserving teams" can experience the tournament. What they fail to mention is the real (and selfish) reason they want more expansion. ... more bids increases their chances of adding to their already inflated media guide bios, while at the same time decreasing their chances of getting fired for not making the NCAA Tournament.

OK, it's time to get off my soapbox. All that said, no matter the number of teams that make the tournament, the goal always has remained the same. Be one of the (now 68) teams to hear your name announced on Selection Sunday and -- like Lloyd Christmas from "Dumb and Dumber" -- you've got a chance. All you need is a chance. Just ask VCU. One of the last teams chosen was one of the last four teams playing.

Now, on to our latest Field of 68 projection. RPI's (courtesy of Jerry Palm at CollegeRPI.com) listed are through games played Tuesday, Jan. 31. An asterisk denotes the team with the best conference record or, in the cases of a tie, the team with the best RPI in a multiple-bid league.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (2/1/12)
AMERICA EAST (1): Stony Brook (173)

ACC (4): Duke (2), *North Carolina (10), Florida State (24), Virginia (39)

ATLANTIC SUN (1): Belmont (92)

ATLANTIC 10 (5): Temple (13), Saint Louis (43), Xavier (50), *UMass (57), Dayton (60)

BIG EAST (8): *Syracuse (1), Marquette (9), Georgetown (14), Louisville (27), UConn (28), West Virginia (29), Seton Hall (33), Notre Dame (64)

BIG SKY (1): Weber State (91)

BIG SOUTH (1): UNC-Asheville (124)

B1G (8): Michigan State (5), *Ohio State (6), Michigan (17), Indiana (22), Wisconsin (23), Illinois (30), GOPHERS (40), Purdue (52)

BIG 12 (5): Baylor (3), *Kansas (8), Mizzou (12), Iowa State (41), Kansas State (45)

BIG WEST (1): Long Beach State (34)

COLONIAL (1): George Mason (100)

CONFERENCE USA (2): *Southern Miss (11), Memphis (26)

HORIZON (1): Cleveland State (54)

IVY (1): Harvard (44)

METRO ATLANTIC (1): Iona (53)

MID-AMERICAN (1): Akron (58)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (115)

MISSOURI VALLEY (2): *Creighton (16), Wichita State (32)

MOUNTAIN WEST (4): *UNLV (7), Colorado State (18), San Diego State (20), New Mexico (38)

NORTHEAST (1): LIU (106)

OHIO VALLEY (1): Murray State (35)

PAC 12 (2): *Cal (31), Washington (73)

PATRIOT (1): Bucknell (72)

SEC (6): *Kentucky (4), Florida (15), Vandy (25), Alabama (36), Mississippi State (37), Arkansas (47)

SOUTHERN (1): Davidson (68)

SOUTHLAND (1): Texas-Arlington (139)

SWAC (1): Mississippi Valley State (154)

SUMMIT (1): Oral Roberts (51)

SUN BELT (1): Middle Tennessee State (46)

WEST COAST (2): *St. Mary's (19), Gonzaga (21)

WAC (1): Nevada (59)
________________________________
Last 4 In: Seton Hall (33), New Mexico (38), Dayton (60), Washington (73)

Other "First 4" Participants: UNC-Asheville (124), Texas-Arlington (139), Mississippi Valley State (154), Stony Brook (173)

First 4 Out: Ole Miss (42), BYU (48), NC State (63), LaSalle (66)

Non-BCS At-Larges (10): Temple (13), Colorado State (18), San Diego State (20), Gonzaga (21), Memphis (26), Wichita State (32), New Mexico (38), Saint Louis (43), Xavier (50), Dayton (60)

Next Field of 68 Projection: Monday, Feb. 13.
 

If the tournament expanded any more than it already has, that would be sad. We'd get used to it, like virtually everything else in sports that changes, but still, I just fail to see the need beyond like you said, coaches putting it on their resumes.

Of course, it also throws out that chance for a team to completely alter their average season and turn it into a decent one by stringing together a couple wins in the tournament and leave good vibes going into their next seasons.
 

It's always nice to have your team actually playing good basketball if they make it to the tournament. The current expanded format makes that difficult. I noted that Selection had about five real clinkers, and also noted that number is only one more than the additional teams beyond the near perfect number of 64. Without expansion, maybe the bubble is not so weak.

I will offer some speculation about the weak bubble:

The overall game is weaker because of early draft entries, lots of migrating between programs, and rosters turning over too quickly for teams to gel over time. Hoops is a team game and time together makes teams better.

Power teams play schedules that manage their way into the tournament, rather than appropriately challenging themselves. While they manage the schedule, resumes look weak because they don't schedule enough games.

Too many people in the game looking for the next move, whether it's coaches moving up the ladder or players more focused on the pros than their current team. More patience and continuity would help create more quality teams.

Tangentially, I see this year's Gopher squad playing better basketball than they have in many years. The offense has more flow, they share the ball, and by and large they are getting good looks (even if not making enough of them). The defense has been better, and the three is not killing us like it has in the past. I am sure someone will refute that with actual data, but it appears to my eye that the play is better. Obviously, what they are lacking is beef in the middle that is really hurting them. With the exception of Iowa and Purdue, they have come ready to play. All this makes them a stronger bubble than most of us appreciate.
 

I think we'll see the tournament expanded to at least 96 within the next 5 years, but until that day I'll enjoy it while the regular season still at least means a little something.
 

I say, back it off to 32 teams. Period.
 



Dr.Don said:
I say, back it off to 32 teams. Period.
Click to expand...
Do you keep the automatic qualifiers for all conferences? If so, I think that only leaves one at-large bid. I do agree that expansion is getting out of control. I don't consider a team to have made the tournament unless they are actually in the 64 team field after the absurd extra play-in games. I also don't consider a team to have won a tournament game unless they make it to the 32 team field. There should be two ways to get a tournament win: beat a very good team or beat a mediocre team that you earned the right to play by earning a high seed. A team that wouldn't have been in the tournament when it was 64 teams shouldn't be able to claim credit for a tournament win when they play another team who wouldn't have been in that field either.
 

There are 340+ teams in D 1 at present. I believe there was a much smaller number 15-20 years ago. Maybe someone can clarify that.
 

Currently there are 344 Division I teams. 15 years ago (1996-97 season) there were 305.
 



It absolutely boggles the mind that there are so many people who want to ruin one of the greatest tournaments in all of sports.
 






BBQ Platypus said:
It absolutely boggles the mind that there are so many people who want to ruin one of the greatest tournaments in all of sports.
Click to expand...

+1. It would ruin it for the casual fans. And as excited as you are about paying big $$ to see Wofford and Bucknell now, imagine doing so knowing that those games means even less, basically nothing! There will be only two types of BCS teams, those that are in the NCAA tournament and those that are completely awful.
 


howeda7 said:
. ... There will be only two types of BCS teams, those that are in the NCAA tournament and those that are completely awful.
Click to expand...

That's a great way to put it! Here's looking at you, Oregon State & USF (though the Beavers & Bulls finally are getting better).
 

BBQ Platypus said:
It absolutely boggles the mind that there are so many people who want to ruin one of the greatest tournaments in all of sports.
Click to expand...

Because the people who want it aren't concerned with the negatives that come to the fans or whatever. They are only concerned with either their pocketbook, or, just plain holding onto their job.

I will say though, it's not like it's ALL bad to expand the tournament. You get more fanbases involved, obviously more chances for fun upsets, etc. But I don't think that outweighs the benefits of keeping it the same personally.
 

Differences with Jerry Palm's field

As a reference point, Jerry Palm (CollegeRPI.com) also updated his bracket this morning, and we have 3 differences.

He has Northwestern, Oklahoma and Ole Miss in his current bracket.

In their place I have Arkansas, UMass and Washington. It should be noted that I have UMass (5-2) as the A-10's automatic qualifier, while he has Temple (4-2) as the AQ.

Palm's last 4 in = Colorado State, Northwestern, Notre Dame & Oklahoma.

Palm's first 4 out = BYU, NC State, UMass & Washington.
 

It would seem Northwestern has a few too many losses to really be in the field right now IMO. They've played a tough schedule though, to their credit, but those Top 25/50/100 RPI records need to be beefed up. They've played a lot of high RPI teams tight, but they're not beating them.
 

Northwestern's certainly not out of the picture if it can string together 2-3 wins, but at this point I couldn't justify putting a 2-6 team (in conference) in the field no matter what their RPI or strength of schedule is. Still gotta' win games.
 

I have to agree with SS having Washington in. They say the don't count conference bids, but they'll at least count to 2.
 

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