Road to Selection Sunday: December Doldrums Soon Will Give Way To Big Ten Season

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Road to Selection Sunday: December Doldrums Soon Will Give Way To Big Ten Season
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/320628?referrer_id=388419

DECEMBER DOLDRUMS, U.S.A. -- The least interesting month of the college basketball season is in full swing, but fear not folks the fun stuff (conference play) is right around the corner. To help bridge the gap between now and the Gophers' Big Ten opener Jan. 2 (the Gophers may be catching Michigan at exactly the right time), here are some odds and ends from what's happened so far this 2013-14 season.

For starters, let's take a gander at RTSS's "Field of 68 projection 2.0", our first projection since early October. Please note that this projection is a combo platter, based partially on what teams have accomplished (who ya' played, where ya' played 'em, who ya' beat, who ya' lost to) and partially trying to project ahead (predicting future results). This will be the last such projection of that nature. Starting with the next projection (date TBD) it'll be all about results up to that point of the season.

Teams' current RPIs are listed in parentheses.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (12/16/13)
America East (1): Albany (145)
American (3): Connecticut (13), Memphis (24), Louisville (65)
ACC (5): Syracuse (5), North Carolina (16), Pitt (26), Virginia (54), Duke (63)
Atlantic Sun (1): Mercer (56)
Atlantic 10 (4): Massachusetts (1), Dayton (25), George Washington (31), VCU (53)
Big East (4): Villanova (7), Butler (36), Creighton (55), Georgetown (74)
Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (62)
Big South (1): Winthrop (68)
Big Ten (6): Wisconsin (2), Ohio State (14), Michigan State (23), Iowa (32), Illinois (45), Indiana (90)
Big XII (6): Baylor (3), Kansas (4), Oklahoma State (11), Iowa State (18), Texas (34), Oklahoma (39)
Big West (1): UCSB (37)
Colonial (1): Drexel (35)
Conference USA (2): Southern Miss (28), UAB (58)
Horizon (1): Green Bay (47)
Ivy (1): Harvard (22)
Metro Atlantic (1): Manhattan (77)
MAC (1): Toledo (50)
MEAC (1): North Carolina Central (119)
Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State (12)
Mountain West (3): San Diego State (15), New Mexico (20), Boise State (52)
Northeast (1): Bryant (57)
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (44)
Pac 12 (5): Oregon (6), Arizona (8), Colorado (9), UCLA (42), Arizona State (88)
Patriot (1): Bucknell (51)
SEC (5): Missouri (19), Florida (30), LSU (33), Arkansas (41), Kentucky (43)
Southern (1): Elon (128)
Southland (1): Oral Roberts (76)
SWAC (1): Jackson State (126)
Summit (1): North Dakota State (29)
Sun Belt (1): Louisiana (49)
West Coast (4): BYU (21), Saint Mary's (10), Gonzaga (17), Pacific (27)
WAC (1): New Mexico State (67)

Last 4 In: UAB (58), Georgetown (74), Arizona State (88), Indiana (90)

First 4 Out: Princeton (38), Ole Miss (40), Missouri State (60), Saint Louis (61)

Others Considered: Saint John's (46), GOPHERS (59), SMU (71), Virginia Tech (73), Stanford (78), Indiana State (102), Cincinnati (105), Florida State (106), Clemson (110)

New to the Field (22): Albany, Arkansas, Bucknell, Butler, Dayton, Drexel, Eastern Washington, George Washington, Illinois, Jackson State, Louisiana, Mercer, North Carolina Central, Oklahoma, Oral Roberts, Pacific, Pitt, Saint Mary's, Texas, UAB, UCSB, Winthrop

Dropped Out (22): Cal Poly, Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Florida Gulf Coast, Indiana State, La Salle, Lafayette, Marquette, Maryland, Michigan, Morgan State, North Dakota, Northwestern State, Notre Dame, Purdue, Saint John's, Stanford, Stony Brook, Tennessee, Texas Southern, Towson, Western Kentucky

THE UNBEATENS
There are 14 remaining undefeated teams in college basketball. Who they are, and who they "got next":
1. Arizona -- Southern U (Thursday)
2. Connecticut -- Stanford (Wednesday)
3. Iowa State -- vs. George Mason @ Diamond Head Classic (Sunday)
4. Massachusetts -- @ Ohio (Wednesday)
5. Missouri -- vs. Illinois (Saturday)
6. Ohio State -- Delaware (Wednesday)
7. Oregon -- Cal-Irvine (Tuesday)
8. Pitt -- vs. Cincinnati (Tuesday)
9. Saint Mary's -- American (Thursday)
10. Syracuse -- High Point (Friday)
11. Toledo -- @ Arkansas State (Tuesday)
12. Villanova -- Rider (Saturday)
13. Wichita State -- @ Alabama (Tuesday)
14. Wisconsin -- Prairie View A&M (Dec. 28)

5 PLEASANT SURPRISES
1. Dayton (8-2) -- 3rd place finish @ Maui included wins over Gonzaga, Cal
2. George Washington (9-1) -- wins vs. Creighton, Maryland
3. Oklahoma (9-1) -- was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Lon Kruger
4. Pacific (7-1) -- won @ Utah State (tough place to win), only loss @ Oregon
5. Princeton (8-1) -- only loss was by 3 points to Butler; overcame 20-point 2nd half deficit to win @ Penn State

5 DISAPPOINTING DEBBIE DOWNERS
1. Florida Gulf Coast (3-4) -- 4 double-digit losses for last year's tournament darlings
2. Kentucky (8-3) -- all that talk about 40-0? Lost its 3 most significant games (MSU, Baylor, North Carolina)
3. La Salle (5-5) -- with a lot returning from last year's Sweet 16 dquad, Explorers perhaps season's biggest bust
4. Marquette (6-4) -- in fairness, Warriors have played a difficult schedule
5. Michigan (6-4) -- disappointing to this point, yes, but don't expect the Wolverines to stay down

EXEMPT TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONS
These schools earned championships in some of the more significant exempt tournaments. There are two exempt tournaments of note remaining, the Las Vegas Classic (spearheaded by UNLV) and the Diamond Head Classic, which features two of the remaining unbeatens (Iowa State & Saint Mary's). We'll break down the championships by conference.

American (2) -- Connecticut (2K Sports), Memphis (Old Spice)
ACC (4) -- Maryland (Paradise Jam), Pitt (Legends), Syracuse (Maui), Virginia (Corpus Christi Challenge)
Atlantic 10 (1) -- Massachusetts (Charleston)
Big East (1) -- Villanova (Battle 4 Atlantis)
Conference USA (2) -- Charlotte (Puerto Rico Tip-Off), Louisiana Tech (Gulf Coast Showcase)
Big Ten (2) -- Michigan State (Coaches vs. Cancer), Wisconsin (Cancun Challenge)
Ivy (1) -- Harvard (Great Alaska Shootout)
Missouri Valley (1) -- Wichita State (CBE Hall of Fame)
Mountain West (1) -- San Diego State (Wooden Legacy)
Ohio Valley (1) -- Belmont (Hall of Fame Tip-Off)
Pac 12 (1) -- Arizona (NIT Season Tip-Off)
SEC (2) -- Missouri (Las Vegas Invitational), Ole Miss (Barclay's Center)
 

If you're going to list FGCU as a downer you might as well list La Salle as well. Made the Sweet 16 last year and also stinky so far this year.
 



But in La Salle's defense, they were pretty heavily reliant on Ramon Galloway who is no longer on the team. Just goes to show you how fleeting life at the top of college basketball can be for certain teams - just like Jenga, if you take out the wrong piece to the puzzle your team can collapse even if you don't think it will.
 


The Illini and Mizzou hooking up this weekend in St. Louis for their annual tilt. My guess is the Tigers stay unbeaten.
Now that would be cool if the Gophers were involved in a such a game. (Of course I think that every year when these two play each other.)

Wichita State humming right along under Mr. Marshall. Took care of the SEC part of the schedule. Rest of the year doesn't look very daunting. They could stay unbeaten for a long stretch.
 

OSUfan said:
If you're going to list FGCU as a downer you might as well list La Salle as well. Made the Sweet 16 last year and also stinky so far this year.
Click to expand...

Don't read a comment before making a reply to it. That takes too much time.
 

Undefeated ramblings

fan of Ray Williams said:
Wichita State humming right along under Mr. Marshall. Took care of the SEC part of the schedule. Rest of the year doesn't look very daunting. They could stay unbeaten for a long stretch.
Click to expand...

The Shockers are really good. It's difficult to do what they're doing. ... for a mid-major to follow a Final Four season with perhaps an even better one. I really like the Baker kid.

Am keeping my eyes on Toledo. If the Rockets win their next two home games vs. Cleveland State and Coppin State, they'll head to Lawrence, KS, undefeated for a Dec. 30 matchup with the Jayhawks.

Pitt was exposed by Cincinnati last night as the fraud they are. Pitt's a program I think is on the decline. We'll see.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The Shockers are really good. It's difficult to do what they're doing. ... for a mid-major to follow a Final Four season with perhaps an even better one. I really like the Baker kid.

Am keeping my eyes on Toledo. If the Rockets win their next two home games vs. Cleveland State and Coppin State, they'll head to Lawrence, KS, undefeated for a Dec. 30 matchup with the Jayhawks.

Pitt was exposed by Cincinnati last night as the fraud they are. Pitt's a program I think is on the decline. We'll see.
Click to expand...

5 days later the, hopefully only once beaten, Aztecs make a visit. That should be a dandy. (Fisher must be in his 90's by now.)
 



SelectionSunday said:
The Shockers are really good. It's difficult to do what they're doing. ... for a mid-major to follow a Final Four season with perhaps an even better one. I really like the Baker kid.

Am keeping my eyes on Toledo. If the Rockets win their next two home games vs. Cleveland State and Coppin State, they'll head to Lawrence, KS, undefeated for a Dec. 30 matchup with the Jayhawks.

Pitt was exposed by Cincinnati last night as the fraud they are. Pitt's a program I think is on the decline. We'll see.
Click to expand...

Wichita State really underachieved in the regular season last year. They had Ron Baker injured most of the season and didn't put him back into the starting lineup until the tournament. That one addition (and reducing the minutes of some lesser players as a result) helped their team take off. Obviously they're not going to underachieve the regular season this year provided they avoid the injury bug that bit them last year with Baker as well as Carl Hall. They should end up with a pretty high seed this year for someone with the teams they have on their schedule (a 5 seed at least I think is likely).

The thing is though they don't have quite as much talent this year as they did last year when they were healthy. They will get a better seed, but the target is going to be on them this year and it's going to be tough for them to try to replicate what they did last year. Not saying they can't get to the F4 again, as they have some really nice pieces with Early, Baker, Cotton is underrated and very good, and Van Vleet is solid. Armstead and Hall were really good for them last year and not really entirely replaceable at that level with their solid contributions on both ends of the court in a number of areas of the game. Will be interesting to see how things shake out with them this year. They really did peak at the end of the year last year and legitimately were playing like a top-10 team - probably a top-5 team in that tournament - so people who don't think they're a legitimate top-10 team this year are going out on a pretty thin limb even though the teams on their schedule aren't necessarily very good.
 

But Toledo isn't a team that I would think to watch out for. If Pitt is a fraud, so is Toledo.
 

I'm curious as to what your reasoning is to keeping Indiana in the field for now?? They are 93rd in the RPI, have a weak OOC schedule, have beaten no one, nearly lost to Long Island, etc. I understand the projection aspect of it, but if you move Michigan to the "Dropped Out" list without regard for projection, I'm not sure how you can leave Indiana in the tourney field. Frankly, if you were to project, I'd bet sums of money that Michigan finishes ahead of Indiana in both the Big Ten and the RPI by the end of the season.

You know more than I, but including a middling Indiana team seems puzzling. Indiana's best win is over RPI #134 and they have a loss to RPI #127. I'm not sure they're that good, and I really don't think they're as good as Michigan.
 

OSUfan said:
But Toledo isn't a team that I would think to watch out for. If Pitt is a fraud, so is Toledo.
Click to expand...

Very well may be true. I'm picking on Pitt because they've been a good program pretty much everyone is aware of.
 



tjgopher said:
I'm curious as to what your reasoning is to keeping Indiana in the field for now?? They are 93rd in the RPI, have a weak OOC schedule, have beaten no one, nearly lost to Long Island, etc. I understand the projection aspect of it, but if you move Michigan to the "Dropped Out" list without regard for projection, I'm not sure how you can leave Indiana in the tourney field. Frankly, if you were to project, I'd bet sums of money that Michigan finishes ahead of Indiana in both the Big Ten and the RPI by the end of the season.

You know more than I, but including a middling Indiana team seems puzzling. Indiana's best win is over RPI #134 and they have a loss to RPI #127. I'm not sure they're that good, and I really don't think they're as good as Michigan.
Click to expand...

All valid points, TJ. I agree with you that Michigan is better & much more likely to make a move than Indiana. What it came down to is at this early juncture I decided not to include anyone in the field with a RPI south of 100. If I had decided to do that I would have included both Michigan and Florida State, and maybe Cincinnati.

It'll all come out in the wash once these projections are based strictly on performance, which they will be from now forward.
 

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