Road to Selection Sun: MTSU Potential Bid Stealer after Losing to FIU/Richard Pitino

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Road to Selection Sunday: MTSU Potential Bid Stealer after Losing to FIU/Richard Pitino

By SelectionSunday
Gophers Still a "Lock" For Tourney

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/237337?referrer_id=331171

LIL' RICKY, Minn. -- The only significant development over the weekend with regards to the Field of 68 was Middle Tennessee State's semifinal loss to Richard Pitino's FIU squad in the semifinals of the Sun Belt Tournament. MTSU finishes the regular season with a #28 RPI and a 28-5 record. The loss puts the Blue Raiders squarely on the bubble. They currently are 0-2 vs. the RPI top 50 and 2-3 vs. the RPI top 100. The top-100 wins came against #56 Ole Miss (a bubble team) and at #100 UCF. MTSU's strength of schedule numbers are solid for a mid-major. ... an overall SOS of 128 and a nonconference SOS of 11.

Otherwise, Championship Week went smoothly for bubble teams. Belmont won the Ohio Valley Tournament, and Creighton/Wichita State finished 1-2 as expected at Arch Madness in Saint Louis. On the "lock" front, only Temple sealed a bid. The Owls accomplished that with a win over VCU. We're still sitting at 13 available at-large bids heading into the meat of Championship Week. Teams that have already earned their conference's automatic bid are noted in ALL CAPS bold.

Automatic Bid/Highest Remaining Seed in Conference Tournament (31)
#2 New Mexico (Mountain West)
#4 Miami-Florida (ACC)
#5 Indiana (B1G)
#6 Florida (SEC)
#7 Kansas (Big 12)
#9 Georgetown (Big East)
#10 Gonzaga (West Coast)
#16 Memphis (Conference USA)
#18 BELMONT (Ohio Valley)
#25 CREIGHTON (Missouri Valley)
#27 Saint Louis (Atlantic 10)
#31 UCLA (Pac 12)
#46 Louisiana Tech (WAC)
#51 Bucknell (Patriot)
#53 Akron (MAC)
#60 Valparaiso (Horizon)
#63 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
#68 Davidson (Southern)
#76 South Dakota State (Summit)
#89 Montana (Big Sky)
#91 FLORIDA GULF COAST (Atlantic Sun)
#93 HARVARD (Ivy)
#100 Iona (MAAC)
#111 FIU (Sun Belt)
#112 Long Beach State (Big West)
#123 Vermont (America East)
#154 Northeastern (Colonial)
#168 Norfolk State (MEAC)
#184 Long Island (Northeast)
#188 Southern U (SWAC)
#286 LIBERTY (Big South)

Locks (24)
#1 Duke
#3 Louisville
#8 Michigan State
#11 Marquette
#12 Michigan
#13 Arizona
#14 Ohio State
#15 Colorado State
#17 Syracuse
#19 North Carolina
#20 Kansas State
#21 Butler
#22 UNLV
#23 Oklahoma State
#24 GOPHERS
#26 VCU
#29 NC State
#34 Missouri
#38 Temple
#39 Wichita State
#40 Pitt
#42 Wisconsin
#43 Illinois
#44 Notre Dame

In, But Require 1 More Win to Seal a Bid (7)
#32 San Diego State
#33 Oklahoma
#36 Colorado
#37 Boise State
#47 Iowa State
#48 Cal
#49 Cincinnati

On the Bubble (18)
#28 Middle Tennessee (out)
#30 Saint Mary's (in)
#35 Southern Miss (out)
#41 LaSalle (in)
#50 Kentucky (out)
#52 Villanova (in)
#54 Oregon (in)
#55 Tennessee (in)
#56 Ole Miss (out)
#57 Denver (out)
#58 UMass (out)
#61 Baylor (out)
#62 Alabama (out)
#64 Stanford (out)
#66 Virginia (in)
#75 Iowa (out)
#77 Xavier (out)
#80 Arkansas (out)

My "last 4 in" and "first 4 out" as of Monday morning:
Last 4 In: Saint Mary's (#30), LaSalle (#41), Oregon (#54), Virginia (#66)
First 4 Out: Kentucky (#50), Ole Miss (#56), Baylor (#61), Alabama (#62)

Championship Week Tidbits
(1) University of Maine head coach Ted Woodward lost his 8th straight conference tournament game when his Black Bears lost 50-49 to host Albany in the quarterfinals of the America East Tournament. Maine hasn't won a conference tournament game since 2005. That has to be some kind of record for a head coach, losing 8 consecutive tourney games without losing your job.

(2) At least one of the eight spots in the First Four was locked up when Liberty (12-20 vs. D-I competition) earned the Big South's automatic bid.
 

As long as you are keeping us in "lock" status that reassures me. Thanks for all of your work.
 

Thanks Stan.

The key is Saturday morning. If the Gophers ever do drop from lock status (possible, but highly improbable), that'll be the day their name pops up.

The Gophers have 4 road/neutral wins over RPI top 100 squads (that # could grow to 5 if USC wins a game or two in the Pac 12 tourney). In my opinion, that is the single most important factoid that will prevent them from ever reaching bubble territory.
 

In SS I trust, before the talking heads on ESPN.
 

SS...what see do you see us at right now? I can't see us any better than 11 or 12 which to me indicates we are very very close to that bubble. Do you see us in the 10 seed range?
 


As of today, my guess would be a 8 or 9. Lets' go with 9.

The team I most compare this Gopher resume with is Villanova 2011. 'Nova finished 9-9 in the Big East (Gophers finished 8-10 in B1G) with 6 RPI top-50 wins (Gophers currently have 5) and 9 top-100 wins (Gophers have 11), and like the Gophers they struggled down the stretch. In fact, 'Nova lost its last 5 games, yet still ended up with a 9 seed.

However, Nova's final RPI (38), overall SOS (33), and nonconference SOS (104) numbers were nowhere near as strong as the Gophers (currently 24, 2, and 12). The bubble is different each year, I realize that, but I think this is a pretty good comparison for where the Gophers sit relative to the bubble.

Unless the Gophers do enough in the the BTT to get to a 7, I'd much rather end up with a 10 or 11 (but not in Dayton) than an 8 or a 9.
 

tmvander said:
SS...what see do you see us at right now? I can't see us any better than 11 or 12 which to me indicates we are very very close to that bubble. Do you see us in the 10 seed range?
Click to expand...

Lunardi has as a #9 today. It appears SS agrees. We could either listen to them or other Gopher 'fans' and experts such as Moses, Tiny and Co. who assure us we're NIT bound. Hmm. Hard choice.
 

I appreciate that, Howeda.

However, I'm not saying I'm right and others are wrong. Just trying to provide some historical information in an attempt to back up what I believe to be true. ... the Gophers aren't anywhere near the bubble right now.
 

Awesome...I can rest a little easier seeing the Nova comparison.
 



GopherHole Staff said:
Road to Selection Sunday: MTSU Potential Bid Stealer after Losing to FIU/Richard Pitino

By SelectionSunday
Gophers Still a "Lock" For Tourney

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/237337?referrer_id=331171

LIL' RICKY, Minn. -- The only significant development over the weekend with regards to the Field of 68 was Middle Tennessee State's semifinal loss to Richard Pitino's FIU squad in the semifinals of the Sun Belt Tournament. MTSU finishes the regular season with a #28 RPI and a 28-5 record. The loss puts the Blue Raiders squarely on the bubble. They currently are 0-2 vs. the RPI top 50 and 2-3 vs. the RPI top 100. The top-100 wins came against #56 Ole Miss (a bubble team) and at #100 UCF. MTSU's strength of schedule numbers are solid for a mid-major. ... an overall SOS of 128 and a nonconference SOS of 11.

Otherwise, Championship Week went smoothly for bubble teams. Belmont won the Ohio Valley Tournament, and Creighton/Wichita State finished 1-2 as expected at Arch Madness in Saint Louis. On the "lock" front, only Temple sealed a bid. The Owls accomplished that with a win over VCU. We're still sitting at 13 available at-large bids heading into the meat of Championship Week. Teams that have already earned their conference's automatic bid are noted in ALL CAPS bold.

Automatic Bid/Highest Remaining Seed in Conference Tournament (31)
#2 New Mexico (Mountain West)
#4 Miami-Florida (ACC)
#5 Indiana (B1G)
#6 Florida (SEC)
#7 Kansas (Big 12)
#9 Georgetown (Big East)
#10 Gonzaga (West Coast)
#16 Memphis (Conference USA)
#18 BELMONT (Ohio Valley)
#25 CREIGHTON (Missouri Valley)
#27 Saint Louis (Atlantic 10)
#31 UCLA (Pac 12)
#46 Louisiana Tech (WAC)
#51 Bucknell (Patriot)
#53 Akron (MAC)
#60 Valparaiso (Horizon)
#63 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
#68 Davidson (Southern)
#76 South Dakota State (Summit)
#89 Montana (Big Sky)
#91 FLORIDA GULF COAST (Atlantic Sun)
#93 HARVARD (Ivy)
#100 Iona (MAAC)
#111 FIU (Sun Belt)
#112 Long Beach State (Big West)
#123 Vermont (America East)
#154 Northeastern (Colonial)
#168 Norfolk State (MEAC)
#184 Long Island (Northeast)
#188 Southern U (SWAC)
#286 LIBERTY (Big South)

Locks (24)
#1 Duke
#3 Louisville
#8 Michigan State
#11 Marquette
#12 Michigan
#13 Arizona
#14 Ohio State
#15 Colorado State
#17 Syracuse
#19 North Carolina
#20 Kansas State
#21 Butler
#22 UNLV
#23 Oklahoma State
#24 GOPHERS
#26 VCU
#29 NC State
#34 Missouri
#38 Temple
#39 Wichita State
#40 Pitt
#42 Wisconsin
#43 Illinois
#44 Notre Dame

In, But Require 1 More Win to Seal a Bid (7)
#32 San Diego State
#33 Oklahoma
#36 Colorado
#37 Boise State
#47 Iowa State
#48 Cal
#49 Cincinnati

On the Bubble (18)
#28 Middle Tennessee (out)
#30 Saint Mary's (in)
#35 Southern Miss (out)
#41 LaSalle (in)
#50 Kentucky (out)
#52 Villanova (in)
#54 Oregon (in)
#55 Tennessee (in)
#56 Ole Miss (out)
#57 Denver (out)
#58 UMass (out)
#61 Baylor (out)
#62 Alabama (out)
#64 Stanford (out)
#66 Virginia (in)
#75 Iowa (out)
#77 Xavier (out)
#80 Arkansas (out)

My "last 4 in" and "first 4 out" as of Monday morning:
Last 4 In: Saint Mary's (#30), LaSalle (#41), Oregon (#54), Virginia (#66)
First 4 Out: Kentucky (#50), Ole Miss (#56), Baylor (#61), Alabama (#62)

Championship Week Tidbits
(1) University of Maine head coach Ted Woodward lost his 8th straight conference tournament game when his Black Bears lost 50-49 to host Albany in the quarterfinals of the America East Tournament. Maine hasn't won a conference tournament game since 2005. That has to be some kind of record for a head coach, losing 8 consecutive tourney games without losing your job.

(2) At least one of the eight spots in the First Four was locked up when Liberty (12-20 vs. D-I competition) earned the Big South's automatic bid.
Click to expand...
Interesting that you have Oklahoma and Iowa State both needing 1 more win to lock up a bid and only one of them will be able to since they play each other in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament.
 

SelectionSunday said:
As of today, my guess would be a 8 or 9. Lets' go with 9.

The team I most compare this Gopher resume with is Villanova 2011. 'Nova finished 9-9 in the Big East (Gophers finished 8-10 in B1G) with 6 RPI top-50 wins (Gophers currently have 5) and 9 top-100 wins (Gophers have 11), and like the Gophers they struggled down the stretch. In fact, 'Nova lost its last 5 games, yet still ended up with a 9 seed.

However, Nova's final RPI (38), overall SOS (33), and nonconference SOS (104) numbers were nowhere near as strong as the Gophers (currently 24, 2, and 12). The bubble is different each year, I realize that, but I think this is a pretty good comparison for where the Gophers sit relative to the bubble.

Unless the Gophers do enough in the the BTT to get to a 7, I'd much rather end up with a 10 or 11 (but not in Dayton) than an 8 or a 9.
Click to expand...

Would anyone be dissappointed if we got an 8 or 9 seed out West, where Gonzaga is most likely going to be the #1 seed?
 

Goldy Gopher said:
Interesting that you have Oklahoma and Iowa State both needing 1 more win to lock up a bid and only one of them will be able to since they play each other in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament.
Click to expand...

I did the same thing with Boise State/San Diego State. My hunch is all four will end up getting in, though I'd say Iowa State's position is the most precarious of the 4.
 

That MTSU is even being discussed as a bubbler proves, as much as these things can be proven, that the gophers are as safe as safe can bee.
 



If you had to play a number one Gonzaga would be the team I would pick. Better than the other teams likely to get a number 1 seed.
 

As it stands right now, we'll either be in a region with Gonzaga or Louisville.

We can't play Duke or Indiana. IF the Big Ten got two #1 bids somehow, we'd know the region.
 

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