Replacements for Mashburn

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cjbfbp

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All right. Now that Mashburn has entered the transfer portal, we should have a thread about possible replacements.

My very first name is: Fatts Russell, transfer from Rhode Island - just appeared on the transfer portal

First of all, you gotta love the name although it's a bit of a misnomer as he's 5'10" and 165 pounds. So, a Deandre Mathieu mighty mite type. His three point shooting isn't very good but his other stats and advanced stats are good.

He is an alumnus of Imhotep Charter in Philadelphia which is a small school athletic power in that state (Donta Scott from Maryland went there).

He played four years at RI and never transferred so he should be mature and eligible to play right away.

Fatts Russell
 


MennoSota said:
Gotta wait til we have a coach and see what they do. Mash isn't gone until he signs with another school.
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Well, you're correct but I'd say the chances are greater than 50%. Plus we need another point guard anyway. Nobody believes Carr will stay.
 

Can Dawson Garcia play point?
Its either him or Chet for me. Otherwise I’m throwing in the towel
 

Mashburn over 3 years may be better but next year Russell is the superior player. Absolute stud for URI over the last 4 years
 


I say Mashburn.

It is too early to be starting this type of thread....
 






There's the 5'2" guy from UMBC!
 


Otis said:
There's the 5'2" guy from UMBC!
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I saw that. Even Muggsy Bogues was an inch taller. Decent shooter though. UMBC always gets some recognition by virtue of being the only #16 seed in history to win against a #1.
 

I’d like a guy who shoots over 35% and plays defense. Any of those in the portal?
 





cjbfbp said:
How many of our guys have entered the transfer portal and returned in recent years? I can think of only Matz. The rest of them stayed gone.
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You say that as if we’ve had a ton of players in the portal. Are you actually basing the odds of Mashburn returning on that incredibly small sample? The situations are completely different too given that our coach was fired and we haven’t hired a new one yet. He may end up liking the new hire and wanting to play for him.
 


Keyser Söze said:
You say that as if we’ve had a ton of players in the portal. Are you actually basing the odds of Mashburn returning on that incredibly small sample? The situations are completely different too given that our coach was fired and we haven’t hired a new one yet. He may end up liking the new hire and wanting to play for him.
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Well, let's see. I'm doing this from memory so correct me if you see an error. Starting with players who entered the transfer portal in Pitino's second year:

Josh Martin, gone
Charles Buggs, gone
Ahmad Gilbert, gone
Devonte Fitzgerald, gone
Jamir Harris, gone
Matz Stockman, returned
Payton Willis, gone
Bryan Greenlee, gone

Small sample? For statistical inference, yes. For making a reasonable inference about whether or not a player who enters the transfer portal will leave, not so much. 87.5% of the players left. I think that's good enough to estimate that Mashburn's chances of leaving are greater than 50%.

Different situations? Of course, but not playing a big enough role is not the only compelling reason for a player to transfer. He may not like it here. He may want to join a team that has a good chance of winning now and he feels that he's good enough to play a significant role on that team. Willis left as a starter. Jamir Harris didn't play as much as Mashburn as a freshman but he appeared in 28 games, started two, and averaged 14.1 minutes per game.

Let's remember one thing that is very different now than before: there's a pretty good likelihood of the NCAA applying the one-time blanket transfer rule. Martin, Gilbert, and Harris were not able to play right away. Buggs, Fitzgerald, and Willis were grad transfers and Greenlee got a personal waiver. We might have had more transfers had the one-time transfer waiver applied previously.
 

Here's another fresh entry and he's a local boy.

Ishmael El-Amin
Played at Hopkins
Played four years at Ball State with continuous improvement
16.2 points per game, 2.9 assists per game this season, 16.0 PER in each of his last two years, Career True Shooting Percentage of .538 (not fabulous but not bad), .355 career 3 point shooter, .778 career from the line

A 3 star recruit coming out of high school but no indication that he was ever offered by Minnesota
 

Keyser Söze said:
You say that as if we’ve had a ton of players in the portal. Are you actually basing the odds of Mashburn returning on that incredibly small sample? The situations are completely different too given that our coach was fired and we haven’t hired a new one yet. He may end up liking the new hire and wanting to play for him.
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Not just sample size but quality of player. Transfers out of program here in the last five years have not exactly gone on to rousing success elsewhere. The ambiguity of transfers prior to less restrictive norms is that we observers don’t know whether they were there by their own free choice and desire or encouraged by coaches. That’s significant.

I’m in the camp of wanting him to stay. What I saw was a potential capable guard. I’m not sure he is a difference maker that should create great angst in fans either if he does leave.
 


cjbfbp said:
Here's another fresh entry and he's a local boy.

Ishmael El-Amin
Played at Hopkins
Played four years at Ball State with continuous improvement
16.2 points per game, 2.9 assists per game this season, 16.0 PER in each of his last two years, Career True Shooting Percentage of .538 (not fabulous but not bad), .355 career 3 point shooter, .778 career from the line

A 3 star recruit coming out of high school but no indication that he was ever offered by Minnesota
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I'm all for it. I also dont get what MN doesn't offer some of these kids that become successful..
 

Spottedmuskie said:
I'm all for it. I also dont get what MN doesn't offer some of these kids that become successful..
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No kidding! The kid wasn't even offered? Of course, we can ask whether he would have developed into as good of a player had he played for Pitino. Pitino didn't seem to buy into the idea of recruiting bench players. I guess he didn't realize that they often develop into starters. But, then again he wasn't very good at developing players so maybe he was recruiting with his shortcomings in mind. He had a large proportion of boom or bust players.
 

Spottedmuskie said:
I'm all for it. I also dont get what MN doesn't offer some of these kids that become successful..
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Because hindsight is 20/20. Not like he was getting offers from tons of other P6 schools. He didn't go to Ball St over his offers from the SEC, PAC12 and Big 12 schools. Same reason kids from every state don't get big time offers and end up doing well elsewhere. He is also playing inferior competition to the B1G.

He played 3 games against NCAA tournament teams, I think. 1 vs Michigan. He went 5/17 against Michigan including 0/5 on 3s.
He hit 3s against Ohio (9/18), but went 11/26 overall in 2 games. Solid output against Ohio.

Not saying he isn't a solid player but he isn't a world beater.
 

How does Maryland not offer Obi Toppin? How does no one offer Ja Morant? Its almost like guys develop after high school and no one knows what to expect. To expect a coach to offer every single player in a state that goes D1 and might turn good is asking a lot considering there aren't enough scholarships to do so.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
How does Maryland not offer Obi Toppin? How does no one offer Ja Morant? Its almost like guys develop after high school and no one knows what to expect. To expect a coach to offer every single player in a state that goes D1 and might turn good is asking a lot considering there aren't enough scholarships to do so.
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Ishmael El-Amin was a 3 star coming out of high school. As someone who played at Hopkins I think he should have been given the benefit of the doubt.
 

cjbfbp said:
Ishmael El-Amin was a 3 star coming out of high school. As someone who played at Hopkins I think he should have been given the benefit of the doubt.
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So we should offer kids based what high school they go to? He was the composite #297 player in his class, which would be terrible for a high major recruit and he didn’t have any good offers. He clearly developed after high school like tons of kids do. You can’t expect coaches to see into the future to know which ones will develop into legit high major players. Wisconsin missed out on him the same way we did. Not sure “missed” is even the right word since we still don’t know for sure that he’d be a good big ten player.
 



cjbfbp said:
Ishmael El-Amin was a 3 star coming out of high school. As someone who played at Hopkins I think he should have been given the benefit of the doubt.
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Sure. But why didn’t any P6 schools offer? He was a 3 star from Hopkins. Wisconsin missed on him. Iowa did. Nebraska. List goes on. Sometimes low-3s develop and do well at a mid major.
 

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