Recruiting Rank vs. Wins in the BIG

[GFBfan]

Our 4 year ave rank were as follows:
2013 58.75 Above Purdue and NW BIG record: 4-4 which was 6th overall(tied with PSU) and 4th in the Legends
2014 60 Only above Purdue BIG record: 5-3 which was 4th overall(tied with Neb) and 2nd in West
2015 61.5 Only above Purdue BIG record: 2-6 which was 11th overall(tied with Illini and Ind) and 6th in West
2016 58.25 Above Purdue and Illinois BIG record: 5-4 which was 7th overall(tied with NW) and 4th in West
2017 56.25 Above Purdue and Illinois BIG record: 3-6 which was 12th overall(tied with Mary and Ind) and 6th in West
2018 51.5 Above NW, Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue BIG record: 3-6 which was 11th overall(tied with Neb and Mary) and 5th in West

That would show we performed above our recruiting rankings every year of the JK/TC era and have yet to in the PJ era.
PJ gets huge props for winning the axe and shutting up all the Vadger fans.

I'd prefer we have higher ranked classes and be able to win at the same level as our rank.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

On “As GH Spins Today” we all learned that 3-6, 5-7 is better than 3-6, 7-6. And this coming from the same folks demanding 8 wins...

Yes, a 3-6 Big Ten record is the same as 3-6, and if there is a head to head winner that team wins the tiebreaker.

If you want to look at national ranking per S&P+ (49) and compare that to our average 5 year recruiting ranking (53) things looks slightly better. FEI has MN at 46 and F/+ 45. So he may have slightly overachieved in these national rankings.

You know who really overachieved during their eras? Mason, Kill, Claeys. If PJ with his slightly better recruits can overachieve to the same extent we’ll be doing very well and should be able to reach Indianapolis at some point in the next several years.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Our 4 year ave rank were as follows:
2013 58.75 Above Purdue and NW BIG record: 4-4 which was 6th overall(tied with PSU) and 4th in the Legends
2014 60 Only above Purdue BIG record: 5-3 which was 4th overall(tied with Neb) and 2nd in West
2015 61.5 Only above Purdue BIG record: 2-6 which was 11th overall(tied with Illini and Ind) and 6th in West
2016 58.25 Above Purdue and Illinois BIG record: 5-4 which was 7th overall(tied with NW) and 4th in West
2017 56.25 Above Purdue and Illinois BIG record: 3-6 which was 12th overall(tied with Mary and Ind) and 6th in West
2018 51.5 Above NW, Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue BIG record: 3-6 which was 11th overall(tied with Neb and Mary) and 5th in West

That would show we performed above our recruiting rankings every year of the JK/TC era and have yet to in the PJ era.
PJ gets huge props for winning the axe and shutting up all the Vadger fans.

I'd prefer we have higher ranked classes and be able to win at the same level as our rank.

We did? What about 2011 and 2012?

 

[GFBfan]

We did? What about 2011 and 2012?

Only did research back to 2013 for records as I went back to 2010 on recruiting. I started at 2010 as it was a nice round number.
So, my statement should have been, it would show we performed above our recruiting rankings each year that I researched while JK/TC were HC and have yet to with PJ. My apologies

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Only did research back to 2013 for records as I went back to 2010 on recruiting. I started at 2010 as it was a nice round number.

Fair enough, but I can pretty much guarantee JK did not outperform recruiting rankings in years 1 or 2. Which would be similar to Fleck's first two years.

 

[John Galt]

Yes, a 3-6 Big Ten record is the same as 3-6, and if there is a head to head winner that team wins the tiebreaker.

If you want to look at national ranking per S&P+ (49) and compare that to our average 5 year recruiting ranking (53) things looks slightly better. FEI has MN at 46 and F/+ 45. So he may have slightly overachieved in these national rankings.

You know who really overachieved during their eras? Mason, Kill, Claeys. If PJ with his slightly better recruits can overachieve to the same extent we’ll be doing very well and should be able to reach Indianapolis at some point in the next several years.

No doubt Kill and Claeys overachieved compared to their class rankings. Unfortunately for them, recruiting is also a pretty important part of the job which prevented them from achieving the level of success we all wanted.

 

[GFBfan]

Fair enough, but I can pretty much guarantee JK did not outperform recruiting rankings in years 1 or 2. Which would be similar to Fleck's first two years.

2012 50.75 Rank was 9th, finished year 2-6 which was 11th overall tied with Ind and Iowa and 6th in Legends
2011 42.5 Rank was 8th, finished year 2-6 which was 10th overall tied with Illinois and 6th in Legends

So JK had a slightly worse start than PJ, as the Brewster classes were rated really high (highest two overall) which made the 4 year ave. those first two years for JK the two highest we have ever been.

 

[Spoofin]

So....
- Kill was a very good coach
- PJ has brought in more talent than Kill did, appears to be moving in the right direction, but has underachieved a bit thus far

Thank goodness we had Recruiting Rankings to tell us that. How else would we have ever known?


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[Dano564]

I'm hopeful we only have threads like this in 2019 during the off-season.

Things Gopherhole can't agree on.
- our placing last year
- whether recruiting rankings are valid or not.
- our record last year

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I'm hopeful we only have threads like this in 2019 during the off-season.

Things Gopherhole can't agree on.
- our placing last year
- whether recruiting rankings are valid or not.
- our record last year

There is disagreement on this?

 

[GFBfan]

No doubt Kill and Claeys overachieved compared to their class rankings. Unfortunately for them, recruiting is also a pretty important part of the job which prevented them from achieving the level of success we all wanted.

I don’t agree with your last sentence. They had a recruiting philosophy that worked for them and they were gradually having more success, which I believe would have led to better recruits and more success, had health issues not derailed it all. Similar to what PJ is trying to do now.


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[Urbandale]

No doubt Kill and Claeys overachieved compared to their class rankings. Unfortunately for them, recruiting is also a pretty important part of the job which prevented them from achieving the level of success we all wanted.

According to Stewart Mandel in his college football mailbag in The Athletic yesterday, "recruiting is the most important part" of a successful college football coach and program.

 

[Gophers_4life]

They had a recruiting philosophy that worked for them and they were gradually having more success, which I believe would have led to better recruits and more success, had health issues not derailed it all.

Right, I don't think anyone would say that Kill and/or Claeys would actually turn down or not-offer higher ranked recruits, to focus on lower ranked players. They would have taken higher ranked players, if they could have gotten them.


The ultimate, ultimate question, which can probably never be definitely proven, and so may only be believed or disbelieved:

are increases in winning, and increases in recruiting rankings ..... coincidence????

 

[Gophers_4life]

There is disagreement on this?

- Eight teams in the Big Ten finished with 5-4 or better conference records last season. So we must have finished 9th or worse in the conference. I don't think anyone can argue we finished 8th or better.
- Three teams went 3-6, Nebraska and Minnesota in the West, and Maryland in the East. Nebraska was 4-8 overall, Maryland was 5-7 overall. But we got crushed by both.
- Illinois went 2-7, as did Indiana. Illinois was 4-8 overall, Indiana 5-7 overall. Illinois crushed us, while we beat Indiana in the rainy Friday night game (though our pathetic Robb Smith defense almost gave the game away).
- Rutgers is the unquestioned last place team at 0-9, 1-11.


So .... given the facts above. Did we finish 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, or 13th in the conference??? I would consider it also acceptable to say something like "we tied for ___th place".


Go.

 

[PMWinSTP]

- Eight teams in the Big Ten finished with 5-4 or better conference records last season. So we must have finished 9th or worse in the conference. I don't think anyone can argue we finished 8th or better.
- Three teams went 3-6, Nebraska and Minnesota in the West, and Maryland in the East. Nebraska was 4-8 overall, Maryland was 5-7 overall. But we got crushed by both.
- Illinois went 2-7, as did Indiana. Illinois was 4-8 overall, Indiana 5-7 overall. Illinois crushed us, while we beat Indiana in the rainy Friday night game (though our pathetic Robb Smith defense almost gave the game away).
- Rutgers is the unquestioned last place team at 0-9, 1-11.


So .... given the facts above. Did we finish 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, or 13th in the conference??? I would consider it also acceptable to say something like "we tied for ___th place".


Go.

See post #57.

 

[John Galt]

I don’t agree with your last sentence. They had a recruiting philosophy that worked for them and they were gradually having more success, which I believe would have led to better recruits and more success, had health issues not derailed it all. Similar to what PJ is trying to do now.


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I think it was pretty obvious they were capped out and were going to take a step back. The QB and WR situations were disasters, and they basically didn't have a DT on the roster.

 

[John Galt]

Right, I don't think anyone would say that Kill and/or Claeys would actually turn down or not-offer higher ranked recruits, to focus on lower ranked players. They would have taken higher ranked players, if they could have gotten them.


The ultimate, ultimate question, which can probably never be definitely proven, and so may only be believed or disbelieved:

are increases in winning, and increases in recruiting rankings ..... coincidence????

Either Kill or Claeys, I can't remember who, made the comment that they wanted to be in recruiting situations that they could dominate. Hence, their recruiting strategy largely focused on finding the top recruits who didn't have P5 offers that they felt could contribute and they could land without a protracted recruiting battle. It worked okay for them, but we never beat a top 25 team in 6 years. If someone was going to compare the number of P5 offers of Fleck's recruits in the 2018/2019 classes with the Kill/Claeys classes, the disparity would be enormous.

 

[GFBfan]

I think it was pretty obvious they were capped out and were going to take a step back. The QB and WR situations were disasters, and they basically didn't have a DT on the roster.

Not obvious at all. 2015 is when JK had to step down midseason. After that year, TC was able to bring in the best class of their time. Had Jerry not stepped away at that point, it seems pretty obvious that class would have signed with Kill just as well. From that point on it's not a huge leap to think that they would have been able to continue that momentum into the 2016 season and 2017 recruiting year.
The QB and WR situations were disasters for what PJ wanted to do, can't really say that about what Kill would have done in 16 and what would have happened beyond that. The DT situation came about, because of the switch from Kill to Claeys at HC and moving Sawvel to DC. They seemed to be going through a change in philosophy to a 3-4 look which doesn't require the same number of DT's as a 4-3 that Kill as HC and Claeys as DC used and what PJ is using now.

 

[GFBfan]

Either Kill or Claeys, I can't remember who, made the comment that they wanted to be in recruiting situations that they could dominate. Hence, their recruiting strategy largely focused on finding the top recruits who didn't have P5 offers that they felt could contribute and they could land without a protracted recruiting battle. It worked okay for them, but we never beat a top 25 team in 6 years. If someone was going to compare the number of P5 offers of Fleck's recruits in the 2018/2019 classes with the Kill/Claeys classes, the disparity would be enormous.

It was recruiting coordinator Billy Glasscock who said that.
In 2013 the beat #25 Nebraska and in 2014 they beat #21 Nebraska in Lincoln.

 

[John Galt]

Not obvious at all. 2015 is when JK had to step down midseason. After that year, TC was able to bring in the best class of their time. Had Jerry not stepped away at that point, it seems pretty obvious that class would have signed with Kill just as well. From that point on it's not a huge leap to think that they would have been able to continue that momentum into the 2016 season and 2017 recruiting year.
The QB and WR situations were disasters for what PJ wanted to do, can't really say that about what Kill would have done in 16 and what would have happened beyond that. The DT situation came about, because of the switch from Kill to Claeys at HC and moving Sawvel to DC. They seemed to be going through a change in philosophy to a 3-4 look which doesn't require the same number of DT's as a 4-3 that Kill as HC and Claeys as DC used and what PJ is using now.

The 2016 class benefited from the strongest crop of MN prep recruits in a long time. 9 of 21 were from Minnesota, which is a statistical anomaly. Past history would indicate that 2017 would have returned to the historical norm. Again, I'm not sure how anyone can think a staff is still building the foundation in year 6. 6 years is probably about the average tenure for a college football coach, you pretty much are who you are by then. No staff in America is going to suddenly produce significantly better results in year 7 and beyond unless something else has changed. The move to the 3-4, according to Ryan Burns who knows the Gophers far better than I do, was because they literally couldn't recruit DTs. We heard for years how hard it was to recruit DTs, but PJ doesn't appear to have that same problem.

 

[John Galt]

It was recruiting coordinator Billy Glasscock who said that.
In 2013 the beat #25 Nebraska and in 2014 they beat #21 Nebraska in Lincoln.

They weren't ranked at the end of the year, which you know is what I meant.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Out of curiosity, what were the national rankings of Kill/Claeys recruited classes?

The P5 is 65 teams (including Notre Dame, excluding all other independents), so were we still at least in the top 65? And I wonder if there were G5 schools that beat us? Probably

 

[GFBfan]

The 2016 class benefited from the strongest crop of MN prep recruits in a long time. 9 of 21 were from Minnesota, which is a statistical anomaly. Past history would indicate that 2017 would have returned to the historical norm. Again, I'm not sure how anyone can think a staff is still building the foundation in year 6. 6 years is probably about the average tenure for a college football coach, you pretty much are who you are by then. No staff in America is going to suddenly produce significantly better results in year 7 and beyond unless something else has changed. The move to the 3-4, according to Ryan Burns who knows the Gophers far better than I do, was because they literally couldn't recruit DTs. We heard for years how hard it was to recruit DTs, but PJ doesn't appear to have that same problem.

You mean like the Athletes Village?
Jerry was very vocal about the inadequate facilities that he had to try and recruit kids with, you don't think the addition of that would have helped with his recruiting?

 

[GFBfan]

Out of curiosity, what were the national rankings of Kill/Claeys recruited classes?

The P5 is 65 teams (including Notre Dame, excluding all other independents), so were we still at least in the top 65? And I wonder if there were G5 schools that beat us? Probably

By Year
2011 - 57
2012 - 59
2013 - 67
2014 - 57
2015 - 63
2016 - 46

 

[Spoofin]

I think it was pretty obvious they were capped out and were going to take a step back. The QB and WR situations were disasters, and they basically didn't have a DT on the roster.

“Pretty obvious”... IALTO

SG17 would have been the starter. He would have been a good fit style-wise for their scheme. Not for PJ’s. I think it is pretty obvious the talent Seth has. Disaster?

TJ6 would have still been here. Disaster?

DT wasn’t pretty, but a different scheme and a better defensive coaching staff. Disaster?


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[Spoofin]

The 2016 class benefited from the strongest crop of MN prep recruits in a long time.....

So we had a good* recruiting class to go along with our 9* wins?


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[Gophers_4life]

By Year
2011 - 57
2012 - 59
2013 - 67
2014 - 57
2015 - 63
2016 - 46

The 2015 class is disappointing, considering how successful the 2014 season was.

Can't recall if we were in the hunt for some other guys and just lost out on them? Athlete's village might have made a difference too, as you pointed out.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Unfortunately, I think some people are looking for or expecting the impossible.

Maybe if someone could devote weeks of study and had a cray super-computer to crunch the numbers, they could come up with a formula or algorithm that would give an absolute answer to the question: how much does a higher recruiting class correlate to improvement in the win-loss record?

But short of turning MIT loose on the question, I think this debate will never be settled.

it is a game played by humans, coached by humans, and officiated by humans. there will always be a human element and variables.

Part of being a fan is hoping for a result that may not be borne out by the numbers. If Neb has a better recruiting class than MN, a fan can still hope that MN beats Nebraska. It may not be logical - it may not be supported by data - but a fan always has the right to hope. without hope, I suspect that attendance at Gopher games would be even worse. (until we get those $35 season tickets.....but that's another thread)

 

[John Galt]

“Pretty obvious”... IALTO

SG17 would have been the starter. He would have been a good fit style-wise for their scheme. Not for PJ’s. I think it is pretty obvious the talent Seth has. Disaster?

TJ6 would have still been here. Disaster?

DT wasn’t pretty, but a different scheme and a better defensive coaching staff. Disaster?


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I love Green in the wildcat. But I don't think he's the passer that Mitch was, which is saying something. So yes, the QB position would have been bleak. We saw firsthand how bad it was in 2017.

I'll attribute TJ's development to PJ and Simon, since he was okay at best as a freshman and the previous staff had a history of not developing WRs.

Like you said, DT was a disaster.

 

[Spoofin]

I love Green in the wildcat. But I don't think he's the passer that Mitch was, which is saying something. So yes, the QB position would have been bleak. We saw firsthand how bad it was in 2017.

I'll attribute TJ's development to PJ and Simon, since he was okay at best as a freshman and the previous staff had a history of not developing WRs.

Like you said, DT was a disaster.

OK, I see. It is pretty obvious SG17 would have failed, TJ6 wouldn’t have developed, and TC/JS couldn’t have succeeded on D. Pretty obvious.


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