Recruiting Analysis - why stars don't matter


One inescapable reality that BCS recruits face is that where they are is not the same place as where the BCS scholarships are. Of course this is trivially true, only a small portion of our population grows up in college towns, but it is true on a macro level as well. The median location of a BCS recruit lies right in the heart of the South, near the town of Toney in northern Alabama. However, the median location of a BCS scholarship spot is around 200 miles north of that average recruit, right on the border between Dixie and the North in the space between the towns of Evansville, Indiana and Henderson, Kentucky (view map).

There's no getting around it, the average BCS recruit has to head North, but not every recruit has to put up with colder winters if they aren't so inclined. With the blessing of talent, comes the privilege of choice:

Stars
Average Distance
Average Move N/S
Average Move E/W
★★ 299 miles 180 miles N 78 miles W
★★★ 255 miles 134 miles N 13 miles E
★★★★ 234 miles 50 miles N 25 miles E
★★★★★ 260 miles 39 miles S 72 miles E
The laws of supply and demand pull the average recruit North, but if you aren't average then you don't have to follow the rules that govern the masses. With every star comes more choice in the form of more scholarship offers, and when given that choice recruits vote with their feet for the warmer weather and milder winters of the southern climes. The trend East and West, while less pronounced, is also clear: When recruits have the choice, they prefer to move towards the population centers to the East rather than venture into "flyover country" in the great American middle. A sobering thought for Iowa fans, or fans of any Midwestern football program that sits both to the North and West of most recruits.

That is both fascinating and depressing.
 

That was a really interesting and informative article. It was unfortunate to see us rather close to the bottom in terms of player development, but it was cool to see that a given recruit has a better chance of going to the NFL by choosing a Big Ten school over an SEC (or any other BCS conference) school.
 

You might want to rethink the title of the thread. From the article:

First off we have to get one thing straight: stars matter. The USCs and Ohio States of the world bring in higher rated recruiting classes and - on average - they win more as a result. What's more, the higher rated a recruit is, the more likely they are to excel as a football player. For instance, higher rated recruits are more likely to be drafted into the NFL, and when drafted they are drafted higher and stick with their NFL team with greater frequency.

If you said "Stars aren't everything", I would be in agreement.
 

My hope was that the polarizing title would promote greater clickage in this slow time of the year. The article certainly paints a different picture. Sorry for the confusion

You might want to rethink the title of the thread. From the article:



If you said "Stars aren't everything", I would be in agreement.
 



Cheap, I know.

"Deep Statistical Analysis of Recruiting" may not have captured the attention of the everyman. If there's one thing that Gopherhole can generate discourse on, it's stars and 40 times.
 


My hope was that the polarizing title would promote greater clickage in this slow time of the year. The article certainly paints a different picture. Sorry for the confusion

Is greater clickage something like greater cleavage?
 



I hate using NFL draft status as a proxy for college success. It would be more meaningful to me to use RPI as a senior or some other proxy that is cromulent to success in college. I have no idea if the results would be different.
 


Is greater clickage something like greater cleavage?

Dr.Don you have taken the star ranking discusion to new depths but I say it is about time we begin to explore this topic differently. This way I can keep abreast as to any changes.
 

I hate using NFL draft status as a proxy for college success. It would be more meaningful to me to use RPI as a senior or some other proxy that is cromulent to success in college. I have no idea if the results would be different.

I agree, while it is nice to put players in the NFL, colleges recruit players to help them win college football games.
 







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