RailBaronYarr
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Ok I know there was another thread where I posted on this, but in the midst of all this coach discussion going on, I'd like to get a feel for what people's expectations for the coach are, assuming steady state operation (not 1st year rebuild or maybe 2nd year). What is the expectation for the performance of our team on any average year?
My take:
Given the way the Big Ten will shape up next year with the new team and divisions, here is who we play yearly: Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, and protected rival Wisconsin.
We also get 2 of the following (assuming 8 game B10 slate): Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue.
We then have 4 non-conference games a year, with most years in the foreseeable future including 1 quality BCS foe and 3 non-BCS and possible FCS teams.
My expectation is that we should win, on average, at LEAST 50% of our games against rivals Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska (by that I mean win 1 game every 2 years at a minimum). We should win 50% of our games against Michigan State and take at least half of the games against a quality BCS foe. I feel that a solid coach and recruiting pipeline should also give us the ability to win 75% of our games against teams like Purdue, Illinois, and Indiana. I am NOT claiming they should be or are cellar teams, more that our institution, history, and hopefully new coach should allow us to achieve that. I think it reasonable that every 2 times we play Penn State we win 1 of them (given their coaching changes and ours as well). The only team I expect or would be fine with not having a winning or .500 record against is Ohio State, given how extremely dominant they are and have been in the past 10 years (and show no signs of stopping). If we won 1 out of 4 games with them, I would be ok with that.
Given all this, an "average year" will see the following wins:
NC1 1
NC2 1
NC3 1
BCS NC 0.5
Michigan 0.5
MSU 0.5
Nebraska 0.5
Iowa 0.5
Wisconsin 0.5
Northwestern 0.75
Other Division 2 1.2
With the "Other Division 2" coming from taking (2/5)*(total "wins" from other teams mentioned, assuming the scheduling on any given year could be a random mix 2 of the 5)
OSU 0.25
PSU 0.5
Purdue 0.75
Illinois 0.75
Indiana 0.75
So, what does that give us? Average 7.95 wins a year (not including bowl), 4.45 (.556) in the Big Ten. I think that this should be a minimum expectation for any sports fan - going .500 against rivals and winning a good number of the games you SHOULD win, and a respectable number of games we have a lesser chance on (the OSUs of the world). This puts us ina good position for recruiting (locking down borders to IA/WI, proving to outstate recruits that we CAN win on a regular basis, etc) as well as to our fans that in a given year they will see a competitive team, with a chance that once in a while our schedule and bounces go our way and we win 10+ games in the regular season.
My thoughts. Yours?
My take:
Given the way the Big Ten will shape up next year with the new team and divisions, here is who we play yearly: Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, and protected rival Wisconsin.
We also get 2 of the following (assuming 8 game B10 slate): Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue.
We then have 4 non-conference games a year, with most years in the foreseeable future including 1 quality BCS foe and 3 non-BCS and possible FCS teams.
My expectation is that we should win, on average, at LEAST 50% of our games against rivals Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska (by that I mean win 1 game every 2 years at a minimum). We should win 50% of our games against Michigan State and take at least half of the games against a quality BCS foe. I feel that a solid coach and recruiting pipeline should also give us the ability to win 75% of our games against teams like Purdue, Illinois, and Indiana. I am NOT claiming they should be or are cellar teams, more that our institution, history, and hopefully new coach should allow us to achieve that. I think it reasonable that every 2 times we play Penn State we win 1 of them (given their coaching changes and ours as well). The only team I expect or would be fine with not having a winning or .500 record against is Ohio State, given how extremely dominant they are and have been in the past 10 years (and show no signs of stopping). If we won 1 out of 4 games with them, I would be ok with that.
Given all this, an "average year" will see the following wins:
NC1 1
NC2 1
NC3 1
BCS NC 0.5
Michigan 0.5
MSU 0.5
Nebraska 0.5
Iowa 0.5
Wisconsin 0.5
Northwestern 0.75
Other Division 2 1.2
With the "Other Division 2" coming from taking (2/5)*(total "wins" from other teams mentioned, assuming the scheduling on any given year could be a random mix 2 of the 5)
OSU 0.25
PSU 0.5
Purdue 0.75
Illinois 0.75
Indiana 0.75
So, what does that give us? Average 7.95 wins a year (not including bowl), 4.45 (.556) in the Big Ten. I think that this should be a minimum expectation for any sports fan - going .500 against rivals and winning a good number of the games you SHOULD win, and a respectable number of games we have a lesser chance on (the OSUs of the world). This puts us ina good position for recruiting (locking down borders to IA/WI, proving to outstate recruits that we CAN win on a regular basis, etc) as well as to our fans that in a given year they will see a competitive team, with a chance that once in a while our schedule and bounces go our way and we win 10+ games in the regular season.
My thoughts. Yours?