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MaxyJR1

MaxyJR1

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Heard on the radio this morning that 37 of the 44 pro bowlers selected for NFL Pro Bowl were 3 start or less coming out of high school.

Pretty amazing number.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Heard on the radio this morning that 37 of the 44 pro bowlers selected for NFL Pro Bowl were 3 start or less coming out of high school.

Pretty amazing number.
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It goes to show that talent can come from anywhere - that said, looking at the inverse, 16% of the pro bowlers this year were 4 or more stars coming out of high school. In the Rivals 2017 database, 9% of their prospects are 4 or more stars, while 91% are 3 stars or lower. So higher-rated players, while less numerous, seem to have a better hit rate of being a future-level "star," at least from this very small sample.
 

Yeah, seems high to me. But here is the million dollar question, how do you identify the pro bowl three star players versus the rest?
 


it's a probabilities game. per sbnation in 2016
"For every five-star recruit, there are approximately: 11 four-star recruits, 36 three-star recruits, 61 two-star recruits and 9,090 other seniors playing football"

there are usually 15 to 30 5 star recruits each year

Billy Glasscock said the U starts with a pool of about 15,000 players each year

here's someone's analysis of recruiting rankings and the nfl draft
http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/174883892/predicting-best-nfl-draft-prospects-talent
 


Winnipegopher said:
Yeah, seems high to me. But here is the million dollar question, how do you identify the pro bowl three star players versus the rest?
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Bingo. In a hypothetical situation, let's say all 44 pro bowlers were from the same recruiting year. There are about 4400 players in the Rivals database in any given year. About 4000 of those will be 3 or fewer stars, about 400 will be 4 or more stars. Your chance of hitting a 3-star or lower pro bowler is 37/4000, or 0.925%. Your chance of hitting a 4-star or higher pro-bowler is 7/400, or 1.75%.

You're about twice as likely to find a star in the 4-star or greater group than in the 3-star or lower group. That doesn't mean you can't find it in either area, nor does it mean any side is anything close to a sure bet. But the odds look better on the higher end of the star scale.
 

Gopher07 said:
Bingo. In a hypothetical situation, let's say all 44 pro bowlers were from the same recruiting year. There are about 4400 players in the Rivals database in any given year. About 4000 of those will be 3 or fewer stars, about 400 will be 4 or more stars. Your chance of hitting a 3-star or lower pro bowler is 37/4000, or 0.925%. Your chance of hitting a 4-star or higher pro-bowler is 7/400, or 1.75%.

You're about twice as likely to find a star in the 4-star or greater group than in the 3-star or lower group. That doesn't mean you can't find it in either area, nor does it mean any side is anything close to a sure bet. But the odds look better on the higher end of the star scale.
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Exactly. And the people who argue that recruiting rankings don't matter, don't understand basic probabilities.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Exactly. And the people who argue that recruiting rankings don't matter, don't understand basic probabilities.
Click to expand...

Serious question then. What have been the Recruiting Rankings for Fleck at Western Michigan?
 

Iceland12 said:
Serious question then. What have been the Recruiting Rankings for Fleck at Western Michigan?
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He's brought in 40 3-star players since he came on at the end of 2012 (average about 8 3-stars per year), about 80 2-star or less players, no 4 or above, according to Rivals. Typically toward the top of the MAC, ranked nationally in the 50-80 range.
 



Iceland12 said:
Serious question then. What have been the Recruiting Rankings for Fleck at Western Michigan?
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They won't jump out at you nationally, but still at the top of the MAC. Really not far off from where Minnesota has been.


National Rank according to Rivals
2014: 62
2015: 78
2016: 64
2017: 53

What happens if Fleck starts recruiting with P5 resources?
 

Captain 07 and Gopher Weather Guy:

Thanks much for the info, but how and where do you find it so fast?
 

You do realize that about 90% of college recruits are 3 stars or lower right?

Also in the AFC there were 16 4/5 star players.
 




MaxyJR1 said:
Heard on the radio this morning that 37 of the 44 pro bowlers selected for NFL Pro Bowl were 3 start or less coming out of high school.

Pretty amazing number.
Click to expand...

Heard the same thing as well however as others have pointed out the number really doesn't tell the whole story. The other issue on this is when did a 3 star recruit become a bad thing? The under the radar and diamond in the rough guys are the 2 stars and lower coming out of high school. If a kid gets 3 stars he is a pretty solid player, maybe not a superstar but still solid. I have rarely heard anyone on this board complain about a 3 star. You hear complaints about the 2 stars and the lack of 4/5 star but I think most would be foolish to complain about a class built of mostly 3 star players.
 


Since the suspension and subsequent boycott, not one scheduled visit. I'll stand corrected, but I have my doubts this class will fill out, especially if we have 10 new openings or more from transfers.
 

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