Question for the experts here

[GophersInIowa]

They are ranked 19 in the latest BCS bowl. Don't they only have to finish in the top 14? I can see them passing UCLA, UCF, and Fresno if they lay a thumping on us this weekend, since we are now rated 25.

They have to finish in the top 14 to even have a chance. Getting there does not guarantee it though.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

The BCS computer rankings don't take into account margin of victory, which does not make them very valuable in determining the relative strength of the teams. The polls are completely subjective and there is a clear bias against teams from the Big 10 in most years, but even more so this year. Whether that is right or wrong, is certainly open to debate.

When determining the relative strength of a team, the most objective measure is not just who wins and loses a game, but the score of the game. In looking at the rankings of one of the most respected people out there (Sagarin) that does numbers like that, the Badgers are 5th and ranked ahead of two teams that they narrowly lost to on the road. That tells a lot about what the objective numbers say about how good the Badgers are.

The Badgers lost to the number 6 team by 1 on the road and the number 8 team by 7 on the road.
The Badgers beat the number 21 team by 10 points at home. / The Gophers highest rated opponent to date is #41.
They beat the 41st ranked team by 19 on the road / The Gophers lost to that team by 16 at home
They beat the 62nd ranked team by 48 at home / The Gophers beat that team by 3 on the road.
They beat 66th ranked team by 29 at home / The Gophers beat that team by 3 on the road.

You can think the numbers are voodoo, don't mean a thing, whatever the case may be. However, a lot of money changes hands every week based on similar power numbers, so they certainly have some value.

All that being said, the numbers don't guarantee wins and losses and do not mean the Gophers can't win on Saturday. But they do explain how one team is a 14.5 point favorite on the road against another team with the same record.

The reason that the BCS uses rankings that don't consider margin of victory is a good one. It is better to measure teams by whether or not they are able to pull out wins against top-level competition than it is to measure teams by who can run up the score the most against Illinois and Purdue.

 

[justthefacts]

The reason that the BCS uses rankings that don't consider margin of victory is a good one. It is better to measure teams by whether or not they are able to pull out wins against top-level competition than it is to measure teams by who can run up the score the most against Illinois and Purdue.

You can say that, but Vegas doesn't use computers that ignore margin of victory to determine lines. The Sagarin Predictor is almost always within a point or two of the opening lines. And while obviously the main goal of the casinos is to get equal betting action, the way they do that is by coming up with an accurate line. So when Sagarin says that Wisconsin would beat South Carolina (for instance) by 8 points on a neutral field, it's definitely a pretty good indicator of the strength of the teams. This is especially true late in the season when the sample size is large.

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

They are ranked 19 in the latest BCS bowl. Don't they only have to finish in the top 14? I can see them passing UCLA, UCF, and Fresno if they lay a thumping on us this weekend, since we are now rated 25.

The overall B1G is down this year, but MSU, UW, and OSU could all hang with any team in the country (in my opinion from watching football on Saturdays). There are quite a few teams ranked in the top 15 (including UCLA, UCF, Fresno, Northern Illinois) who I believe the three top B1G teams would handle easily.

 

[maroonedinCA]

The overall B1G is down this year, but MSU, UW, and OSU could all hang with any team in the country (in my opinion from watching football on Saturdays). There are quite a few teams ranked in the top 15 (including UCLA, UCF, Fresno, Northern Illinois) who I believe the three top B1G teams would handle easily.

I don't think any of those three teams hang with Alabama or FSU. UW doesn't hang with Oregon or Baylor either (the other two could).

 

[Gopherguy0723]

I don't think any of those three teams hang with Alabama or FSU. UW doesn't hang with Oregon or Baylor either (the other two could).

Agreed. I think Alabama and FSU would mop the floor with OSU. UW would get creamed by those teams as well, and probably by a few more than that.

 

[50PoundHead]

The reason that the BCS uses rankings that don't consider margin of victory is a good one. It is better to measure teams by whether or not they are able to pull out wins against top-level competition than it is to measure teams by who can run up the score the most against Illinois and Purdue.

I agree on a lot of grounds. If a team is constantly pulling out squeakers that is one thing and I can understand if it's being considered. But what's the difference between winning by 28 and winning by 45? Probably not a whole lot if you're keeping your first string in until the 4th quarter. That was always one reason I thought Mason's teams were a bit overrated. Not saying Wisconsin is leaving their starters in too long or anything like that, but you'd have to deconstruct every game to see if a final winning margin over three touchdowns is a true indication of anything.

PS--Agree on Alabama and FSU drubbing the Buckeyes or any B1G team. Anything can happen in one game, but overall those two teams are really the cream of the crop this year.

 

[AEmerson40]

The three best teams in the B1G are OSU, Michigan St. and Wisconsin. IMO, there is a significant drop off after those three.

OSU is good, but they've only beat one team currently ranked in the Top 25: Wisconsin.

Wisconsin has been winning games big, but they have only beaten two teams with winnning records: BYU and Iowa. They lost to an Arizona St. team that got manhandled by Stanford and also lost to a mediocre Notre Dame team.

Michigan St., the 2nd or 3rd best team in the conference, lost to a mediocre Notre Dame team.

I don't think anyone knows how good OSU is and if they could compete with Bama and FSU. Wisconsin and MSU lost to some marginal-to-good teams in ASU and Notre Dame in the non-conference. If two of the top three teams lose to ASU and Notre Dame, it tells me the conference isn't that good, and the rankings are probably justified.

I thought the fact that Notre Dame has beaten ASU and MSU (not to mention USC w/o their starting qb in the second half) would tip people off that they're not really that mediocre when healthy.

 

[Iceland12]

You can say that, but Vegas doesn't use computers that ignore margin of victory to determine lines. The Sagarin Predictor is almost always within a point or two of the opening lines. And while obviously the main goal of the casinos is to get equal betting action, the way they do that is by coming up with an accurate line. So when Sagarin says that Wisconsin would beat South Carolina (for instance) by 8 points on a neutral field, it's definitely a pretty good indicator of the strength of the teams. This is especially true late in the season when the sample size is large.

There are people that disagree and bookmakers who say that your second point will trump your first. Could be why the books on occasion, can lose big on a game and even mores win?

"Costa Rican Gopher"

Ok, makes sense now. That line didn't really open at -7 then, that is to say it was never available to the public to bet on at -7.

Bookmaker goes up first with their lines & what they do is allow one "wiseguy" (professional bettor) to bet into their lines first. They get them ironed out at greatly reduced limits that way. So in this case specifically, they took one bet at -7 at overnight (i.e. greatly reduced) limits, moved straight to -8 & took another overnight/reduced limit bet from the same account, then went to -9.5 where they opened the line for betting to the public.

Now they'll stay at -9.5, let the general public bet +9.5 all week and maybe come back to -9 if they get too lopsided. They're now on the "right side" of the game rooting with the wiseguy who "ironed out" their line & hoping their "squares" (recreational bettors) will lose.

Furthermore, for those that think the books are looking for 50/50 action on both sides of the games, well you just got a peek at how it really works.


http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/bo...oint-underdogs-at-Indiana&p=784089#post784089

 

[John Galt]

I thought the fact that Notre Dame has beaten ASU and MSU (not to mention USC w/o their starting qb in the second half) would tip people off that they're not really that mediocre when healthy.

I'll confess that I don't follow or care about Notre Dame enough to know what their injury situation is. At the end of the day, you are your record. They are 7-3 with losses to Michigan, Oklahoma, and Pitt by 11, 14, and 7 points. All of their wins except for 2 have been by 7 points or less. I'd call that a mediocre-to-good team. Not excellent, not really good. Granted those terms are used differently by different fan bases, but I doubt ND fans are happy with the season?

 

[justthefacts]

There are people that disagree and bookmakers who say that your second point will trump your first. Could be why the books on occasion, can lose big on a game and even mores win?

"Costa Rican Gopher"

Ok, makes sense now. That line didn't really open at -7 then, that is to say it was never available to the public to bet on at -7.

Bookmaker goes up first with their lines & what they do is allow one "wiseguy" (professional bettor) to bet into their lines first. They get them ironed out at greatly reduced limits that way. So in this case specifically, they took one bet at -7 at overnight (i.e. greatly reduced) limits, moved straight to -8 & took another overnight/reduced limit bet from the same account, then went to -9.5 where they opened the line for betting to the public.

Now they'll stay at -9.5, let the general public bet +9.5 all week and maybe come back to -9 if they get too lopsided. They're now on the "right side" of the game rooting with the wiseguy who "ironed out" their line & hoping their "squares" (recreational bettors) will lose.

Furthermore, for those that think the books are looking for 50/50 action on both sides of the games, well you just got a peek at how it really works.


http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/bo...oint-underdogs-at-Indiana&p=784089#post784089

A) I've certainly heard bookmakers on Chad Millman's podcast state that they sometimes want to take more action on one side or another because they think they can beat the public. But as a whole, they're planning on making most of their money on the vig.

B) Your example doesn't help your case. It calls -7 greatly reduced, meaning that the book knew it should be higher. It doesn't say that they came up with 7 as the right line. Regardless, you're talking about a movement of 2.5 points, which isn't really meaningful in the discussion. If you moved Wisconsin down 2.5 points in the rankings they'd still be #9. Are you arguing that Vegas doesn't use the computers to come up with the lines? Because most of the lines are within a point or 2 of the Sagarin Predictor.

C) Lastly, Sagarin does this for a living. His model has been tweaked and tuned for 20 years. And he says:

"To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 79."

"In PURE_ELO, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very good at retro-fitting the W-L results. The PURE_ELO will be used by the BCS. However it is
less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the
score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR,
BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games."

 

[Iceland12]

A) I've certainly heard bookmakers on Chad Millman's podcast state that they sometimes want to take more action on one side or another because they think they can beat the public. But as a whole, they're planning on making most of their money on the vig."

Yeah, that addressed the issue. You're probably right.