Let me try to restate it this way:
Minnesota will be extremely lucky to make a bowl game.
Rhode Island and Nevada are terrible, and we have a 95% chance or better to run away with both of those games.
We will most likely get drilled by UNC, and the conference schedule is no doubt the toughest in the Fleck era, and might be the toughest in several decades. This is coupled with our backslide into sub-mediocrity, and the ascension of typical conference punching bags (Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois) into respectable-to-good teams.
There is a nonzero chance that we are underdogs in every conference game next year.
The QB play will no doubt be better, but I don't think that's enough to close the gap with the conference opponents on our schedule.
Looking it at right now with non-homer glasses, I see 4-8 at best.