Purdue Game Thoughts Thread

[MGGopher]

Well, the weekend is over and the MSU game and weekly rankings are behind us. PU is in front of the Gophers next. This game looked pretty scary prior to the season (and even after their week 1 tussle with PSU), and while anything could happen any given week in CFB, I feel pretty confident in Minnesota's chances. Obviously the health of their QB, AOC, will have a ton to do with the final outcome, but I still like MN to win regardless of whether he plays. From what I've seen of PU this year, they're REALLY down from last year.

• OL is struggling to both generate push in the run game and protect the QB. Staff tends to abandon the run as is typical.
• DL is generating very little pressure (really missing Karlaftis) and giving opposing QBs time to go through their progressions. PSU, Syracuse, and FAU ate them up with QBs that are a step down from Morgan, IMO. Lots of injuries, particularly on D.
• DBs are struggling...partially due to lack of pass rush, but also because they seem under-talented. I believe they're starting at least one transfer from a lower level, but possibly two.
• Jones looks like the best individual receiving threat in the B1G right now.
• AOC is probably the 3rd or 4th best QB in the league if he's healthy...but it looks dicey as to whether he plays.

I think Minnesota controls both LOS and wins comfortably, but CFB is a funny game and tought to predict. What are your thoughts?

 

[gophernut1]

Great start to this thread.

Purdue will rise and fall with O'Connell and Jones. They have the talent to beat us. I am still worried about our pash rush and not convinced O'Connell won't find time to get Jones the ball. While I love our secondary, I still think it ranks below Penn State when it comes to tight man coverage and Penn State had trouble covering Jones and co. So if they get hot and our offense turns the ball over then there is a chance for a tight game. Still, if we play our game the only way we lose if we beat ourselves and that won't happen unless the players lose focus like they did last year prior to our homecoming game. I can't imagine it will happen again.

 

[RogueGopher]

I don't think Purdue's defense is good enough to keep the lead under 10 points. Until a team can score a TD on the Gophers first team defense, I don't have much of a concern.

 

[MNVCGUY]

if we play our game the only way we lose if we beat ourselves

I want to zero in on this one line because it is exactly how I feel about our team when I look at the teams remaining on our schedule.

The only team I feel that can potentially beat us if we don't help them is Penn State and I am not even sold on that one. We can lose any game on our schedule if we play poorly, but if this team goes out and executes the way it is capable of executing, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin can't beat us.

Getting lost in the play of the offense is our defense....they are phenomenal and so friggin sound. MSU has issues on defense but their offense has some really talented receivers and an experienced QB yet could do nothing against us. Purdue's offense scares people but we have the kind of defense that matches up really well against them. And if O'Connell can't go they have no shot against our D because the backup was not impressive against a very mediocre FAU team.

I could be wrong but if we avoid a lot of key injuries, I will be shocked if we lose any games this year in which we don't beat ourselves with turnovers and mistakes. Straight up we simply have too balanced of an offense and too strong of a defense to lose to most teams in the Big Ten based on what I have seen so far this season.

We are easily the best team in the West right now and I don't even think it is that close.

 

[matt]

I think we need to go back to what works against Purdue. O’Connell and Jones will both go down to freak, non-contact injuries in the first quarter and then we roll.

 

[Triple D]

Huge game, if we win we basically knock out Purdue from contending for the West title as they would have 3 losses along with Nebraska and Northwestern to our zero losses.

I’m torn on who I want to win in the Wisconsin/Illinois game this weekend as far as helping us….. oh screw it, let’s go Illini! Put 3 losses on the Badgers!!

 

[mngolf]

Short of injuries, we win this game similar to MSU.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Huge game, if we win we basically knock out Purdue from contending for the West title as they would have 3 losses along with Nebraska and Northwestern to our zero losses.

I’m torn on who I want to win in the Wisconsin/Illinois game this weekend as far as helping us….. oh screw it, let’s go Illini! Put 3 losses on the Badgers!!

Non conference losses don't matter in terms of conference standings so 2 losses in conference won't quite eliminate teams from contention. That said, beating Purdue would eliminate them from being a major threat to us because we would have the head to head as well as a 2 loss cushion to work with. Means we would have to lose 3 conference games for them to jump us unless it was a 3+ team tiebreaker.

Illinois/Wisconsin will be an interesting one to see how it plays out. the good news is that whoever loses will have 2 conference losses on their resume.

 

[salzie]

Huge game, if we win we basically knock out Purdue from contending for the West title as they would have 3 losses along with Nebraska and Northwestern to our zero losses.

I’m torn on who I want to win in the Wisconsin/Illinois game this weekend as far as helping us….. oh screw it, let’s go Illini! Put 3 losses on the Badgers!!

always root against the badgers

 

[salzie]

I never really bought in the Purdue hype


Charlie Johnson answered question of who replaces Bell, but their defense isn't special and they can't run.

I do think they have the talent to get an upset or two, hopefully we're not one of them and they continue their dominance vs Iowa

 

[swingman]

WEST LAFAYETTE – As we start the week, 10 storylines to track as Purdue and Minnesota prepare for Saturday’s matchup at Huntington Bank Stadium:

▶ Expect Jeff Brohm to utter the words “game-time decision” for Aidan O’Connell, King Doerue, Reese Taylor, Cam Craig and Broc Thompson. Don’t be surprised if Brohm doesn’t offer any clarity.

▶ Can the Boilermakers expect similar success on the ground they had against Florida Atlantic? Probably not. Purdue rushed for 188 yards, but the Owls aren’t a Big Ten defense. The Gophers are allowing 61.8 rushing yards through four games and limited Michigan State to 38 yards. Minnesota is one of two teams not to give up a rushing touchdown this season. Iowa is the other team.

▶ Quarterback Tanner Morgan has owned Purdue’s defense. In four games, he’s completed 66.7% of his passes for 968 yards with six touchdowns and one interception, which happened in 2018.

▶ Although the Gophers lost top receiver Chris Autman-Bell, Morgan connected with 10 different players in the win over Michigan State. Excellent balance by Morgan and the offense to spread the ball around.

▶ Will see improved play from Purdue’s cornerbacks? This position has struggled during the first four games and now will be severely tested by Minnesota’s RPO game. The tackling from the secondary has been lacking as well.

▶ How will the Gophers try to take away Charlie Jones? No one has found the right formula through four games as Jones leads the nation in receptions per game (10.3), is tied for the top spot with seven touchdowns and is third averaging 133.3 yards per game.

▶ Is Purdue’s defense up to the challenge of slowing Minnesota’s running game? The Gophers lead the Big Ten averaging 294.5 yards, but three games were against cupcakes. Still, they rolled up 240 yards on the ground against Michigan State on Saturday. Mohamed Ibrahim has gained at least 100 yards in 12 straight games. He’s rushed for102 and 155 yards in two games against the Boilermakers.

▶ If O’Connell returns, would Brohm consider using Austin Burton for a series or two, similar to what happened last year at Iowa? And if O’Connell isn’t back for this week, will Brohm play Michael Alaimo again? Alaimo played one series against FAU.

▶ Based on its performance at MSU and the upcoming schedule, Minnesota is the favorite to win the Big Ten West. Along with the Spartans, the Gophers’ cross-over games are Penn State (road) and Rutgers (home). They host Iowa and travel to Wisconsin to end the season. They also have road games at Illinois and Nebraska. It's manageable.

▶ Is the year Purdue finally wins at Minnesota? Since its new stadium opened in 2009, the Boilermakers are 0-6 at TCF Bank Stadium and now Huntington Bank Stadium. In those six meetings, the Gophers have scored 35, 44, 39, 44, 41 and 34 points. Since 2008, Purdue is 3-10 against Minnesota regardless of the location.

 

[swingman]

post above link:

Purdue football at Minnesota: 1st and 10

The Boilermakers are 0-6 at Minnesota since 2009

www.jconline.com

 

[TruthSeeker]

Great start to this thread.

Purdue will rise and fall with O'Connell and Jones. They have the talent to beat us. I am still worried about our pash rush and not convinced O'Connell won't find time to get Jones the ball. While I love our secondary, I still think it ranks below Penn State when it comes to tight man coverage and Penn State had trouble covering Jones and co. So if they get hot and our offense turns the ball over then there is a chance for a tight game. Still, if we play our game the only way we lose if we beat ourselves and that won't happen unless the players lose focus like they did last year prior to our homecoming game. I can't imagine it will happen again.

Excellent post.

 

[Gophers_4life]

No. Matter. What.

We are in no position to overlook ANYONE.


I'm not saying we are.

Purdue is still a Big Ten team. They will still have talent on the roster. They can still surprise someone, on any given Saturday.


They feel they've been "burned" against Minnesota in the past, and will want this one really, really badly.

They're going to be playing with their hair on fire.


If we come out thinking we've got it made in the shade ...... well, let's just not do that!

 

[Homerpalooza]

I think we have more talent, better rushing and Tanner is playing exceptionally with his reads. Geary, Spann Ford, Wright etc all are very capable and going up and getting contested balls.

I think Charlie Jones is fantastic. AOC has his moments but I’m not sure they beat FAU if he was in.

My biggest concern is we are now ranked and once you are ranked the most important game of your opponents year is beating a ranked opponent. We will have extra targets on us.

Stay healthy Goohers!

 

[Jack jones]

I want to zero in on this one line because it is exactly how I feel about our team when I look at the teams remaining on our schedule.

The only team I feel that can potentially beat us if we don't help them is Penn State and I am not even sold on that one. We can lose any game on our schedule if we play poorly, but if this team goes out and executes the way it is capable of executing, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin can't beat us.

Getting lost in the play of the offense is our defense....they are phenomenal and so friggin sound. MSU has issues on defense but their offense has some really talented receivers and an experienced QB yet could do nothing against us. Purdue's offense scares people but we have the kind of defense that matches up really well against them. And if O'Connell can't go they have no shot against our D because the backup was not impressive against a very mediocre FAU team.

I could be wrong but if we avoid a lot of key injuries, I will be shocked if we lose any games this year in which we don't beat ourselves with turnovers and mistakes. Straight up we simply have too balanced of an offense and too strong of a defense to lose to most teams in the Big Ten based on what I have seen so far this season.

We are easily the best team in the West right now and I don't even think it is that close.

Ask PJ, more games are lost than won. I am expecting a very tight 3 point game

 

[Gophers1992]

Huge game, if we win we basically knock out Purdue from contending for the West title as they would have 3 losses along with Nebraska and Northwestern to our zero losses.

I’m torn on who I want to win in the Wisconsin/Illinois game this weekend as far as helping us….. oh screw it, let’s go Illini! Put 3 losses on the Badgers!!

Too early in the season to wonder which win would help us more. I still see the Badgers as a bigger threat than Illinois though, and plus, it's the Badgers. Rare occasion I will root for Bret to get a W.

 

[noamfromm]

Well, the weekend is over and the MSU game and weekly rankings are behind us. PU is in front of the Gophers next. This game looked pretty scary prior to the season (and even after their week 1 tussle with PSU), and while anything could happen any given week in CFB, I feel pretty confident in Minnesota's chances. Obviously the health of their QB, AOC, will have a ton to do with the final outcome, but I still like MN to win regardless of whether he plays. From what I've seen of PU this year, they're REALLY down from last year.

• OL is struggling to both generate push in the run game and protect the QB. Staff tends to abandon the run as is typical.
• DL is generating very little pressure (really missing Karlaftis) and giving opposing QBs time to go through their progressions. PSU, Syracuse, and FAU ate them up with QBs that are a step down from Morgan, IMO. Lots of injuries, particularly on D.
• DBs are struggling...partially due to lack of pass rush, but also because they seem under-talented. I believe they're starting at least one transfer from a lower level, but possibly two.
• Jones looks like the best individual receiving threat in the B1G right now.
• AOC is probably the 3rd or 4th best QB in the league if he's healthy...but it looks dicey as to whether he plays.

I think Minnesota controls both LOS and wins comfortably, but CFB is a funny game and tought to predict. What are your thoughts?

Oline actually looked good in 6 oline sets against FAU -- they really leaned on the run without O'Connell. Additionally Jalen Graham, their best safety has been out -- and yes they are starting Bryce Hampton and Chris Jefferson both DII transfers. Jefferson played at Purdue in '21 while Hampton is new this year.

 

[Gophers1992]

No. Matter. What.

We are in no position to overlook ANYONE.


I'm not saying we are.

Purdue is still a Big Ten team. They will still have talent on the roster. They can still surprise someone, on any given Saturday.


They feel they've been "burned" against Minnesota in the past, and will want this one really, really badly.

They're going to be playing with their hair on fire.


If we come out thinking we've got it made in the shade ...... well, let's just not do that!

Agreed with this, and not as a knock on our team, but the reality is if you look around the country, every week there are good teams losing games they shouldn't. Just this last weekend Oklahoma lost at home to an average Kansas State team. Texas A&M lost to App State earlier this year, Alabama almost lost to Texas, etc. We absolutely are better than Purdue, but nothing is guaranteed.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Agreed with this, and not as a knock on our team, but the reality is if you look around the country, every week there are good teams losing games they shouldn't. Just this last weekend Oklahoma lost at home to an average Kansas State team. Texas A&M lost to App State earlier this year, Alabama almost lost to Texas, etc. We absolutely are better than Purdue, but nothing is guaranteed.

This is where Fleck's one game championship season mentality really comes into play. That combined with the veteran leadership on both sides of the ball should help keep the team from losing focus.

But yeah, anyone can beat anyone in the Big Ten and there is no such thing as an easy game no matter who you are playing. That said, it is really nice being the team that has to mess up in order to give the other team a chance as opposed to being the team hoping the other one screws up. We have been that second team for a long time, fun to see how it looks from the other side of that equation.

 

[Governor Sibley]

I think we need to go back to what works against Purdue. O’Connell and Jones will both go down to freak, non-contact injuries in the first quarter and then we roll.

This has worked—why mess with it.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Huge game, if we win we basically knock out Purdue from contending for the West title as they would have 3 losses along with Nebraska and Northwestern to our zero losses.

I’m torn on who I want to win in the Wisconsin/Illinois game this weekend as far as helping us….. oh screw it, let’s go Illini! Put 3 losses on the Badgers!!

Anxious to see how good Illinois is. At this point I think we have no clue. A little bit of a wildcard going in to play them on the road but I like that the Gophers will have their Bye week going into Champaign while Illinois will be coming off back to back physical games against Wisky and Iowa.

Not much doubt AOC plays for Purdue this weekend. I'd be shocked if Brohm just sat him for the week because they thought they didn't need him against FAU.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Anxious to see how good Illinois is. At this point I think we have no clue. A little bit of a wildcard going in to play them on the road but I like that the Gophers will have their Bye week going into Champaign while Illinois will be coming off back to back physical games against Wisky and Iowa.

Not much doubt AOC plays for Purdue this weekend. I'd be shocked if Brohm just sat him for the week because they thought they didn't need him against FAU.

Illinois is a bit of an unknown but they did manage to lose to Indiana already. My gut instinct is they are a middle of the pack team in the West. Better than the bottom, not as good as the top, capable of being dangerous but very beatable.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Purdue is a less talented version of Michigan St with an equally overrated head coach. It doesn't matter if O'Connell plays or not.

PJ Fleck and Tanner Morgan own Purdue. This one won't be close.

 

[upnorthkid]

Illinois is a bit of an unknown but they did manage to lose to Indiana already. My gut instinct is they are a middle of the pack team in the West. Better than the bottom, not as good as the top, capable of being dangerous but very beatable.

I'd want Illinois to win. Have a cross over left with Michigan who should destroy them and Illinois isn't good enough to have any "gimmies" on the schedule.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Purdue is a less talented version of Michigan St with an equally overrated head coach. It doesn't matter if O'Connell plays or not.

PJ Fleck and Tanner Morgan own Purdue. This one won't be close.

I know this is semantics, but Mel Tucker is paid Nick Saban type of money and there are some major red flags with that program.

 

[noamfromm]

I think we have more talent, better rushing and Tanner is playing exceptionally with his reads. Geary, Spann Ford, Wright etc all are very capable and going up and getting contested balls.

I think Charlie Jones is fantastic. AOC has his moments but I’m not sure they beat FAU if he was in.

My biggest concern is we are now ranked and once you are ranked the most important game of your opponents year is beating a ranked opponent. We will have extra targets on us.

Stay healthy Goohers!

what about the backup's performance do you think O'Connell could not have exceeded?

 

[noamfromm]

I know this is semantics, but Mel Tucker is paid Nick Saban type of money and there are some major red flags with that program.

What are the red flags that you see with Sparty?

 

[DarrenTheGreek]

Purdue is a less talented version of Michigan St with an equally overrated head coach. It doesn't matter if O'Connell plays or not.

PJ Fleck and Tanner Morgan own Purdue. This one won't be close.

I'm going to disagree with you here. I think this is a sneaky game that Minnesota needs to watch out for. Purdue can be a dangerous team and just like PJ's quest to slay the Iowa dragon, Brohm desperately wants to beat PJ. Purdue didn't look good against the Owls on Saturday but their other 2 losses were to Penn State and Syracuse in the waning moments and both those teams are undefeated. Purdue is a dangerous club and I would shy away from the 10.5 points we're laying. Our last 3 wins against then have all been one possession games.

I expect a dogfight this week.

 

[Tully55]

No. Matter. What.

We are in no position to overlook ANYONE.

This is why Mr. Shtick, Mr. Snake-Oil Salesman, Mr Slogan, Mr. Brewster 2.0 (aka. Coach HC PJ Fleck) uses the expression, "Right now we are 0-0 in the (insert team) Championship Week."