PSU Should Have Probably Won That Game

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hello-world said:
You're right, we should just ignore the fact that the Gophers weren't able to run the ball for most of the day "because they were winning."
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They weren't able to run the ball because they put decided to put extra guys in the box. Which is why PSU got thrown all over, the basics of the RPO. Not to mention they ran it better than any team had against PSU.
 

Johnnyboy18 said:
They weren't able to run the ball because they put decided to put extra guys in the box. Which is why PSU got thrown all over, the basics of the RPO.
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Yeah I edited my comment late, but my response to that is that if the Gophers want to be a good game management team then they need to be able to run the ball in running situations. They weren't able to do that and SP+ penalized them.

If you want to be a good college football team then you need to be able to control the game. Minnesota didn't do a good job of that in the 4th quarter.

They will need to run the ball in running situations sometimes, loaded box or no.
 

hello-world said:
You can ignore stats all you want, but don't cherry pick the good ones.
SP+ looked at this game and adjusted our ranking down and Penn State's up for a reason.
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I gave you the stats that matter. Our offensive and defensive efficiency was better than theirs in this particular game, if yards per play matter (they do). We also had more explosive plays and forced more turnovers. PSU was fortunate to get within 5 points.

What is your overall agenda? Are you arguing that we’re overrated? If that’s the case, just come out and say it.
 

PitinoFan said:
I gave you the stats that matter. Our offensive and defensive efficiency was better than theirs in this particular game, if yards per play matter (they do). We also had more explosive plays and forced more turnovers. PSU was fortunate to get within 5 points.

What is your overall agenda? Are you arguing that we’re overrated? If that’s the case, just come out and say it.
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Yes, we are overrated right now and I think we're probably going to drop one of Iowa or Wisconsin.
I would love to be wrong, and PJ has been working miracles all year, but I don't think he's going to make it to Indy undefeated.
I have them ATS at Iowa, but I would not be surprised if they lose this game.

I'm not an overly negative Gopher fan. I had the over on win total this year. I had Minnesota ATS vPSU and vNEB, and I think Fleck is on the right trajectory, but nothing I have seen so far tells me that this team is ready to compete with the tOSU's of the world.
 
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hello-world said:
You can ignore stats all you want, but don't cherry pick the good ones.
SP+ looked at this game and adjusted our ranking down and Penn State's up for a reason.
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Sucks that the gophers lost the SP+ game. But I am happy that they won the football game. I am a fan of football games. The object of the game is to outscore the opponent before time runs out. At the end, whichever team has higher amount of points wins the game.

I am not a big fan of SP+ games, but I am happy for you that your team won.

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SP+ gave MN a 74% win expectancy. I think the (mild) overall team rankings movements have more to do with some unknown weighting of certain factors eg special teams issues. Interesting tale of two halves though. Definitely a game that could have gone either way at the end but all that matters is this time circumstances and execution went MN’s way like it has all season.


 

hello-world said:
I'm sorry but did y'all watch the Gophers on defense this week? It wasn't pretty.
Other than the turnovers, they looked bad.
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Why do you spend time on this board? It’s obvious you just spend the most of your time trolling- I’m just trying to figure out who your team is or are you just a universal hater.


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PitinoFan said:
Good offenses move the ball against good defenses. Did you watch the Alabama-LSU game? We moved the ball at will against them too. These games come down to explosive plays and turnovers. We got the better end of both.

A couple weeks ago, you were trying to convince us how good Maryland is. This fanbase is really something else...
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He’s not a fan


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HoustonTXGopher said:
I haven't heard it discussed at all, but if PSU would have just traditionally taken their points when offered to them they probably remain unbeaten:

Had they kicked the extra point instead of going for two......4 point differential

Had they kicked the field goal on fourth down inside the ten yard line.....1 point differential

Now, they only need a field goal to win at the end of the game instead of a touchdown. -2 point differential

I am so glad it all played out like it did, but it is another reminder in football to take your (somewhat) sure points and let the game play out.

GO GOPHERS!
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Bold statement but hard to argue. Also our 3 interceptions-- they accounted for multiple points.
 



I don’t understand why people like the OP watch the gophers!? The best team won that day! But according to the OP we won by accident and should apologize for having the better score! We have one of the best QBs in the nation. One of the best WRs core in nation. One of the best DBs core in nation and we keep winning by accident!

I love how the clowns like the OP come out in full force. We’re finally having an amazing season due to our personal and people think we shouldn’t be here or belong because it hasn’t happened in many years! Yet it’s these same people like the OP who whine like schoolgirls when we lose to Nebraska or Purdue and say to themselves I wish the Gophers were good but this is good enough!
 

This is usually the type of thread we get after a Gopher loss. How the Gophers really should’ve won the game along with how the referees screwed the Gophers.
 

Yardage total is more important than points scored, just like shots on goal are more important than goals scored. Everyone knows that.
 




If not going conservative at the end of the game was so guaranteed to (continue to) be successful, why did we do it?


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Who cares? We Won Baby!

The only thing I was upset about was PJ and Kirk deciding to take their foot off the gas and nurse a 12 point lead in the second half. The play calling became predictable and PSU was able to shut down our offense instead of us dictating the what we wanted to do. I'm not a big fan of doing this! Keep the foot on the accelerator and keep the momentum!

Look at Ohio State, up big against Maryland and they onside kick? Is Woody Hayes back in charge? That's just killer mean.

Our defense had to play a lot of downs in the second half and looked gassed. Credit those defensive backs who made some AMAZING p0lays in the red zone to win the game!
 


HoustonTXGopher said:
I haven't heard it discussed at all, but if PSU would have just traditionally taken their points when offered to them they probably remain unbeaten:

Had they kicked the extra point instead of going for two......4 point differential

Had they kicked the field goal on fourth down inside the ten yard line.....1 point differential

Now, they only need a field goal to win at the end of the game instead of a touchdown. -2 point differential

I am so glad it all played out like it did, but it is another reminder in football to take your (somewhat) sure points and let the game play out.

GO GOPHERS!
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Franklin chased those points because he didn’t feel like his defense could stop our offense. A gamble that backfired for PSU.
Going for 2 made sense at the time but when they didn’t get it, that forced them into passing on the fg later. Good thing our D stepped up on the 2 point conversion.


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Spot On

GuyFawkes said:
yeah dude, because the rest of the game would have gone exactly the same way despite the circumstances being changed. Give me a break. What would have happened if Tanner would have not over thrown TJ in the endzone? How about if the refs called the delay of game? Hell what if PSU converted that 2pt play? No one knows because that is not what happened, you can't go back in time and change the circumstances and act as if everything else would have played out the same way. There have been a lot of dumb posts this week, but this one might take the cake
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You are absolutely right. This was a classic match-up of 2 very good teams, and , as it should be, it was decided by a handful of key plays and/or coaching decisions. Had any of those plays gone the other team's way, the outcome certainly "could" have changed. All of the things said in this string can be said about ANY close game. To say that Penn State "should" have won because of several key plays, is totally ludicrous. Heck, as long as we're playing "what-if", what if the Gophers had started Kamal Martin on defense. What if pigs had wings!!!. The Gophers won, and that is the main thing, you cannot say they didn't deserve it.
 

I dont think we should have gone as conservative as we did at the end, because it gave them a shot I dont think they should have. That said, that's what we did, and we still won the game even though that affected yardage numbers. From where I sat, I thought we looked better. If we replayed the game tomorrow, I'd like our chances.
 


Gophers were the better team over course of the game + Penn State should have won the game at the end.

50/50 coin toss in the end when you combine the two, and the Gophers won it.
 
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bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I dont think we should have gone as conservative as we did at the end, because it gave them a shot I dont think they should have. That said, that's what we did, and we still won the game even though that affected yardage numbers. From where I sat, I thought we looked better. If we replayed the game tomorrow, I'd like our chances.
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I just replayed the game, and we won again!

Ps: I still can't believe John Wayne fell off his horse every time I watched that movie.... miracles happen I guess.

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HoustonTXGopher said:
I haven't heard it discussed at all, but if PSU would have just traditionally taken their points when offered to them they probably remain unbeaten:

Had they kicked the extra point instead of going for two......4 point differential

Had they kicked the field goal on fourth down inside the ten yard line.....1 point differential

Now, they only need a field goal to win at the end of the game instead of a touchdown. -2 point differential

I am so glad it all played out like it did, but it is another reminder in football to take your (somewhat) sure points and let the game play out.

GO GOPHERS!
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I've raised this issue on this board--that PSU outgained us and suffered 3 interceptions and might well have won that game but for luck. And I was attacked by some, as if by alzheimers patients throwing S@#$ here in my nursing home.
 

hello-world said:
You can ignore stats all you want, but don't cherry pick the good ones.
SP+ looked at this game and adjusted our ranking down and Penn State's up for a reason.
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I don't know the methodology details behind SP+, but I'm guessing there are important game-changing impacts the stat doesn't capture like situational game tactics (milking the clock with a lead) and routinely ballhawking on defense (Winfield et al second in the nation in interceptions). One can't deny PSU's explosive plays on the last two drives while MN got conservative. There's a reason they are a top 10 team. I won't easily accept the thread title though. Instead of saying PSU "should have probably won" I'd say "could have won". One can't deny the two factors above.
 
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I blame the endless number of computer rankings for this level of thinking. People can’t believe their own eyes because of what an algorithm says should happen, or in this case, “should have” happened. Those same rankings punish a team for going conservative and getting stuffed multiple times at the LOS when they’re tying to run out the clock. Personally, I don’t like how conservative they went, but it’s somewhat understandable. A pick six or a sack/fumble could have easily handed them the game.

At halftime, we had a 5+ yards per play differential advantage over the #4 team in the country. That’s almost unheard of, regardless of the teams involved. That’s probably what we’ll see when Ohio State plays Rutgers.
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
Thats not the point!
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I chatted with several PSU fans on the way out of the stadium and they were all really down on Franklin while praising how good the Gophers are. I agree with your points, but maybe the Gophers would have opened it up again the last few drives.
 

PitinoFan said:
I blame the endless number of computer rankings for this level of thinking. People can’t believe their own eyes because of what an algorithm says should happen, or in this case, “should have” happened. Those same rankings punish a team for going conservative and getting stuffed multiple times at the LOS when they’re tying to run out the clock. Personally, I don’t like how conservative they went, but it’s somewhat understandable. A pick six or a sack/fumble could have easily handed them the game.

At halftime, we had a 5+ yards per play differential advantage over the #4 team in the country. That’s almost unheard of, regardless of the teams involved. That’s probably what we’ll see when Ohio State plays Rutgers.
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Same. All those around us were questioning why the Gophs got so conservative. Ghosts of Denny Green in the air.
 

I don't think we should have gone conservative as soon as we did. 12 points is not that big of lead and there was a lot of time left. Wish we would of gotten into PSU territory before going conservative.

But hey! It all worked out! I'm sure PJ was thinking, "I love it when a plan comes together!"
 

go4rob said:
You are absolutely right. This was a classic match-up of 2 very good teams, and , as it should be, it was decided by a handful of key plays and/or coaching decisions. Had any of those plays gone the other team's way, the outcome certainly "could" have changed. All of the things said in this string can be said about ANY close game. To say that Penn State "should" have won because of several key plays, is totally ludicrous. Heck, as long as we're playing "what-if", what if the Gophers had started Kamal Martin on defense. What if pigs had wings!!!. The Gophers won, and that is the main thing, you cannot say they didn't deserve it.
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I believe that we will find that out on Saturday night.
 

A twelve point lead is way, way different than an eleven point lead. Totally changes a game plan.
 

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