Proof that the ACC winning the challenge. ...

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SelectionSunday

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doesn't mean squat when it come to which conference will get more bids come NCAA Tournament time.

Is the ACC a better conference right now? To that I would answer a definitive yes? Does it mean the ACC will get more bids (read: have more NCAA tournament-worthy squads) come Selection Sunday? Absolutely not.

Chew on this. Since the ACC/Big Ten Challenge's inception in 1999-2000, which conference has earned more NCAA Tournament bids? If your answer was the ACC, you would be wrong. The tally?

Big 10 = 47 bids
ACC = 43 bids

In 5 of the 9 seasons, the Big 10 earned more bids. Two other seasons, the conferences received the same amount of bids.

If I had to guess what the Challenge proves, it's that the ACC's best teams (Duke and Carolina) & bottom teams are generally superior to the Big 10's top squads & bottom-feeders, but that the Big 10 is stronger in the middle. And the middle is where the major conferences earn their additional at-large bids.

Remember that next time someone complains about the Big 10 getting screwed. Again, teams get at-large bids, not conferences.
 

Selection,

Has the BT ever come as close to winning as they did this year?
 

Keep in mind that for the first 5 years of the challenge (99/00 - 03/04), the Big Ten had 2 more teams than the ACC. In 04/05 they were the same, and from 05/06 - 07/08 the ACC had one more. So through the duration of the challenge (excluding this year) the Big Ten has had 7 more 'number of teams' in the pool to choose from.

If you ignore the actual number and break it down by percentage, the rate of NCAA bids per conference based on # of teams is nearly identical, with the Big Ten holding the slight advantage. Big Ten = 47.5%, ACC = 46.7%. My hunch would be that if you took the original ACC teams (prior to 2004) and compared just them straight up against the Big Ten, they would be ahead. I think the ACC watered down the strenth of their conference a bit when the Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College joined. They have a combined .466 conference winning percentage since joining the ACC.
 

Recruiting factor...

Last night on the Penn State broadcast on the 360 I believe, the analysts had mentioned that since its inception (the challenge), a number of top recruits from the big 10 area have chosen acc schools over their hometown schools. While this could be coincidence that the acc happened to win every one, they noted that it was likely a factor in some of these recruit's decisions. That could be a downfall for us in the challenge. Any thoughts?
 

GH fan, while your question was addressed to SS, I'll answer, from cncmin's post below, there have been five years in the challenge where the margin of victory for the ACC has been 1 game.

Also, keep in mind that while the bids per conference have been similar, the Big Ten has had two teams who have earned a NCAA berth during the span of the Challenge (Michigan and Northwestern) and two other teams that earned just one berth in that time span (Minnesota and Penn State). I do not have the ACC's numbers in front of me, but I would imagine that every team in the ACC has made the NCAA at least once and perhaps only Virginia, Clemson, and Florida State have made the NCAA's just once.

I think SS hit it on the head-the ACC tends to be stronger at the top, with not quite the bottom feeders the Big 10 have, but the middle of the conference has been stronger in the Big 10. By the time NCAA selection time rolls around, these games of course factor in the decision, but the teams can be quite different than what we see in early December.

That all being said, I'm sick of the Big 10 losing the Challenge, if for no other reason that hearing it over and over again. But using this as the litmus test for which conference is better is misguided.
 


SelectionSunday said:
doesn't mean squat when it come to which conference will get more bids come NCAA Tournament time.

Is the ACC a better conference right now? To that I would answer a definitive yes? Does it mean the ACC will get more bids (read: have more NCAA tournament-worthy squads) come Selection Sunday? Absolutely not.

Chew on this. Since the ACC/Big Ten Challenge's inception in 1999-2000, which conference has earned more NCAA Tournament bids? If your answer was the ACC, you would be wrong. The tally?

Big 10 = 47 bids
ACC = 43 bids

In 5 of the 9 seasons, the Big 10 earned more bids. Two other seasons, the conferences received the same amount of bids.

If I had to guess what the Challenge proves, it's that the ACC's best teams (Duke and Carolina) & bottom teams are generally superior to the Big 10's top squads & bottom-feeders, but that the Big 10 is stronger in the middle. And the middle is where the major conferences earn their additional at-large bids.

Remember that next time someone complains about the Big 10 getting screwed. Again, teams get at-large bids, not conferences.
Click to expand...

Excellent stuff, SS. Just to play Devil's Advocate....what if the Big Ten had won a few of these Challenges and done well. Could you not argue that those middle or bottom teams could have added a few more bids? Maybe had the Big Ten added a few more significant non-conference wins in this Challenge, then maybe those numbers would have the Big Ten with 51 bids and the ACC with 39 bids. For example, just last year, I think if Ohio State had beaten North Carolina in the Challenge, that the Buckeyes become the fifth Big Ten team into the 65-team field. That ONE game would have likely done it. I suppose there might be 2-3 other instances over the ten-year history of this event where that could be the case?? Maybe? And, if so, then doesn't that make the Challenge relevant to Selection Sunday in March? Just message board fodder.
 

To answer your question Gorton's, I think UNC and Duke will always be formidable when they come into the Big 10's backyard looking for talent, with players such as Jon Scheyer, Tyler Zeller, and Bobby Frasor as current examples and the likes of Sean May and Josh McRoberts recent examples. Both programs are breathing heavily on Harrison Barnes out of Iowa too.

Outside of those two, I don't see a huge impact on ACC stealing recruits out of the Big 10's backyard, and I think it'll become even less so now that Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, and Iowa have seemingly strengthened their head coaches within the last couple years.

The national program that concerns me more when they come sniffing around is Kansas. Bill Self and Roy Williams before has plucked some standouts from Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Illinois.
 

North Carolina does nice job plucking Midwest guys every few years.

Tyler Hansbrough (Missouri)
Sean May (Indiana)
Jawad Williams (Ohio)
Tyler Zeller (Indiana)
Bobby Frazor (Illinois)
Jonathon Holmes (Indiana)
Eric Montross (Indiana)
Adam Boone (Minnesota)
 

"And, if so, then doesn't that make the Challenge relevant to Selection Sunday in March?"

TJ, yes, I agree that the Challenge is relevant to Selection Sunday, but to me no moreso than say, the Ole Miss-West Virginia game in Biloxi was last night. All games are relevant to Selection Sunday in one way or another. Though advertised as ACC vs. Big 10 (and rightly so), with regards to NCAA Tournament selection, all it really is is one individual team vs. another individual team, both trying to improve their resumes.

I agree with you that the Buckeyes likely would have been in the Field of 65 last season if they beat Carolina. But that's a big "if." Bottom line is they didn't. I'm sure there have been similar scenarios for the ACC, where a loss in the Challenge to a Big 10 school played a factor in pushing an ACC team off the bubble & into the NIT. Virginia Tech @ Penn State last year comes immediately to mind.
 



SelectionSunday said:
"And, if so, then doesn't that make the Challenge relevant to Selection Sunday in March?"

TJ, yes, I agree that the Challenge is relevant to Selection Sunday, but to me no moreso than say, the Ole Miss-West Virginia game in Biloxi was last night. All games are relevant to Selection Sunday in one way or another. Though advertised as ACC vs. Big 10 (and rightly so), with regards to NCAA Tournamernt selection, it's one individual team vs. another individual team.

I agree with you that the Buckeyes likely would have been in the Field of 65 last season if they beat Carolina. But that's a big "if." Bottom line is they didn't. I'm sure there have been similar scenarios for the ACC, where a loss in the Challenge to a Big 10 school played a factor in pushing an ACC team off the bubble & into the NIT. Virginia Tech @ Penn State last year comes immediately to mind.
Click to expand...

Excellent points.
 

GortonsFisherman011 said:
Last night on the Penn State broadcast on the 360 I believe, the analysts had mentioned that since its inception (the challenge), a number of top recruits from the big 10 area have chosen acc schools over their hometown schools. While this could be coincidence that the acc happened to win every one, they noted that it was likely a factor in some of these recruit's decisions. That could be a downfall for us in the challenge. Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

Ralph Sampson III
 

GortonsFisherman011 said:
Last night on the Penn State broadcast on the 360 I believe, the analysts had mentioned that since its inception (the challenge), a number of top recruits from the big 10 area have chosen acc schools over their hometown schools. While this could be coincidence that the acc happened to win every one, they noted that it was likely a factor in some of these recruit's decisions. That could be a downfall for us in the challenge. Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

I heard this too, and laughed out loud. First off, is there any actual evidence that this has become a problem? Are more top end midwest kids heading to the ACC than before? I'd like to see any data he has to support the claim. And if it is happening, the school/program itself has way more bearing than any made-for-tv challenge could possibly have. Using Dook or UNC as an example is alot different than Clemson or FSU. Have they benefitted in midwest recruiting because of this?

No way did Sean May spurn IU for UNC because Wake beat Minnesota. He chose UNC, and it sure wasn't because the ACC won the challenge.

At best it may be symptom of the ACC being a better league (arguably), but it is absolutely not the cause of losing recruits to ACC schools.
 

We have Sampson III, who is from ACC country along with Carter, who is from nowhere near the midwest. PSU has three guys from down south. Illinois has 3. Wisconsin, 1. Iowa 2. Michigan 1. Purdue 1. MSU 1. Indiana 2.

Acc guys from the midwest: Clemson none, Duke 1. UNC 3, Wake 2, FSU 1. NCSU 3. Ga Tech 1. BC 1. Miami 1. MD 1. Va Tech 1. VA 2. With just a cursory glance at the rosters, it looks like there are more Nigerians/other west africans in the ACC than mid western kids.
 



The Dukes and UNCs of the world can go in and pluck a few guys from the Midwest. But, it isn't enough to scrap the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. If the Challenge is terminated, it will have nothing to do with Duke and UNC getting Midwest kids. They will be able to do that with or without the Challenge.
 

If anything, Duke and UNC can raid the West Coast and NYC/NJ, neither of which are in Big Ten or ACC country (well, Duke is South Jersey, but you get my point).
 

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