Preseason game be game analysis...

[Big Ten Mind]

Here's my brief game by game W/L and why for the Gophers: (probably not as optimistic as many but trying to keep it real)

Eastern Ill - W (their quality QB gone and simply not as talented or deep)
Middle TN State - W (Tennessee stinks so without doing any research gotta believe MTST no better)
@ TCU - L (most here will call it a W but despite likely missing their stud DE, they'll pack a defense at home)
San Jose State - W (QB Fales is gone and Gophs should be able to dominate at line of scrimmage and run all over them)
@ Michigan - L (this isn't your daddy's Wolverine program but still have recruited very well over last three years and that has to payoff at some point - or say goodbye to Brady Hoke)
Northwestern - L (match-up opponent with explosive RB in Venric Mark who sat out last years game...could have gone either way)
Purdue - W (bad team with a few weapons on offense but little else)
@ Illinois - W - Illini have a Oky State transfer QB that is legit but Beckman knows how to lose
Iowa - L (got dominated last year by them at LOS and not sure that changes much with who they return - should be close but give more experienced QB the nod)
tOSU - L (if Miller is healthy - and that's big if, Buckeyes by 2+ touchdowns)
@ Nebraska - W (beat them at home last year with banged up Martinez/Abdullah, other than Gregory think DL is a bit vulnerable)
@ Wisconson - L (wanted to say W but if Gordon and/or Clement are healthy will be tough to win at Camp Randall - they do have to replace front 7 but expect it to be above average)

There you go - 6-6 Illinois and NW could flip or win both but feel ceiling is 7 and floor is 5...just not sure this is the year for a true breakout (ala Fry in '81, Alverz in '93, Barnett in '95 et al)

 

[Ole]

Here's my brief game by game W/L and why for the Gophers: (probably not as optimistic as many but trying to keep it real)

Eastern Ill - W (their quality QB gone and simply not as talented or deep)
Middle TN State - W (Tennessee stinks so without doing any research gotta believe MTST no better)
@ TCU - L (most here will call it a W but despite likely missing their stud DE, they'll pack a defense at home)
San Jose State - W (QB Fales is gone and Gophs should be able to dominate at line of scrimmage and run all over them)
@ Michigan - L (this isn't your daddy's Wolverine program but still have recruited very well over last three years and that has to payoff at some point - or say goodbye to Brady Hoke)
Northwestern - L (match-up opponent with explosive RB in Venric Mark who sat out last years game...could have gone either way)
Purdue - W (bad team with a few weapons on offense but little else)
@ Illinois - W - Illini have a Oky State transfer QB that is legit but Beckman knows how to lose
Iowa - L (got dominated last year by them at LOS and not sure that changes much with who they return - should be close but give more experienced QB the nod)
tOSU - L (if Miller is healthy - and that's big if, Buckeyes by 2+ touchdowns)
@ Nebraska - W (beat them at home last year with banged up Martinez/Abdullah, other than Gregory think DL is a bit vulnerable)
@ Wisconson - L (wanted to say W but if Gordon and/or Clement are healthy will be tough to win at Camp Randall - they do have to replace front 7 but expect it to be above average)

There you go - 6-6 Illinois and NW could flip or win both but feel ceiling is 7 and floor is 5...just not sure this is the year for a true breakout (ala Fry in '81, Alverz in '93, Barnett in '95 et al)

There's plenty of time for prognosticating before the season starts, but I disagree we have a ceiling.
TCU hasn't seen us before it's going to be two teams feeling each other out for the first part of the game, low scoring on the road makes it a toss up to me.

Michigan is again getting the benefit of the doubt from everyone. I'm not sure they've earned that anymore. They're o line is still going to be a weakness for them, we'd need a few bounces to go our way, but keep in mind Mitch and the whole team have played at the big house before now.

Venric mark isn't going to be the difference, we've matched up well with NW ever since Kill took over, I think we straight up beat them this year, no doubts about how or what if.

Iowa easily could have lost last year too, people act like it was a 30 pt blowout, but it was poor play calling and passing that doomed us in that game, good matchup, but a toss up.

The same can be said for wisky and Nebraska, neither of those are gimme losses, tough? Yep. But certainly winnable if we can run the ball and play good d.

OSU is the only game I fail to see any way of winning on our schedule, and like you say if Miller gets dinged again who knows. We get them at home too.

Ceiling of 11, certainly expecting 6-9 but I saw our squad compete well down the stretch last year post Michigan. If that team shows up week 1 and doesn't regress we're in for a fun but tough schedule.

 

[FireDaveLee]

One thing I like about your picks: there probably will be a game that the Gophers win where most say they'll lose (Nebraska) and one that they'll lose that most say they'll win (Northwestern).

Of the 8 Big Ten games, I really only see 2 that the Gophers, in all likelihood, "should" win....Purdue & Illinois. The rest, they "can" win (even OSU).

Personally, I'm a bit more bullish on the Gophers beating Iowa & losing to Nebraska. I also really think the Gophers have a realistic chance @ Michigan.

 

[Big Ten Mind]

One thing I like about your picks: there probably will be a game that the Gophers win where most say they'll lose (Nebraska) and one that they'll lose that most say they'll win (Northwestern).

Of the 8 Big Ten games, I really only see 2 that the Gophers, in all likelihood, "should" win....Purdue & Illinois. The rest, they "can" win (even OSU).

Personally, I'm a bit more bullish on the Gophers beating Iowa & losing to Nebraska. I also really think the Gophers have a realistic chance @ Michigan.

FireDL,

I see where you're coming from and Michigan is as vulnerable as them been since the Rich Rod years...keep in mind nearly every other B10 teams looks at the Gophs as a can or should win as well.
I can see 7-5 with them beating TCU, NW, or IA

As to an 11 game ceiling - that is delusional.

 

[corcoran1]

FireDL,

I see where you're coming from and Michigan is as vulnerable as them been since the Rich Rod years...keep in mind nearly every other B10 teams looks at the Gophs as a can or should win as well.
I can see 7-5 with them beating TCU, NW, or IA

As to an 11 game ceiling - that is delusional.

Hate to say it, but until we can stop the run of power teams, 11 is delusional.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Hate to say it, but until we can stop the run of power teams, 11 is delusional.

I think it's highly unlikely, but not delusional. Look at last year: only needed 3 more to get to 11, and we should have beat Syracuse if we didn't beat ourselves, we didn't even bother to show up for Iowa or Michigan, and we were a few big plays from being right in there with Wisconsin or MSU. Obviously, we were also only a few plays from losing some of the ones that we won. If the over/under were at 10.5, I would bet heavily on the under. Ole didn't say he likes our chances to win 11, he said that he expected 6-9, so I interpret him calling 11 a "ceiling" was him listing it as the peak of what our hope could be if everything falls our way. The standard I always use is the Miracle on Ice: I like our chances of winning 11 better than I would have liked America's chances to beat the Russians in 1980, and we all know how that one turned out.

 

[GopherHomer]

I think we have 5 wins in the bag, with the TCU, Northwestern, and Iowa games representing whether we'll have 5,6,7,or 8 wins overall. Obviously, upsets happen (both ways) so this isn't absolute, but I bet this is how it will shake out.

 

[DoubleB]

Yeah i am cautious with predictions. I would like to see the first two games before making bold statements about the rest of the year.
certainly, we are more experienced than last year at this time as i would take the experience Mitch has now compared to the experience that Philip had at the start of last year. Mitch is a year older than Phil was last year so that in itself should be better. But this team will go as far as the QB's take them. unlike what everyone else is thinking it is not just the passing game. Mitch has to make great decisions with the ball and not rely only on himself to run the ball.
the defense has to step it up but all indications are that they are faster and bigger and for the most part not too many real young kids are to be leaned on to help lead this team.

My gut is telling me we will have 8 wins this year but I want to at least see the first two games!

 

[denguegopher]

I think we have 5 wins in the bag, with the TCU, Northwestern, and Iowa games representing whether we'll have 5,6,7,or 8 wins overall. Obviously, upsets happen (both ways) so this isn't absolute, but I bet this is how it will shake out.

This is also how I feel that things will go. Of course if we win the TCU game my expectations will immediately rise. I am already a Kill believer, but if we win 9 or more a fund to build a statue of him should be started. OK, that's a slight exaggeration, but if he does win 9+ (a soph QB and a damn tough schedule) he is on his way to legend status in Minnesota.

 

[highwayman]

I think most of the full season prognostications are fun but, but beyond game 1 mean little. Anyone that would have guessed Minnesota would have been 8-2, 4-2 in the B1G and NW 4-6, 0-6 would have been laughed out of town.

Circumstances change, and season momentum can change on a play.

 

[diehard]

Floor of 8. The only possible signature win is tOSU and it is possible. I would not be surprised at 10-2. If it ends up 6 wins, there's always next year! You all act like last year was a fluke. It wasn't.

Kill knows football and he is pretty dog gone upbeat about this team.

 

[GopherHomer]

Floor of 8. The only possible signature win is tOSU and it is possible. I would not be surprised at 10-2. If it ends up 6 wins, there's always next year! You all act like last year was a fluke. It wasn't.

Kill knows football and he is pretty dog gone upbeat about this team.

Last year was not a fluke, but now you have Nebraska in Lincoln, @TCU instead of NMSU and OSU instead of PSU at home. To ignore the reality of our schedule and call 8 wins the floor, is just asking to be disappointed (or something more nefarious like Reusse would do to set the season up as a failure). 6 wins will be a VERY good season, and anything more will be monumental.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Last year was not a fluke, but now you have Nebraska in Lincoln, @TCU instead of NMSU and OSU instead of PSU at home. To ignore the reality of our schedule and call 8 wins the floor, is just asking to be disappointed (or something more nefarious like Reusse would do to set the season up as a failure). 6 wins will be a VERY good season, and anything more will be monumental.

We have OSU, Purdue, and Illinois instead of MSU, Indiana, and Penn State. Nebraska does go on the road as you mention, but Northwestern comes to TCF.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I don't like making game by game predictions in the preseason because teams change so much on a yearly basis until you see them in action you really don't know what to expect.

But I do agree with those saying the floor is 5 wins and that the ceiling is really tough to gauge. I can't see us finishing any worse then 3-1 in the non-conf portion of the schedule and with the number of players back this year if we can't win 2 conference games something is very wrong and Kill should be fired immediately.

Based on last year a minimum expectation should be 6-6 with a bowl game but realistically if Kill is taking this thing in the right direction we shouldn't be sweating out bowl eligibility at the end of the season.

 

[Ski U Master]

To feel good at the end of the season about the direction we're going I would need 8 wins of any kind OR at least 6 wins that include a victory against Michigan or Wisconsin.

 

[Bayfieldgopher]

I don't like making game by game predictions in the preseason because teams change so much on a yearly basis until you see them in action you really don't know what to expect.

But I do agree with those saying the floor is 5 wins and that the ceiling is really tough to gauge. I can't see us finishing any worse then 3-1 in the non-conf portion of the schedule and with the number of players back this year if we can't win 2 conference games something is very wrong and Kill should be fired immediately.

Based on last year a minimum expectation should be 6-6 with a bowl game but realistically if Kill is taking this thing in the right direction we shouldn't be sweating out bowl eligibility at the end of the season.

Coach Kill will be our coach even if 2014 is a disaster. Kaler has his back. But there will be pressure for a decent 2015 season if we falter in 2014. 2015 schedule is tough as well so Kill has a steep hill to climb. Kinda unfair compared to Wisky's & the Hogeyes schedules.

Predicting W's at this time of the year is fruitless. We aren't a OSU or Bama where you can automatically pen in 10 or 11 regular season W's.

The Goph's have to stay healthy. It's a must.

 

[BJN]

Floor of 8. The only possible signature win is tOSU and it is possible. I would not be surprised at 10-2. If it ends up 6 wins, there's always next year! You all act like last year was a fluke. It wasn't.

Kill knows football and he is pretty dog gone upbeat about this team.

This.

 

[Governor Sibley]

8 wins this year would be pretty darn good.

Don't know what team you knucklheads were following last year.

I watched the one that got throttled by Iowa and needed a near-miracle in Bloomington to avoid a conventional Glen Mason 3-5 record.

I'm just saying.

 

[imthewalrus]

Teams that can run the football killed my 2013 Golden Gophers. Teams that can play more physically weren't really challenged. Recall Michigan, iowa, MSU, wisky and then throw in that Syracuse team. There were some real defensive problems matching up against those teams. The Michigan and iowa games were pretty sad efforts.

Just be real people. I fear this will not be as easy starting with the game in Ann Arbor as some would like to see it be. And where the heck was our defense against iowa last year? Does Clays have THAT problem solved yet? That defensive effort against Michigan and against iowa still troubles me. Hope Coach Clays has spent a LOT of time figuring out what those games were all about and just WHY Michigan and iowa smacked the defenders around so much in 2013. The team revisits Ann Arbor and once again entertains that iowa city bunch in 2014. Those two conference games will certainly be KEY.

 

[imthewalrus]

To feel good at the end of the season about the direction we're going I would need 8 wins of any kind OR at least 6 wins that include a victory against Michigan or Wisconsin.

Beat the stinking badger and end the madness of 10 consecutive border battle losses and the curse wil be broken. There will be all kinds of promise for the future and the Big Ten will once again be present in Minneapolis, MN...

 

[Some Day...Is Coming!]

Eastern Illinois - W
MTSU - W
TCU - L
SJSU - W
Michigan - L
Northwestern - W
Purdue - W
Illinois - L
Iowa - W
Ohio State - L
Nebraska - L
Wisconsin - W

I think 6 to 8 wins (but obviously hope they surprise!). Obviously we should probably win the Illinois game (and might not win the Badger game - but I'd much rather win the Badger game!) 9 wins would be my prediction for a ceiling.

So much of it comes down to the QB position. If Leidner get's injured then we're faced with the X factor, a QB with no experience. It would depend on how Streveler or one of the other QB's could step in and perform. Would be pretty rare for a QB with no D1 experience to step in and play average or better, let's hope we have one of those if the situation arises. The other X factor is obviously the receiving corps. If they step up big time and one or two of the true freshman are dynamite (I think we have a GREAT freshman class of receivers!) that will go a long way to help. But if we have to go to a #2 QB and the receiving corps doesn't step up big time, I think it will look a lot like last season or the season before. Here's to hoping our receiving corps is much improved as well as our QB play.

Really looking forward to how this team performs though. Sounds like they are a really tight knit group that is mentally tough! Question will be how they will respond if Leidner goes down? I know no team with Jerry Kill at the helm will ever give up, that's for darn sure. So at least we know they will play hard every minute of every game, and they do have plenty of talent!!!