Preseason Analysis

Mikie S · Oct 3, 2009

Less than two weeks to midnight madness. Here’s my preseason analysis.
 <o></o>
CENTER: <o></o>
<o></o>
Ralph Sampson III (Soph. 20.8 minutes / 6.3 points / 4.2 rebounds). Had only slightly better overall stats last year than Colt Iverson, but the edge is much bigger if you consider how ineffective he was and the minutes he got as a PF.
 <o></o>
Colt Iverson (Soph 17.7 min / 5.4 pts / 3.6 reb). Colt does a few things better than RSIII (i.e. blocking out) that do not show up in the stats. Here’s my observation, right or wrong: early last season Colt seemed to be on his way to the unofficial Gopher record for most floor burns in a season. But as the season progressed, I don’t remember those hustle plays so much. Perhaps, not so coincidentally, his playing minutes went down as the number of floor burns went down.
 <o></o>
Summary: If they progress at a normal rate, Sampson and Iverson, could both rank among the top half dozen centers in the Big-10, yet it’s possible the Gophers most effective lineup has neither on the floor. Sampson starts.
 <o></o>
 <o></o>
POWER FORWARD:<o></o>
 <o></o>
Trevor Mbakwe (Jr. JuCo transfer). Named by several national sources as their pre-season Big-10 Newcomer-Of-The-Year. Highly athletic and aggressive inside player. Likely to see minutes a center too.
 <o></o>
Royce White (Fr. Consensus #31 recruit). Named by several national sources as their pre-season Big-10 Newcomer-Of-The-Year (where have I heard that before?). Very strong with a solid skill set. Could also see minutes at SF.
 <o></o>
Summary: Most of the guys called to play PF last year are back, but they didn’t play it well. Newcomers Mbakwe & White should make this a strength. White starts for two very different reasons: 1) Rule-of-thumb says that a top-30 freshman will usually be better than a top-5 JuCo. 2) With assault charge baggage hanging over Trevor. I believe he will be declared eligible, but may be held out of the starting lineup as a compromise measure.
 <o></o>
SMALL FORWARD:
 <o></o>
Damian Johnson (Sr, 26.7 min / 9.8 pts / 4.2 reb / 1.6 assists, Big-10 All-Defense) The embodiment of Gopher basketball last season. Great off-the-ball defender, his long arms clog up the passing lanes, but I’m somewhat ambivalent about his perimeter defense. Good garbage scorer but not much of a scoring threat from 12-feet out. Nice passer, but not a very good ball handler. Average rebounder for a SF.
 <o></o>
Paul Carter (Jr, 16.0 min / 5.3 pts / 4.5 reb). Easily the best rebounder from last year. Just as long and more athletic than DJ. He can get his shot just about at will … unfortunately he has problems getting that shot to drop. Showed very good, but undisciplined, potential last year.
 <o></o>
Devron Bostick (Sr, 11.0 min / 4.0 pts / 1.5 reb) My runner up for most disappointing Gopher last year. Had trouble adjusting to major college basketball after being the JuCo POY two years ago. I can actually see his needed scoring punch, combined with a new dedication for defense, getting him into the starting lineup, maybe even becoming the star they lacked last year … or I can see him holding down the end of the bench down.
 <o></o>
Rodney Williams (Fr, Consensus #46 recruit). Freakishly athletic, but really skinny with suspect skills. His upside is on a whole different level than the other SFs here, but how does his skill set match up against the, admittedly uneven, skill sets of the other Gopher SFs? We don’t know because his high school team required him to play, almost exclusively, under the basket and his highlight vids feature slam-after-slam (boring) while showing little of the skills needed to actually star in D-1 college level basketball. I can see him getting major minutes at a very deep position for the Gophers … or being a redshirt candidate.
 <o></o>
Summary:
Obviously DJ is the starter here. But at the same time he may be the guy with the lowest ceiling.
 <o></o>
SHOOTING GUARD:<o></o>
 <o></o>
Laurence Westbrook (Sr, 24.1 min / 12.6 pts / 2.5 reb / 1.4 ast) Hands down the toughest guy on this team. That alone will keep in the starting lineup, because he’s not the most talented (but he is the shortest). He’s a below average ball handler and passer from the SG spot, but he was the only go-to guy on last year’s team. OK from the perimeter and very good as a finisher at the hoop.
 <o></o>
Devoe Joseph (So, 16.7 min / 5.0 pts / 1.8 reb / 1.5 ast). Is this the year for Devoe to shine? He had some growing pains trying to learn the PG position last year, but will be playing, mostly, at his more natural SG position this year.
 <o></o>
Blake Hoffarber (Jr, 22.0 min / 6.4 pts / 2.7 reb / 1.3 ast). The Hoff improved his overall floor game last year, but let’s face it … his value to the Gophers is his three point shooting range and he failed at that last year. It’s really very simple; if he finds his shot he will get plenty of minutes. If not … he will be holding down the end of the bench. He could see some time in a three-guard offense.
 <o></o>
Summary: <o></o>
Last year, Westbrook was the only perimeter threat among the starters. He was also the only starter that could put the ball on the floor and finish constantly at the rim. But he’s just not good enough to be put in that position for a top-20 type team.
 <o></o>
POINT GUARD:
 <o></o>
Al Nolen Jr. (Jr, 26.5 min / 6.5 pts / 3.2 reb / 4.3 ast). Al was my pick for most disappointing Gopher last year. I believe his defense was way over-rated (he was absolutely abused by several Big Ten PG opponents). He couldn’t keep defenses honest with his perimeter shot. He didn’t finish at the rim. He seemingly forgot how to run the offense. He was, however, the only Gopher guard with more assists than turnovers.
 <o></o>
Justin Cobbs (Fr, ESPN’s #38 PG recruit). Rarely is an unheralded freshman more important to a team’s Big Ten title hopes than Cobbs. We are not talking about possible Big Ten Newcomer-of-the-Year (like either White or Mbakwe). We are talking about adequate PG play needed to compete for a conference championship. Sorry folks, but Nolen showed little sign of that when matched against quality Big Ten opponents. I’m “only” asking for a guy who will have more assists than turnovers, a guy who shots well enough to keep defenses honest, a guy who will pass the ball up court to a teammate in better position to make a play, all while playing adequate defense.
 <o></o>
Summary:
33.7%. Few teams can compete getting that type of shooting from their starting point guard. But neither can they expect to be very successful with a point that has more turnovers than assists, like Joseph had last season. Joseph has moved on to SG (although could still be an option if nothing else is working). Nolen will definitely get the first shot, hoping to redeem himself after last year’s performance. Cobbs is standing in the wings to take over if Nolen continues to underperform.
 <o></o>
 <o></o>
CONCLUSION:<o></o>
 <o></o>
I believe the Gophers are still a “Star” away from being elite. Conversely, I’ve never seen a Gopher team where you can point to all 13 scholarship players and say that they could be very good potential starters.
 <o></o>
Early in the season we will see Tubby’s two platoon substitutions.
Starting Five: Sampson, White, Johnson, Westbrook, Nolen
Second Five: Iverson, Mbakwe, Carter, Joseph, Cobbs
 <o></o>
[FONT=&quot]Most effective unit (by mid-season): [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Mbakwe, White, Carter, Westbrook, Cobbs[/FONT]

Weisbrod · Oct 3, 2009

Mikie S said:
Less than two weeks to midnight madness. Here’s my preseason analysis.
 <o></o>
CENTER: <o></o>
<o></o>
Ralph Sampson III (Soph. 20.8 minutes / 6.3 points / 4.2 rebounds). Had only slightly better overall stats last year than Colt Iverson, but the edge is much bigger if you consider how ineffective he was and the minutes he got as a PF.
 <o></o>
Colt Iverson (Soph 17.7 min / 5.4 pts / 3.6 reb). Colt does a few things better than RSIII (i.e. blocking out) that do not show up in the stats. Here’s my observation, right or wrong: early last season Colt seemed to be on his way to the unofficial Gopher record for most floor burns in a season. But as the season progressed, I don’t remember those hustle plays so much. Perhaps, not so coincidentally, his playing minutes went down as the number of floor burns went down.
 <o></o>
Summary: If they progress at a normal rate, Sampson and Iverson, could both rank among the top half dozen centers in the Big-10, yet it’s possible the Gophers most effective lineup has neither on the floor. Sampson starts.
 <o></o>
 <o></o>
POWER FORWARD:<o></o>
 <o></o>
Trevor Mbakwe (Jr. JuCo transfer). Named by several national sources as their pre-season Big-10 Newcomer-Of-The-Year. Highly athletic and aggressive inside player. Likely to see minutes a center too.
 <o></o>
Royce White (Fr. Consensus #31 recruit). Named by several national sources as their pre-season Big-10 Newcomer-Of-The-Year (where have I heard that before?). Very strong with a solid skill set. Could also see minutes at SF.
 <o></o>
Summary: Most of the guys called to play PF last year are back, but they didn’t play it well. Newcomers Mbakwe & White should make this a strength. White starts for two very different reasons: 1) Rule-of-thumb says that a top-30 freshman will usually be better than a top-5 JuCo. 2) With assault charge baggage hanging over Trevor. I believe he will be declared eligible, but may be held out of the starting lineup as a compromise measure.
 <o></o>
SMALL FORWARD:
 <o></o>
Damian Johnson (Sr, 26.7 min / 9.8 pts / 4.2 reb / 1.6 assists, Big-10 All-Defense) The embodiment of Gopher basketball last season. Great off-the-ball defender, his long arms clog up the passing lanes, but I’m somewhat ambivalent about his perimeter defense. Good garbage scorer but not much of a scoring threat from 12-feet out. Nice passer, but not a very good ball handler. Average rebounder for a SF.
 <o></o>
Paul Carter (Jr, 16.0 min / 5.3 pts / 4.5 reb). Easily the best rebounder from last year. Just as long and more athletic than DJ. He can get his shot just about at will … unfortunately he has problems getting that shot to drop. Showed very good, but undisciplined, potential last year.
 <o></o>
Devron Bostick (Sr, 11.0 min / 4.0 pts / 1.5 reb) My runner up for most disappointing Gopher last year. Had trouble adjusting to major college basketball after being the JuCo POY two years ago. I can actually see his needed scoring punch, combined with a new dedication for defense, getting him into the starting lineup, maybe even becoming the star they lacked last year … or I can see him holding down the end of the bench down.
 <o></o>
Rodney Williams (Fr, Consensus #46 recruit). Freakishly athletic, but really skinny with suspect skills. His upside is on a whole different level than the other SFs here, but how does his skill set match up against the, admittedly uneven, skill sets of the other Gopher SFs? We don’t know because his high school team required him to play, almost exclusively, under the basket and his highlight vids feature slam-after-slam (boring) while showing little of the skills needed to actually star in D-1 college level basketball. I can see him getting major minutes at a very deep position for the Gophers … or being a redshirt candidate.
 <o></o>
Summary:
Obviously DJ is the starter here. But at the same time he may be the guy with the lowest ceiling.
 <o></o>
SHOOTING GUARD:<o></o>
 <o></o>
Laurence Westbrook (Sr, 24.1 min / 12.6 pts / 2.5 reb / 1.4 ast) Hands down the toughest guy on this team. That alone will keep in the starting lineup, because he’s not the most talented (but he is the shortest). He’s a below average ball handler and passer from the SG spot, but he was the only go-to guy on last year’s team. OK from the perimeter and very good as a finisher at the hoop.
 <o></o>
Devoe Joseph (So, 16.7 min / 5.0 pts / 1.8 reb / 1.5 ast). Is this the year for Devoe to shine? He had some growing pains trying to learn the PG position last year, but will be playing, mostly, at his more natural SG position this year.
 <o></o>
Blake Hoffarber (Jr, 22.0 min / 6.4 pts / 2.7 reb / 1.3 ast). The Hoff improved his overall floor game last year, but let’s face it … his value to the Gophers is his three point shooting range and he failed at that last year. It’s really very simple; if he finds his shot he will get plenty of minutes. If not … he will be holding down the end of the bench. He could see some time in a three-guard offense.
 <o></o>
Summary: <o></o>
Last year, Westbrook was the only perimeter threat among the starters. He was also the only starter that could put the ball on the floor and finish constantly at the rim. But he’s just not good enough to be put in that position for a top-20 type team.
 <o></o>
POINT GUARD:
 <o></o>
Al Nolen Jr. (Jr, 26.5 min / 6.5 pts / 3.2 reb / 4.3 ast). Al was my pick for most disappointing Gopher last year. I believe his defense was way over-rated (he was absolutely abused by several Big Ten PG opponents). He couldn’t keep defenses honest with his perimeter shot. He didn’t finish at the rim. He seemingly forgot how to run the offense. He was, however, the only Gopher guard with more assists than turnovers.
 <o></o>
Justin Cobbs (Fr, ESPN’s #38 PG recruit). Rarely is an unheralded freshman more important to a team’s Big Ten title hopes than Cobbs. We are not talking about possible Big Ten Newcomer-of-the-Year (like either White or Mbakwe). We are talking about adequate PG play needed to compete for a conference championship. Sorry folks, but Nolen showed little sign of that when matched against quality Big Ten opponents. I’m “only” asking for a guy who will have more assists than turnovers, a guy who shots well enough to keep defenses honest, a guy who will pass the ball up court to a teammate in better position to make a play, all while playing adequate defense.
 <o></o>
Summary:
33.7%. Few teams can compete getting that type of shooting from their starting point guard. But neither can they expect to be very successful with a point that has more turnovers than assists, like Joseph had last season. Joseph has moved on to SG (although could still be an option if nothing else is working). Nolen will definitely get the first shot, hoping to redeem himself after last year’s performance. Cobbs is standing in the wings to take over if Nolen continues to underperform.
 <o></o>
 <o></o>
CONCLUSION:<o></o>
 <o></o>
I believe the Gophers are still a “Star” away from being elite. Conversely, I’ve never seen a Gopher team where you can point to all 13 scholarship players and say that they could be very good potential starters.
 <o></o>
Early in the season we will see Tubby’s two platoon substitutions.
Starting Five: Sampson, White, Johnson, Westbrook, Nolen
Second Five: Iverson, Mbakwe, Carter, Joseph, Cobbs
 <o></o>
[FONT=&quot]Most effective unit (by mid-season): [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Mbakwe, White, Carter, Westbrook, Cobbs[/FONT]

Excellent analysis, but I think Mbakwe needs to start.

bga1 · Oct 3, 2009

Can't wait. The key is -who got better this summer and as you say- we need a star to step up. Good analysis. Practices will be brutal as the competition is great at every position.

ShowinGoldyLove · Oct 3, 2009

Mikie S said:
Early in the season we will see Tubby’s two platoon substitutions.
Starting Five: Sampson, White, Johnson, Westbrook, Nolen
Second Five: Iverson, Mbakwe, Carter, Joseph, Cobbs
 <o></o>
[FONT=&quot]Most effective unit (by mid-season): [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Mbakwe, White, Carter, Westbrook, Cobbs[/FONT]

A guy with the 3rd most minutes on the team last year is the 6th guy off the bench, effectively the 11th man? Interesting...

GoldenBoy13 · Oct 3, 2009

Don't forget Bryant Allen. I am not sure if he will get many minutes but he could be a guy to throw in there to score a couple points off the bench when we need him.

MRJ · Oct 3, 2009

One thing is for sure; there won't be any lack of depth on this team. I can't remember the last Gopher team with as many potentially different lineups as this one. It's kind a nice problem to have after having stock-piled the team over the past two years....

underground629 · Oct 3, 2009

Great analysis, and I agree with pretty much everything. Only things I disagree on are Devron and some lineup stuff. He was definitely the second most disappointing player, but I don't know if agree that his ceiling is quite that high. A lot of defense is effort, but that alone doesn't get the job done. He may have committed himself to defense, but that doesn't mean that he'll be a good defender or that he'll have the fitness. He's pretty good at creating his own shot, but he's also extremely streaky and doesn't have a great shot. He'll be much better than last year (obviously), but I'm still not convinced that he'll get very much playing time. I hope I'm wrong though.

For the starting lineup, I don't know about leaving Trevor out of there. If the accusation was never out there, would you still leave him out? It will be really interesting to see how he divides the PF playing time. Carter looks so good and so bad at times, I have no idea what to expect from him. My biggest disagreement would be that Carter will be more effective than DJ by midseason. DJ will be our biggest impact player again this year in my opinion. Overall all I'd say your evaluation was pretty spot on.

rrjackIII · Oct 4, 2009

Great analysis Mikie. It got me thinking about BBall again.

A couple thoughts.

Mbakwe - if he can play - he plays - without compromise - I just hope the compromise is not a red shirt (unless the AD review merits it)

Hoffber - It is easy to single him out as the odd man out with all the wing players we have. But he does not turn the ball over on a team that seems to have difficulty in that department. Also, if we play a lot of 3 guard offense I think Hoff will be on the floor a lot during those times - even if his shooting still struggles - but I'm hoping for an end to the sophomore struggles in that regard.

From the Barn · Oct 4, 2009

I think Hoffarbar's shooting had a lot to do with the twisted ankle. He never seemed quite right after that. If he stays healthy, he should be a lot better this year.

Friend Of Tubby · Oct 4, 2009

Maybe?

F Johnson 20, Carter 10, Williams or Bostick 10

F Mbakwe 20, White 20

C Sampson 20, Iverson 20

G Westbrook 15, Joseph 15, Hoffarber 10

G Nolen 20, Cobbs 15, Allen 5

And 25+ W. 10 W (OOC). 12 W (B10). 3+ W (B10T and NCAA).

Roster is deep and talented. White and Joseph have "star" potential.

Weisbrod · Oct 4, 2009

This is a thorough analysis, but I don't think Carter is going to be part of the "most effective" line-up at the end of the season. In fact, he might be one of the last people off the bench toward the end of the season. How can you leave Johnson off that most effective group??????????

Weisbrod · Oct 4, 2009

From the Barn said:
I think Hoffarbar's shooting had a lot to do with the twisted ankle. He never seemed quite right after that. If he stays healthy, he should be a lot better this year.

I might be one of the few people who thinks Hoffarber is one of the most important players on the team. He had a down year in 2008, but the Gophers need his shooting. If he's on, he's probably one of the top 2-3 shooters in the Big 10.

MillionMoves · Oct 4, 2009

Mikie S said:
Trevor Mbakwe (Jr. JuCo transfer). Named by several national sources as their pre-season Big-10 Newcomer-Of-The-Year.

Name one NATIONAL source that says that. I stopped reading at that ridiculous statement.

Saber · Oct 4, 2009

There was a Big 10 season preview on ESPN that said Mbakwe would be the newcomer of the year in the Big 10.

Friend Of Tubby · Oct 4, 2009

MillionMoves said:
Name one NATIONAL source that says that. I stopped reading at that ridiculous statement.

Athlon and Lindy's preseasons magazines are out. One of them (forget WHICH one) had Trevor as B10 newcomer of the year.

Weisbrod · Oct 4, 2009

MillionMoves said:
Name one NATIONAL source that says that. I stopped reading at that ridiculous statement.

I'd like yo see you spend time and do an analysis as thorough as the one above. I don't think you have any idea what you are talking about. SEVERAL national sources have Mbakwe as the Newcomer of the Year.
Go away!

Plinnius · Oct 4, 2009

rrjackIII said:
It is easy to single him out as the odd man out with all the wing players we have. But he does not turn the ball over on a team that seems to have difficulty in that department.

He doesn't turn the ball over much because he's a spot shooter that rarely handles the ball. All players that fit Hoffarber's profile have depressed TO rates. Hoffarber's TO rate last season was actually high relative to his 07-08 season and that of other spot shooters.

Plinnius · Oct 4, 2009

Weisbrod said:
This is a thorough analysis, but I don't think Carter is going to be part of the "most effective" line-up at the end of the season. In fact, he might be one of the last people off the bench toward the end of the season.

What do you have against Carter? The guy is a very good rebounder, can create shots for himself, gets to the free throw line and has a high FT%. If he can become just an average shooter and a modestly efficient scorer, he'll be the team's best player by solid margin.

MRJ · Oct 4, 2009

Agree that Carter will get his minutes. He's very athletic, has long arms, is good in trapping defensive situations and as others have said, he's a very good rebounder as well as a reliable free throw shooter. If his scoring comes around, I think he'll play a heckuva lot of minutes.

I would also agree that Hoff is going to be an important part to the puzzle. If he can stretch out defenses by finding his stroke again, we'll be in better shape offensively. Having said that, moving Devoe to the off-guard and letting him play that spot more will also help imo. He showed some flashes of being a really good shooter last year and moving him to his more natural two-slot will allow him to get into more of an offensive rhythm.

underground629 · Oct 4, 2009

From the Barn said:
I think Hoffarbar's shooting had a lot to do with the twisted ankle. He never seemed quite right after that. If he stays healthy, he should be a lot better this year.

I kind of thought that might have been part of the problem last year as well. Although unless his ankle really bothered him the rest of the year, that can only contribute for so long. I kept thinking he would break out of his funk with a huge game and then get back to his old ways for the remainder, but he never did. My other theory was that his fitness wasn't where it needed to be because he seemed to come up short on a ton of shots. Also, freshman year he wasn't really known, so he kind of surprised people with his 3 point shooting, but sophomore year everyone knew that all they really had to watch out for was his 3 point shooting, so they all stayed really close because they knew he wouldn't beat anyone off the dribble. I hope to see some more variation from him on offense. He's one of our few players who makes cuts to the basket for easy layups. It would also be nice if he worked on his ball-handling and could create his own shot. Haven't seen him take many mid-range jumpers either.

underground629 · Oct 4, 2009

Looks pretty reasonable but I can't really imagine that Westbrook and Joseph get equal PT. Joseph showed flashes, but I think he might be a little overhyped going into the year. I think Westbrook is going to have a huge year.

Friend Of Tubby said:
F Johnson 20, Carter 10, Williams or Bostick 10

F Mbakwe 20, White 20

C Sampson 20, Iverson 20

G Westbrook 15, Joseph 15, Hoffarber 10

G Nolen 20, Cobbs 15, Allen 5

And 25+ W. 10 W (OOC). 12 W (B10). 3+ W (B10T and NCAA).

Roster is deep and talented. White and Joseph have "star" potential.

Mikie S · Oct 5, 2009

From ShowGoldyLove

A guy with the 3rd most minutes on the team last year is the 6th guy off the bench, effectively the 11th man? Interesting...

With Devoe moving to SG, somebody out of Westbrook, Hoffarber and Joseph has to be 3rd.

From MillionMoves

Name one NATIONAL source that says that. I stopped reading at that ridiculous statement.

Yes, ESPN was one (and that's enough to satisfy you request). I'm somewhat embarrassed to say I can't find the second reference I remember (It was a columnist I believe) ... but I stand behind my statement.

From Weisbrod

I don't think Carter is going to be part of the "most effective" line-up at the end of the season. In fact, he might be one of the last people off the bench toward the end of the season. How can you leave Johnson off that most effective group??????????

I gotta make at least one bold prediction ... and I'm picking Carter to have a breakthrough year. Note that "most effective" does not imply "starting".

AND I'm somewhat surprised no one took me to task for having Cobbs in my most effective unit.

From the Barn · Oct 5, 2009

underground629 said:
I kind of thought that might have been part of the problem last year as well. Although unless his ankle really bothered him the rest of the year, that can only contribute for so long. I kept thinking he would break out of his funk with a huge game and then get back to his old ways for the remainder, but he never did. My other theory was that his fitness wasn't where it needed to be because he seemed to come up short on a ton of shots. Also, freshman year he wasn't really known, so he kind of surprised people with his 3 point shooting, but sophomore year everyone knew that all they really had to watch out for was his 3 point shooting, so they all stayed really close because they knew he wouldn't beat anyone off the dribble. I hope to see some more variation from him on offense. He's one of our few players who makes cuts to the basket for easy layups. It would also be nice if he worked on his ball-handling and could create his own shot. Haven't seen him take many mid-range jumpers either.

I was thinking more along the lines of picking up some bad habits while shooting with a bum wheel. He has had more than enough time by now to correct it and for the ankle to fully heal, we shall see.

Preseason Analysis

Well-known member

Banned

Well-known member

Active member

Novice

Well-known member

Well-known member

Active member

Active member

Banned

Banned

Banned

Senior Member

Member

Banned

Banned

Active member

Active member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Active member