prepare for disappointment

[Dano564]

You have way too much time on your hands.


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No.
Just organized.

 

[Spoofin]

I will assume that this weak loser take is sarcastic because 80% of the crap you put on here is, but take a spin through the Husker board. Nobody is considering that Martinez will get injured or that any of their defensive standouts (not many to worry about!) will be injured either. They are moving full steam ahead and winning the West. We need to get over this PTSD we suffer, created by losing teams across all MN Sports in the past which have nothing to do with today's Gophers and get on board with this team, no matter the risk.

Best,
A. Homer

I think you may have missed the point. I agree with your post (well, not the 80% statement) - and was responding to a post about the PTSD.


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[Oregon Gopher]

No.
Just organized.

You need to be organized to develop an inane scoring system for unimpressive wins?

Is your compilation of points at the end supposed to imply something? Fleck’s fewer unimpressive win points are a good thing? Personally I hope we earn lots of unimpressive win points then. Silly.


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[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Here is my suggested Unimpressive Wins (Point System):

Single score win (7 points or less) over team ranked end of season 50-74: 1 point
Single score win over team ranked end of season 75-99: 2 points
Single score win over team ranked 100-124: 3 points
Single score win over team ranked 125-149: 4 points
Single score win over team ranked 150-174: 5 points
Single score win over team ranked 175 below: 6 points

Bonus points for games that hit above criteria:
Losing going into 4th quarter: 2 bonus points
Losing with less than 2 minutes left: 3 bonus points
Final margin was 3 or less: 3 bonus points
Home Game: 3 bonus points

Feel free to add other criteria you feel is important.

2016 points:
Rutgers: 5+3+3+3 = 14 points
Oregon St: 2+2+3 = 7 points
Colorado St: 1+3 = 4 points

Total unimpressive win points: 25

Fleck:
2017 Illinois = 4+3 = 7
2018 Indiana = 1+3 = 4 points

So Fleck has less unimpressive win points because he lost to some bad teams instead of beating them by narrow margins?

 

[Gophers_4life]

I’d call that a win.

No one said otherwise. You said easiest possible. With Penn State on there, that's wrong.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Fleck was hired to win and win soon. This was not a major rebuilding job

It's tough for me to understand how so many here get this so wrong. 180degrees wrong.


This *IS* and absolutely has been a "down to the studs" renovation project. Fleck had to rip out the foundation, and pour a new concrete slab.


You just don't know jack squat, if you really think otherwise.

 

[#2Gopher]

One of the worst threads yet. Not bothering to read the majority of them, disappointed in the ones that I've read. Not coming back to read this one.

 

[Oregon Gopher]

It's tough for me to understand how so many here get this so wrong. 180degrees wrong.


This *IS* and absolutely has been a "down to the studs" renovation project. Fleck had to rip out the foundation, and pour a new concrete slab.


You just don't know jack squat, if you really think otherwise.

So CC, Barber, Martin, olson, Durr, TJ, SS, Seth, AW, Devers, Ko etc were ripped out? Yes, PJ had to implant his culture like any coach does, but to insinuate he had nothing to work with is just as ridiculous as those who feel it was a plug and play situation for the coaching position.


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[Gophers_4life]

Here is my suggested Unimpressive Wins (Point System):

Single score win (7 points or less) over team ranked end of season 50-74: 1 point
Single score win over team ranked end of season 75-99: 2 points
Single score win over team ranked 100-124: 3 points
Single score win over team ranked 125-149: 4 points
Single score win over team ranked 150-174: 5 points
Single score win over team ranked 175 below: 6 points

Bonus points for games that hit above criteria:
Losing going into 4th quarter: 2 bonus points
Losing with less than 2 minutes left: 3 bonus points
Final margin was 3 or less: 3 bonus points
Home Game: 3 bonus points

Feel free to add other criteria you feel is important.

2016 points:
Rutgers: 5+3+3+3 = 14 points
Oregon St: 2+2+3 = 7 points
Colorado St: 1+3 = 4 points

Total unimpressive win points: 25

Fleck:
2017 Illinois = 4+3 = 7
2018 Indiana = 1+3 = 4 points

This is fine to me, but not sure what point you're making.


All three seasons 2016-18, the Gophers went 3-0 in non-con, taking care of business. In 2017, Buffalo was a year off from being impressive. In 2018, the Fresno win ended up looking really good.

All three years, there was a "bad" home win to a Big Ten team. If you can ever call a win bad. The 2016 was the worse, with the Rutgers near loss. The 2018 was the "best", as I think Indiana is on the upswing (similar to the Gophers), and that was a sloppy weather game. Though we were up big on them early, then the defense laid an egg and they almost came back.

 

[Oregon Gopher]

One of the worst threads yet. Not bothering to read the majority of them, disappointed in the ones that I've read. Not coming back to read this one.

I’m sure everyone is very sad to read that.[emoji23][emoji6]


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[Gophers_4life]

In the short history of divisional play, has any West team been assigned those 3 as crossover games? Seems like the conference would try to avoid something like that.

What is your point?

The fact is that we play Penn St this season, which is a Wisconsin/Iowa level program at worst. Therefore it's impossible that we got the easiest crossover slate that ever could be assigned by the conference.

 

[Gophers_4life]

It doesn't seem to happen.

MN crossover is MD,
When we have Rutgers, we get PSU.
The year we get Indiana we get Ohio State


Indiana's crossover is Purdue.
Purdue gets Indiana every year.
When they get Rutgers, they also get Michigan
When they get Maryland, they also get Penn St


Rutgers is annual crossover with Illinois
When Illinois plays MD, they also get PSU
When Illinois plays Indiana, they also get OSU.

That's fine and good, but still does not disprove what I said.

People are trying to say it like it's the easiest that could ever happen. Factually incorrect.


So they have to reword their statement, to make it correct.

 

[Oregon Gopher]

What is your point?

The fact is that we play Penn St this season, which is a Wisconsin/Iowa level program at worst. Therefore it's impossible that we got the easiest crossover slate that ever could be assigned by the conference.

He’s simply asking if anyone has ever had Indiana, Rutgers and Maryland as the 3 crossover games- in a response to YOUR post. You really aren’t a bright individual are you- sheesh.


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[Gopherlife]

Well, how else would people set expectations? Comparables: the same way real estate prices are estimated.

It's fine. I understand that speculation can be fun. I think I've seen predictions ranging from 4 wins (or less) to winning the Big Ten (or more), so I was just pointing out that most of the predictions will be wrong, especially pertaining to which specific teams they will defeat or lose to. Carry on.

 

[Gophers_4life]

So CC, Barber, Martin, olson, Durr, TJ, SS, Seth, AW, Devers, Ko etc were ripped out? Yes, PJ had to implant his culture like any coach does, but to insinuate he had nothing to work with is just as ridiculous as those who feel it was a plug and play situation for the coaching position.

P5 is P5.

No matter what, there are always at least a few 3 star players to work with, for ANY new coach that comes in. Even at Rutgers, Wake Forest, etc. It's P5.


So that list doesn't prove that Fleck's year three should be treated as a year four. By the way, Devers is on your list??? Cripes sake. Hope he proves me wrong this year, really hope he does. He didn't do anything the rest of 2016, nor the last two years.


The people trying to sell (as hard as they can) that 2019 should be a 9+ win expectation year, as if it was a year four, are the people pushing that 2017 and 2018 were supposed to be the same as 2016. It's a false narrative, to its core.


Yes, installing the new culture. Yes, like you say, every coach has to do it. However, almost no coaches have as extensive and intensive of a culture as Fleck. And even still, almost every new P5 coach gets his four years to prove his way works or not.

 

[Gophers_4life]

He’s simply asking if anyone has ever had Indiana, Rutgers and Maryland as the 3 crossover games

No team ever haven gotten that yet, doesn't disprove that it would be the easiest possible crossover slate.

It's not my fault that people say the wrong things. It's called logic.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

The more I see people poo poo on a 9 win season as "unimpressive", the more I feel like we should consider 9 wins "not good enough" going forward.

 

[PitinoFan]

In 2016 we had possibly the best secondary in my lifetime for the gophers- Travis, Winfield, and Myrick starting with Hardin getting most of the starts at the other corner.


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That is the one area that gives me pause. Winfield is still here, and this group could end up being just as good if not better. We’ll see.

Unfortunately, Hardin only played in 8 games in 2016, and had to transfer to something called Pittsburgh State.


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[Spoofin]

It's tough for me to understand how so many here get this so wrong. 180degrees wrong.


<b>This *IS* and absolutely has been a "down to the studs" renovation project. Fleck had to rip out the foundation, and pour a new concrete slab.</b>


You just don't know jack squat, if you really think otherwise.

You really would be better off in life if you didn’t assume every narrative you are told is true.

You may want to check your (ridiculous) obsession with “year 4” too - it is going to bite you. List our biggest impact players for year 3 and then cross out those that won’t be back for year 4. Sorry dude, THIS is the year to sink or swim for the Gophers. Based on talent and schedule - not some arbitrary year number.


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[Gophers_4life]

THIS is the year to sink or swim for the Gophers.

You don't actually believe this though. You just like throwing it out on 'Hole, for giggles.

1) you haven't actually made any attempt at any kind of logic or reasoning for why this would be correct
2) you won't put up anything of value to prove that you really do believe it


So I call that you're just making it up.



Imagine if Western Michigan fired Fleck after year three because he only won eight games!!! Only eight!!! The humanity!!!! What a disappointment!!!

 

[Gophers_4life]

List our biggest impact players for year 3 and then cross out those that won’t be back for year 4.

These players will be out of eligibility after the 2019 season:

6 Tyler Johnson WR 6-2 205 Sr. Minneapolis, Minn. / North
12 Tai'yon Devers DL 6-4 245 Sr. Pompano Beach, Fla. / Blanche Ely
21 Kamal Martin LB 6-3 245 Sr. Burnsville, Minn. / Burnsville
41 Thomas Barber LB 6-0 240 Sr. Plymouth, Minn. / Robbinsdale Armstrong
45 Carter Coughlin LB 6-4 245 Sr. Eden Prairie, Minn. / Eden Prairie
1 Rodney Smith RB 5-11 210 R-Sr. Jonesboro, Ga. / Mundy's Mill
4 Shannon Brooks RB 6-0 215 R-Sr. Austell, Ga. / Pickens
6 Chris Williamson DB 6-0 205 R-Sr. Atlanta, Ga. / Gainesville Florida
46 Winston DeLattiboudere DL 6-3 260 R-Sr. Baltimore, Md. / Howard
47 Jacob Herbers P 6-2 215 R-Sr. Battle Creek, Mich. / Lakeview
90 Sam Renner DL 6-4 275 R-Sr. Maple Grove, Minn. / Maple Grove Senior
18 Micah Dew-Treadway DL 6-4 315 Gr. Bolingbrook, Ill. / Bolingbrook Notre Dame
25 Benjamin St-Juste DB 6-3 200 Gr. Rosemere, Quebec / Cegep du Vieux Montreal Michigan
46 Alex Melvin P 6-4 200 Gr. Burnet, Texas / Burnet SMU
97 Michael Tarbutt K 6-0 190 Gr. Grimsby, Ont. / Canisius High School UCONN


K-Mart, Barber, Coughlin could be tougher to replace, but I think we have quite a bit of defensive talent.

I really think Mo Ibrahim will be the leading rusher again this season. Johnson will be an all-Big Ten WR, but we have a lot of talent in that room.


So your point is weak at best.

 

[Spoofin]

1) you haven't actually made any attempt at any kind of logic or reasoning for why this would be correct
2) you won't put up anything of value to prove that you really do believe it

I have. Others have. You ignore.

Right. Bets are the way to prove you mean something. What have you bet that we won’t win 8+?


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[die hard gopher]

I agree I think we make a bigger leap in improvement from year 2 to year 3 then we do in year 3 to year 4.

This year we lost Cashman, Huff, Greene, Weyler, OJ Smith, Royal Silver, Gary Moore, Antonio Shenault, Carpenter and Colton Beebe.

Next we we lose Tyler Johnson, Coughlin, Barber, Kamal, Rodney, Shannon, Chris Williamson, Dellatiboudere, Renner, Witham, Devers, Herbers. Plus there could be another key player or two that transfers or hangs up the cleats.

We definitely lose more next year then we did this year. I do think we will be better in 2020 then we will be this year but the improvement won't be by as much it will be this year.

 

[Gophers_4life]

I have.

Where?? Post numbers.

Bets are the way to prove you mean something.

You claim you believe it, strongly believe actually. I say you're lying.

Prove that you (strongly) believe it. How do you propose to prove it?

What have you bet that we won’t win 8+?

Trying to move to goalposts.

I'm already on record that the 6-8 range is reasonable. People trying to pretend that they have an expectation for 9+ is the line in the sand that is false.

 

[Gophers_4life]

I agree I think we make a bigger leap in improvement from year 2 to year 3 then we do in year 3 to year 4.

Fleck at W Michigan:
year 2 - 8-5
year 3 - 8-5
year 4 - 13-1, NY6 bowl, narrow defeat to Wisconsin

So the history doesn't support this idea.

We definitely lose more next year then we did this year.

But we had/have more talent coming in and are developing more talent to replace them.

Alabama and Clemson lose tons of NFL players every year.

 

[Spoofin]

You claim you believe it, strongly believe actually. I say you're lying.

Prove that you (strongly) believe it. How do you propose to prove it?

I have tried to relax on you as I suspect you have some challenges in life the rest of us don’t. However, this take is so stupid it is really hard to believe I am hearing it.
Why would I need to prove anything to some looney bird on GH.


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[Gophers_4life]

Why would I need to prove anything

I knew it.

You don't really believe it.

It makes sense, no reasonable person -- at this point, without any games being played -- strongly believes (expects) Minnesota to win 9 (let alone more than 9) games this season.

 

[Spoofin]

I knew it.

You don't really believe it.

It makes sense, no reasonable person -- at this point, without any games being played -- strongly believes (expects) Minnesota to win 9 (let alone more than 9) games this season.

Lots of liars on GH. All trying to trick you.
Looney. Bird.


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[die hard gopher]

Fleck at W Michigan:
year 2 - 8-5
year 3 - 8-5
year 4 - 13-1, NY6 bowl, narrow defeat to Wisconsin

So the history doesn't support this idea.




But we had/have more talent coming in and are developing more talent to replace them.

Alabama and Clemson lose tons of NFL players every year.

Yeah, I'm well aware of his records at WMU. Was his 2015 WMU team #4 in the country in returning production on offense and #10 on in returning production on defense like his team is this year? I don't know the answer to that but if had to guess, I'd say no.

In 2002 Jerry Kill wen 4-8 in year 2 and went 10-2 in year 3 at SIU. At NIU in 2009, he went 7-6 and went 11-3 in year 3. Improvement of 6 wins and 4 wins from year two to year 3. At Minnesota he went from 6-7 in year 2 to only 8-5 in year 3, only a 2 game improvement. So saying because Fleck had a big jump in wins from year 3 to year 4 instead of year 2 to to year 3 is not a great reason to predict that will be the case at Minnesota. Every situation is different.

And I understand that he is recruiting better which is why I said I do believe we will improve from year 3 to year 4. I just don't think it will be by as much as we will from year 2 to year 3 due to the fact that we are losing more next year than we are this year. And the 2019 and 2020 classes as of now don't appear to be as good as the 2018 class.

 

[Gophers_4life]

In 2002 Jerry Kill wen 4-8 in year 2 and went 10-2 in year 3 at SIU. At NIU in 2009, he went 7-6 and went 11-3 in year 3. Improvement of 6 wins and 4 wins from year two to year 3. At Minnesota he went from 6-7 in year 2 to only 8-5 in year 3, only a 2 game improvement. So saying because Fleck had a big jump in wins from year 3 to year 4 instead of year 2 to to year 3 is not a great reason to predict that will be the case at Minnesota. Every situation is different.

Reasonable take. You may end up being correct.

I'm simply saying this, from the current viewpoint (preseason, no games played yet): if I'm choosing between Kill at SIU, Kill at NIU, Kill at Minnesota, and Fleck at W Michigan ........ when Fleck is currently our headcoach, and runs a program very differently than Kill ... I'm picking Fleck's WMU history as the best predictor.

I just don't think it will be by as much as we will from year 2 to year 3 due to the fact that we are losing more next year than we are this year. And the 2019 and 2020 classes as of now don't appear to be as good as the 2018 class.

May be slightly lower in ranking ... but doesn't player development matter too?

My counter-point still stands: Alabama and Clemson lose TONS of talent every year. We hope to get to the point where we're losing a lot of really talented players every year. And then we just replace them every new year with equally talented players.



I guess at the end of the day, I just don't understand the urgency that I sense from some posters to have high level success (9+ wins) THIS year.

As if this is the last year they've got to watch the Gophers before they're launched out to space.

It's like, jeez ... can't you just be patient for one more year??? You've come this far.

I would rather have sustained success, and not have that first taste of high level success until 2020, than have 2019 be a flash in the pan. I can't see how anyone would disagree with that.