Post-Week 9 Field of 12 Projection: Indiana & Pitt replace Iowa State & Miami

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SelectionSunday

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Automatic qualifiers/conference leaders are determined by "best conference record", hence 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc. If tied, I first determine auto qualifier using head to head (if applicable), then if no head to head, by most deserving.

FIELD Of 12 PROJECTION (through October 27) -- * denotes automatic qualifier
ACC (2): *Clemson (6-1,5-0), Pitt (7-0, 3-0)

Big Ten (4): *Oregon (8-0, 5-0), Penn State (7-0, 4-0), Indiana (8-0, 5-0), Ohio State (6-1, 3-1)

Big XII (1): *BYU (8-0, 5-0)

Mountain West (1): *Boise State (6-1, 3-0)

SEC (4): *Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0), Georgia (6-1, 4-1), Texas (7-1, 3-1), Tennessee (6-1, 3-1)

Last 2 At-Large: #10 Tennessee, #12 Pitt

First 4 Out (alphabetical): Iowa State (7-0, 4-0), Kansas State (7-1, 4-1), Miami (8-0, 4-0), Notre Dame (7-1)

Other Conference Leaders Under Consideration (4): Army (7-0, 6-0/American), Western Kentucky (5-2, 3-0/Conference USA), Western Michigan (5-3, 4-0/MAC), Louisiana (6-1, 3-0)/Sun Belt)

Movin' In (2): Indiana, Pitt

Movin' Out (2): Iowa State, Miami

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
First Round (Dec. 20 & 21)
#9 Texas @ #8 Ohio State
#12 Pitt @ #5 Georgia

#10 Tennessee @ #7 Indiana
#11 *Boise State @ #6 Penn State

Quarterfinals
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Ohio State/#9 Texas winner (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *Clemson vs. #5 Georgia/#12 Pitt winner (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

#2 *BYU vs. #7 Indiana/#10 Tennessee winner (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)
#3 *Texas A&M vs. #6 Penn State/#11 *Boise State winner (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)

Semifinals
Orange Bowl (Jan. 9)
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10)

National Championship (Jan. 20) -- Atlanta, GA

Power 4 Head to Head Standings (through Oct. 27) -- Notre Dame (Independent), Oregon State (Pac 12), and Washington State (Pac 12) included

1. Notre Dame (5-0)
2. Washington State (2-0)
3. SEC (10-6)
4. ACC (9-12)
5. Big Ten (7-10)
6. Big XII (7-11)
7. Oregon State (1-2)

Week 10 "Key"pers
Louisiana @ Texas State (Tuesday), 6:30 (ESPN2)
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky (Wednesday), 6:30 (ESPN2)
San Diego State @ #11 Boise State (Friday), 7 (FS1)
#8 Ohio State @ #6 Penn State, 11 (FOX)
Duke @ Miami, 11 (ABC)
Air Force @ Army, 11 (CBS)
#1 Oregon @ Michigan, 2:30 (CBS)
#5 Georgia vs. Florida, 2:30 (ABC)
#7 Indiana @ Michigan State, 2:30 (Peacock)
Texas Tech @ Iowa State, 2:30 (ESPN)
Kansas State @ Houston, 2:30 (FOX)
#3 Texas A&M @ South Carolina, 6:30 (ABC)
Louisville @ #4 Clemson, 6:30 (ESPN)
Kentucky @ #10 Tennessee, 6:45 (SECN)
#12 Pitt @ SMU, 7 (ACCN)

Week 10 Head to Head
None
 
Last edited:

Selection, I don't know who you are but you are good at what you do. I check this post every week. As well as the BB forum post for how Gophers can make the dance.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Automatic qualifiers/conference leaders are determined by "best conference record", hence 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc. If tied, I first determine auto qualifier using head to head (if applicable), then if no head to head, by most deserving.

FIELD Of 12 PROJECTION (through October 27) -- * denotes automatic qualifier
ACC (2): *Clemson (6-1,5-0), Pitt (7-0, 3-0)

Big Ten (4): *Oregon (8-0, 5-0), Penn State (7-0, 4-0), Indiana (8-0, 5-0), Ohio State (6-1, 3-1)

Big XII (1): *BYU (8-0, 5-0)

Mountain West (1): *Boise State (6-1, 3-0)

SEC (4): *Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0), Georgia (6-1, 4-1), Texas (7-1, 3-1), Tennessee (6-1, 3-1)

Last 2 At-Large: #10 Tennessee, #12 Pitt

First 4 Out (alphabetical): Iowa State (7-0, 4-0), Kansas State (7-1, 4-1), Miami (8-0, 4-0), Notre Dame (7-1)

Other Conference Leaders Under Consideration (4): Army (7-0, 6-0/American), Western Kentucky (5-2, 3-0/Conference USA), Western Michigan (5-3, 4-0/MAC), Louisiana (6-1, 3-0)/Sun Belt)

Movin' In (2): Indiana, Pitt

Movin' Out (2): Iowa State, Miami

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
First Round (Dec. 20 & 21)
#9 Texas @ #8 Ohio State
#12 Pitt @ #5 Georgia

#10 Tennessee @ #7 Indiana
#11 *Boise State @ #6 Penn State

Quarterfinals
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Ohio State/#9 Texas winner (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *Clemson vs. #5 Georgia/#12 Pitt winner (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

#2 *BYU vs. #7 Indiana/#10 Tennessee winner (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)
#3 *Texas A&M vs. #6 Penn State/#11 *Boise State winner (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)

Semifinals
Orange Bowl (Jan. 9)
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10)

National Championship (Jan. 20) -- Atlanta, GA

Power 4 Head to Head Standings (through Oct. 27) -- Notre Dame (Independent), Oregon State (Pac 12), and Washington State (Pac 12) included

1. Notre Dame (5-0)
2. Washington State (2-0)
3. SEC (10-6)
4. ACC (9-12)
5. Big Ten (7-10)
6. Big XII (7-11)
7. Oregon State (1-2)

Week 10 "Key"pers
Louisiana @ Texas State (Tuesday), 6:30 (ESPN2)
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky (Wednesday), 6:30 (ESPN2)
San Diego State @ #11 Boise State (Friday), 7 (FS1)
#8 Ohio State @ #6 Penn State, 11 (FOX)
Duke @ Miami, 11 (ABC)
Air Force @ Army, 11 (CBS)
#1 Oregon @ Michigan, 2:30 (CBS)
#5 Georgia vs. Florida, 2:30 (ABC)
#7 Indiana @ Michigan State, 2:30 (Peacock)
Texas Tech @ Iowa State, 2:30 (ESPN)
Kansas State @ Houston, 2:30 (FOX)
#3 Texas A&M @ South Carolina, 6:30 (ABC)
Louisville @ #4 Clemson, 6:30 (ESPN)
Kentucky @ #10 Tennessee, 6:45 (SECN)
#12 Pitt @ SMU, 7 (ACCN)

Week 10 Head to Head
None
Click to expand...
Thanks for the update.

Why Piit over Miami?
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Thanks for the update.

Why Piit over Miami?
Click to expand...
Good question. Condensed answer. ...

Miami's opponents have a better record (29-32) than Pitt's (25-31), but for now I'm giving the edge to Pitt because of a better non-conference schedule. Pitt has wins over two decent Big XII opponents, @ 5-3 Cincinnati (28-27) & home vs. 4-4 West Virginia (38-34). Miami has a decent win @ 4-3 Florida (41-17). As another comparison, they've both played 2 dog crap non-conference opponents. The Panthers have wins overs Kent State & Youngstown State, the Hurricanes over Florida A&M & Ball State.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Good question. Condensed answer. ...

Miami's opponents have a better record (29-32) than Pitt's (25-31), but for now I'm giving the edge to Pitt because of a better non-conference schedule. Pitt has wins over two decent Big XII opponents, @ 5-3 Cincinnati (28-27) & home vs. 4-4 West Virginia (38-34). Miami has a decent win @ 4-3 Florida (41-17). As another comparison, they've both played 2 dog crap non-conference opponents. The Panthers have wins overs Kent State & Youngstown State, the Hurricanes over Florida A&M & Ball State.
Click to expand...
Thanks

I asked in part because Miami has the much higher ranking and FWIW, ESPN projected them with an ~80% chance to make it, vs. Pitt’s ~20%
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Thanks

I asked in part because Miami has the much higher ranking and FWIW, ESPN projected them with an ~80% chance to make it, vs. Pitt’s ~20%
Click to expand...
Agree, Miami definitely has the easier path.

My projections are based on what's happened to this point, not predicting future results.
 

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