Post-Week 12 Field of 12 Projection: Georgia & Notre Dame Enter the Field; Boise State the #3 Seed

[SelectionSunday]

Automatic qualifiers/conference leaders are determined by "best conference record", hence 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc. In the event of a tie for the conference lead (Big Ten, SEC), conference tiebreakers were used. Opponents' winning percentage is noted with each team's overall record.

FIELD Of 12 PROJECTION (through November 17) -- * denotes automatic qualifier
ACC (1): *SMU (9-1, .500)

Big Ten (4): *Oregon (11-0, .545), Ohio State (9-1, .535), Indiana (10-0, .402), Penn State (9-1, .475)

Big XII (1): *BYU (9-1, .455)

Independent (1): Notre Dame (9-1, .490)

Mountain West (1): *Boise State (9-1, .524)

SEC (4): *Texas (9-1, .530), Alabama (8-2, .673), Georgia (8-2, .614), Ole Miss (8-2, .510)

Last 2 At-Large: #10 Ole Miss, #12 Notre Dame

First 4 Out (in order of opponents winning %): Colorado (8-2, .574), Texas A&M (8-2, .545), Miami (9-1, .480), Tennessee (8-2, .475)

Movin' In (2): Georgia, Notre Dame

Movin' Out (2): Tennessee, Texas A&M

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
First Round (Dec. 20 & 21)
#9 Georgia @ #8 Penn State
#12 Notre Dame @ #5 Ohio State

#10 Ole Miss @ #7 Indiana
#11 *SMU @ #6 Alabama

Quarterfinals
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Penn State/#9 Georgia winner (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *BYU vs. #5 Ohio State/#12 Notre Dame winner (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

#2 *Texas vs. #7 Indiana/#10 Ole Miss winner (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)
#3 *Boise State vs. #6 Alabama/#11 SMU winner (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)

Semifinals
Orange Bowl (Jan. 9)
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10)

National Championship (Jan. 20) -- Atlanta, GA

Power 5 Head to Head Standings (through Nov. 17) -- Notre Dame (Independent), Oregon State (Pac 12), and Washington State (Pac 12) included

1. Notre Dame (7-0)
2. Washington State (2-0)
3. SEC (10-6)
4. Big Ten (7-10)
5. ACC (9-14)
6. Big XII (7-11)
7. Oregon State (1-2)

Week 13 Power 5 Head to Head
Washington State @ Oregon State

 

[fmlizard]

I'm new to all of this, as we all are. I didn't know a non-P4 conference champion could get a top 4 seed. Is there a formula that puts them there if XYZ happens?

Boise State as the #3 seed with a bye is wild considering the Gophers would probably be 8-2 or 7-3 at worst against their schedule.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I'm new to all of this, as we all are. I didn't know a non-P4 conference champion could get a top 4 seed. Is there a formula that puts them there if XYZ happens?

Boise State as the #3 seed with a bye is wild considering the Gophers would probably be 8-2 or 7-3 at worst against their schedule.

It comes down to that I don't see much difference berween Boise State, BYU, and SMU for the #3 seed. And because BYU won @ SMU, I just decided I like Boise State a little better than BYU at this point.

 

[PMWinSTP]

It comes down to that I don't see much difference berween Boise State, BYU, and SMU for the #3 seed. And because BYU won @ SMU, I just decided I like Boise State a little better than BYU at this point.

Do you feel the committee will do the same?

 

[upnorthkid]

Do you feel the committee will do the same?

I mean they’ll all be in that 6-12 range so yeah I’d expect bsu is the highest as byu lost and bsu was ahead of smu last week
It’s a weird part in how ss has them ranked as the committee has Miami ahead of smu though

 

[Some guy]

Do you feel the committee will do the same?

I am really curious who is ranked where if these are the following teams:

Right now SMU vs Miami is the most likely title game in the ACC but if Clemson ends up in the game, then loses to South Carolina before winning the ACC title game what happens

3 loss Clemson ACC champ
Unbeaten army American champ
1 loss Boise mountain west champ
2 loss big 12 champ

I really want 3 loss Clemson to win the ACC and army to upset Notre dame
would break the whole system in year 1

Would require 3 things:
1)
Miami losing a conference game
Or
SMU losing likely two conference games
+ Clemson winning out in conference but losing the South Carolina game

2) BYU losing one more game guarantees big 12 champ has at least two losses

3) army needs to win out

4) Boise needs to win out

 

[upnorthkid]

I am really curious who is ranked where if these are the following teams:

Right now SMU vs Miami is the most likely title game in the ACC but if Clemson ends up in the game, then loses to South Carolina before winning the ACC title game what happens

3 loss Clemson ACC champ
Unbeaten army American champ
1 loss Boise mountain west champ
2 loss big 12 champ

I really want 3 loss Clemson to win the ACC and army to upset Notre dame
would break the whole system in year 1

Would require 3 things:
1)
Miami losing a conference game
Or
SMU losing likely two conference games
+ Clemson winning out in conference but losing the South Carolina game

2) BYU losing one more game guarantees big 12 champ has at least two losses

3) army needs to win out

4) Boise needs to win out

Why would it break the system? Just changes who gets the byes (probably army given undefeated and the win over nd puts them in over bsu in the 3 and bsu the 4 followed by Clemson and Miami both making it as higher seeds). Just will bounce one of the P5 2-4 seeds or ND

In theory they could bounce the whole b12 but really doubt it

So far only one team is locked in and that’s Oregon.

 

[Some guy]

Why would it break the system? Just changes who gets the byes (probably army given undefeated and the win over nd puts them in over bsu in the 3 and bsu the 4 followed by Clemson and Miami both making it as higher seeds). Just will bounce one of the P5 2-4 seeds or ND

In theory they could bounce the whole b12 but really doubt it

So far only one team is locked in and that’s Oregon.

If the whole big 12 gets bounced it would be incredibly hilarious and it wouldn’t break the system, but the big 12 being out would break what people thought the system would end up

 

[MisterGopher]

If the whole big 12 gets bounced it would be incredibly hilarious and it wouldn’t break the system, but the big 12 being out would break what people thought the system would end up

The Athletic considers that scenario in their chaos scenarios

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5920684/2024/11/14/college-football-playoff-chaos-scenarios-brackets?source=user-shared-article

 

[Thomasthetank]

I absolutely bet the SEC CFP mafia makes sure an SEC team doesn't have to play a northern team outside in the opening round. They will cheat the numbers to make sure Georgia doesn't play at State College

 

[Some guy]

I absolutely bet the SEC CFP mafia makes sure an SEC team doesn't have to play a northern team outside in the opening round. They will cheat the numbers to make sure Georgia doesn't play at State College

That’s good for Penn state too

But it’s going to be hard to rig it with an SEC team not going north.
It would take the 4 non SEC champ SEC teams making it all being seeded essentially 5-8

Just don’t see it happening

 

[Full Speed Ahead]

Just FYI. Army and Tulane are now locked for the AAC championship game. I agree it would be great if Army beats ND, but that's a tall order, I don't think it will happen. I also think Tulane will beat Army as well.

 

[upnorthkid]

That’s good for Penn state too

But it’s going to be hard to rig it with an SEC team not going north.
It would take the 4 non SEC champ SEC teams making it all being seeded essentially 5-8

Just don’t see it happening

yep there's almost no statistical way the SEC doesn't have one team traveling. however they may be traveling to play each other and you end up with someone like Boise or Clemson if they win the ACC and Boise squeaks in in a bye coming up north instead (this is the only way I could really see them manipulate the numbers to make the SEC guaranteed to have a couple teams in the quarters plus not have to travel to cold weather)

 

[Some guy]

yep there's almost no statistical way the SEC doesn't have one team traveling. however they may be traveling to play each other and you end up with someone like Boise or Clemson if they win the ACC and Boise squeaks in in a bye coming up north instead (this is the only way I could really see them manipulate the numbers to make the SEC guaranteed to have a couple teams in the quarters plus not have to travel to cold weather)

Barring major upsets, teams 5-12 are going to consist of notre dame, 3 big ten teams, 3-4 SEC teams, one conference champ.

Almost no way an SEC team doesn’t have to play a game north of Missouri

 

[upnorthkid]

Barring major upsets, teams 5-12 are going to consist of notre dame, 3 big ten teams, 3-4 SEC teams, one conference champ.

Almost no way an SEC team doesn’t have to play a game north of Missouri

im more going with one of the ACC or B12 manage to sneak in a 2nd team. I'm anticipating Texas beat A&M and then there's 4-5 SEC teams tied with 2 losses in 2nd and I don't think you can punish whoever makes the CC game even if they lose. The tiebreakers are going to get real messy there and think you get a total of 4 SEC teams. One may have to travel but I'm guessing it ends up being SEC-SEC or they go to the lowest ranked CC team and the other 2 are hosting.

We'll see, but there's still a reasonable number of h2h games left that will shuffle things quite a bit (like what do you do with Indiana if they lose to OSU given how weak their schedule is otherwise). Big Ten is weird this year and PSU needs to hope that Illinois wins out or it's going to be a weird conversation about them as well with no wins over ranked teams

 

[Some guy]

im more going with one of the ACC or B12 manage to sneak in a 2nd team. I'm anticipating Texas beat A&M and then there's 4-5 SEC teams tied with 2 losses in 2nd and I don't think you can punish whoever makes the CC game even if they lose. The tiebreakers are going to get real messy there and think you get a total of 4 SEC teams. One may have to travel but I'm guessing it ends up being SEC-SEC or they go to the lowest ranked CC team and the other 2 are hosting.

We'll see, but there's still a reasonable number of h2h games left that will shuffle things quite a bit (like what do you do with Indiana if they lose to OSU given how weak their schedule is otherwise). Big Ten is weird this year and PSU needs to hope that Illinois wins out or it's going to be a weird conversation about them as well with no wins over ranked teams

I think Indiana and Penn state had a lot more to worry about before some ACC and Big 12 upsets last week.

 

[60's Guy]

Everybody sleeping on Deion and the Buffs...win out and they get a bye as the conference champs.

 

[upnorthkid]

Everybody sleeping on Deion and the Buffs...win out and they get a bye as the conference champs.

I don’t think anyone is sleeping on them. Literally they don’t stop talking about them every day on espn

 

[60's Guy]

I don’t think anyone is sleeping on them. Literally they don’t stop talking about them every day on espn

Not mentioned in this post....agree that Colorado has no shortage of publicity nationally.
But, not many see/saw them as a playoff team until this past weekend.

 

[upnorthkid]

Not mentioned in this post....agree that Colorado has no shortage of publicity nationally.
But, not many see/saw them as a playoff team until this past weekend.

#1 in the 1st 4 out. Probably moreso to do with its seeming less likely the B12 gets two teams in then their overall chances. They won’t get in as an at large with 3 losses

 

[SelectionSunday]

Do you feel the committee will do the same?

No.

They'll be apprehensive about putting a Group of 5 champion ahead of a P4 champion.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I mean they’ll all be in that 6-12 range so yeah I’d expect bsu is the highest as byu lost and bsu was ahead of smu last week
It’s a weird part in how ss has them ranked as the committee has Miami ahead of smu though

I have SMU because they're the actual ACC leader at this point, not Miami. The CFP just goes by current committee rankings instead of who's leading the conferences.

 

[upnorthkid]

I have SMU because they're the actual ACC leader at this point, not Miami. The CFP just goes by current committe rankings instead of who's leading the conferences.

Yeah I guess to be fair I shouldn’t have said yours are weird rather the committees are as it is not how it’ll actually be

 

[60's Guy]

#1 in the 1st 4 out. Probably moreso to do with its seeming less likely the B12 gets two teams in then their overall chances. They won’t get in as an at large with 3 losses

100% and no matter what...pretty unlikely Big 12 gets two teams. Bottom line: only way Colorado gets in is to win the conference title game. And whoever wins the title game...likely only Big 12 team. (crazy stuff could happen, but...)

 

[SelectionSunday]

Not mentioned in this post....agree that Colorado has no shortage of publicity nationally.
But, not many see/saw them as a playoff team until this past weekend.

No question Colorado will be dangerous if they get in, but I don't talk about them because the only way they're getting in is getting the automatic bid. 10-3 with a loss in the Big XII title game won't be enough. Not likely, but if there is a 3-loss at-large, it's only coming from the SEC.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Yeah I guess to be fair I shouldn’t have said yours are weird rather the committees are as it is not how it’ll actually be

No offense taken.

 

[SelectionSunday]

If 7-3 Missouri and/or 6-4 LSU are still ranked after losing last week, we'll 100% know the fix is in by the committee to prop up other SEC teams in every way they can.

Despite no (current) top 25 wins I think both Texas and Penn State are shoo-ins if they win out, but if either one finishes 10-2 they shouldn't be. 2 losses & they've earned the right to have sweaty palms on Selection Sunday.

And if I'm Indiana, Hoosiers need to understand that the committee is itching to put 5 SEC teams + Golden Boy Notre Dame in the bracket. At very minimum, take Ohio State to the wire. ... do not get blown out. 11-1 & geting boat-raced by the Buckeyes is all it might take for the committee to toss the Hoosiers aside.

 

[upnorthkid]

If 7-3 Missouri and/or 6-4 LSU are still ranked after losing last week, we'll 100% know the fix is in by the committee to prop up other SEC teams in every way they can.

In my opinion both Texas and Penn State are shoo-ins if they win out, but if either one finishes 10-2 they shouldn't be. 2 losses & they've earned the right to have sweaty palms on Selection Sunday.

And if I'm Indiana, Hoosiers need to understand that the committee is itching to put 5 SEC teams + Golden Boy Notre Dame in the bracket. At very minimum, take Ohio State to the wire. ... do not get blown out. 11-1 & geting boat-raced by the Buckeyes is all the committee needs to toss the Hoosiers aside.

Agreed 100%. They’re going to cite ranked wins which is why they’re keeping middling sec teams in who have only beaten each other. Tale as old as time

 

[PMWinSTP]

No.

They'll be apprehensive about putting a Group of 5 champion ahead of a P4 champion.

Yeah, I was thinking the same...does create some chaos down the stretch here, which makes it all the more interesting to me.

 

[PMWinSTP]

If 7-3 Missouri and/or 6-4 LSU are still ranked after losing last week, we'll 100% know the fix is in by the committee to prop up other SEC teams in every way they can.

Despite no (current) top 25 wins I think both Texas and Penn State are shoo-ins if they win out, but if either one finishes 10-2 they shouldn't be. 2 losses & they've earned the right to have sweaty palms on Selection Sunday.

And if I'm Indiana, Hoosiers need to understand that the committee is itching to put 5 SEC teams + Golden Boy Notre Dame in the bracket. At very minimum, take Ohio State to the wire. ... do not get blown out. 11-1 & geting boat-raced by the Buckeyes is all it might take for the committee to toss the Hoosiers aside.

They both dropped out of the Coaches Poll.